I am HUGE (0-0 YTD) Week 1 picks and analysis

[iamhuge]

ARIZONA ST -25 kent state
Kent State is pretty bad. No….Kent State is really bad. Last year they only won one FBS game. Of course that fact really doesn’t matter since they’re not going to win this game at Arizona State, so what we need to be concerned about is whether or not they’ll cover 25 points.

The Golden Flashes defense was the worst in the MAC last year, yielding 467 yards and 37 points per game. Their defensive line was their biggest weakness. They couldn’t stop the run and they couldn’t generate a pass rush. They cured that problem since all 3 starters from last year are no longer on the team. The bad news is their replacements were JV last year. The only time Kent State played a team as good as Arizona State last year, they lost by 53 points. Their defense will be worse this season. Arizona State’s Eno Benjamin was a stud last year running for over 1600 yards and 5.5 yards per carry. The Sun Devil O line returns four starters. Eno will be laughing like a hyena when he sees the holes that get opened up against the worst D-line in the MAC.

Herm Edwards has his Sun Devil team all amped up. They averaged 38 points per game in their 7 victories last season. There aren’t many teams in the FBS as bad as Kent State…. but in the 2 games that the Sun Devils played last year against teams ranked 100 or lower, they won them by an average of 35 points. They had a big offensive display in their home opener non-conference game against UTSA last season. Expect the same on Thursday night against Kent State.

In the 5 games that Kent played last year against teams ranked 80[SUP]th[/SUP] or higher (Arizona State is ranked 47[SUP]th[/SUP] by the way) the Flashes averaged only averaged 14 points per game. That’s a not very flashy offense. So by my math, ASU needs to only score their average of 40 points to cover (against the weakest defense in the MAC). They’ll most likely score 49 points.

Kent State has been practicing in 60 degree weather all week. It’s going to be 107 during the day Thursday in Tempe and 85 degrees at kickoff. The Golden Flashes are going to need some water to cool off their panting defense by the 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] quarter in front a frenzied partying opening night crowd. The Sun Devil receivers will be WIDE open in the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half. It’s likely the Golden Flashes will more than likely be getting a Golden Shower from the Sun Devils. Lay the wood…I am taking Arizona State -25.

 

[isellgel]

I agree with your thoughts especially the Az St. points and weather. Tailing :toast:

 

[Serbone]

Pac 12 teams seem to disappoint in non conference games, Kent State is top 10 of percentage of returning starters... but the MAC stinks in non conference, too. I just wonder if AZ St can cover that huge number.
I appreciate the write up, most cappers do not help with any info, rationale. Good cappers note these kind of weather issues, ha 30 years ago the Phoenix Cardinals had outside day games and would be losing, say 23-7 and rally late and win 33-23 as the other team cramped up.

 

[iamhuge]

OREGON STATE +14 ½ Oklahoma state
Mike Gundy is a man, but one thing he is not is defensive mastermind. In this road opener they are giving up a lot of points for a team that finished 7-6 last year. Add the fact that the Cowboys have a new redshirt freshman quarterback and a new Offensive Coordinator (from Princeton) and one has to wonder how they will get through the game without making any mistakes on offense, especially on the road. You want to play a night game on the road against a howling hostile Corvallis crowd, you’d better be able to run the football to calm things down. Oklahoma State doesn’t like to run the football. They like the spread. Now don’t get me wrong, Gleeson is going to be a great college football OC and his innovation could change college football permanently, but it ain’t gonna happen as soon as Friday night.

Turning to the other side of the ball, Cowboys ranked No. 97 in scoring defense and No. 112 in total defense - 453 yards and 33 points per game . That’s not good…at all..and in the land of backdoor covers no one laying the points will be able to rest easily. The even bigger concern is the defensive line, where six players —four starters and two rotating backups — are no longer Cowboys. They tried to replace the spots at end with transfers from Colorado and Bowling Green but how they will fare on week 1 is anyone’s guess. On top of that, their leading tackler at LB is gone.

Now Oregon State isn’t a very good team but their offense isn’t terrible. They averaged 400 yards per game last year and, most importantly, their two running backs are among the best in the PAC 12. They are very physical ball carriers, the kind that make Big 12 defenses look like they are playing on roller skates. Moving the chains and speeding up the game will make it more difficult for Oklahoma State to cover this point spread. While their defense was terrible last year, they have 8 starters returning so it’s likely they will be improved.

This game is a scripted backdoor cover. The fact that the Beavers are home means that they will try to score meaningless touchdowns at the end while Oklahoma State is mugging for the cameras on the sidelines. Laying 14 ½ is just too many against a physical rushing attack facing a touch football defense designed to stop the pass. I’m taking the Beavers and the points!

 

[iamhuge]

Mississippi state -20 LOUISIANA

Let’s address the elephant in the room. The Bulldogs will likely suspend 10 players for this game but just because WE don’t know who is playing, it doesn’t mean that Mississippi State doesn’t know. They do know and everyone one of those Mississippi State players on the field will be better than his Rajun Cajun counterpart. Moreover, the substitute Bulldog players will be playing their asses off, because it will be their time to shine in front of the coaches. I expect even more of a sense of urgency and relentlessness from the favorites.

Last year, the Bulldog running game finished second in the SEC behind a mammoth O line. We’ll see more of the same this year from the big boys. Behind center is Penn State transfer Tommy Stevens who played before for Coach Joe Moorhead. From camp reports their passing game is way ahead of where they were last year. Speaking of last year, the Bulldogs beat the Cajuns by the score of 56-10. They posted 600 yards of offense including 331 yards on the ground, averaging 7 yards per tote. Kylin Hill will be able to run at will against a very unproven Louisiana state run stopping box that will likely be playing 3 yards off the ball before they even know where it is. Why do I say this? Last year, Louisiana was 112[SUP]th[/SUP] in the country against the run. When you look at these stats from last year, you have to realize that the Cajuns play in the crap Sun Belt conference and 7 of the teams they played were ranked below #100, so the facts that their stats were still so shitty does not bode well for them in an SEC matchup.

On the other side of the ball, the Cajuns ran into a brick wall last year against the Bulldogs with only 65 yards and 2.5 yards per carry…a total mismatch. That’s no surprise. Miss State’s signature is that they are crazy good against the run, last year finishing second in the nation behind Michigan State, allowing just 95 yards per game. Don’t count on the pass for the Cajuns as their primary QB from last year, Nunez, has finished his stint with the program. Yup…a new QB against a hungry D.


The Bulldogs are projected to be better than they were last year and in the four games when they played teams ranked #60 or lower, they won those games by an average of 41.5 points per game. When Louisiana Lafayette played its 2 games against teams in the top 20, they lost by an average of 44 points. The math just does not add up for the Cajuns to cover this spread.

Playing in the New Orleans Superdome isn’t going to help. It’s likely that the Bulldog faithful will outnumber the “home” team in that big stadium. Yup…more cowbell. I’m laying the wood and watching the Bulldogs cover the 20 points here.

 

[ofred]

Appreciate the write-ups. Miss. State's suspensions scared me off a bit, but ULL is a lightweight defensively. I also like Oregon State, but the Okie State QB might be real good, or just another freshman. Gundy is kind of a QB whisperer, and the Beaver D is still very porous. The points, though, are generous for a home game, and the Beaver offense can run the ball well, eating up chunks of time on long drives.

 

[iamhuge]

anyone else thinking on the UTEP vs Houston Baptist game? Looks like candy from babies.

 

[iamhuge]

Kent State defense definitely better than they were last year...but will they hold up in the heat in 2nd half?

 

[Saints2016]

Good luck this year!

 

[iamhuge]

Both teams' defenses played much better than I expected. If someone had told me that Kent State was only going to score 7 points I would have really amped up my bet. I am very surprised ASU did not score more than 40. Kent State defense was much more physical than expected and hustled to the point of attack and I thought ASU would do much better than 3.7 yards per carry.

 

[iamhuge]

The Oregon St game pretty much went as expected other than the fact that the Beavers abandoned the run early. Obviously going for 2 twice killed me. Don't chase the points! LOL

 

[iamhuge]

MARYLAND -29.5 howard
Ordinarily I look away from these body bag games but this one is intriguing for a few reasons. First of all Maryland is an average-ish Big 10 team. Last year they were able to vanquish 3 Big 10 opponents (Minnesota, Rutgers and Illinois) by an average of 29 points. I’ll throw in a victory of 31 points over Bowling Green. So Maryland showed a lot of offensive firepower…they still have it. You have to multiply that by the fact that Howard’s defense was soft in the FCS – giving up 34 points per game last year. They won’t be playing Florida A&M or Delaware State today. There is virtually no scenario here where Maryland scores less than 50 points in this game.
Howard has some flashy skill players on offense, including Cam Newton’s brother at QB. However going against a Big 10 front 7 will likely mitigate any timing and speed that they have. Howard is a below average FCS team and the best team they played last year was Kent State, losing by 40 points. Maryland is probably 3 touchdowns better than Kent State.
So that’s the how to…the want to is the secret sauce in this game. Maryland is looking to shake off ugly incidents in recent memory with a new coaching staff and a new attitude. They won’t be sleeping for this game. The weather is perfect. Playing a cross town rival will keep these players excited and will motivate the Terp defense to keep their little brothers out of the end zone. Seeing the line fall below 30 is a gift. Laying the wood on the team with the funny helmets.

 

[iamhuge]

UTSA – 6.5 incarnate word
No offense to any Cardinal alums, but I really don’t know a lot about Incarnate Word, other than the fact that when they stepped up in class to play an FBS team over the last two years, they went 0-3 losing by an average of 47 points to North Texas, New Mexico and Fresno State. Now UTSA isn’t a very good FBS team but they did win 3 FBS games last year and in two of those wins they covered this spread against teams that are better than Incarnate Word. The UTSA offense was deplorable last year (worst in FBS) but they have 9 starters coming back….they will be better.

The Riverwalk and Alamadome will be rocking tonight. These are two San Antonio schools and certainly Incarnate Word will play hard in front of their friends and family to prove that they belong. But I don’t see a scenario where they should win this game, and given the weakness in their defense, the 6.5 points will not be a big mountain for the Roadrunners to climb. UTSA does not want the best area high school players to even think about going to their cross town rival. Their pride is certainly at stake but the real difference in ability in the front 7 is what will make this a comfortable victory for UTSA.

 

[iamhuge]

1-3 so far this week. Mississippi State was a BAAAAAD pick. Louisiana played tough at home. Give them credit.

 

[iamhuge]

UTSA looks like candy from babies

 

[iamhuge]

and it's UTSA with the easy cover....

Overall a bad week - (2-3 40% ATS ytd):


Losers:
ASU
OSU
MSU


Winners:
Maryland
UTSA


I'm happy with the easy covers...a couple of my losses were tough ones, especially Oregon State who went for 2 twice and didn't convert either of them. Week 1 is always a challenge.


Will be back early next week with my week 2 selections. Best of luck to all.