I am HUGE (51-64 YTD ATS 44%) Week 14 picks and analysis

[iamhuge]

Of course, my picks have been ass all season...but I still enjoy doing it and love doing the analysis. Just because my season has been bad, it doesn't mean this week won't be good and, over the years, I have had more winning seasons than losers...so it's more than a hobby for me Best of luck to all.

Going on the road big time this week...14 of my 15 picks are road teams...call me crazy. Analysis to follow...

GEORGIA -33.5 vanderbily
Clemson -23.5 VIRGINIA TECH
Boston college +6.5 VIRGINIA
Liberty +6.5 COASTAL CAROLINA
Ohio state -22.5 MICHIGAN STATE
Florida Atlantic +1.5 GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Kent state -2.5 MIAMI (OH)
Buffalo -10.5 OHIO
Florida international +7.5 CHARLOTTE
Colorado -3.5 ARIZONA
Ucla +3.5 ARIZONA STATE
Stanford +10.5 WASHINGTON
Texas a&m -6.5 AUBURN
Memphis +1.5 TULANE
Alabama -28.5 LSU

 

[iamhuge]

GEORGIA -33.5 vanderbilt

Vandy doesn't have a coach and they have a girl kicker. JT Daniels wants to be an NFL QB and he's not going to get there unless he lights up Vandy for 50 points. I am sure the Bulldogs don't want to run up the score...in fact they don't need to...but Vandy's offense is just so bad that Georgia is going to keep getting the ball back. LSU, South Carolina and Mizzou all covered this spread against the Commodores. Georgia is making a push for a New Year's Bowl...and this is their last chance. It's unfortunate for Vandy, but it is what it is. The Massey Composite computer ratings has Vandy ranked lower than South Florida, Temple and UTEP. If UGA was playing any of these teams, I don't think anyone would have a problem laying the 33.5. Woof Woof UGA...home game fun for Georgia.

 

[iamhuge]

Clemson -23.5 VIRGINIA TECH

It’s showtime for Clemson and Sunshine. As Notre Dame continues to get the job done, in convincing fashion, it’s up to Clemson to show who the best team is in the ACC prior to the Conference Championship. Trevor wants to be the number 1 pick, but his chances for the Heisman are slipping as Kyle Trask keeps lighting up the scoreboard. So, the stars are aligned for Clemson to put the pedal to the metal on offense and keep it going. We saw it last week vs. Pittsburgh.

As for Virginia Tech, they are simply not good enough to control the destiny of what happens to them on Saturday. They are 4-5 and their defense is giving up 33 points per game. This isn’t Beamer ball anymore. It’s ass ball. They are 1-4 in their last 5 games. They lost to Liberty. They lost by 33 to Pittsburgh (yes the same Panther team that Clemson beat by 35 points). There is no scenario where this game is close. There is no scenario where this game is not a blowout. If you take out the ND game, Clemson’s defense is only giving up 15 points per game. That means that if they play to their level, Clemson only needs to score 39 to cover. The Tigers will be roaring.

 

[iamhuge]

Boston college +6.5 VIRGINIA

The Eagles have been a great dog all year…showing no quarter in games that they should have been supposedly smoked (Clemson, Notre Dame and UNC). The only time they fudged their duds was against Virginia Tech. Other than that, they beat every team that was equal or worse than Virginia. The consistency has been admirable. Give credit to their coaching and their quarterback. Now that Jurkovec is out with a leg injury, BC gets all of these points. The thing that people don’t know is that Dennis Grosel started half of the games last season for BC. This is no emergency QB situation and Grosel will be welcomed with open arms. The Cavs are ranked 113[SUP]th[/SUP] in pass defense with 9.7 yards per attempt and 291 yards per game.

Because of this porous pass defense, Virginia has been kind of a shit show all season at 4-4. Their win against UNC is certainly the hallmark of the season, but that’s their only mark of success so far. You can’t point to what they did against Abilene Christian as anything remarkable. They have not as yet covered this 6.5 spread against any team ranked as high or higher than BC. No need to expect them to do so this week either. One should expect BC to go balls out in this last game of their season, reflecting the fire that their new coach has brought to the program. The Cavaliers are allowing 28.9 points per game, ranking them 76th in the nation. The backdoor is not safe at all. I am taking the Eagles on the road with the points to cover.

 

[iamhuge]

Liberty +6.5 COASTAL CAROLINA

It seems like everyone is jumping on the Chant bandwagon, but Jerry Falwell Jr. is wondering like “What are we wood? I mean look at my hot wife.” Yes, the Liberty Flames should not be ignored. While Coastal Carolina was making a mockery of the Sun Belt conference, Liberty was scheduling legit ACC teams such as NC State and Virginia Tech. We just haven’t seen what Coastal Carolina can do against good teams.

Liberty is 7-0 ATS in its last 7. Scoring 38 points per game means that Liberty has a lot of gas in the tank, even when getting cuckolded by the pool boy. The back door could be in play for both the pool boy and for Liberty but if the Flames have the ball last, I don’t see how Coastal is going to cover this spread. Maybe even Hugh Freeze will make the call to Jerry Falwell’s wife after he takes down the Chants. No one has covered this spread against Liberty this year…give me the Flames and the points.

 

[iamhuge]

Ohio state -22.5 MICHIGAN STATE

Poor Sparty. Ohio State is running out of games to prove that they belong in the playoffs. The Buckeyes beat Indiana by 7 and Indiana beat Michigan State by 24. Ohio State beat Rutgers by 22 and Rutgers beat Sparty by 11. Michigan State also had the pleasure of losing to Iowa 49-7. That was the biggest beatdown by Iowa this season.

Ohio State won’t have Coach Ryan Day. It doesn’t matter, the Buckeye offense is virtually unstoppable, averaging 45 points per game and 535 yards per game. Their defense is holding opponents to less than 100 yards rushing per game. Ohio State has one of the top QB’s in the country. Michigan State has Rocky at QB who throws the ball like Ivan Drago. Michigan State will not be able to run the ball against the Buckeyes which will put more pressure on Rocky than Mr. T did in the first fight before Mickey had a heart attack and got all D E D.

Michigan State, averaging only 18 points per game, is going to struggle to put up points and 17 will be a good day for them. If Ohio State scores 40 points, they cover. Count on that. This is a HUGE game for Ohio State…HUGE and we should expect them to score throughout the second half. Laying the wood on the Buckeyes who have to impress the committee lest they lose their CFP spot!

 

[iamhuge]

Florida Atlantic +1.5 GEORGIA SOUTHERN

Poor FAU. They are in Boca Raton and they don’t get to go to Boston’s on the beach in Delray because of COVID. All they want to do is show the world how good their defense is and all of their games keep getting cancelled more than Don Rickles did.

Georgia Southern plays in the Sun Belt, which blows. Florida Atlantic plays in Conference USA, which is better, but not much better. At the end of the day, they have played comparable schedules. FAU has scored 21 points per game and is giving up 11. Georgia Southern is scoring 27 but giving up 23. Neither team is impressive on offense. Both teams like to run the ball and burn clock. It will be a low scoring game for sure. Georgia Southern just fired their offensive coordinator, as if anyone cares how good Georgia Southern is, other than the people who bet on them. Either way, that’s not going to help their point production. FAU will be able to stop the Eagles’ option attack, which should put them in a position to win the turnover battle. In a low scoring game, that’s going to make all the difference. Who who who is going to win? Taking the Owls.

 

[iamhuge]

Miami vs Kent State covid casualty

 

[Knightrofins]

Florida Atlantic +1.5 GEORGIA SOUTHERN

Poor FAU. They are in Boca Raton and they don’t get to go to Boston’s on the beach in Delray because of COVID. All they want to do is show the world how good their defense is and all of their games keep getting cancelled more than Don Rickles did.

Georgia Southern plays in the Sun Belt, which blows. Florida Atlantic plays in Conference USA, which is better, but not much better. At the end of the day, they have played comparable schedules. FAU has scored 21 points per game and is giving up 11. Georgia Southern is scoring 27 but giving up 23. Neither team is impressive on offense. Both teams like to run the ball and burn clock. It will be a low scoring game for sure. Georgia Southern just fired their offensive coordinator, as if anyone cares how good Georgia Southern is, other than the people who bet on them. Either way, that’s not going to help their point production. FAU will be able to stop the Eagles’ option attack, which should put them in a position to win the turnover battle. In a low scoring game, that’s going to make all the difference. Who who who is going to win? Taking the Owls.

I think Boston's is still open along with everything else on Atlantic Avenue (great spot if ever in Delray!!)

 

[iamhuge]

Buffalo -10.5 OHIO

I wasn’t on the Buffalo Bulls train until I watched them give the Kent State Golden Flashes a complete Golden shower last week. These guys are for real, and they will friggin block you into the parking lot if they had the chance. Their O-line is aggressive and tenacious and they love when they get to block for Jaret Patterson. The kid is a legit NFL player.

Now, the Ohio Bobcats are a good MAC Daddy team, but Buffalo is now playing on a completely different level. If the MAC hadn’t started their season so late, they’d be in the same conversation as Cincinnati right now. Ohio lost to Central Michigan and their two wins were against the crap teams (Akron and Soylent Green) in the MAC. There is no evidence that they are better than Kent State, in fact they are not as good as Kent State, who Buffalo beat by 29. Ohio’s offense isn’t terrific. The 24 points they scored against Akron is by far the lowest total the Zips have given up all season. The other 3 teams that Akron played posted an average of 55 ppg.

I see ridiculous value in this line. Buffalo has beaten every team they played by at least 19 points and they are averaging 50 points per game. They move the ball on offense by RUNNING, getting 5.9 yards per carry. No one has figured out how to stop them because they can’t. You don’t have to worry about inconsistency…they will pound the rock. Ohio is ranked 97[SUP]th[/SUP] in the country against the run and are giving up 200 yards per game. Watch Jaret Patterson get his 200 by the end of the 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] quarter. This is my best bet of the week. I am loading up on the Bulls laying the wood.

 

[iamhuge]

I think Boston's is still open along with everything else on Atlantic Avenue (great spot if ever in Delray!!)

been there many times!

 

[iamhuge]

FIU vs Charlotte cancelled...

 

[iamhuge]

Colorado -3.5 ARIZONA

I haven’t been a huge Ralphie fan in recent years, however it’s very difficult to overlook this slim point spread when Arizon is SOOOO bad. The Wildcats are 0-3 and have as yet to cover this spread. The Wildcats have failed to cover the number in eight of the last 10. They got beat by UCLA 27-10. Meanwhile the Buffaloes lit up the Bruins by the score of 48-42. It doesn’t say much about Arizona’s offense if they could only score 10 on UCLA while Colorado notched 48.
Also commendable was Colorado’s 20-10 defeat of San Diego State (a game put together on short notice), holding San Diego State to just 155 yards of total offense. San Diego State is much better than Arizona is. Arizona’s starting QB may not play, and if he does he won’t be effective with a bad shoulder.

Colorado goes into this game with a big chip on their shoulder. They are undefeated and did not get any consideration in the CFP top 25. Expect them to try to make a statement. On the other hand, there is zero reason to bet Arizona in this game – zero. I am riding Ralphie the Buffalo and the Wildcats will be picking up Ralphie’s shit afterwards.

 

[iamhuge]

Ucla +3.5 ARIZONA STATE
The Bruins are back! For the want of a little of this and a little of that, the 2-2 Bruins would be undefeated. They are every bit as good as the teams who beat them – Oregon and Colorado and are markedly better than the teams they vanquished – Arizona and Cal. The Bruins are good, with or without QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson. UCLA has found a way of getting it done on the ground. As a team they're maintaining an average of 241.8 yards on the ground which ranks them 11th in the nation.

The Sun Devils, on the other hand, are as inconsistent as Herm Edwards is. Yes, you indeed play to win the game, but they have only played one game….and they lost. They haven’t played in a month and there is COVID all over Arizona. In their one game against USC, the Trojans ejaculated 556 yards of total offense all over the Sun Devils like bukkake. Arizona State is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Pac 12 tilts. They are overrated.
Chip Kelly is coaching like he really likes this job and a win here will make sure he’s not golfing in New Hampshire next summer. Taking the Bruins AND the points.

 

[Knightrofins]

been there many times!

We usually hit downtown delray 2-5 times a year. We have our places that we like to go to (we usually go to the pinball museum 1x or 2x a year).

My favorite is when they have an arts or seafood festival and they block off atlantic avenue when the weather is nice. Always a fun day!!

Also a sucker for mellow mushroom. Love the pizza and beer there. Then usually we either walk towards the beach or we walk to the shops out west

My friends (the ones who still have social lives) still hit Delray alot and are having a blast

Dang COVID!!

 

[iamhuge]

Stanford +10.5 WASHINGTON
The Huskies are definitely the better team, but their defense has not been lockdown which makes this spread wide open for a back door cover. They have only covered this spread once (barely against sad sack Arizona). But they couldn’t cover against Oregon State or Utah – teams that are not significantly better than Stanford. Tree, on the other hand, has been gamey. While they played poorly in the season opener, they have looked much better against Cal and Colorado, both close games. There isn’t any evidence that Washington will be able to get away from them, especially since Washington has yet to look dominant.

Washington had trouble controlling the game against the Utes last week. Utah smashed them for 215 yards last week. If Tree can duplicate that feat, and they have shown flashes of a strong running game, there is no way Washington can cover this spread. Aaaah Tuffy…Stanford beat Washington, let’s drink. Taking the points and the Tree.

 

[iamhuge]

Texas a&m -6.5 AUBURN

We’re looking at two teams traveling in different directions. The Aggies are playing for a legit shot at making the CFP for the first time ever. Auburn is completely deflated at this point and their team has not much to play for anymore after getting stomped by Bama last week. In their 3 losses this year, Auburn has been unable to cover this spread – which shows a lack of fight in these troops. Texas A&M has covered this number by beating Mississippi State, Arkansas, South Carolina, and LSU by at least 11 points, so this spread is not daunting at all.

Auburn’s offensive line is really banged up, and this should definitely affect the play of Bo Nix. Two of their running backs also have some injuries that will limit their effectiveness. This puts way too much pressure on their QB against an A&M defense that has been very good – giving up only 22 points per game. On defense, Auburn is 10[SUP]th[/SUP] in the SEC against the run – that’s not good. What’s worse is that teams are converting on 54% of their 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] downs against the Tigers – that’s the worst in the SEC. Texas A&M will be in a position to control the game on the road, by running the football – which will give Kellen Mond some options for explosive plays. The fact that Texas A&M only scored 20 points last week against LSU is antenna noise as that was a really bad weather game as they scored over 40 points in 3 of their last 4 games. Bottom line is that if Texas A&M wants a seat at the CFP table, they most certainly need to be 7 points better than Auburn. Laying the points on the Aggies…Gig ‘em.

 

[Coaster]

I appreciate the time and effort you put into your writeups, also the humor.
GL

 

[iamhuge]

Vandy vs UGA cancelled COVID

 

[iamhuge]

I appreciate the time and effort you put into your writeups, also the humor.
GL

Thanks buddy...maybe I'll actually win some of these!