How many NFL services can tell you this without lying?

[aiverson]

The past two weeks combined, I have released 26 NFL plays for an average of $1.15 per play and won 73% of the plays!!

Last week, Week 13, I had 12 total plays, and won 10 of them. It is $15 for all my plays and analysis, which breaks down to $1.25/play! How many services charge $1.25/play and win 83% of their plays?

Week 12, I released 14 plays for, again $15, which breaks down to $1.07 per play, and I hit 64% of them!

My computer system has been locked in of late, and went 8-0 last week with 2 ATS plays, 4 Unders and 2 Over leans. In week 12, it hit 5-1 in totals (2-0 Overs, 3-1 Unders). I won't begin to say it will have those results week in and week out, but on the season, my plays have been tremendous:

31-14-2 (69%) YTD for all Personal Plays
40-19-1 (68%) YTD for all Computer ATS Plays
9-3 (75%) YTD for all Computer Overs Plays, and now 30-4 (88%) the last two seasons!
23-11-2 (68%) YTD for all Computer Unders Plays

So, I ask you this: how many services

1. Hit at the percentages I am hitting at, and have consistently done so for several seasons?
2. Charge as little as $15/week ($12/week for rest of season package) and typically release 10+ plays per week, for an average of $1.50 per play?
3. Provide as much indepth analysis and detailed writeups as I do, to show you how they decided to make a certain play?
4. Provide daily updates, detailed weather analysis and its impact on games, including 24/7 updated weather graphics and radar images?
5. Release their computer system plays on Wednesday and their other plays on Friday or Saturday morning, allowing you plenty of time to line shop?
6. Keep accurate and reliable records right on their home page, for all to view for free, to verify their results?

If you can't think of any, I am not surprised, but I also can tell you its only because you have not seen my work. I only do NFL, my computer system only is set up to run NFL, and I pour all my efforts into the NFL. If you are a regular on the RX NFL forum, you've seen me posting before, as I've been a member for years and I posted all my "personal plays" in the NFL forum this season thru Week 9, where I amassed a 23-9-2 ATS record before moving on to my new venture.

Please feel free to check out my site and hopefully you will decide that for $15/week, you want to give it a try not only for it's high win % but also for its value in terms of amount of plays/$ and the amount of information I provide. Here is the link:

www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

My Week 1 thread was lost in the forum crash, but here is a sample of a few of my writeups, one at the beginning of the season, one midway, and the last one I posted here:

Week 2 Plays (7-1 in Week 1)
http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=618407Week 5 Plays (14-4 season to date)
2008 Week 9 Plays (21-8-2 72% YTD)

 

[aiverson]

Week 14 Plays Currently Posted and available for $15 Purchase:

2 Personal Plays 31-14-2 (69%) YTD
2 ATS Computer System Plays 40-19-1 (68%) YTD
5 Unders Computer System Plays 23-11-2 (68%) YTD

Additional Personal Plays may be added on Sunday!

 

[LeifSheppard]

The question is how many services are monitored? A lot, How many are you monitored by? Zero.

 

[aiverson]

My record is 100% accurate. I posted every single Personal Play here at theRX from Weeks 1-9 when I was a free service. Just search on my name as a threadstarter, and you will see I went 23-9-2 (72%) thru Week 9.

At my blog, which I used earlier in the season prior to week 10, I have a post linking to the location where I posted all my system plays last year. Here is the link:

http://sharpfootballanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/03/my-weekly-threads-at-huddle.html

As far a services being monitored, if you don't know I didn't start charging for plays until Week 10 when I decided "enough was enough". After Steve Czaban mentioned my site on his Fox Sports Radio national show around Week 5, and then discussed it a few days later on air w/ Brandon Lang, I had tons of people asking me for more and more, so I decided I could cut down on the amount of people harassing, looking for free handouts, and charge a nominal amount per week or $12/week for a season pass. And it worked. So eventually I may go that route. But I only became a "service" in week 10.

As for those services that are being monitored, I am on top of them all. Look just at my Personal plays. I have released 47 this season and hit 69%. I can count 4 services being monitored by Ok Spts Monitor who are hitting 65% and have released 45+ plays. So I'm beating them by 4% and of the hundreds of monitored services, I count roughly 15 who have released 45+ plays and are even at 60% or better.

So yes, I'm not monitored right now, but I have not fabricated a single thing. If any of my subscribers could talk to you, I am sure they would tell you the same thing. I have ZERO advertising on my site, anywhere. I'm not a pro who has a "Play of the Year" and all that nonsense. I preach sharp money management, and I keep my record in terms of W-L, none of these fancy "stars" or units that can hide losses. I'm not really a pro yet but I do charge $15/week for the past few weeks, and my return business has been really solid so I guess that should tell you something.

 

[eppy224]

Very interesting....Very interesting indeed.

Continued success to you.

 

[eppy224]

I've tried for the las hour or so to send you an email and I can't get the message to send.

 

[sparrow]

I've tried for the las hour or so to send you an email and I can't get the message to send.

I sent the e-mail hours ago and got no reply????

 

[aiverson]

What e-mail address are you guys sending me messages to?

 

[eppy224]

What e-mail address are you guys sending me messages to?

I've been trying to send mine to: sharpfootballanalysis.com, and sharpfootballanalysis@gmail.com.

 

[aiverson]

Another Remarkably Solid Week from Sharp Football Analysis!

2-1 (67%) Personal Plays brings the mark to 33-15-2 (69%) YTD
4-1 (80%) Unders Computer System Plays brings the mark to 27-12-2 (69%) YTD
1-1 (50%) ATS Computer System Plays brings the mark to 41-20-1 (67%) YTD

Overall Week 14 Results, since there was no overlap in plays: 7-3 (70%)
Plays generated from my computer system: 5-2 (71%)

All three losses were by fewer than 3 points ATS! One game was lost by 2.5 points ATS, the other was lost by 2 points ATS, and the third was lost by 1 points ATS. I have heard from a couple clients who "tease" my plays, and therefore went undefeated!

In total, 10 plays were released, weekly subscription is only $15, therefore each play was just $1.50 and they hit 70%!!!

This on the back of a 10-2 (83%) Week 13 and a 9-5 (64%) Week 12.

Therefore for the past 3 weeks, I have released a total of 36 plays for a total of $15/week = the ridiculous price of $1.22 per play, and have gone 26-10 (72%). No better value online, ANYWHERE!!!

 

[aiverson]

Sharp Football Wins on MNF, 8-3 record for Week 14

After hitting on MNF, I improved to 3-1 for Personal Plays! Week 14 Results:

3-1 (75%) Personal Plays brings the mark to 34-15-2 (69%) YTD
4-1 (80%) Unders Computer System Plays brings the mark to 27-12-2 (69%) YTD
1-1 (50%) ATS Computer System Plays brings the mark to 41-20-1 (67%) YTD

Overall Week 14 Results: 8-3 (73%)
​

Plays generated from my computer system: 5-2 (71%)

In total, 11 plays were released, weekly subscription is only $15, therefore each play was just $1.36 and they hit 73%!!!

For the past 3 weeks, I have released a total of 37 plays for a total of $15/week = the ridiculous price of $1.22 per play, and have gone 27-10 (73%). No better value online, ANYWHERE!!!

________________________________________________________

In case you have never seen my research/write-ups before, I will give you a quick peak at two from this weekend. (On Monday, on my website, I showed the detailed "trend analysis" research that I do each and every week. These are not your run of the mill "Bal is 4-0 L4 ATS on grass" random trends. These are detailed, specific, and independently researched and generated by myself on a weekly basis. However, being that these are part of the "bread and butter" of what I offer, I am removed those sections from the writeup and leaving behind the writeups only.)



Bal-5

(Posted Friday PM)

Against the Redskins:

• (Detailed trends were here)

In favor of the Ravens:

• (Detailed trends were here)

The Redskins right now are a desperate, cautious and tentative team. That is an implosive combination. The story of the Redskins in 2008 is that of a team in transition, bringing in a new head coach in a division full of powers: SB Championship Giants, HBO touted Soon-To-Be-Champion Cowboys, and the ever dangerous Eagles. The Redskins started off the season 4-1, winning games in Dallas as a 11 point underdog and in Philly as a 6 point underdog in consecutive weeks. They started out exceeding everyone, including their coach’s expectations. At that point, they believed they had something special. They started thinking it after knocking off Dallas on the road. When they knocked off Philly on the road, they believed it. At 4-1, with 3 more home division games on schedule and games against the winless Rams, the winless Lions, the poor Browns, Seahawks and Bengals, they thought they put themselves in perfect position to do huge things. So what happened?

A combination of believing their own hype and playing tentatively so as to “not lose” games as opposed to more aggressively trying to win them cost this team dearly. After that 4-1 opening mark, they have gone 1-6 ATS and have lost SU 3 of their last 4. The tale can simply be shown through the influence of Zorn on QB Jason Campbell.

• In September, Campbell had a QB rating of 102.2, a 7.1 ypc avg, 6 TDs, a passing long of 67 yds, 0 ints and only 7 sacks.
• In October, Campbell had a QB rating of 98.6, a 8.3 ypc avg, 2 TDs, a passing long of 50 yds, 0 ints and 9 sacks.
• In November, Campbell had a QB rating of 68.1, a 5.4 ypc avg, 2 TDs, a passing long of 29 yds, 4 ints and 16 sacks.

In Zorn’s first tenure as a playcaller and head coach, he started off September with very good playcalling. After expectations grew, his playcalling became more conservative and predictable. In addition to the passing game, he made the running game more predictable. After running Portis 86 times for 3 TDs in September, he ran Portis to death over 3 weak teams (StL, Cle, Det) in October, for a total of 101 rushes and 4 TDs. The real problems only got worse for Zorn when he played some decent teams in November. Clinton only ran 68 times and has scored zero TDs in November.

The biggest sign that this team is now desperate is that Zorn is “scaling back” the playbook in hopes of trying to win 4 straight games, 3 of which are on the road. The Redskins players have admitted they need 11 wins to make the playoffs, and that means they must win each game left. This week, Zorn said about his playcalling and his desire to scale it back: "There is that balance there, and I probably have tipped the scales. Those are things you find out as you go along. I'm trying to push it. Now, maybe I take a step back." On Monday, he said he is considering which parts of the offense to jettison to simplify his system less than one week before his showdown with Baltimore.

Players have gotten frustrated with his playcalling, his lack of taking risks and involving a deep passing game and Moss more in the plans. To start the season, Moss actually was leading the league in receiving yardage. His numbers mirror those of Campbell. He went from 27 receptions in the aggressive Skins offense in September to 15 in November. He had 6, 20+ yard receptions and 2, 40+ in September. He had 3, 20+ yard and 0, 40+ yard in November. He went from a 15.6 average in September to a 11.3 average in November.
Zorn continues to blame the struggles on “execution”, essentially throwing his team under the bus. Now he has said that his team is unable to do it all and he’s going to have to scale things back. Players have fired back, with London Fletcher comming straight out and saying: “We're kidding ourselves. . . . We have to continue to have each man look at himself individually, each coach look at himself individually."
Either way you look at it, the Redskins are in some trouble. Playing “conservatively” and limiting risks in the offense may work against the Ravens while the game is tied or they have a lead. But when they are behind, in a “must win” game, the Redskins are going to have to force some things. If they are scaling things back too much, they will be too predictable for Rex Ryan. If they then try to force things, it could be a disaster.
One of the biggest factors here, in my opinion, is the emotional effort expended in last Sunday’s Redskins game. They “got up” huge for Sean Taylor and his induction into their “Ring of Honor” and then laid an egg, getting physically and mentally abused by the Giants in Washington. Now they have a “must-win” game vs. an even more physical defense who is defending home field and is likewise battling for a playoff spot.
The Ravens have been tremendous this season, going 4-1 ATS at home, winning their games by an average of 18 points, and losing 1 game to the 1-loss Titans on a last second Tennessee comeback. On the road, they are 5-2 ATS, and they have had only 2 bad losses, to NYG and to Ind. Ind was Flacco’s 2nd road game and 1st in a dome, and NYG has a way to confuse rookie QBs and dominated the Ravens. In Baltimore’s 4 road victories, they have won by an average of 21 points! So combining everything, Bal has won its 8 games by an average of 19.5 points and by no fewer than 7 points in each. I think if Baltimore gets a lead here, the Redskins will begin to force things in their desperation, which will equate to turnovers and points for Baltimore. The only way Baltimore loses this game, in my opinion, is Flacco interceptions, and Flacco has not thrown an interception in Baltimore in over two months (to Tennessee).



Pit-3

(Posted 7:30AM EST Sunday)

• (Detailed trends were here)

Not much to say here for this game. Both teams need a win here but Dallas needs it more. In the cold, without their RB Marion Barber, (whose main role in this game in my opinion was Blitz pickup and keeping the defense honest), with their top pass rusher possibly hampered with an injured knee, I think Pit can win this one by 3 or more.

Pittsburgh is a difficult team to handicap this season. Offensively, they are hit or miss, but in this game I think they will get it done. Pittsburgh has two tough road games at Baltimore and at Tennessee following this game.

I have told people this season about the Steelers and, in my opinion, their Achilles heel. I believe any team can beat the Steelers if they:

• Offensively, have an above average O-Line who can give their QB an extra half second, and a QB who is good enough to make quick, accurate reads and throws. The Steelers weakness is their CBs who are not nearly as good as their front 7. If a QB has the opportunity to get his WRs the ball w/ consistency, they can do damage.
• Defensively, have a strong pass rush from their front 7, primarily their D-Line, and mix things up for Ben in the secondary. The Steelers weakness here is their O-Line and if an opponent can apply pressure without sacrificing secondary personnel, they have a major advantage.

Based on O-Line pass protection grades, the Cowboys rank #11. The three teams that beat the Steelers: the Giants, Colts and Eagles, all rank among the top 10. Based on QB gradings, Tony Romo so far this season is grading out at #9 overall. The three QBs that beat the Steelers, the Manning brothers and Donovan McNabb, are all ranking among the top 10. Based on D-Line pressure abilities, Dallas ranks #3. Both the Giants and Eagles are in the top 10. The anomaly here are the Colts who rank in the bottom 1/3 of the league.

So it seems on paper that the Cowboys have exactly what it takes (in my opinion) to pull off this upset. And on any given Sunday, they can get it done. But on this particular Sunday, I don’t believe they will be able to. For a few reasons:

One factor of blitz pickup which cannot be understated enough, especially w/ complex blitz packages, is the presence of a veteran RB who is hardnosed enough to pickup the extra blitzer. NYG have several. Phi have several. Ind has several. Dallas is going to be playing without theirs, and will be playing a rookie RB in his first start. Choice appears tough and says he is ready for the challenge, but I will not bank on his ability to prosper as the last line of defense.

Secondly, Ware may not be 100%. He is leading the NFL in sacks. With his hyperextended knee, there is concern that even as he practiced in the confines of Dallas practice facility wearing a brace, that come gametime in the cold weather and potentially sloppy field conditions, that he may not be able to go at 100%, especially if the weather stiffens up that knee at all. If his speed off the edge is slowed a little or a lot, or if he pulls up and out at any time during the game, it is could be the difference maker.

Thirdly, I have not seen proof that Romo has what it takes to step up in the clutch situations and make the key throws that it takes to win in a hostile environment. Yes, he is one of the better QBs in the league. But he has yet to have a defining moment, and at this point he cannot be mentioned in the same sentence as the Manning brothers. Donovan McNabb has struggled throughout his career at times and some of the criticism is rightfully due. However, McNabb has not been healthy for the past several seasons, and led the Eagles to seasons of 11-5, 11-5, 7-3 (injured), 12-4 and 13-2 before getting injured in 2005. McNabb was also able to win 7 playoff games along with a few “must win” regular season games along the way, with arguably less of a surrounding cast on offense than Romo has had the past 2 seasons.

Finally, I am not convinced that Wade Phillips is the same ability of HC as Dungy, Coughlin or Reid. Not that Reid should be mentioned along with the other two, but I have not seen enough out of Phillips over his coaching career to think that he wins when it is needed most. He is 0-4 as a NFL HC in the playoffs. Last year Dallas never had a “must win” game thanks to their 12-1 start to the season, except for their playoff game. In December of last season, Dallas went 0-4 ATS and w/ their playoff loss, finished the season on an 0-5 ATS streak. They also only won 1 of their 4 games to close the last several weeks of the season, recording Week 15 and 17 losses, and lost the only one that really mattered in the playoffs. Going back to his last HC job in Buffalo in 2000, the Bills were 7-4 and in heavy playoff contention the last week in November. The Bills promptly dropped 4 in a row, getting beaten by 2+ TDs in three of the games (and going 0-4 ATS), to drop to 7-8 before winning a meaningless week 17 game. This game is a more-or-less "must win" for the Cowboys.

I honestly believe that if Dallas was fully healthy and this game was in the more temperate Dallas Stadium, Dallas certainly would be able to beat the Steelers. They are one of the teams built perfectly to hit on the weaknesses of the Steelers. I still believe they "could" do it Sunday. But in this game, given the cards we are dealt regarding injuries and weather, I believe the Steelers prevail.

 

[sparrow]

After hitting on MNF, I improved to 3-1 for Personal Plays! Week 14 Results:

3-1 (75%) Personal Plays brings the mark to 34-15-2 (69%) YTD
4-1 (80%) Unders Computer System Plays brings the mark to 27-12-2 (69%) YTD
1-1 (50%) ATS Computer System Plays brings the mark to 41-20-1 (67%) YTD

Overall Week 14 Results: 8-3 (73%) ​

Plays generated from my computer system: 5-2 (71%)

In total, 11 plays were released, weekly subscription is only $15, therefore each play was just $1.36 and they hit 73%!!!

For the past 3 weeks, I have released a total of 37 plays for a total of $15/week = the ridiculous price of $1.22 per play, and have gone 27-10 (73%). No better value online, ANYWHERE!!!

________________________________________________________

In case you have never seen my research/write-ups before, I will give you a quick peak at two from this weekend. (On Monday, on my website, I showed the detailed "trend analysis" research that I do each and every week. These are not your run of the mill "Bal is 4-0 L4 ATS on grass" random trends. These are detailed, specific, and independently researched and generated by myself on a weekly basis. However, being that these are part of the "bread and butter" of what I offer, I am removed those sections from the writeup and leaving behind the writeups only.)



Bal-5

(Posted Friday PM)

Against the Redskins:

• (Detailed trends were here)

In favor of the Ravens:

• (Detailed trends were here)

The Redskins right now are a desperate, cautious and tentative team. That is an implosive combination. The story of the Redskins in 2008 is that of a team in transition, bringing in a new head coach in a division full of powers: SB Championship Giants, HBO touted Soon-To-Be-Champion Cowboys, and the ever dangerous Eagles. The Redskins started off the season 4-1, winning games in Dallas as a 11 point underdog and in Philly as a 6 point underdog in consecutive weeks. They started out exceeding everyone, including their coach’s expectations. At that point, they believed they had something special. They started thinking it after knocking off Dallas on the road. When they knocked off Philly on the road, they believed it. At 4-1, with 3 more home division games on schedule and games against the winless Rams, the winless Lions, the poor Browns, Seahawks and Bengals, they thought they put themselves in perfect position to do huge things. So what happened?

A combination of believing their own hype and playing tentatively so as to “not lose” games as opposed to more aggressively trying to win them cost this team dearly. After that 4-1 opening mark, they have gone 1-6 ATS and have lost SU 3 of their last 4. The tale can simply be shown through the influence of Zorn on QB Jason Campbell.

• In September, Campbell had a QB rating of 102.2, a 7.1 ypc avg, 6 TDs, a passing long of 67 yds, 0 ints and only 7 sacks.
• In October, Campbell had a QB rating of 98.6, a 8.3 ypc avg, 2 TDs, a passing long of 50 yds, 0 ints and 9 sacks.
• In November, Campbell had a QB rating of 68.1, a 5.4 ypc avg, 2 TDs, a passing long of 29 yds, 4 ints and 16 sacks.

In Zorn’s first tenure as a playcaller and head coach, he started off September with very good playcalling. After expectations grew, his playcalling became more conservative and predictable. In addition to the passing game, he made the running game more predictable. After running Portis 86 times for 3 TDs in September, he ran Portis to death over 3 weak teams (StL, Cle, Det) in October, for a total of 101 rushes and 4 TDs. The real problems only got worse for Zorn when he played some decent teams in November. Clinton only ran 68 times and has scored zero TDs in November.

The biggest sign that this team is now desperate is that Zorn is “scaling back” the playbook in hopes of trying to win 4 straight games, 3 of which are on the road. The Redskins players have admitted they need 11 wins to make the playoffs, and that means they must win each game left. This week, Zorn said about his playcalling and his desire to scale it back: "There is that balance there, and I probably have tipped the scales. Those are things you find out as you go along. I'm trying to push it. Now, maybe I take a step back." On Monday, he said he is considering which parts of the offense to jettison to simplify his system less than one week before his showdown with Baltimore.

Players have gotten frustrated with his playcalling, his lack of taking risks and involving a deep passing game and Moss more in the plans. To start the season, Moss actually was leading the league in receiving yardage. His numbers mirror those of Campbell. He went from 27 receptions in the aggressive Skins offense in September to 15 in November. He had 6, 20+ yard receptions and 2, 40+ in September. He had 3, 20+ yard and 0, 40+ yard in November. He went from a 15.6 average in September to a 11.3 average in November.
Zorn continues to blame the struggles on “execution”, essentially throwing his team under the bus. Now he has said that his team is unable to do it all and he’s going to have to scale things back. Players have fired back, with London Fletcher comming straight out and saying: “We're kidding ourselves. . . . We have to continue to have each man look at himself individually, each coach look at himself individually."
Either way you look at it, the Redskins are in some trouble. Playing “conservatively” and limiting risks in the offense may work against the Ravens while the game is tied or they have a lead. But when they are behind, in a “must win” game, the Redskins are going to have to force some things. If they are scaling things back too much, they will be too predictable for Rex Ryan. If they then try to force things, it could be a disaster.
One of the biggest factors here, in my opinion, is the emotional effort expended in last Sunday’s Redskins game. They “got up” huge for Sean Taylor and his induction into their “Ring of Honor” and then laid an egg, getting physically and mentally abused by the Giants in Washington. Now they have a “must-win” game vs. an even more physical defense who is defending home field and is likewise battling for a playoff spot.
The Ravens have been tremendous this season, going 4-1 ATS at home, winning their games by an average of 18 points, and losing 1 game to the 1-loss Titans on a last second Tennessee comeback. On the road, they are 5-2 ATS, and they have had only 2 bad losses, to NYG and to Ind. Ind was Flacco’s 2nd road game and 1st in a dome, and NYG has a way to confuse rookie QBs and dominated the Ravens. In Baltimore’s 4 road victories, they have won by an average of 21 points! So combining everything, Bal has won its 8 games by an average of 19.5 points and by no fewer than 7 points in each. I think if Baltimore gets a lead here, the Redskins will begin to force things in their desperation, which will equate to turnovers and points for Baltimore. The only way Baltimore loses this game, in my opinion, is Flacco interceptions, and Flacco has not thrown an interception in Baltimore in over two months (to Tennessee).



Pit-3

(Posted 7:30AM EST Sunday)

• (Detailed trends were here)

Not much to say here for this game. Both teams need a win here but Dallas needs it more. In the cold, without their RB Marion Barber, (whose main role in this game in my opinion was Blitz pickup and keeping the defense honest), with their top pass rusher possibly hampered with an injured knee, I think Pit can win this one by 3 or more.

Pittsburgh is a difficult team to handicap this season. Offensively, they are hit or miss, but in this game I think they will get it done. Pittsburgh has two tough road games at Baltimore and at Tennessee following this game.

I have told people this season about the Steelers and, in my opinion, their Achilles heel. I believe any team can beat the Steelers if they:

• Offensively, have an above average O-Line who can give their QB an extra half second, and a QB who is good enough to make quick, accurate reads and throws. The Steelers weakness is their CBs who are not nearly as good as their front 7. If a QB has the opportunity to get his WRs the ball w/ consistency, they can do damage.
• Defensively, have a strong pass rush from their front 7, primarily their D-Line, and mix things up for Ben in the secondary. The Steelers weakness here is their O-Line and if an opponent can apply pressure without sacrificing secondary personnel, they have a major advantage.

Based on O-Line pass protection grades, the Cowboys rank #11. The three teams that beat the Steelers: the Giants, Colts and Eagles, all rank among the top 10. Based on QB gradings, Tony Romo so far this season is grading out at #9 overall. The three QBs that beat the Steelers, the Manning brothers and Donovan McNabb, are all ranking among the top 10. Based on D-Line pressure abilities, Dallas ranks #3. Both the Giants and Eagles are in the top 10. The anomaly here are the Colts who rank in the bottom 1/3 of the league.

So it seems on paper that the Cowboys have exactly what it takes (in my opinion) to pull off this upset. And on any given Sunday, they can get it done. But on this particular Sunday, I don’t believe they will be able to. For a few reasons:

One factor of blitz pickup which cannot be understated enough, especially w/ complex blitz packages, is the presence of a veteran RB who is hardnosed enough to pickup the extra blitzer. NYG have several. Phi have several. Ind has several. Dallas is going to be playing without theirs, and will be playing a rookie RB in his first start. Choice appears tough and says he is ready for the challenge, but I will not bank on his ability to prosper as the last line of defense.

Secondly, Ware may not be 100%. He is leading the NFL in sacks. With his hyperextended knee, there is concern that even as he practiced in the confines of Dallas practice facility wearing a brace, that come gametime in the cold weather and potentially sloppy field conditions, that he may not be able to go at 100%, especially if the weather stiffens up that knee at all. If his speed off the edge is slowed a little or a lot, or if he pulls up and out at any time during the game, it is could be the difference maker.

Thirdly, I have not seen proof that Romo has what it takes to step up in the clutch situations and make the key throws that it takes to win in a hostile environment. Yes, he is one of the better QBs in the league. But he has yet to have a defining moment, and at this point he cannot be mentioned in the same sentence as the Manning brothers. Donovan McNabb has struggled throughout his career at times and some of the criticism is rightfully due. However, McNabb has not been healthy for the past several seasons, and led the Eagles to seasons of 11-5, 11-5, 7-3 (injured), 12-4 and 13-2 before getting injured in 2005. McNabb was also able to win 7 playoff games along with a few “must win” regular season games along the way, with arguably less of a surrounding cast on offense than Romo has had the past 2 seasons.

Finally, I am not convinced that Wade Phillips is the same ability of HC as Dungy, Coughlin or Reid. Not that Reid should be mentioned along with the other two, but I have not seen enough out of Phillips over his coaching career to think that he wins when it is needed most. He is 0-4 as a NFL HC in the playoffs. Last year Dallas never had a “must win” game thanks to their 12-1 start to the season, except for their playoff game. In December of last season, Dallas went 0-4 ATS and w/ their playoff loss, finished the season on an 0-5 ATS streak. They also only won 1 of their 4 games to close the last several weeks of the season, recording Week 15 and 17 losses, and lost the only one that really mattered in the playoffs. Going back to his last HC job in Buffalo in 2000, the Bills were 7-4 and in heavy playoff contention the last week in November. The Bills promptly dropped 4 in a row, getting beaten by 2+ TDs in three of the games (and going 0-4 ATS), to drop to 7-8 before winning a meaningless week 17 game. This game is a more-or-less "must win" for the Cowboys.

I honestly believe that if Dallas was fully healthy and this game was in the more temperate Dallas Stadium, Dallas certainly would be able to beat the Steelers. They are one of the teams built perfectly to hit on the weaknesses of the Steelers. I still believe they "could" do it Sunday. But in this game, given the cards we are dealt regarding injuries and weather, I believe the Steelers prevail.

I've tried sending u an e-mail even sent a PM but I got no response??????

 

[eppy224]

NFL picks

I thought you were going to post your selections right after they kicked off so people like me could track the results. I looked for them Sunday, but did not see them.

Thanks for any reply

 

[aiverson]

Eppy, I am not going to be posting all of my detailed trend analysis and write-ups each week for free in this thread.

 

[aiverson]

So far I have posted on my website:

• 3 ATS Computer System Plays 41-20-1 (68%) YTD
• 2 Overs Computer System Plays 9-3 (75%) YTD and 30-4 (88%) the L2 Years!
  
• 3 Unders Computer System Plays 27-12-2 (69%) YTD

Along with a large amount of analysis and weather related information. This is the first time in 3 weeks that the Overs system has produced a play and it gave us two this week.

My Personal Plays which are 34-15-2 (69%) YTD will be Updated on Friday Night.

Only 3 weeks left in the regular season, and my plays have been very solid all year, but especially impressive the last several weeks:

For the past 3 weeks, I have released a total of 37 plays for a total of $15/week = the ridiculous price of $1.22 per play, and have gone 27-10 (73%). No better value online, ANYWHERE!!!

I went 3-1 (75%) in Personal Plays last week and was 8-3 (73%) overall and was 10-2 (83%) in Week 13.

Please visit: www.sharpfootballanalysis/purchase.html to purchase all my Week 15 plays for only $15!

 

[aiverson]

Sorry, that link should read www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/purchase.html

 

[aiverson]

I now have updated the Personal Plays section of my site to add a play and will have an additional personal play later this weekend.