I am HUGE (58-67 YTD ATS 46%) Week 15 picks and analysis

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I feel bad that all eyes won't be on Army/Navy this week....but it's been that kind of year...here are my picks, analysis to follow:

MARSHALL -19.5 unc charlotte
Wake forest +2.5 LOUISVILLE
Texas -29.5 KANSAS
ARKANSAS ST -21.5 incarnate word
Michigan state +14.5 PENN ST
Appalachian state -8.5 GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Western michigan +3.5 BALL STATE
BUFFALO -32.5 akron
KENT STATE -6.5 ohio
Minnesota +9.5 NEBRASKA
San diego state +14.5 BYU
ARMY -6.5 navy
Washington +6.5 OREGON
Uab -8.5 RICE

 

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MARSHALL -19.5 unc charlotte

Take last week’s Rice game (5 Marshall turnovers) and throw it out the window. What you’re left with is a line of incredible value. Marshall is a legit top 20 team that crapped their pants last week. Their defense has only given up 11 points per game in their 7-1 season.

This is a short week for Charlotte, as the 49ers had to play on Sunday and got smushed by a Western Kentucky squad who lost by 24 points to Marshall earlier in the season. Charlotte will be the weakest FBS team that Marshall has played this year and the Herd has been winning their games by an average of 27 points per game. The Thundering Herd has to spit out the bad taste of last week and Charlotte is going to have to get ready for a lot of saliva. I am laying the wood on the hometeam for a big time beat down. We are…MARSHALL!

 

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Wake forest +2.5 LOUISVILLE

Steakey Wakey is getting no respect. I have watched them play a couple of times and they are far better than the Lou. Wake is 4-3. Louisville is 3-7. Massey Composite has Wake ranked 31[SUP]st[/SUP] and Louisville is ranked 78th.
They have played 3 common opponents (Virginia, Virginia Tech and Syracuse). Wake Forest is 3-0 with an average score of 34-18. Louisville is 1-2 in those games with an average score of 27-24. The math says take the points and the Demon Deacons.

 

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Texas -29.5 KANSAS

The Longhorns have proven to be the bullies of the Big 12. When they play a team that’s half decent, they choke. When they play the sisters of the poor, they win by a bazillion points. Kansas is the poster child for sisters of the poor.
Kansas may or may not be better than UTEP, a team that Texas beat 59-3. Texas also slayed Kansas State last week 69-31. K State beat Kansas earlier in the season by the score of 55-14. Get the picture?

Kansas has not won a game this year. They are 0-9. Their average margin of defeat is 30 points. They have failed to cover this 30 point spread in 6 of 9 contests. Texas will be the 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] best team they have played this year, and Texas is averaging 41 points per game.

It is difficult to imagine a scenario where Texas scores fewer than 55 points. Kansas is averaging 15.8 points per game. The math for the underdog cover just doesn’t work. It’s going to be a shit show. Rock Chalk fire the coach….Hook ‘em horns. Laying the wood.

 

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ARKANSAS ST -21.5 incarnate word

A well a everybody's heard about the bird
B-b-b bird, bird, bird, b-bird's the word
A well a bird, bird, bird, the bird is the word
A well a bird, bird, bird, well the bird is the word
A well a bird, bird, bird, b-bird's the word

Incarnate Word has not played a game this season. They aren’t in shape. They aren’t battle tested. They probably can’t tackle. They have one game, then they play in the spring. We saw what happened to North Dakota State, the best team in FCS, when they tried that. They played like shit.

Incarnate Word is not the best FCS team. In fact they are ranked 71 out of 127 FCS teams. Houston Baptist is ranked 63[SUP]rd[/SUP] in the FCS and they lost by 28 to Louisiana Tech and by 26 to North Texas. Arkansas State isn’t quite as good as Louisiana Tech, but they are in the same conversation. Arkansas State is considerably better than North Texas. Last year Incarnate Word lost to UTSA by 28.

Arkansas State, at 3-7, is not having a great season, but their offense is averaging 33 points per game. Against an FCS defense, lacking in speed, they should be up for some explosive touchdowns plays. The Red Wolves scored 50 on Central Arkansas in a 23 point victory. Central Arkansas is ranked 19[SUP]th[/SUP] in the FCS (vs. the Word ranked 71[SUP]st[/SUP]). There’s value in this line….laying the wood on the boys from Arkansas.

 

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Michigan state +14.5 PENN ST

I’m not sold on Penn State. Their defense played great against Rutgers but they will need some offense to cover 14.5. They are averaging only 24.5 points per game so it’s tough to cover this spread unless you put up 30 points. PSU quarterback Sean Clifford always looks like he is playing QB by braille. They are looking at playing in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl in Charlotte…probably one of the most ass bowl games on the slate.

The big reveal here is that Payton Thorne will likely start for Michigan State and he’s 1000 times better than Rocky Lombardi, who often threw the ball like he was boxing Spider Rico. Thorne is a better decision maker and more of a true dual threat, which will help move the chains for Sparty. Michigan State will score at least 17 points, and it’s not likely the Nittany Lions will post 30. Give me the points and Sparty!

 

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Appalachian state -8.5 GEORGIA SOUTHERN

There’s no question that Appalachian State, at 7-3, are half a click off of where they were last year. That doesn’t mean that Georgia Southern gets a seat at the table. It really all boils down to math, because these teams have 7 common opponents. In those 7 games, App State is 5-2 with an average points scored/allowed per game of 33-19, a 14 point victory margin. Over that same slate of opponents, the Eagles are 4-3 with an average points scored/allowed per game of 25-26, a negative margin of 1 point. So by this math, App State is 15 points better than Georgia Southern. Furthermore, if you look at it game by game, App State performed more than 8.5 points better than Georgia Southern in 5 of those 7 games (Campbell, ULM, Texas State, Georgia State, Troy). The numbers don’t lie.

Let alone the numbers, Georgia Southern will be without their starting quarterback and their starting running back. I don’t often take candy from babies, but give me those Jujyfruits because I will be getting lots of cavities from this laugher. Mountaineers laying the wood on the road to the pay window.

 

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Western michigan +3.5 BALL STATE

Western Michigan is 4-1 and scoring 45 points per game. They stubbed their toe last week against Eastern Michigan, but also were able to knock off Central Michigan and Toledo – two very good MAC teams.
Ball State is also 4-1, but their offense is not quite as prolific as the Broncs. They have also defeated the same teams that Western Michigan beat.

The game is a toss up, so I am taking the points. Riding that Bronco!

 

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BUFFALO -32.5 akron

The Buffalo Bulls are badass…..and Akron is just ass. This is going to be a beat down of EPIC proportions. In their 4 losses, Akron has lost 3 of those 4 games by at least 31 points (31, 34 and 45 points). They don’t know how to cover. They like to get cuckolded.

The big bad Bulls are another story. I wasn’t on the Buffalo Bulls train until I watched them give the Kent State Golden Flashes a complete Golden shower last week. These guys are for real, and they will friggin block you into the parking lot if they had the chance. Their O-line is aggressive and tenacious and they love when they get to block for Jaret Patterson. The kid is a legit NFL player.

If the MAC hadn’t started their season so late, they’d be in the same conversation as Cincinnati right now. Buffalo already beat Kent State, a very good MAC team, by 29. Kent State beat Akron by 34 points.
I see ridiculous value in this line. Buffalo is averaging 50 points per game. They move the ball on offense by RUNNING, getting 5.9 yards per carry. No one has figured out how to stop them because they can’t. You don’t have to worry about inconsistency…they will pound the rock. Akron is ranked 107th in the country against the run and are giving up 212 yards per game. Watch Jaret Patterson get his 200 by the end of the 3rd quarter. This is my best bet of the week. I am loading up on the Bulls laying the wood.

 

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Kent State vs Ohio cancelled...COVID

 

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Charlotte / Marshall cancelled..COVID

 

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Minnesota +9.5 NEBRASKA

I hope no one is jumping on the Cornhusker bandwagon yet…especially since PJ Fleck needs to row his boat. Massey Composite rating has Minnesota ranked 64 and Nebraska ranked 65. The game is a tossup. So Nebraska, with its lame ass offense and 23 point scoring average, should not be laying 9.5 points. They can never keep drives going and their vertical passing game looks like Ultimate Frisbee. There is incredible value here in this point spread.

The Gopher’s offense has some punch, scoring 30 points per game. The last time they got to play was 3 weeks ago and they beat a good Purdue team (yes, it was a gift, but the game was close all the way). Minnesota also beat Illinois by 27, the same Illinois team that beat Nebraska by 18. Minnesota’s game plan is going to be painfully obvious. They are going to run the ball until the soles of their cleats fall off. Mohamed Ibrahim has 163 rushing yards per game and he is NFL worthy. As a result, this clock is going to wind down fast, which means points will be at a premium. The backdoor cover is also very much alive because if Nebraska can squeak out a close win they will be so relieved. Nebraska has had problems scoring in the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half so if Minnesota is covering in the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter, don’t count on any late scores by Nebraska. Go Go Gophers and those 9.5 points!

 

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Arkansas State and Incarnate Word cancelled

 

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San diego state +14.5 BYU

The emperor has no clothers. BYU has been a wrecking machine all year, then they strutted into South Carolina to supposedly clobber Coastal Carolina and they ended up doing the walk of shame. It wasn’t so much that they lost the game, but the real reveal was that they weren’t able to stop Coastal Carolina from running the ball. They knew Coastal was going to run the ball, and they couldn’t stop them. The Aztecs love to run the football and they can do it every bit as well as Coastal Carolina can…probably better.

San Diego State is averaging over 200 yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry. This has enabled them to move the chains, go on long drives and chew up clock. Good news for the Aztecs, running back Greg Bell seems to be healthy after a banged up ankle. They keep their defense well rested and their defense has responded, only giving up 16.3 ppg. In 4 of their 7 games, their opponents scored less than 20 points and no team has scored more than 28 against them. Their defense is ranked #3 in the country and they have played a legit schedule (eg Colorado, Nevada, San Jose State).

This will make it tough for BYU to score 30 points. Also one of their top receivers, Gunner Romney, got beat up by Coastal Carolina and he now looks like Mitt Romney’s dog on top of his station wagon. It’s unlikely he will play. BYU has only played 2 teams that are better than the Aztecs – Boise State and Coastal Carolina. The glitz of BYU will be mired by the old school football that San Diego State loves to play. They will take the air out of the football and minimize the number of total possessions, which will put points at a huge premium. San Diego State won last year’s game by the score of 13-3 and a core group of the defense from last year’s Aztec team is here this year to try it again. BYU is going to be anxious to score quickly and the Aztec defense will frustrate them. Covering this number will be very difficult for the Cougars in this low scoring contest. If BYU hits some big plays, they can cover…but that’s a big IF. Taking the points and the Aztecs here.

 

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Oregon vs Washington cancelled COVID

 

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ARMY -6.5 navy

These games are always close, and it seems to be ridiculous to give points but the fact that Army is playing this game at West Point means a lot more than anyone can know. I combine this with the fact that Army’s defense is light year’s better than Navy’s. Army has only given up 16.3 points per game and in 4 of their 9 contests, they held opponents to single digits. Navy, on the other hand, has a defense that has been much more generous – giving up 32 points per game.

That, my friends is the rub. We all know that both teams will run the ball until their cleats are nubs. Army’s run defense is ranked 23[SUP]rd[/SUP] in the country only giving up 3.9 yards per carry and 119 yards per game. Navy has had a much more difficult time tackling ballcarriers, giving up 5.3 yards per carry and 213 yards per game. That’s a distinct difference. In a game where controlling the ball and having a lead is paramount, it makes it difficult to think Navy can do that, given these circumstances.

The Cadets are the better team this year and the home cooking is going to mean a big deal – probably more than any other game played this COVID season. Laying the points on the fact that Army will be singing last.

 

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Uab -8.5 RICE
UAB is 4-3 on the season, but could very easily be 6-1 with their only decisive loss to the Miami Hurricanes. Nothing to be ashamed of. Their OT loss to Louisiana Tech never should have happened as the Blazers totally outplayed the Ragin Cajuns all game. For some reason, the Blazers aren’t getting the respect they deserve, as they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games. More importantly, UAB is one victory away from its third consecutive Conference USA Championship Game appearance.

The only reason Rice is in this conversation is because the Owls miraculously toppled Marshall last week thanks to 5 turnovers by the Thundering Herd. Other than that, Rice is kind of a shit show, losing to MTSU and North Texas – two very bad teams. Rice has a feeble offensive line and can’t run the ball at all, clocking in at only three yards a carry.

We all know how Vegas and the public picks work…everyone remembers what happened last week. If the Marshall game never happened, UAB would be a 17 point favorite. They beat South Alabama by 32 points and WKU by 23 points, both teams very comparable in stature to Rice.

UAB has not played since Halloween, and they will have their issues with players suiting up but they do have Spencer Brown, their all team leading running back. The Owls should expect a heavy dose of him. Rice has their own problems with available players. The status of starting quarterback Mike Collins, number one running back Juma Otoviano, and their best wide receiver Austin Trammell is unknown. It’s kind of like those masked wrestlers…weight unknown from parts unknown.

At the end of the day, UAB is the far superior team. The 8.5 cover is kind of stiff, but Rice’s offense is very challenged, so the backdoor cover isn’t going to be a concerned. When the Blazers get out to a halftime lead, they should be able to hold them off. Going with the chalk and the Blazers.

 

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Western Michigan and Minnesota cover....Sparty and Wake do not...2-2 on the week

 

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UAB wins but doesnt cover....tough RICE defense 2-3 on the week

 

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Buffalo and Army cover easily....4-3 on the week with 2 games to go.