I am not a tout -- DAY #1

[MadCapper]

I am not a tout, but I have a system for the NHL that has been producing winners at a feverish pace so far this year:

It's all documented. So if somone wants to check the legitimacy after I reveal it, its all there for you.

December: 28-11-3
November: 39-21-5
October: 32-25-7 (but was still very early in season)

There could be a few system plays on tonight's slate.

I will share the system with some folks if it continues to produce winners.

I will also share a play with you from the system tonight, as soon as I confirm that it falls within.

Disclaimer:
Remember, this system may produce winners at a great percentage, but it's not flawless, so don't kill me if the play I share with you tonight doesn't cash in.


-MC

 

[MadCapper]

Montreal -130

 

[SportSavant]

hey mad, if you are not a tout can you share with us some of the minor details in regards to your system....

 

[SportSavant]

hey mad, if you are not a tout can you share with us some of the minor details in regards to your system....

 

[MadCapper]

Cashed it.

System went 4-1 today.

December: 32-12-3
November: 39-21-5
October: 32-25-7 (but was still very early in season)

 

[BlackampGold]

MC - Congrats on your win. Are you playing every play of the system or just the strongest, ie. Montreal? I only ask b/c you stated the system went 4-1 but you posted Montreal only. I have a system I am using that has been very profitable. Would love to see what your's is spitting out and see if we get many common plays. All the best MC!

 

[MadCapper]

B & G,
I am still testing this system. I play all the system plays but only share the play I think is the strongest.
I will test it out for another month before revealing it.

-MC

 

[BlackampGold]

Looks like a good system so far. Good luck.

 

[NOLIMITHOLDEM]

Let me tell you about my bs "system" that isnt a system really its math.

i look at the win loss tie records.
if a team's win+tie record is higher than another teams win record AND they are getting +.5, i take them. I usually find 2-3 plays a day and I am up over 20 units on the year.

Does anyone have an opinion on that? I dont analyze players, offense, defense... just math.
Has anyone tried this? Will it go the other way later in the season?

 

[NOLIMITHOLDEM]

examples are minnesota and phoenix last night.
Phoenix and nashville have been good for me in the last month.

 

[MadCapper]

Sure, thats smart.

To take an underodg with a better record then a favorite getting a 1/2 a point is a good idea. Whats the data on that though?


-MC

 

[ExpertPicks]

I would be so bold as to call it a system, and not just math. I think that as long as you continue to play the same system for whole season (or block of the season) you will be fine. So long as the trend holds up. I would be very carefull as the season enters the playoffs though. In the playoffs I have never seen a sytem do better than it did durring the season.

The sytem picks that I started posting earlier this week are based entirely on math. The math is quite a bit more complicated than your "system." I use a combination of power ratings, GAA, and GFA for both home, away, and overall scenarios.

The picks I have been posting are all of the selections for the day, according to the system's choices. I do not bet every pick, though I always start with my mathimatical approach and work from there. When it comes down to it, I see the goalies performance as the only real influence other than luck!

BTW - What happens to your system if you use the ATS records in stead of SU records. Does your sytem improve or get worse... Just curious?

 

[NOLIMITHOLDEM]

hit both again. 5-0 since I started posting them here.

A combination of the ATS and SU records would probably reduce the number of plays, but I would estimate the winning percent would go up another 5-10 percent. Do you have a list of the ATS records for NHL? I will add those in also.

chuckmyers@msn.com

 

[NOLIMITHOLDEM]

nashville +.5 -110
phoenix +.5 +150

tonight

 

[ExpertPicks]

I don't have one... But I'm sure someone here does.

The reason I asked is because I also just started posting a new system's picks on this forum (+4.10 in 5 days), and if I would have used the ML for every pick my units would be higher right now. I think though it is because my system has hit a lot of dogs so far. Just wondering if it was the same for you.

I just find it hard to eat all the chalk on a lot of the favs, so I stick the spread.

Good Luck Today

 

[NOLIMITHOLDEM]

Well. My underdogs hit again..now 7-0 since I started posting here. Took Col late too since I noticed the line last night but didnt document it ahead so i wont count it.
Lets keep rolling madcapper!

 

[kevinla]

Hey guys, a suggestion to improve winning percentage may be to eliminate betting on teams playing on back-to-back nights and those using backup goaltenders. Its tough to figure out when backup goaltenders are playing though.

Any picks would be appreciated.


No Limit:

With regards to your system, is the W+L actually adding up the Wins and Losses or is it points in the standings?

 

[kevinla]

No Limit:

I meant Wins and Ties. And do you factor in overtime losses, which count as a point in the standings?

 

[NOLIMITHOLDEM]

as you can see i went against my own sys sunday and missed both.

I add wins+ties if they are getting +.5
against straight wins for the favorite.

If I have a team, say a phoenix or nashville who have alot of ties and medium winxs, I always take them when they get+5

basic.. but, its been profitable, you dont have to lay alot of chalk either.

 

[PeteRoseJR]

IS THERE A RELIABLE WEBSITE TO FIND OUT WHERE TO FIND OUT WHOS STARTING IN NET?



BRAD