How to bet Atlanta-New Orleans
NFL Vegas Experts, ESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
p: Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Spread: Opened Atlanta -3.5; now Atlanta -3.5
Total: Opened 51; now 51.5
Dave Tuley says: On a short week, the home underdog is tempting, especially involving a divisional rivalry, but the Saints are a mess. Their only win is over an undermanned Dallas team and they've been outgained in their other four games. The offenses should dominate all night long, and to help matters, Atlanta WRJulio Jones was upgraded to probable on Wednesday. <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">The Falcons are fourth in the league in total offense (yards per game) while the Saints are seventh, so the over is the way to look, especially since the Saints rank 32nd (dead last) in total defense while the Falcons are 24th in yards allowed per play (5.8). The total is relatively high, but these factors should make it fly over.
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ATS pick: Over (51.5)
Wunderdog says: This total is high. Atlanta's defense under first-year coach Dan Quinn is much-improved. He was the defensive coordinator for Seattle under Pete Carroll and has quickly turned the 5-0 Falcons around. After a horrible couple of years on defense in 2013 and 2014, Atlanta is 20th in yards allowed and 15th in points this season. The real story is the defensive line and the commitment to stopping the run, as the Falcons are No. 1, allowing 78.4 yards rushing per game. They can get after the passer, as well, which will be a key to attacking New Orleans' up-tempo offense.
The Falcons are 15-7-1 under the total against a team with a losing home record and 47-19-3 under after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Saints QB Drew Brees hasn't been 100 percent. He sat out Week 3 while dealing with a bruised rotator cuff. Last week he played but was picked off once, lost a pair of fumbles, and was sacked five times. Take the under.
ATS pick: Under (51.5)
Erin Rynning says: The Dan Quinn era is off to a marvelous start in Atlanta, with the Falcons flashing a 5-0 record. Certainly, their schedule has been on the easier side given the quarterbacks they've faced this season, including Brandon Weeden, Kirk Cousins and Ryan Mallett. The jury is still out on Drew Brees as he is trying to overcome a shoulder injury and has missed one game. Still, he's a savvy, capable competitor, although he'll be without another playmaker,Marques Colston.
The Falcons' passing game was out of sync in their nail-biting win against the Redskins on Sunday. The Falcons have their own concerns with a wide receiver injury; Julio Jones is expected to play, albeit slowed by leg injuries. Importantly, the Saints are fighting to take a step forward on defense with the return of key cogs Keenan Lewis and Jairus Byrd. I'll lean to Brees and the Saints plus the points.
ATS pick: Saints +3.5 (lean)
John Parolin:
288.5 passing yards by Matt Ryan (O/U -110)
Since the Falcons drafted Julio Jones in 2011, Matt Ryan has had no trouble compiling numbers in the Superdome. Ryan has thrown for at least 304 yards in each of his past four road games against the Saints. Jones is listed as probable for the game with hamstring and toe injuries, but he has a history of playing hurt -- including 73 of 80 snaps in Sunday's win after a questionable designation. So on the surface level, the over looks like a good play since there's little concern about Jones' status.
A deeper dive doesn't uncover much evidence to dissuade the over, either. In the Saints' previous four road games (all comfortable overs), their average rank in defensive efficiency was 23rd in the league. From 2011-14, New Orleans also ranked 23rd in QBR allowed, making the Saints a below-average unit, although not at the bottom of the league. This year, the Saints are at the bottom of the league. New Orleans has the second-worst defensive efficiency in football and allows the fourth-best QBR. The last thing to keep in mind about this matchup is the "Thursday curse," but the numbers by and large don't reflect the narrative of hindered production in Thursday games. In the last five years, Sunday games average a 61.4 completion percentage and 7.2 yards per attempt. On Thursdays, those numbers are 61.5 percent and 7.1 yards per attempt.
The pick: Over
72.5 receiving yards by Brandin Cooks (O/U -110)
Saints wide receiver Brandin Cooks has had some lean games this season, including two games with only four receptions for fewer than 50 yards. But the first thing to look for is the targets -- and Brees has continued to look Cooks' way. Cooks has at least seven targets in seven straight games in which he's been active, before and after he missed six games down the stretch last year with a broken thumb. Here are the players with active streaks as long as Cooks:Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr., Cecil Shorts III, Demaryius Thomas andJarvis Landry.
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</article>Cooks cashed in on his chances last week against the Eagles, with five catches for 107 yards and a touchdown. Cooks is clearly the most talented receiving option on the Saints -- so how have top receivers fared against the Falcons? Well, the Falcons aren't exactly locking down opposing studs. This year they've allowed at least 73 receiving yards to wide receiversDeAndre Hopkins, Odell Beckham, Jordan Matthews, Cecil Shorts and Jamison Crowder, and to running backs Lance Dunbar, Shane Vereen and Darren Sproles. Need one final push toward over? Check out the quarterbacks for those five receivers -- Brian Hoyer/Ryan Mallett, Eli Manning, Sam Bradford, Hoyer/Mallett again and Kirk Cousins. Even in a down year by his standards, Drew Brees is easily the best in that bunch -- and the only quarterback without a 73-yard wide receiver against the Falcons? Brandon Weeden. Sold.
The pick: Over
NFL Vegas Experts, ESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
p: Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Spread: Opened Atlanta -3.5; now Atlanta -3.5
Total: Opened 51; now 51.5
Dave Tuley says: On a short week, the home underdog is tempting, especially involving a divisional rivalry, but the Saints are a mess. Their only win is over an undermanned Dallas team and they've been outgained in their other four games. The offenses should dominate all night long, and to help matters, Atlanta WRJulio Jones was upgraded to probable on Wednesday. <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">The Falcons are fourth in the league in total offense (yards per game) while the Saints are seventh, so the over is the way to look, especially since the Saints rank 32nd (dead last) in total defense while the Falcons are 24th in yards allowed per play (5.8). The total is relatively high, but these factors should make it fly over.
</offer>
ATS pick: Over (51.5)
Wunderdog says: This total is high. Atlanta's defense under first-year coach Dan Quinn is much-improved. He was the defensive coordinator for Seattle under Pete Carroll and has quickly turned the 5-0 Falcons around. After a horrible couple of years on defense in 2013 and 2014, Atlanta is 20th in yards allowed and 15th in points this season. The real story is the defensive line and the commitment to stopping the run, as the Falcons are No. 1, allowing 78.4 yards rushing per game. They can get after the passer, as well, which will be a key to attacking New Orleans' up-tempo offense.
The Falcons are 15-7-1 under the total against a team with a losing home record and 47-19-3 under after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Saints QB Drew Brees hasn't been 100 percent. He sat out Week 3 while dealing with a bruised rotator cuff. Last week he played but was picked off once, lost a pair of fumbles, and was sacked five times. Take the under.
ATS pick: Under (51.5)
Erin Rynning says: The Dan Quinn era is off to a marvelous start in Atlanta, with the Falcons flashing a 5-0 record. Certainly, their schedule has been on the easier side given the quarterbacks they've faced this season, including Brandon Weeden, Kirk Cousins and Ryan Mallett. The jury is still out on Drew Brees as he is trying to overcome a shoulder injury and has missed one game. Still, he's a savvy, capable competitor, although he'll be without another playmaker,Marques Colston.
The Falcons' passing game was out of sync in their nail-biting win against the Redskins on Sunday. The Falcons have their own concerns with a wide receiver injury; Julio Jones is expected to play, albeit slowed by leg injuries. Importantly, the Saints are fighting to take a step forward on defense with the return of key cogs Keenan Lewis and Jairus Byrd. I'll lean to Brees and the Saints plus the points.
ATS pick: Saints +3.5 (lean)
John Parolin:
288.5 passing yards by Matt Ryan (O/U -110)
Since the Falcons drafted Julio Jones in 2011, Matt Ryan has had no trouble compiling numbers in the Superdome. Ryan has thrown for at least 304 yards in each of his past four road games against the Saints. Jones is listed as probable for the game with hamstring and toe injuries, but he has a history of playing hurt -- including 73 of 80 snaps in Sunday's win after a questionable designation. So on the surface level, the over looks like a good play since there's little concern about Jones' status.
A deeper dive doesn't uncover much evidence to dissuade the over, either. In the Saints' previous four road games (all comfortable overs), their average rank in defensive efficiency was 23rd in the league. From 2011-14, New Orleans also ranked 23rd in QBR allowed, making the Saints a below-average unit, although not at the bottom of the league. This year, the Saints are at the bottom of the league. New Orleans has the second-worst defensive efficiency in football and allows the fourth-best QBR. The last thing to keep in mind about this matchup is the "Thursday curse," but the numbers by and large don't reflect the narrative of hindered production in Thursday games. In the last five years, Sunday games average a 61.4 completion percentage and 7.2 yards per attempt. On Thursdays, those numbers are 61.5 percent and 7.1 yards per attempt.
The pick: Over
72.5 receiving yards by Brandin Cooks (O/U -110)
Saints wide receiver Brandin Cooks has had some lean games this season, including two games with only four receptions for fewer than 50 yards. But the first thing to look for is the targets -- and Brees has continued to look Cooks' way. Cooks has at least seven targets in seven straight games in which he's been active, before and after he missed six games down the stretch last year with a broken thumb. Here are the players with active streaks as long as Cooks:Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr., Cecil Shorts III, Demaryius Thomas andJarvis Landry.
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</article>Cooks cashed in on his chances last week against the Eagles, with five catches for 107 yards and a touchdown. Cooks is clearly the most talented receiving option on the Saints -- so how have top receivers fared against the Falcons? Well, the Falcons aren't exactly locking down opposing studs. This year they've allowed at least 73 receiving yards to wide receiversDeAndre Hopkins, Odell Beckham, Jordan Matthews, Cecil Shorts and Jamison Crowder, and to running backs Lance Dunbar, Shane Vereen and Darren Sproles. Need one final push toward over? Check out the quarterbacks for those five receivers -- Brian Hoyer/Ryan Mallett, Eli Manning, Sam Bradford, Hoyer/Mallett again and Kirk Cousins. Even in a down year by his standards, Drew Brees is easily the best in that bunch -- and the only quarterback without a 73-yard wide receiver against the Falcons? Brandon Weeden. Sold.
The pick: Over
