Is lack of discipline a reason or an excuse?
I can handicap a little bit. But for the most part I like to scalp. Even middling is a losing prop over time, simply because to middle the lines have to be accurate to begin with, which they are about 80% of the time.
But I have a hard time showing even moderate profits betting one way. That is playing probably 500-700 games a year (mostly in NCAA hoops and NCAA football) That is a lot of games for most people to bet in a year, let alone just two sports.
And before we get into betting a lot of games cause the juice to kill you, lets stop that foolishness right here. Vig only hurts you when you win, not when you lose. And if you bet a lot of ML dogs, then the vig/hold is actualy almost zero considering how most books sway their odds (Pinnacle included). I bet the same amount every game regardless of the odds. So you won't see me laying 185 increments on a -185 fave, I will lay the 100 increments and collect the 54 per. But then again I won't bet a -185 fave (except in a series), but mostly used for an example in this case. The only thing you do when you adjust your bet amounts is force yourself to win at a higher percentage in those games. It basically nullifies any money mangement or plan one may have.
That is why I ask if discipline is a reason or an excuse. Most guys don't even bet 'correctly' in terms of realistic expectations/probabilities. In a vaccum you have a 50/50 chance to win a gam. The only thing that can insinuate vale is differing lines and opinions. Opinions have no place in accessing value since even the BEST cappers lose 45% of the itme, so no matter how stron g their opinion it has a 45% failure rate.
Also differing lines are flawed as it is probable that NIETHER line is even close. All betting a 'better' line does is make a guy feel better. To see how much it truly effects you, one would have to track every single bet. then go through every single bet and see where they lost by a half point or a poitn when it was available, and also look at pushes when you may have won witha 'better' AVAILABLE line. I would be willing to say that most guys might have 1 or 2 games that fit that bill per 100 best. So roughly 1-2%. Is that worth the stress and mentalanguish you put yourself through? The difference wouldn't even pay the DB Premium bill unless you are betting a nickle a game.
Not to mention a lot of people like to fool themselves, and they conveniently forget all the money they have lost over the years gambling. SO even people that think they are 'close to even' or even 'winning' would probably be amazed at just how much they have lost.
