I am Not Recommending this bet

[t3a]

NBA Futures NBA Series Prices (Best of 7) Team to win series? San Antonio vs. Phoenix

613) San Antonio Spurs -1012

Risking 30,000.00 to Win 2,964.43 USD

this is roughly equivalent to betting 30K on a horse to show and getting $2.20 (would pay you $3K) instead of $2.10 (would pay you $1.5K)

I think the Spurs are a safer bet, since they can't get disqualified or snap a leg off

as I said, not recommending this even if you could find a book that wouldn't have a limit. Last night before the Suns won it was around -3300

 

[Camocazie]

did you actually make that wager?

 

[CHOPTALK]

Just think if you would have made that bet in the Yankee series last year.

 

[Camocazie]

if i was going to make that bet,i would do it after game 5 and hope for suns win....maybe you might get like -500

 

[t3a]

did you actually make that wager?

no. But I know people who have done that or more on a horse race where they are getting -2000

For a spot where no NBA team in the previous 73 has ever failed it looks kind of short doesn't it? Spurs were -1200 vs Sonics in the previous round, so -1200 to get 4 wins, yet 'only' -1000 to get one more win vs the Suns?

.

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

If you were tempted to make this bet, I'd look more into the following line at 5 dimes as the price is much lower & the odds are in your favor considering past history


Spurs -1.5 series games won -551


So you are pretty much risking -551 that it won't go to a game 7.

 

[t3a]

ok, here is some more NBA 7 game series history:

All Visiting teams in game 5 when leading 3-1:
15-33 (.313) .... series 43-5 (.896)
Semis only visiting teams, game 5, 3-1 lead:
5-11 (.313)....series 14-2 (.875)

so based on that, and the fact that Suns have not lost 3 straight home games this year, chances are they can win this, force game 6 and Spurs will be available at around -260 then at home

I think the whole world will be on the Suns in game 5 though, I may just watch it and if I get the chance bet game 6

 

[dsong]

My math shows that this is actually a positive expectation wager, with a Kelly % of 3%.

Go for it, if you like.

 

[bismarc]

I think the odds is abt right. If we are using the bookies line for the games we can use their percentage for this bet. 2lose the bet Phoenix needs 2 win 3 straight games.

My calculations from bookies line in game 5 is Phoenix 57% chance 2win. In game 6 they would have approx 32% chance (after looking at the odds for game 3 n 4) and in game 7 they would have approx 57% again.

0.57 x 0.32 x 57 = approx. 10% for Phoenix to win 3 straight games. That means San Antonio have abt 90% to win the Best of 7

If u want to make a bet -1000 u need more than 90% chance of winning the bet 2 have positive expectations.

Even if the bookies line is off 1-2% it would still be to close to risk any money on this to the price of -1000, the Return of Investment would be to low.

But hey if u want some action it's probably a safe bet, even though I would never touch it.

 

[Dante]

Just think if you would have made that bet in the Yankee series last year.

yeah that is a scary thought:monsters-

good luck t3a