[h=1]How to bet Dallas-Washington[/h]NFL Vegas Experts, Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts -- Dave Tuley and Erin Rynning -- are here to provide analysis on Monday night's game, and John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information gives the best prop bets in ESPN Chalk's Monday Night Football primer.
[h=2]Matchup: Dallas Cowboys atWashington Redskins[/h]Spread: Opened Washington -3; now Washington -3.5
Total: Opened 42; now 42
[h=2]ATS picks[/h]Dave Tuley:
Public perception: The Redskins are atop the NFC East, but the public support here is just as much based on the Cowboys losing Tony Romo again, as they were 0-7 SU (1-6 ATS) after losing him earlier in the season.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Wiseguys' view: This line opened as low as Washington minus-3 at the Westgate and minus-3.5 or minus-4 at most other books. Early support came for the Redskins, but the sharps jumped in on Dallas at plus-4.5 and it looks as if this is settling in at minus-4.
Tuley's take: I obviously know of the Cowboys' woes without Romo, but I still think this line (which was Dallas minus-3 in advance wagering at the Westgate last week) has been overadjusted. The NFL Vegas Rankings still have Dallas (which is No. 7 in total defense compared with No. 22 for Washington, with both teams in the upper 20s in total offense) half a point better than the Redskins on a neutral field, so I don't think this line should be even as high as a field goal. This is also another case of a mediocre team being put in the role of favorite (in Washington's only game as a favorite this season, it lost outright to Tampa Bay).
ATS pick: Cowboys.
Erin Rynning:
No question these are two teams which look to be going in two completely opposite directions as the year closes. The Cowboys have dropped eight of their last nine, and by losing Romo, the season is relatively out the window. Meanwhile, the Redskins are actually playing for something in December, even if it's a watered-down NFC East title.
However, there's still a question of value in terms of the point spread, and that's on the Cowboys' side Monday night. Again, it's been a brutal run for the Cowboys, but they continue to hold their own at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football. Their NFL-worst minus-12 turnover ratio continues to hold them back from the winners circle. The Redskins are below average in running/throwing the football, and stopping the run/pass. Those are not exactly the attributes one wants to see from a team favored by more than a field goal. I'll side with the Cowboys.
ATS pick: Cowboys
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]245.5 pass yards by Kirk Cousins (-110 O/U)
John Parolin: For passing yards props, finding a middle ground between what the defense allows and the offense achieves can highlight value. Dallas' most applicable sample has to include Greg Hardy -- since Week 5 (Dallas' first game with Hardy), the Cowboys are averaging 58.9 defensive snaps on the field per game. This season, the Redskins are averaging 68.2 snaps per play, so an average between the two gives Cousins approximately 63.6 snaps to work with.
Washington has dropped back on a fairly conservative 59.8 percent of plays, so approximately 38 dropbacks. Factoring in sacks (6.3 sack percentage by the Dallas defense and 4.1 by the Redskins' offense, so use 5.2 percent) gets Cousins 36 pass attempts. Using Washington's 7.1 yards per attempt average puts Cousins at 255 yards in this matchup. Not enough? Factor in that Dallas opponents have dropped back to pass more often than the Redskins this season (by Week 13, a decent indicator of how teams attack the Cowboys). Finally, the Dallas defense is allowing 7.4 yards per attempt -- using that instead of Washington's 7.1 average would bump Cousins even further over.
The play: Over
65.5 receiving yards by DeSean Jackson (-110 O/U)
John Parolin: No one's accusing DeSean Jackson of being a high-volume target. Possibly the league's ultimate boom-or-bust proposition, Jackson has had more than three receptions in one of his five games this season (five receptions against the Panthers in Week 11).
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>But there may not be anyone in the league more adept at getting the most out of his limited looks. Ask the Giants: Jackson would have put himself 3 yards away from an over on one play last week. His 63-yard receiving touchdown was the 18th touchdown of at least 50 yards since he entered the league in 2008, most of any player in that span. So how do the Cowboys stack up at limiting big plays, so vital to Jackson's appeal? They're one of two teams in the league to not allow a single completion on throws at least 30 yards downfield. The Panthers, Saints and Giants all have allowed at least six. They've allowed only eight receptions on throws at least 20 yards downfield, tied for sixth fewest in the league. With a 40-yard reception in each of his last three games, Jackson is not sneaking up on anybody.
The play: Under
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts -- Dave Tuley and Erin Rynning -- are here to provide analysis on Monday night's game, and John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information gives the best prop bets in ESPN Chalk's Monday Night Football primer.
Total: Opened 42; now 42
[h=2]ATS picks[/h]Dave Tuley:
Public perception: The Redskins are atop the NFC East, but the public support here is just as much based on the Cowboys losing Tony Romo again, as they were 0-7 SU (1-6 ATS) after losing him earlier in the season.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Wiseguys' view: This line opened as low as Washington minus-3 at the Westgate and minus-3.5 or minus-4 at most other books. Early support came for the Redskins, but the sharps jumped in on Dallas at plus-4.5 and it looks as if this is settling in at minus-4.
Tuley's take: I obviously know of the Cowboys' woes without Romo, but I still think this line (which was Dallas minus-3 in advance wagering at the Westgate last week) has been overadjusted. The NFL Vegas Rankings still have Dallas (which is No. 7 in total defense compared with No. 22 for Washington, with both teams in the upper 20s in total offense) half a point better than the Redskins on a neutral field, so I don't think this line should be even as high as a field goal. This is also another case of a mediocre team being put in the role of favorite (in Washington's only game as a favorite this season, it lost outright to Tampa Bay).
ATS pick: Cowboys.
Erin Rynning:
No question these are two teams which look to be going in two completely opposite directions as the year closes. The Cowboys have dropped eight of their last nine, and by losing Romo, the season is relatively out the window. Meanwhile, the Redskins are actually playing for something in December, even if it's a watered-down NFC East title.
However, there's still a question of value in terms of the point spread, and that's on the Cowboys' side Monday night. Again, it's been a brutal run for the Cowboys, but they continue to hold their own at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football. Their NFL-worst minus-12 turnover ratio continues to hold them back from the winners circle. The Redskins are below average in running/throwing the football, and stopping the run/pass. Those are not exactly the attributes one wants to see from a team favored by more than a field goal. I'll side with the Cowboys.
ATS pick: Cowboys
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]245.5 pass yards by Kirk Cousins (-110 O/U)
John Parolin: For passing yards props, finding a middle ground between what the defense allows and the offense achieves can highlight value. Dallas' most applicable sample has to include Greg Hardy -- since Week 5 (Dallas' first game with Hardy), the Cowboys are averaging 58.9 defensive snaps on the field per game. This season, the Redskins are averaging 68.2 snaps per play, so an average between the two gives Cousins approximately 63.6 snaps to work with.
Washington has dropped back on a fairly conservative 59.8 percent of plays, so approximately 38 dropbacks. Factoring in sacks (6.3 sack percentage by the Dallas defense and 4.1 by the Redskins' offense, so use 5.2 percent) gets Cousins 36 pass attempts. Using Washington's 7.1 yards per attempt average puts Cousins at 255 yards in this matchup. Not enough? Factor in that Dallas opponents have dropped back to pass more often than the Redskins this season (by Week 13, a decent indicator of how teams attack the Cowboys). Finally, the Dallas defense is allowing 7.4 yards per attempt -- using that instead of Washington's 7.1 average would bump Cousins even further over.
The play: Over
65.5 receiving yards by DeSean Jackson (-110 O/U)
John Parolin: No one's accusing DeSean Jackson of being a high-volume target. Possibly the league's ultimate boom-or-bust proposition, Jackson has had more than three receptions in one of his five games this season (five receptions against the Panthers in Week 11).
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>But there may not be anyone in the league more adept at getting the most out of his limited looks. Ask the Giants: Jackson would have put himself 3 yards away from an over on one play last week. His 63-yard receiving touchdown was the 18th touchdown of at least 50 yards since he entered the league in 2008, most of any player in that span. So how do the Cowboys stack up at limiting big plays, so vital to Jackson's appeal? They're one of two teams in the league to not allow a single completion on throws at least 30 yards downfield. The Panthers, Saints and Giants all have allowed at least six. They've allowed only eight receptions on throws at least 20 yards downfield, tied for sixth fewest in the league. With a 40-yard reception in each of his last three games, Jackson is not sneaking up on anybody.
The play: Under
