How to approach Iran

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Today's Washington Post has a letter from seven foreign diplomats (including Madeline Albright) on how to deal with Iran. No wonder the UN is a philosophically bankrupt mess. Old diplomats never die...they just form circle jerks.

My comments below are in bold, but I'd love to hear how the left would deal with Iran. XP, lander, Ba'athist Doc...pony up.


How to Approach Iran

Monday, December 13, 2004; Page A21

The following article was signed by Madeleine Albright, secretary of state in the Clinton administration, and by seven former foreign ministers: Robin Cook of Britain, Hubert Vedrine of France, Lamberto Dini of Italy, Lloyd Axworthy of Canada, Niels Helveg Petersen of Denmark, Ana Palacio of Spain and Jozias van Aartsen of the Netherlands.

We offer the following ideas on obtaining full cooperation from the Iranians.

First, the United States and Europe must be clear about their collective purpose. The Iranians have made splitting the Atlantic partnership their modus operandi, hoping that disagreements between the United States and Europe will buy them the time to progress down the nuclear path to the point of irreversibility. In order to counteract this strategy, European and U.S. policymakers must repeatedly and jointly articulate that they seek to hold Iran to the obligations it has accepted under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to refrain from building nuclear arms. In the same breath, American and European heads of state must emphasize that the West does not seek to deny Iran the right to a peaceful civilian nuclear energy program under the necessary safeguards.

That's right. The Iranians, who sit on one of the largest deposits of oil in the world, are only interested in a 'peaceful civilian' nuclear program.


Second, the major nuclear suppliers (Russia, the United States and Europe) should provide a firm guarantee to supply fresh reactor fuel for civilian nuclear power and to retrieve and dispose of spent fuel in exchange for Iran's agreement to permanently forswear its own nuclear fuel-cycle capabilities, including enrichment, reprocessing, uranium conversion and heavy-water production.

Does this sound familiar? Instead of having them make their own nuclear fuel, lets just f**king give it to them. Madeline, you idiotic s**t...isn't that what you just did with North Korea? How well did that work out? After that, now you want to help the Iranians speed up their nuclear program by supplying them fuel. Grand.


Third, the Bush administration should support the recent agreement the three European countries negotiated with the Iranians as an important first step. While it is unclear whether this deal will ultimately halt Iran's nuclear ambitions, only a unified approach will enable Europe and the United States to find out. Washington should put its full support behind this diplomatic effort and consider launching commercial and diplomatic engagement with Iran. That country's political leadership and culture have changed dramatically over the past two decades and are much more complex than many realize.

Yes, and things improved dramatically since the old man croaked and his psycho son took over in North Korea. The same is bound to happen in Iran.


Understanding the various political operatives inside Iran and their motivations requires the United States to instigate face-to-face interaction. Doing so could bring direct benefits to the United States as disagreements over the nuclear question need not, for example, disrupt efforts to achieve cooperation on such matters as narcotics enforcement, Iraq, the fight against terrorism and peace in the Middle East.

If we could just all have a group hug, maybe the Iranian Mullahs would stop being the biggest supporter of terror and stop supporting the guys killing us in Iraq.


If the Americans need to increase their support for diplomatic efforts, Europeans must prove to the Iranians that severe political and economic consequences will result if Iran does not renounce the nuclear weapons option.

Translation: when they tell us to go f**k ourselves, we can get together and fire back at them with a strongly worded letter. That should really make them stop and re-think.


In the event that diplomacy fails and Iran decides not to abandon its efforts to develop nuclear weapons, Europeans should be ready for alternative courses of action, including going to the U.N. Security Council, and they should repeatedly stress their willingness to act.

This now borders on hilariously funny. When the strongly worded letter inevitably fails to work, then we'll really come out guns-a-blazing by going to the Security Council and getting...

=========sound the trumpets==============

A RESOLUTION.

My goodness...talk about playing serious hardball.


The transatlantic community should not be trying to force a confrontation with Iran, but we must not fear one if that's what is necessary to prevent the introduction of another nuclear weapons program into the combustible Middle East.

Don't fear? Now that is really a strong stance.


The interests of every nation will be served by an arrangement that gives Iran the civilian nuclear program it says it wants and the international community the insurance it needs.

Perhaps we should review again: Iran is sitting on a pool of oil, and has NO civilian need for nuclear energy. How is this sorry ass proposal of your's going to accomplish anything, Madeline?


Together, with sufficient patience and resolve, Europe and America must push as hard as possible to achieve that outcome and stand together, as well, in the event the effort does not succeed.

Put me in the 'favoring standing behind Germany and France in their effort' group.
 

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These Neville Chamberlain types will only survive because of men like Rumsfeld and President Bush. This is another clear example of why liberalism is a mental disorder. The Mullahs in Iran will say and sign anything while they plot to cut our throats, it means nothing.
 
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Gameface:

That is a funny comment!

A "Mental Disorder" ???

Glad to see the Holiday Seaon brings out the best in ya!
 

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What did Clinton do with Lybia that encouraged them to eventually stop making WMD et al? (Uh, no, Bush does NOT get credit for that.)

It is laughable that the US, of all countries, after occupying/installing puppet regimes to three of Iran's bordering nations, doesn't understand why Iran feels an urgent need to defend itself.

Which brings me to my answer: if you want countries to stop building up such destructive weapons programmes, you might want to stop giving them reasons to do so. Had the US followed through on their promise to allow Shi'ia control in Iraq, the Iranians may have been able to trust this administration. But the US didn't, so the Iranians don't. Had the US not backed Israel on every turn, sold bunker busters to them in September, and routinely sent foreign aid for armaments (including nuclear weapons) maybe Iran would be a country you could negotiate with.

You guys are your own worst enemy.

So, yeah, just blow them off the face of the map. That should solve everything. Obliteration is peace, isn't it?
 

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What did Clinton do with Lybia that encouraged them to eventually stop making WMD et al? (Uh, no, Bush does NOT get credit for that.)

You gotta love these interesting timelines of the left. Clinton is out of office for three years, and he was the reason a country gave up their weapons programs. Bush was in office for a little over seven months and was fully responsible for 9-11. Nice. Anyways...

Um, to answer your question...nothing actually. Libya abandoned their nuclear program AFTER the US invaded Iraq in 2003. What in the blue hell did Clinton have to do with that?!? Why did Khadafi decide to allow American and British weapons inspectors into his country...in honor of Bill Clinton? Khadafi spent billions on nukes throughout the 90s (when Clinton was in office, ironically)...but still folded his cards after seeing what the USA was capable of. So score one for W for getting a country to play by the rules. Which brings me to...


It is laughable that the US, of all countries, after occupying/installing puppet regimes to three of Iran's bordering nations, doesn't understand why Iran feels an urgent need to defend itself.

Two of which were supporters of terrorism. Saddam gave money to families of suicide bombers, and Afghanistan harbored one of the most dangerous terrorist groups in the world. It's not as if we just went there for the hell of it. W was serious when he said he was going after terrorists.

If Iran doesn't want to suffer the same fate, then it's simple. Follow the rules. Don't make nukes, don't support terror. We'll leave you be.


if you want countries to stop building up such destructive weapons programmes, you might want to stop giving them reasons to do so.

The 'reasons' for not building nukes already exist in the form of international laws. Are those not good enough? If they aren't, then what the hell is the point of having them on the books? Or...which laws on the books should we really enforce, and which laws should we just ignore?


Had the US not backed Israel on every turn,

Bzzzzzzzzzzt. Wrong. Stop right there, cowpoke. Best read up on something called the Oslo Accords. We were essentially screwing the Israelis by giving into almost every single demand of Arafat, and yet that still wasn't good enough. I don't support every policy of our's towards Israel, but we're not exactly their b*tch either.
 

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JDeuce said:
If Iran doesn't want to suffer the same fate, then it's simple. Follow the rules. Don't make nukes, don't support terror. We'll leave you be.
Saddam didn't have nukes and the 'terror' he supported was never really a reason to invade. If it were, you guys would've handed Saudi Arabia's ass to them by now.

asons' for not building nukes already exist in the form of international laws. Are those not good enough?
Oh, that's fúcking rich. International laws are certainly good enough for me and I'm going to remind you that you once made a statement indicating you supported following international standards.

Or did you just mean the laws that apply to everyone but you guys??

which laws on the books should we really enforce, and which laws should we just ignore?
First, who appointed you guys GloboCop?
Second, you've already ignore the non-proliferation treaties and cancelled the ABM treaty. You're off your rocker if you can't understand why Iran feels boxed in.

I don't want Iran to have nukes, either. But where I'm consistent and you're a hypocrite is that I don't think anyone should have them. I don't think you're going to get complicity from nations if you're threatening their sovereignty at every turn.

Bzzzzzzzzzzt. Wrong. Stop right there, cowpoke. Best read up on something called the Oslo Accords. We were essentially screwing the Israelis by giving into almost every single demand of Arafat, and yet that still wasn't good enough. I don't support every policy of our's towards Israel, but we're not exactly their b*tch either.
Pre-Bush, no, you were not their bítch. Since Bush ... well, let's just say Sharon seems to be giving you guys the lube-less version of diplomacy. Besides, I specifically mentioned the bunker busters and the military aid and the nukes. No rebuttal on that? My point was in regard to Iran feeling threatened by Israel, not the Palestinians.

Like you, Iran has the right to defend themselves. Since you're giving them all these extra reasons to do so, you might want to take a step back or two before you engage in trying to 'solve the Iranian problem.'

I'm surprised you've not mentioned Russia yet. They're going to be major players in this mess, after all. They've invested several billion already into Iran's nuclear programme. Who knows if they're willing to walk away from that, especially given their huge gas trade and Russia's current upset with the US re: their elections.
 
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Here is a rundown (has not been updated for 2 yrs) of Iranian military ... and a very detailed outline of striking Iran:

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iran-strikes.htm

<TABLE width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD width="14%">Country</TD><TD width="14%">Personnel </TD><TD width="14%">Tanks</TD><TD width="14%">APCs</TD><TD width="14%">Artillery</TD><TD width="15%">Aircraft</TD><TD width="15%">Warships<?XML:NAMESPACE PREFIX = O /><O:p> </O:p></TD></TR><TR><TD width="14%">Iran </TD><TD width="14%">500,000</TD><TD width="14%">1,500</TD><TD width="14%">1,500</TD><TD width="14%">2,000</TD><TD width="15%">220</TD><TD width="15%">25<O:p> </O:p></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>



WASHINGTON [MENL] -- The U.S. Defense Department was said to have completed simulated war games to determine the feasibility of destroying Iran's nuclear weapons program.

The Atlantic Monthly magazine reported in its latest issue that the Pentagon held simulations of a U.S. military strike on Iranian bases and nuclear facilities.

The magazine said the recent war games also included a ground invasion of Iran.

The simulation envisioned a three-phase war against the Islamic republic. The first phase was composed of air strikes against bases of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, believed to control Iran's nuclear and missile programs.

U.S. intelligence sources were quoted as saying that such a strike would require one day and comprised the easiest part of any military campaign.
 

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No prob, don't hold your breath for a response on it though. Russia is the elephant in the Iranian living room.
 
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Jinn:

well said ... Russia has 40 billion (give or take) invested in these nuke reactors in Iran

2005 plans to be very "entertaining"
 

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Iran is actually quite simple.

If they wanted only nuclear power, we would supply light water reactors for them.
They have already been offered by europe, and Iran refused them.
http://forum2.therx.com/showthread.php?t=236152

They want the other stuff, the russian design that has enriched nuclear material as a byproduct.

So it looks like things will get rough because Israel is unlikely to stand back.
 

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Some offshore should have odds on this playing out.....

Easy money but who wants to bet a -10000 favorite?

I know, I know.....you don't pay juice when you win.
 

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Israel hits Iran. Iran, knowing full well that they acted with the full consent and backing of the US (and this will be true) hit both Israel and US troops in Iraq (maybe directly, maybe they back a Shi'ia uprising.) If directly, the US gets the green light to hit Iran. The US will have pulled out of Iraq by then (anybody else noticing all the 'leaks' from the DoD and Pentagon to imply that cutting your losses seems like the best possible idea) and will not have to deal with multiple theatre wars. Europe helps out. Or ... they have to deal with a new insurgency in Iraq.

Either way, I'd be surprised if the US isn't at war with Iran within 18 months.

Anybody know how well equipped Russia is to get involved, if at all?
 

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Looooooong day today. My reply will be short. I'll get to your shenanigans later, XP.

Re: Russia. Well, of course the Ruskies won't just walk away from the whole thing after having dumped so much money into it. I do think W made a bit of a mistake trusting Putin to the extent he did, but there's nothing that can be done about that now. We're stuck in the situation.

It's not just the technology sold that's worriesome, but rather what Iran will do with the purchased technology. They're in a race against time both with the international community (primarily the US) and it's own populace; namely, a likely revolt from within at some point in the next six to eight years in my estimation. Why a revolt?

The Iranian people do have some input and when you factor in the younger generation; quite a few Iranians under 40 don't have such a massive hostility towards the West. Its a different situation than, say, Saudi Arabia. In ten to twenty years, these people will likely be running Iran...not the aging mullahs, who are reportedly out of touch with the mainstream Iranian.

I'm not sure if the US wants to take the wait and see approach. Nor do I know what the perfect approach would be. But I do know the flimsy proposal from Madeline Albright won't solve anything.
 

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JDeuce said:
Looooooong day today. My reply will be short. I'll get to your shenanigans later, XP.

Re: Russia. Well, of course the Ruskies won't just walk away from the whole thing after having dumped so much money into it. I do think W made a bit of a mistake trusting Putin to the extent he did, but there's nothing that can be done about that now. We're stuck in the situation.
Hold the phones.

We agree.

It's not just the technology sold that's worriesome, but rather what Iran will do with the purchased technology. They're in a race against time both with the international community (primarily the US) and it's own populace; namely, a likely revolt from within at some point in the next six to eight years in my estimation. Why a revolt?

The Iranian people do have some input and when you factor in the younger generation; quite a few Iranians under 40 don't have such a massive hostility towards the West. Its a different situation than, say, Saudi Arabia. In ten to twenty years, these people will likely be running Iran...not the aging mullahs, who are reportedly out of touch with the mainstream Iranian.
Holy shít ... will the agreement ever stop?? It's hurting my eyes!!

I'm not sure if the US wants to take the wait and see approach. Nor do I know what the perfect approach would be. But I do know the flimsy proposal from Madeline Albright won't solve anything.
I doubt strongly that Bush et al will take a wait and see approach. Their problem at this point is manpower. Your army is overstretched. The only way they could implement a full-scale theater war with Iran (and even if they limit themselves to strikes on Iran's nuke facilities, I would think they would need to at least be prepared for the idea of a full-scale ground war) is by implementing a draft. The only way they could implement a draft, without causing a mutiny at home, would be to provoke an attack from Iran on US troops.
 

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It is a fallacy to think we can do anything about these countries having these weapons short of just taking over the whole Middle East and North Korea. And that would lead to more harm and pain than letting this buffoons act important. I personally think if we ignored all these countries we would be better off. After all we unfortunately don't win the moral argument of why we should have them and they shouldn't.

Isn't this sort of like the gun debate? Seems people to me on the pro-gun side don't use the same logic here. They say if everyone "might" have a gun, criminals will be less likely to use them. Shouldn't one say if everyone has nukes, chances are no one uses them? I know, oversimplification but lets face it, once again we can't play cop, investigator, invader, dismantler, etc. for every weapons threat out there. Further I will say it again, since no one ever pays attention to this, but if they haven't successfully tested a bomb, I will go on the premise they probably can't make something with any accuracy to the point where they can use them in a highly dangerous way. Just my opinion, but one point that is never discussed. You can be a country like North Korea shooting off missles that never go straight, yet someone you suddenly have 8 to 10 dangerous missles? Come on, test something first, shoot something on target first...then I will worry. Until then I just assume you haven't figured out how to do all that yet.
 

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