I am HUGE (63-71 YTD ATS 47%) Week 16 picks and analysis

[iamhuge]

Here are my picks for this week, analysis to follow...best of luck to all:

BUFFALO -12.5 ball state
Washington +7.5 USC
Air force -1.5 ARMY
Stanford +7.5 UCLA
Arizona state -7.5 OREGON STATE
Northwestern +20.5 OHIO STATE
Missouri -1.5 MISSISSIPPI STATE
UAB/MARSHALL under 42.5

 

[iamhuge]

BUFFALO -12.5 ball state

Everyone is still yapping about the crazy finish to the Ball State – Western Michigan game…what they seem to be forgetting is that Ball State was thoroughly outplayed by the Broncs. Western Michigan had 491 yards of offense despite two turnovers. They had 34 first downs compared to 17 for Ball State. Most revealing is that they had 218 yards rushing and 4.3 yards per carry. The undefeated Buffalo Bulls, who have now cracked the top 25, are literally licking their chops.
Buffalo has won all 5 of their games by an average score of 30 points, winning each game by at least 19 points. Now Ball State will be the best team they have played this year, but Ball State got beat by Miami OH (who Buffalo beat by 32). Kent State (who Buffalo beat by 29) is probably also every bit as good as Ball State. Frankly this line is a head scratcher. Ball State beat Northern Illinois by 6 points…Buffalo beat Northern Illinois by 19 – which still has them covering Ball State.

Buffalo scores points by blocking the crap out of you and handing it off to one of the best running backs in the country. Everyone knows this, but no one has stopped them yet. Nothing will change here. Buffalo is clearly a level higher than every other team in the MAC. They will get their just coronation this week. Riding the Bulls and laying the wood.

 

[Coaster]

I'm tailing. Buff looked great versus Akron.
GL

 

[iamhuge]

Washington has been replaced by Oregon in the Pac 12 title game.

 

[iamhuge]

Air force -1.5 ARMY


This is a no brainer...Air Force has a much more diversified offense and they are well skilled in managing the triple option attack. They won't be able to move the ball on the ground against Army but they can loosen them up with the pass. The same can't be said going the other way. Army doesn't want to pass the ball and they won't have much success on the ground.

Air Force will hit a few big plays and be able to play the game from ahead (or behind if they have to). They competed well against two very good teams (San Jose State and Boise State) and obliterated the weaker teams they played (Navy, Utah State and New Mexico). Army, on the other hand, struggled against a few teams that aren't very good (GA Southern, Citadel, UTSA). Up up and away with the Falcons!

 

[iamhuge]

Stanford +7.5 UCLA

AAAAAAAH….I love the Tree when it is getting points. They usually play through the whole game instead of defoliating and going dormant.

Chip has not found a way to get the Bruins to play fast. Instead all they did was find a way to choke away the game to the Trojans, who are fraudulent to begin with. Simply put, if you look at the common opponents, you can see that these teams are very similar. In the 3 games they shared against Colorado, California and Oregon both UCLA and Stanford are 1-2. They beat the Bears and lost to the Ducks and the Buffaloes.
UCLA lost to Ralphie by 6, Stanford lost by 3. UCLA lost to Oregon by 3 and Stanford lost by 21. However Stanford was going toe to toe with the Ducks until Oregon got a couple of late scores. Stanford missed 4 field goals in that game, which kept them from keeping it close when it mattered. Oregon scored a very late TD in that game as well.

While UCLA handled Cal fairly easily and Stanford needed some help late, the Cal Stanford game is a rivalry game and is difficult to tab that one. Stanford is 9-1 in its last 10 head-to-head matchups with UCLA. Anyone who watched the USC game last week now knows that UCLA’s defense will never be able to close the back door on a late cover. Getting 7.5 points here is too much candy from babies. AAAAH Tuffy! Go with the Treeeee.

 

[iamhuge]

Arizona state -7.5 OREGON STATE

The Herms are on a mission. I watched the game against arch rival Arizona and the Sun Devils were playing like a bunch of crazed dogs. I am really impressed with what Herm Edwards has done over there. The kids believe in him and he still has the energy to be a great coach.

Arizona State should have beaten USC. The Trojans scored 2 touchdowns in the last 3 minutes to win 28-27. So, if USC was playing Oregon State on Saturday, no one would have an issue giving the 7.5 points. The Sun Devils scored 70 points last week….70! They had 259 yards rushing, which means that they will be able to take control of the game on the road in Corvallis. AAAAAH! They had a Chinese kid score a touchdown…that’s how good their O-Line is. Their defense is only giving up 20 points per game.

The Beavers, on the other hand, are ass garbage at 2-4. They have a decent offense, but their defense is suspect, giving up 31 points per game. Their defense was soft in the last 2 weeks against Stanford and Utah, teams that do not have explosive offenses. They are ripe to get lit up by the Sun Devils. The superior ASU defense will be the difference in this game, at the end of the day. Laying the points will not be an issue. Taking the Sun Devils as the road favorite.

 

[iamhuge]

UAB/MARSHALL under 42.5

Taking the under is like going to the dentist….the game never seems to end and there’s always a risk that you’re going to end up with a root canal. The Marshall defense has been the bull of the woods for entire season, only giving up 11 points per game. They ruined their season when they crapped their pants last week against Rice – throwing 5 interceptions. The only way to get the bad taste out of their mouth is to have a relentless effort this week against UAB.
Now UAB, at 5-3, is a very good team and their defense is pretty good too, only giving up 22 points per game. While their offense has scored 29 points per game, it’s really kind of meh. If you take out the games against crap teams, they really look more like a 20 ppg team. I would expect both defenses to play very hard in an effort to secure the Conference USA crown. It’s unlikely one team will get up more than a couple of scores so the defenses will be playing for the full 60 minutes.

UAB is ranked near the bottom of FBS in passing offense. That doesn’t bode well for them on Friday because Marshall’s specialty is stuffing the run. The Thundering Herd have the second-best rushing (73.0 ypg) and total (253.9 ypg) defense. Marshall is also ranked 9[SUP]th[/SUP] in all of FBS on stopping teams from converting 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] downs. UAB’s defense is ranked 15[SUP]th[/SUP] in the country. Expect a hard hitting game and the punters from both teams to get a good workout. This is what you get when good defenses collide….taking the under in what looks to be a 17-10 kind of game.

 

[iamhuge]

Northwestern +20.5 OHIO STATE

Ohio State is the best team in the Big 10. Duh. However, if you look at their body of work, they have played 5 games. In 3 of those 5 games, they have not played well enough to cover this spread over Northwestern. They beat Penn State by 13, they beat Rutgers by 22 and they beat Indiana by 7. There really isn’t any evidence that they are good enough to beat Northwestern by 21, especially since Northwestern is 6-1.
Northwestern plays a very sound defense, only giving up 14.6 points per game. On the other hand, the Buckeye defense has not been rock solid – as they are giving up 23 points per game this year. One would expect Northwestern to be able to score 24 points in this contest, which would mean Ohio State would need to get to 45 to cover. That might be a tall order, since no team has scored even 30 points on Northwestern yet. Is Ohio State that good? Maybe…but we just don’t know. Just like the playoff committee…they imagine them to be that good.

One would expect Northwestern to be able to move the ball and eat clock, which makes it difficult for the team laying this many points to cover. Northwestern is kind of like the knight in Monty Python and the Holy Grail…you can’t kill them. It’s just a flesh wound. They will battle til the end and that back door cover is WIIIIIDE open. Jumping on the Wildcats and the points.

 

[iamhuge]

Missouri -1.5 MISSISSIPPI STATE

Mizzou is ranked 47 and is 5-4 on the season. Mississippi State is ranked 91 and is 2-7 this season. They have played 6 common opponents. The Tigers are 4-2 against these teams and Mississippi State is 2-4 against these teams. The average scores for Mizzou is 31-31 and for the Bulldogs it is 18-28. So essentially Missouri is 10 points better than Mississippi State. So what am I missing here? Nothing.

Why does Mississippi State lose? It’s because they can’t run the ball at all. At all. They are the worst team in the FBS. They are averaging 1.4 yards per carry and 23 yards per game. What’s worse than that is that when they throw the ball, they throw interceptions. They are the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] worst team in the country in throwing interceptions…they have thrown 16 picks in 9 games. Given the choice, it makes more sense to bet on the less inconsistent team, and that would be Missouri. Taking the Tigers on the road.

 

[iamhuge]

UAB / Marshall goes under 1-0 on the week

 

[iamhuge]

Buffalo defense no shows in first half 1-1 on the week

 

[iamhuge]

Northwestern covers 2-1 on the week

 

[varkeyboy]

Nice work!

 

[iamhuge]

The Pirate puts the beat down on Mizzou...and Air Force gives up the LATE TD to Army....2-3 on the week

 

[iamhuge]

Stanford with the win and cover in Double OT 3-3 on the week.

 

[iamhuge]

ASU covers...4-3 for the week 67-74 YTD ATS 48%

 

[CoachCB]

Miss State was the biggest surprise for me yesterday (outside of the 2nd half UF played).

 

[iamhuge]

Miss State was the biggest surprise for me yesterday (outside of the 2nd half UF played).

Agreed...all of a sudden their offense worked...lol