How to bet UFC 214
Reed Kuhn
ESPN Insider
Though the recent UFC "Fight Week" card, which promised a pair of title fights, didn't work out as planned, we're getting something even better before we wrap up the month of July with an ultra-rare event featuring three belts on the line. The rest of the card offers a solid mix of dangerous strikers and matchups with contender implications. On paper, it's the best fight card of the year. And since most MMA fans will be tuning in, we'd better cover the betting angles.
Given the lack of data on new UFC crossover Tonya Evinger, as well as the extreme 1-to-10 odds for Cris "Cyborg" Justino in their women's featherweight title fight, we'll be skipping that analysis. Instead, we'll look at a key welterweight matchup between former champion Robbie Lawler and former lightweight title challenger Donald Cerrone -- an immediate fan favorite of a fight the moment this matchup was announced.
Welterweight matchup: No. 3 Robbie Lawler (-155) vs. No. 6 Donald Cerrone (+135)
Both fighters have defined themselves with dangerous weaponry and a willingness to brawl long enough to deploy the heavy guns. But that style of fighting comes at a cost, and both fighters took long layoffs after their most recent fights, both of which were TKO losses.
Lawler has typically chosen to stand in the pocket and avoid the ground game, so Cerrone's grappling game could either steal a round, or force the shootout fans want to see. If that's the case, it boils down to Lawler's more accurate and evasive striking versus Cowboy's more dangerous and diverse arsenal. Either man is capable of dropping the other, and while Cowboy is more dangerous offensively thanks to his kicks, on paper he's also less resilient. Time and damage have taken a toll on both fighters.
Insider recommends: Lawler's historic resilience is now a big question mark, and a willingness to eat punches against a striker like Cerrone gives the underdog in this fight a solid chance. Cerrone's ground game could also lead to a submission. We'll take Cerrone at plus money, and add the "under 2.5 rounds" at roughly even money as well. There's a lot of finishing potential here, and enough offense that Fight of the Night is also in play. If Cerrone doesn't get the upset, it's because he goes out on his shield.
Welterweight title matchup: Champion Tyron Woodley (-210) vs. No. 1 Demian Maia (+175)
This fight offers a pair of outstanding grapplers, though they work in very different ways. Woodley's near perfect takedown defense and smothering ground and pound contrasts with Maia's best-in-class back control. Knowing that Maia needs the fight on the mat, Woodley will have to be patient before he truly unleashes his strikes. A slip up that gives Maia back control is at the very least a round-losing mistake, and at worst, a fight-ending disaster.
While standing, a similar standoff in styles is likely. Both men are very hesitant in their striking; Maia only engages out of necessity, or when he's trying to distract opponents from his frequent takedown attempts. Meanwhile, Woodley is the hardest hitter in UFC welterweight division, and it's not even close. But that's only when he's pulling the trigger, which can sometimes take a while against measured opponents.
Insider recommends: This fight will begin as a staring contest, but if Woodley's takedown defense keeps the fighters on their feet, his hands can finish it from there. We've recommended Woodley in all three of his UFC title appearances; in each of those fights, Woodley was an underdog, and he's come through twice, plus one push. The streak continues here, though for once we'll have to lay juice for him as the market has finally caught on. Woodley has also scored a knockdown in each of his title appearances against fairly resilient opponents. With a similar kind of fight in play here, against an opponent pushing 40, a prop on Woodley by TKO at -125 is an even better value than a straight play.
Light heavyweight title matchup: Champion Daniel Cormier (+250) vs. No. 1 Jon Jones (-275)
It's been a long wait for this rematch, so the obvious question here is what has changed since their first meeting. At UFC 182 in 2015, Jones had more output and landed more accurately from long range. He was only taken down once, and otherwise controlled the position and range of the fight. Cormier was able to win one round, but never really threatened Jones' path to victory. Two and half years later, Cormier is now 38 years old, and Jones appears to be physically stronger than ever before. But stylistically, not much has changed.
Both men are excellent wrestlers, and although Cormier has the pedigree and solid stats earned mostly against heavyweights, Jones has proven impossible to keep down -- and he has tricky submissions to punish anyone who tries too hard to do so. While their striking metrics are nearly identical, the reach differential exceeding a foot cannot be ignored. It's unfortunate these two are on opposite extremes of frame size for the division, because otherwise, this would be a much fairer fight.
Insider recommends: We recommended Jones the first time around, and we're taking him again. At this price, some of the return value is lost, but Jones still makes for good parlay fodder. Over 4.5 rounds is the expected outcome, and at -165 it's a cheaper price than Jones straight up. The "over" hedges against Cormier finally succeeding on the mat, and doing so for at least three rounds. However, a Cormier finish there is unlikely. For the total, don't pay more than -200 because a Jones finish is still possible if accumulated damage takes a toll on Cormier.
Closing odds and ends
For the budget and parlay hunters, combining Jones straight, Woodley "inside the distance" (or by TKO) and Cris Justino "inside the distance" (or by TKO) offers a +190 return. In addition to the analysis of Jones and Woodley above, Justino has displayed the most superlative striking we've seen to date in the UFC's women's divisions. Her betting odds are north of 1-to-10, but a TKO prop around -600 acts as a small parlay booster.
Reed Kuhn
ESPN Insider
Though the recent UFC "Fight Week" card, which promised a pair of title fights, didn't work out as planned, we're getting something even better before we wrap up the month of July with an ultra-rare event featuring three belts on the line. The rest of the card offers a solid mix of dangerous strikers and matchups with contender implications. On paper, it's the best fight card of the year. And since most MMA fans will be tuning in, we'd better cover the betting angles.
Given the lack of data on new UFC crossover Tonya Evinger, as well as the extreme 1-to-10 odds for Cris "Cyborg" Justino in their women's featherweight title fight, we'll be skipping that analysis. Instead, we'll look at a key welterweight matchup between former champion Robbie Lawler and former lightweight title challenger Donald Cerrone -- an immediate fan favorite of a fight the moment this matchup was announced.
Welterweight matchup: No. 3 Robbie Lawler (-155) vs. No. 6 Donald Cerrone (+135)
Both fighters have defined themselves with dangerous weaponry and a willingness to brawl long enough to deploy the heavy guns. But that style of fighting comes at a cost, and both fighters took long layoffs after their most recent fights, both of which were TKO losses.
Lawler has typically chosen to stand in the pocket and avoid the ground game, so Cerrone's grappling game could either steal a round, or force the shootout fans want to see. If that's the case, it boils down to Lawler's more accurate and evasive striking versus Cowboy's more dangerous and diverse arsenal. Either man is capable of dropping the other, and while Cowboy is more dangerous offensively thanks to his kicks, on paper he's also less resilient. Time and damage have taken a toll on both fighters.
Insider recommends: Lawler's historic resilience is now a big question mark, and a willingness to eat punches against a striker like Cerrone gives the underdog in this fight a solid chance. Cerrone's ground game could also lead to a submission. We'll take Cerrone at plus money, and add the "under 2.5 rounds" at roughly even money as well. There's a lot of finishing potential here, and enough offense that Fight of the Night is also in play. If Cerrone doesn't get the upset, it's because he goes out on his shield.
Welterweight title matchup: Champion Tyron Woodley (-210) vs. No. 1 Demian Maia (+175)
This fight offers a pair of outstanding grapplers, though they work in very different ways. Woodley's near perfect takedown defense and smothering ground and pound contrasts with Maia's best-in-class back control. Knowing that Maia needs the fight on the mat, Woodley will have to be patient before he truly unleashes his strikes. A slip up that gives Maia back control is at the very least a round-losing mistake, and at worst, a fight-ending disaster.
While standing, a similar standoff in styles is likely. Both men are very hesitant in their striking; Maia only engages out of necessity, or when he's trying to distract opponents from his frequent takedown attempts. Meanwhile, Woodley is the hardest hitter in UFC welterweight division, and it's not even close. But that's only when he's pulling the trigger, which can sometimes take a while against measured opponents.
Insider recommends: This fight will begin as a staring contest, but if Woodley's takedown defense keeps the fighters on their feet, his hands can finish it from there. We've recommended Woodley in all three of his UFC title appearances; in each of those fights, Woodley was an underdog, and he's come through twice, plus one push. The streak continues here, though for once we'll have to lay juice for him as the market has finally caught on. Woodley has also scored a knockdown in each of his title appearances against fairly resilient opponents. With a similar kind of fight in play here, against an opponent pushing 40, a prop on Woodley by TKO at -125 is an even better value than a straight play.
Light heavyweight title matchup: Champion Daniel Cormier (+250) vs. No. 1 Jon Jones (-275)
It's been a long wait for this rematch, so the obvious question here is what has changed since their first meeting. At UFC 182 in 2015, Jones had more output and landed more accurately from long range. He was only taken down once, and otherwise controlled the position and range of the fight. Cormier was able to win one round, but never really threatened Jones' path to victory. Two and half years later, Cormier is now 38 years old, and Jones appears to be physically stronger than ever before. But stylistically, not much has changed.
Both men are excellent wrestlers, and although Cormier has the pedigree and solid stats earned mostly against heavyweights, Jones has proven impossible to keep down -- and he has tricky submissions to punish anyone who tries too hard to do so. While their striking metrics are nearly identical, the reach differential exceeding a foot cannot be ignored. It's unfortunate these two are on opposite extremes of frame size for the division, because otherwise, this would be a much fairer fight.
Insider recommends: We recommended Jones the first time around, and we're taking him again. At this price, some of the return value is lost, but Jones still makes for good parlay fodder. Over 4.5 rounds is the expected outcome, and at -165 it's a cheaper price than Jones straight up. The "over" hedges against Cormier finally succeeding on the mat, and doing so for at least three rounds. However, a Cormier finish there is unlikely. For the total, don't pay more than -200 because a Jones finish is still possible if accumulated damage takes a toll on Cormier.
Closing odds and ends
For the budget and parlay hunters, combining Jones straight, Woodley "inside the distance" (or by TKO) and Cris Justino "inside the distance" (or by TKO) offers a +190 return. In addition to the analysis of Jones and Woodley above, Justino has displayed the most superlative striking we've seen to date in the UFC's women's divisions. Her betting odds are north of 1-to-10, but a TKO prop around -600 acts as a small parlay booster.
