I am huge (67-74 ats ytd 48%) bowl week 1 picks and analysis

[iamhuge]

Here are my picks for the poop week of the college bowl season. Analysis to follow. Best of luck to all:

APP ST / NORTH TEXAS OVER 65.5
Tulane -2.5 Nevada
UCF / BYU OVER 71.5
LA TECH / GA SOUTHERN OVER 50.5
Memphis -9.5 FAU
Houston -12.5 Hawaii
Buffalo -3.5 Marshall
Liberty +6.5 Coastal Carolina
UAB -3.5 South Carolina
Louisiana Lafayette -13.5 UTSA
Western Kentucky +4.5 Georgia State

 

[iamhuge]

APP ST / NORTH TEXAS OVER 65.5

North Texas State defense is a complete shit show. Average points scored against them this season is 41.5. They allowed 443 yards rushing against UTSA. Charlotte and UTSA rocked them for 49 points. They stop no one. The Mean Green will be the worst team that the Mountaineers have played all year and App State has showed little mercy against the lesser half of their schedule, averaging about 40 points per game against them. It’s very likely we’ll see them light up North Texas for 49 in their last game of the season.

The Mean Green plays the up tempo game, so they don’t hold the ball long. They have shown the ability to hit big plays against tired defenses. The passing game was the best in Conference USA, and they like to chuck it downfield. It’s likely that Appalachian State has not trained very hard for this game, knowing they will win it easily. Expect a very sloppy 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter that will look like an NBA preseason game with zero defense. North Texas’ lowest offensive output this season was 21 points against Charlotte so if they can do at least that against a decent Mountaineer defense, this will be an easy cover. Appalachian State gets up big and then trades touchdowns in the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter for the OVER.

 

[varkeyboy]

No star WR....
No QB....
For Mean Green...
Looks like a disaster waiting to happen for their offense.

 

[iamhuge]

Tulane -2.5 Nevada

If you look at the overall record, one would think that these teams are fairly evenly match. What is amiss is that Tulane has been fantastic over their last 5 games, with a record of 4-1 (with the one loss in OT) and scoring 35 points per game. Their last 3 opponents (Army, Tulsa and Memphis) are all better than Nevada is. Nevada is 3-2 in their last 5 games but their competition has not been nearly as stiff and they have only averaged 26 points per game. In fact, Nevada has not won a game against a team with a winning record all season.

The weather will be cold and windy up in Idaho, favoring the team that likes to run the ball. That would be Tulane, which is ranked 14[SUP]th[/SUP] in the country with 214 ypg on the ground. Nevada likes to move the ball through the air (3:2 ratio) and that won’t bode well in windy conditions, especially since their top 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] down receiver, Stovall, will be out for the game. Combine that with Tulane’s superlative pass rushing and it could be very difficult for Nevada to control the game at all. The Green Wave will run the ball to an old school bowl victory.

 

[iamhuge]

No star WR....
No QB....
For Mean Green...
Looks like a disaster waiting to happen for their offense.

Very possible...but that would mean more possessions for App State. Not looking for a lot of points contributed by North Texas here and I expect a very loosely defended game with no tackling.

 

[iamhuge]

Total goes OVER! 1-0 for the week

 

[iamhuge]

UCF / BYU OVER 71.5

BYU is averaging 43 points per game. UCF is one of the worst defensive teams they will have faced all year, giving up 31 points per game. It’s a slam dunk that BYU will score at least 45 points. Zach Wilson ranks in the top five nationally in passing touchdowns, passing yards per attempt, passing efficiency, completion percentage, passing yards and total points responsible for. He’s gonna be ringing the bell tonight.

UCF is averaging 44 points this year, playing their fast up tempo style. Their lowest point totals were against Tulsa and Cincinnati, teams with much tougher defenses than BYU has. They notched 26 against Tulsa and 33 against Cincinnati which was the most points scored on the Bearcats all year and near the most that Tulsa gave up. So it’s clear that UCF will be able to post 35 against BYU.

BYU will have the luxury of being able to score by land or by air, and move the ball in chunks while doing so. BYU will be up by at least 2 scores for most of the game and then we’ll see softer defenses and teams trading touchdowns. It will be a really high scoring 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half and a perfect night for football, without any weather influence. I like 80 points scored in this game which takes the total OVER.

 

[iamhuge]

LA TECH / GA SOUTHERN OVER 50.5

As a 6 point favorite and an O/U line of 50.5, this means that the oddsmakers are predicting a final score of 28 – 22 in favor or GA Southern. If you break this down over the season, it makes the OVER an easy play. The Eagles have a very ponderous offense, and they have only exceeded the 28 point offense requirement in 3 of 12 games. However their defense has given up more than 22 points in 7 of their 12 games.

LA Tech plays more wide open, and this will be the key to the game going over. The Bulldogs have scored more than 22 points in 5 of their 9 games and have given up more than 28 points in 7 of their 9 games. That means on 42 data points, the total would be exceeded 22 times. That’s 52% meaning that the play is weighted to the OVER.

LA Tech has had trouble stopping the run all year, being stomped for 185 yards per game. That won’t cut it against Georgia Southern who will be busting long runs from their triple option all game long. I would look for LA Tech to mix in some interceptions with a few big plays which will pad the offenses for both sides. Not to be outdone, Georgia Southern could be playing with their 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] string QB and without their top running backs. The triple option scheme will continue, but expect the ball to hit the turf a few times, giving LA TECH a short field. The game is going to be played in the Superdome meaning weather conditions will be perfect as well as a fast track. Even more reason why the game is an OVER.

 

[Knightrofins]

UCF / BYU OVER 71.5

BYU is averaging 43 points per game. UCF is one of the worst defensive teams they will have faced all year, giving up 31 points per game. It’s a slam dunk that BYU will score at least 45 points. Zach Wilson ranks in the top five nationally in passing touchdowns, passing yards per attempt, passing efficiency, completion percentage, passing yards and total points responsible for. He’s gonna be ringing the bell tonight.

UCF is averaging 44 points this year, playing their fast up tempo style. Their lowest point totals were against Tulsa and Cincinnati, teams with much tougher defenses than BYU has. They notched 26 against Tulsa and 33 against Cincinnati which was the most points scored on the Bearcats all year and near the most that Tulsa gave up. So it’s clear that UCF will be able to post 35 against BYU.

BYU will have the luxury of being able to score by land or by air, and move the ball in chunks while doing so. BYU will be up by at least 2 scores for most of the game and then we’ll see softer defenses and teams trading touchdowns. It will be a really high scoring 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half and a perfect night for football, without any weather influence. I like 80 points scored in this game which takes the total OVER.

An average UCF game last at least a good 4 hours.

The over went up a good 5 points

Going to be nice 70 degree weather tonight in South Florida with low Humidity for the Mormons

Funny how the UCF pre party tonight is at the Boca Raton Hooters. Something tells me that we wont see any BYU fans over there

 

[varkeyboy]

UCF / BYU OVER 71.5

BYU is averaging 43 points per game. UCF is one of the worst defensive teams they will have faced all year, giving up 31 points per game. It’s a slam dunk that BYU will score at least 45 points. Zach Wilson ranks in the top five nationally in passing touchdowns, passing yards per attempt, passing efficiency, completion percentage, passing yards and total points responsible for. He’s gonna be ringing the bell tonight.

UCF is averaging 44 points this year, playing their fast up tempo style. Their lowest point totals were against Tulsa and Cincinnati, teams with much tougher defenses than BYU has. They notched 26 against Tulsa and 33 against Cincinnati which was the most points scored on the Bearcats all year and near the most that Tulsa gave up. So it’s clear that UCF will be able to post 35 against BYU.

BYU will have the luxury of being able to score by land or by air, and move the ball in chunks while doing so. BYU will be up by at least 2 scores for most of the game and then we’ll see softer defenses and teams trading touchdowns. It will be a really high scoring 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half and a perfect night for football, without any weather influence. I like 80 points scored in this game which takes the total OVER.

78.5 now!

Funny thing is, I still think it goes over.

 

[iamhuge]

Tulane plays like ass...1-1 on the week

 

[iamhuge]

This game is OVER! BYU does all the work....2-1 on the week

 

[Coaster]

This game is OVER! BYU does all the work....2-1 on the week

Great early pick...go late and you lose!

 

[iamhuge]

Memphis -9.5 FAU

Florida Atlantic looked like one of the toughest teams in Conference USA early in the season. Though their offense was never very good, their defense was playing really tough. Since Thanksgiving, the Owls have been worse than terrible. Memphis is going to be the best team they have played all year, yet in their last two games they lost badly to Georgia Southern (20-3) and then in their most recent game they got beaten 45-31 by Southern Siss, one of the worst teams in college football. Giving up 45 points in that game tells me that FAU, and their defense, is irreparably broken. This is a team that totally does not want to play this game.

Memphis, on the other hand, has played 6 teams that are rated higher than FAU. They have never had a problem scoring points – averaging 32 points per game. Senior quarterback Brady White had a really good season with 3,096 yards passing and 28 touchdowns with nine interceptions. He’s going to want to be really good in his last game. It’s likely the Tigers will get ahead in this game and FAU will really struggle to keep up with their impotent attack. There is no fear of a backdoor cover. Laying the wood with the Tigers against an FAU team that wants to limp home.

 

[varkeyboy]

Agree on Memphis! They roll.

 

[iamhuge]

LA Tech offense, especially their QB, doesn't show up...tough to hit an over when one team scores 3 points. 2-2 on the week

 

[iamhuge]

Memphis covers, but it was a lot closer than it should have been....3-2 on the week

 

[iamhuge]

Houston -12.5 Hawaii

In hindsight, to be perfectly honest. This might be a dumb pick. It’s way too many points, if you look at it objectively. However – the line of thinking goes that the team that wants to be here will probably play the hardest. When Hawaii no shows for a game, they get cranked – in their 4 losses, they have not been competitive – losing by an average of 17 points. Houston has only won 3 games, but their average margin of victory in those games was 23 points.

Hawaii has a long road to hoe, coming across the Pacific to sit in a hotel in New Mexico for a few days with box lunches and video games to keep them busy. Usually the Rainbows are in the Aloha Bowl and it’s their opponents who need to make the trip. Hawaii only had 2 road games this year and they were 1-2 in those games (losing both by 24 points). Since losing to Cincinnati (everyone loses to Cincinnati), the Cougars put up 56 points on South Florida and they dropped a close one to an excellent Memphis team. There’s little doubt Houston is the better team….if Hawaii no shows, it’s an easy cover. Laying the wood on Cougar High.

 

[iamhuge]

Houston...we had a problem...3-3 on the week

 

[iamhuge]

Buffalo -3.5 Marshall

This is a very interesting game. We have two teams that were in the midst of a mammoth season. Both teams successfully fudged their duds to finish. Marshall inexplicably ruined their undefeated campaign by throwing 5 interceptions and getting shutout 20-0 by Rice. Their act of redemption fell flat when they squared up against a tough UAB team in the Conference USA championship and, once again, could not get their offense going in a 22-13 loss. Regardless, the Thundering Herd comes into today’s game with a very good defense, yielding only 12.6 points per game. The only caveat is that their top tackler has opted out of the game. Nice teammate.

The Buffalo Bulls have been an offensive juggernaut all season and they did it old school. Incredibly their run based offense has generated 48 points per game. They completely failed in the MAC championship against Ball State when the Cardinals stuffed the box and dared them to throw. The game essentially ended when a Ball State player made a dirty gator roll tackle against Jaret Patterson, the nation’s best running back. Patterson has said he’s going to play today in Montgomery, but if he is still injured there is no way Buffalo is going to win. He really is the key to Buffalo’s offense, as he has the potential to go the distance every time he touches the ball.

Buffalo’s defense is not very good at all, but that doesn’t matter much because the wheels have come off of Marshall’s offense. In their last two games, they have looked like a middle school team trying to pass the ball on a dead end street. Every pass thrown hits a car or ends up on the sidewalk. Their best running back, Knox, has opted out of the game. There isn’t really anything Marshall can do to generate points.

This old school MAC matchup is going to boil down to the legs of Patterson. If he gets the needle before the game, he’s going to do some great things for the Bulls. If he comes out limping, I’m going to be all faceful. His backup, Kevin Marks, is averaging 7.7 yards per carry – so a lot of Patterson’s success is coming from the O-Line. Marshall, without their top running back and a quarterback, who now needs nerve medicine from a Three Stooges episode, is going to turn the ball over. A short field will make all the difference for the Bulls. Riding the Bull to the pay window.