[h=1]How to bet Baltimore vs. Arizona[/h]NFL Vegas Experts, ESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts -- Dave Tuley and Erin Rynning -- are here to provide analysis on the Monday night game and John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information gives the best prop bets in ESPN Chalk's Monday Night Football primer.
[h=2]Matchup: Baltimore Ravens atArizona Cardinals[/h]Spread: Opened Arizona -7; now Arizona -9
Total: Opened 48.5; now 49
[h=2]ATS picks[/h]Dave Tuley says:
Public perception: The Cardinals lost to the Steelers, letting down a lot of bettors, but the public is back on them again. Of course, no team has probably burned more bettors this year than the Ravens, who are 1-5 SU and 0-5-1 ATS.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Wiseguys' view: The sharps joined the squares on the Cardinals at -7 and even at -7.5 and -8, but when it steamed to 10 at some books, we've seen the buyback on the Ravens.
Tuley's take: It's hard to pull the trigger on Baltimore, but this line has become overinflated. Besides, last week when I picked the Steelers over the Cardinals, I pointed out that the Steelers beat the Rams, who beat the Cardinals. Well, the Ravens' lone win was over the Steelers, so we know they can compete. It's mostly a matter of turning around that minus-5 turnover margin.
The pick: Ravens
Erin Rynning says: I expected the Ravens to take a step backward this season, most notably on offense. However, it's their defense that's been atrocious since the loss of Terrell Suggs. Since he went down in their Week 1 opener against the Broncos, the Ravens have allowed 28.6 points per game. Still, even more worrisome is that those five games were against quarterbacks Derek Carr, Andy Dalton, Michael Vick, Josh McCown and Colin Kaepernick. That's not exactly a list of NFL stars.
The test will be much sturdier in this matchup against Carson Palmer and his array of weapons. The point spread is the great equalizer, though, and the Cardinals have taken money off the opening line of around 7, which makes this game unplayable at its current price.
The pick: Pass
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]274.5 passing yards by Carson Palmer (O/U -110)
John Parolin says: Palmer and the Cardinals offense are equipped to go off if necessary. Palmer has thrown for at least 307 yards in four of his six games this year. Let's check out the two he didn't.
In Week 2, Palmer was 17-of-24 for 185 yards, and the Cardinals still won 48-23. Arizona got special teams and defensive touchdowns against Jay Cutler's Bears (yes, when a pick-six is involved, it becomes "Jay Cutler's Bears"). Up 22 points with 6:13 to go in the third, there was little incentive to pass. The Cardinals won 42-17 in Week 5, taking a 28-7 halftime lead and 35-7 with 6:31 to go in the third. Again, no incentive to continue throwing.
Now, here's what the depleted Ravens defense has done this year without Matt Elam and Suggs -- Dalton, Carr, Kaepernick and McCown have all thrown for at least 340 yards. The only quarterbacks that were below 340 passing yards? Vick, in his first start of the season on a short week, and Peyton Manning in Week 1 (when Gary Kubiak hadn't figured out lining Manning up under center was a terrible idea). Barring non-offensive touchdowns, Palmer could have this through three quarters.
The play: Over
Will Larry Fitzgerald score a TD? (Yes/No -110)
Without question, Fitzgerald is one of this season's best stories. Since Kurt Warner retired, Fitzgerald has been toiling with the likes of John Skelton, Kevin Kolb and playoff starter Ryan Lindley (yikes). This year, Fitzgerald has Palmer back and has caught a league-high six touchdowns this season. Six in six games sounds like a great endorsement for a feel-good "yes," but it's unfortunately not that simple.
Fitzgerald is a 3-3 split between "yes" and "no" this season, thanks to his evisceration of the Bears in Week 2 (three touchdowns) and a two-score performance a week later against the 49ers. But what about the Ravens?
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>Baltimore has played the Broncos, Raiders, Bengals, Steelers, Browns and 49ers. The Ravens have surrendered 11 passing touchdowns, so there's opportunity here -- it just may not be for Fitzgerald. Consider the only No. 1 wide receivers to catch touchdowns against the Ravens were A.J. Green (Week 2) and Amari Cooper (Week 3). The Ravens allowed no scores byAntonio Brown, Anquan Boldin or any wide receiver on the Browns in the last 3 weeks. Since Week 4, the Cardinals' red zone offense has shifted away from Fitzgerald. Both John Brown (four) and Michael Floyd (three) have more red zone targets than Fitzgerald does (two) -- and he's tied with wideout Jaron Brown. Chances are Arizona will score, they just have too many other options -- and if that equals winning, chances are Fitzgerald will feel fine about it.
The play: No
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts -- Dave Tuley and Erin Rynning -- are here to provide analysis on the Monday night game and John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information gives the best prop bets in ESPN Chalk's Monday Night Football primer.
Total: Opened 48.5; now 49
[h=2]ATS picks[/h]Dave Tuley says:
Public perception: The Cardinals lost to the Steelers, letting down a lot of bettors, but the public is back on them again. Of course, no team has probably burned more bettors this year than the Ravens, who are 1-5 SU and 0-5-1 ATS.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Wiseguys' view: The sharps joined the squares on the Cardinals at -7 and even at -7.5 and -8, but when it steamed to 10 at some books, we've seen the buyback on the Ravens.
Tuley's take: It's hard to pull the trigger on Baltimore, but this line has become overinflated. Besides, last week when I picked the Steelers over the Cardinals, I pointed out that the Steelers beat the Rams, who beat the Cardinals. Well, the Ravens' lone win was over the Steelers, so we know they can compete. It's mostly a matter of turning around that minus-5 turnover margin.
The pick: Ravens
Erin Rynning says: I expected the Ravens to take a step backward this season, most notably on offense. However, it's their defense that's been atrocious since the loss of Terrell Suggs. Since he went down in their Week 1 opener against the Broncos, the Ravens have allowed 28.6 points per game. Still, even more worrisome is that those five games were against quarterbacks Derek Carr, Andy Dalton, Michael Vick, Josh McCown and Colin Kaepernick. That's not exactly a list of NFL stars.
The test will be much sturdier in this matchup against Carson Palmer and his array of weapons. The point spread is the great equalizer, though, and the Cardinals have taken money off the opening line of around 7, which makes this game unplayable at its current price.
The pick: Pass
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]274.5 passing yards by Carson Palmer (O/U -110)
John Parolin says: Palmer and the Cardinals offense are equipped to go off if necessary. Palmer has thrown for at least 307 yards in four of his six games this year. Let's check out the two he didn't.
In Week 2, Palmer was 17-of-24 for 185 yards, and the Cardinals still won 48-23. Arizona got special teams and defensive touchdowns against Jay Cutler's Bears (yes, when a pick-six is involved, it becomes "Jay Cutler's Bears"). Up 22 points with 6:13 to go in the third, there was little incentive to pass. The Cardinals won 42-17 in Week 5, taking a 28-7 halftime lead and 35-7 with 6:31 to go in the third. Again, no incentive to continue throwing.
Now, here's what the depleted Ravens defense has done this year without Matt Elam and Suggs -- Dalton, Carr, Kaepernick and McCown have all thrown for at least 340 yards. The only quarterbacks that were below 340 passing yards? Vick, in his first start of the season on a short week, and Peyton Manning in Week 1 (when Gary Kubiak hadn't figured out lining Manning up under center was a terrible idea). Barring non-offensive touchdowns, Palmer could have this through three quarters.
The play: Over
Will Larry Fitzgerald score a TD? (Yes/No -110)
Without question, Fitzgerald is one of this season's best stories. Since Kurt Warner retired, Fitzgerald has been toiling with the likes of John Skelton, Kevin Kolb and playoff starter Ryan Lindley (yikes). This year, Fitzgerald has Palmer back and has caught a league-high six touchdowns this season. Six in six games sounds like a great endorsement for a feel-good "yes," but it's unfortunately not that simple.
Fitzgerald is a 3-3 split between "yes" and "no" this season, thanks to his evisceration of the Bears in Week 2 (three touchdowns) and a two-score performance a week later against the 49ers. But what about the Ravens?
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>Baltimore has played the Broncos, Raiders, Bengals, Steelers, Browns and 49ers. The Ravens have surrendered 11 passing touchdowns, so there's opportunity here -- it just may not be for Fitzgerald. Consider the only No. 1 wide receivers to catch touchdowns against the Ravens were A.J. Green (Week 2) and Amari Cooper (Week 3). The Ravens allowed no scores byAntonio Brown, Anquan Boldin or any wide receiver on the Browns in the last 3 weeks. Since Week 4, the Cardinals' red zone offense has shifted away from Fitzgerald. Both John Brown (four) and Michael Floyd (three) have more red zone targets than Fitzgerald does (two) -- and he's tied with wideout Jaron Brown. Chances are Arizona will score, they just have too many other options -- and if that equals winning, chances are Fitzgerald will feel fine about it.
The play: No
