[h=1]How to bet the Home Run Derby[/h]Dave Tuley, ESPN Staff Writer
This isn't your father's Home Run Derby.
Most of us weren't around or were very young when the original "Home Run Derby" show aired in 1960 from Wrigley Field in Los Angeles (not the more famous one in Chicago). It featured Henry Aaron, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Harmon Killebrew, Ernie Banks and most of the other top sluggers of that era. More fans have seen the episodes, which featured a grueling nine-inning head-to-head matchup with each player trying to hit as many home runs as possible before getting three outs per inning, on ESPN Classic.
The modern version has been held during the All-Star break since 1985 with the rules being tweaked along the way. Here are the format changes for this year's contest to be held Monday night at Cincinnati's Great American Ballpark:
• Eight players will compete in a single-elimination bracket (seeding was determined by each player's number of home runs on July 7).
• Instead of a set numbers of "outs," each player has five minutes to hit as many home runs as possible.
• A running clock will begin as soon as the first pitch is thrown, but will stop for any home run hit during the final minute of the round (the clock will not restart until a non-home run ball lands or the batter swings and misses).
• Each player can earn up to 90 extra seconds per round; a player will receive an additional 60 seconds if he hits two 420-foot home runs, and an additional 30 seconds if he hits a 475-foot home run.
This Home Run Derby has turned into a popular wagering event, similar to the NBA's dunk contest. Professional bettors mostly avoid it, but that doesn't mean we can't approach it from a sharp's point of view and try to find value. (Note: I wouldn't recommend betting as much as you would on a regular game, more as a fun recreational wager to have a rooting interest.)
As of early Sunday morning, Las Vegas books hadn't posted odds (the Westgate's Ed Salmons said the new format makes it even more random than before), but here are the consensus odds from three offshore sports books (CRIS/Bookmaker, Bovada and the Greek) and I'm sure the odds in Vegas will be similar when they get posted later today or first thing Monday morning.
The Cincinnati Reds' Todd Frazier, participating before the home crowd, is the plus-300 favorite at the Greek and opened as the plus-350 favorite at Bovada before being raised to plus-450. Let's take a look at the eight participants and their chances in relation to their odds.
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Todd Frazier, Cincinnati Reds (+375)
Frazier finished second to Yoenis Cespedes (then of the A's) in last year's Home Run Derby and is now the favorite. Against this field, anything in the range of 3-1 or 4-1 is way too short of a price to play him. Now, for some of the other players, I'm going to downplay their ability to hit 420- or 475-foot home runs because the extra time they receive doesn't guarantee they'll hit more homers, but in Frazier's case he has only four homers of 420 or more feet so far this year and makes his low odds even more unacceptable. Besides, the last player to win the Home Run Derby at his own park was the Chicago Cubs' Ryne Sandberg in 1990, so it's not like home field is a big advantage.
Prince Fielder, Texas Rangers (+425)
Fielder is the most experienced Home Run Derby participant in the field as he's competing for the seventh time and is a two-time champion, trailing only Ken Griffey Jr., who is the only three-time champ. Fielder, who has 68 career Home Run Derby homers, needs just nine to catch all-time leader David Ortiz's 77, according to ESPN Stats & Info. Fielder is a logical choice, especially if you value experience over youth, but until Friday's 438-foot home run off Ian Kennedy, he had not hit a 400-foot home run since May 26.
Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs (+475)
Bryant is a popular betting choice. I'm a die-hard Cubs fans and a big fan of Bryant's, but his price is also too low. I wouldn't be surprised if he leads the competition in line shots in the gap that "would be extra-base hits," but those don't count in this format. Besides, it hasn't been profitable to bet rookies in the Home Run Derby. According to ESPN Stats & Info, Bryant and Joc Pederson are the seventh and eighth rookies to compete in the Home Run Derby. The previous six have hit just a combined nine homers (Wally Joyner's four in 1986 has been the most).
Albert Pujols, Los Angeles Angels (+500)
Pujols has 50 career Home Run Derby dingers, highlighted by the 14 he hit in the second round in 2003 before losing 9-8 to Garret Anderson in the finals. His star power has diminished in recent years as he probably would have been favored just a few years ago, so there might be some value at plus-500. He's certainly returned to form as he's second in the majors with 26 homers, and since June 1, his 15 homers are tied for the most with J.D. Martinez. If you like experience and current form, he looks like the most likely winner.
Joc Pederson, Los Angeles Dodgers (+575)
As we get closer to Monday's festivities, I expect that Pederson's odds will get bet down. You're sure to hear that he has 13 home runs of at least 420 feet this season, most in the majors. Again, credit for that stat goes to ESPN Stats & Info, but I believe people will put too much stock in that. Even if he earns bonus time, there's no guarantee he'll be hitting enough home runs overall for it to matter. And as stated in Bryant's entry above, rookies don't fare well in this competition. Dodgers have also traditionally underperformed with no titles and, in fact, Hee-Seop Choi holds the Dodgers' record with five homers in 2005 (and he didn't make it to the second round). And don't forget that Yasiel Puig was a popular bet a year ago -- he opened around 6-1 and was bet down to around 9-2 -- and went 0-fer. That's right, zero homers.
Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs (+650)
Rizzo is the "other" Cub in the Derby, and he does kind of fit the mold of the under-the-radar slugger who sometimes wins this competition. He's also left-handed, and ESPN Stats & Info says that five of the last seven, seven of the last 10 and 14 of the last 19 winners have been lefties. So I wouldn't try to talk anyone out of taking a flier on Rizzo. However, I don't like his draw, because in the first round he faces ...
Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays (+725)
Donaldson competed for the first time last year and hit just three homers, but I think he'll benefit from the experience. He does have eight homers that have gone more than 425 feet, second most in this competition to Pederson. I believe he looks even more like the up-and-coming slugger who can steal this event. There is one concern, as he left Saturday's game with flu-like symptoms and he wasn't in the starting lineup Sunday. If he is scratched from the Home Run Derby, that would wreak havoc on the odds. But until I know more, I'm counting on it being a 24-hour bug and him being ready to go Monday night.
Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles (+800)
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</article>Machado isn't a rookie, but he's the youngest player in the field at 23 years old and 7 days (which would make him the youngest champion if he were to win). But the odds are against him. He has only one homer over 420 feet and is going against Pederson in the first round. I wouldn't be shocked by an upset, but he doesn't look likely to go the distance. Since these results can be so random, it's tempting to take the longest shot in the field, but at 8-1, the odds seem too short for Machado.
[h=2]Tuley's Take[/h]As mentioned earlier, the favorite rarely wins these Home Run Derby events. Last year, Cespedes probably should have been favored as the defending champion but he was no better than the third betting choice behind Giancarlo Stanton and Puig, so it can be argued that this is a rather soft market and that your guess is as good as the oddsmakers'.
Best bet: Donaldson at plus-725 (but keep an eye on his health, or make sure your book has the disclaimer "must start for action").
Also worth a shot: Pujols at plus-500.
My top entry in MLB.com's free contest (or to be used in possible head-to-head props): Pujols over Bryant, Pederson over Machado, Donaldson over Rizzo, Fielder over Frazier; Pujols over Pederson, Donaldson over Fielder; Donaldson over Pujols.
This isn't your father's Home Run Derby.
Most of us weren't around or were very young when the original "Home Run Derby" show aired in 1960 from Wrigley Field in Los Angeles (not the more famous one in Chicago). It featured Henry Aaron, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Harmon Killebrew, Ernie Banks and most of the other top sluggers of that era. More fans have seen the episodes, which featured a grueling nine-inning head-to-head matchup with each player trying to hit as many home runs as possible before getting three outs per inning, on ESPN Classic.
The modern version has been held during the All-Star break since 1985 with the rules being tweaked along the way. Here are the format changes for this year's contest to be held Monday night at Cincinnati's Great American Ballpark:
• Eight players will compete in a single-elimination bracket (seeding was determined by each player's number of home runs on July 7).
• Instead of a set numbers of "outs," each player has five minutes to hit as many home runs as possible.
• A running clock will begin as soon as the first pitch is thrown, but will stop for any home run hit during the final minute of the round (the clock will not restart until a non-home run ball lands or the batter swings and misses).
• Each player can earn up to 90 extra seconds per round; a player will receive an additional 60 seconds if he hits two 420-foot home runs, and an additional 30 seconds if he hits a 475-foot home run.
This Home Run Derby has turned into a popular wagering event, similar to the NBA's dunk contest. Professional bettors mostly avoid it, but that doesn't mean we can't approach it from a sharp's point of view and try to find value. (Note: I wouldn't recommend betting as much as you would on a regular game, more as a fun recreational wager to have a rooting interest.)
As of early Sunday morning, Las Vegas books hadn't posted odds (the Westgate's Ed Salmons said the new format makes it even more random than before), but here are the consensus odds from three offshore sports books (CRIS/Bookmaker, Bovada and the Greek) and I'm sure the odds in Vegas will be similar when they get posted later today or first thing Monday morning.
The Cincinnati Reds' Todd Frazier, participating before the home crowd, is the plus-300 favorite at the Greek and opened as the plus-350 favorite at Bovada before being raised to plus-450. Let's take a look at the eight participants and their chances in relation to their odds.
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Frazier finished second to Yoenis Cespedes (then of the A's) in last year's Home Run Derby and is now the favorite. Against this field, anything in the range of 3-1 or 4-1 is way too short of a price to play him. Now, for some of the other players, I'm going to downplay their ability to hit 420- or 475-foot home runs because the extra time they receive doesn't guarantee they'll hit more homers, but in Frazier's case he has only four homers of 420 or more feet so far this year and makes his low odds even more unacceptable. Besides, the last player to win the Home Run Derby at his own park was the Chicago Cubs' Ryne Sandberg in 1990, so it's not like home field is a big advantage.
Fielder is the most experienced Home Run Derby participant in the field as he's competing for the seventh time and is a two-time champion, trailing only Ken Griffey Jr., who is the only three-time champ. Fielder, who has 68 career Home Run Derby homers, needs just nine to catch all-time leader David Ortiz's 77, according to ESPN Stats & Info. Fielder is a logical choice, especially if you value experience over youth, but until Friday's 438-foot home run off Ian Kennedy, he had not hit a 400-foot home run since May 26.
Bryant is a popular betting choice. I'm a die-hard Cubs fans and a big fan of Bryant's, but his price is also too low. I wouldn't be surprised if he leads the competition in line shots in the gap that "would be extra-base hits," but those don't count in this format. Besides, it hasn't been profitable to bet rookies in the Home Run Derby. According to ESPN Stats & Info, Bryant and Joc Pederson are the seventh and eighth rookies to compete in the Home Run Derby. The previous six have hit just a combined nine homers (Wally Joyner's four in 1986 has been the most).
Pujols has 50 career Home Run Derby dingers, highlighted by the 14 he hit in the second round in 2003 before losing 9-8 to Garret Anderson in the finals. His star power has diminished in recent years as he probably would have been favored just a few years ago, so there might be some value at plus-500. He's certainly returned to form as he's second in the majors with 26 homers, and since June 1, his 15 homers are tied for the most with J.D. Martinez. If you like experience and current form, he looks like the most likely winner.
As we get closer to Monday's festivities, I expect that Pederson's odds will get bet down. You're sure to hear that he has 13 home runs of at least 420 feet this season, most in the majors. Again, credit for that stat goes to ESPN Stats & Info, but I believe people will put too much stock in that. Even if he earns bonus time, there's no guarantee he'll be hitting enough home runs overall for it to matter. And as stated in Bryant's entry above, rookies don't fare well in this competition. Dodgers have also traditionally underperformed with no titles and, in fact, Hee-Seop Choi holds the Dodgers' record with five homers in 2005 (and he didn't make it to the second round). And don't forget that Yasiel Puig was a popular bet a year ago -- he opened around 6-1 and was bet down to around 9-2 -- and went 0-fer. That's right, zero homers.
Rizzo is the "other" Cub in the Derby, and he does kind of fit the mold of the under-the-radar slugger who sometimes wins this competition. He's also left-handed, and ESPN Stats & Info says that five of the last seven, seven of the last 10 and 14 of the last 19 winners have been lefties. So I wouldn't try to talk anyone out of taking a flier on Rizzo. However, I don't like his draw, because in the first round he faces ...
Donaldson competed for the first time last year and hit just three homers, but I think he'll benefit from the experience. He does have eight homers that have gone more than 425 feet, second most in this competition to Pederson. I believe he looks even more like the up-and-coming slugger who can steal this event. There is one concern, as he left Saturday's game with flu-like symptoms and he wasn't in the starting lineup Sunday. If he is scratched from the Home Run Derby, that would wreak havoc on the odds. But until I know more, I'm counting on it being a 24-hour bug and him being ready to go Monday night.
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</article>Machado isn't a rookie, but he's the youngest player in the field at 23 years old and 7 days (which would make him the youngest champion if he were to win). But the odds are against him. He has only one homer over 420 feet and is going against Pederson in the first round. I wouldn't be shocked by an upset, but he doesn't look likely to go the distance. Since these results can be so random, it's tempting to take the longest shot in the field, but at 8-1, the odds seem too short for Machado.
[h=2]Tuley's Take[/h]As mentioned earlier, the favorite rarely wins these Home Run Derby events. Last year, Cespedes probably should have been favored as the defending champion but he was no better than the third betting choice behind Giancarlo Stanton and Puig, so it can be argued that this is a rather soft market and that your guess is as good as the oddsmakers'.
Best bet: Donaldson at plus-725 (but keep an eye on his health, or make sure your book has the disclaimer "must start for action").
Also worth a shot: Pujols at plus-500.
My top entry in MLB.com's free contest (or to be used in possible head-to-head props): Pujols over Bryant, Pederson over Machado, Donaldson over Rizzo, Fielder over Frazier; Pujols over Pederson, Donaldson over Fielder; Donaldson over Pujols.
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