I played Purdue.....from a very good capper.
[FONT="]The Pick:[/FONT]
[FONT="]Purdue +21 (-115) over Indiana[/FONT]
[FONT="]1. The Biggest line ever[/FONT]
[FONT="]The old Oaken Bucket. This is a rivalry game folks. This is a rivalry that goes all the way back to 1925. I don't care what the hell you think of Purdue. That means something. Look at Arizona tonight. NINE losses in a row. 55 points scored to prevent ASU from going to a bowl. LOUSY Mizzou scores 21 unanswered in the second half to drop Arkansas in their rivalry game.[/FONT]
[FONT="]I wanted to see how big this line was in the database with regard to this rivalry. I went all the way back to 1985. Here are the lines between Purdue vs. Indiana for the Old Oaken Bucket with Indiana's line shown:[/FONT]
[FONT="]+6, +14, +6, -18.5, -15.5, +9, +3.5, +2.5, +3, +2, +4, +7.5, +16, +16.5, +14, +16.5, -6, +21.5, +26.5, +21, +11, +12.5, +1.5, +11.5, +3, +4, +8, +5.5, -20 (the was a push 56-36), -2.5, -7.5.[/FONT]
[FONT="]This is the single biggest line ever laid to Purdue since 1985 (can't access lines before that). That is incredible.[/FONT]
[FONT="]That folks is called ROCK FUC*ING BOTTOM.[/FONT]
[FONT="]But there's worse. Those are just Purdue games. What about ALL Indiana games?[/FONT]
[FONT="]Since 1985, Indiana has only given a spread this high to an FBS teams TWO TIMES:[/FONT]
[FONT="]-28.5 Toledo in 1989 (they did not cover);[/FONT]
[FONT="]-23 to Arkon in 2010 (they did not cover 35-20).[/FONT]
[FONT="]Two times EVER (or at least to where we can research lines) in ALL FBS games! That is the number we are dealing with here. Unbelievable.[/FONT]
[FONT="]And note, this line OPENED at 16 and shot up FIVE points. That is gigantic!! We get all that![/FONT]
[FONT="]But here's one better. Purdue is far better in away games. Look at their game against Illinois (win). Look at their near win against Minny. This team has NO HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE. Why give up Six big points for the home/away swing for nothing. Take it back in this line! [/FONT]
[FONT="]This line is UNREAL.[/FONT]
[FONT="]One of my philosophies: Buy low/Sell High. We are buying Purdue here at the most rock bottom price available.[/FONT]
[FONT="]2. Purdue's offense[/FONT]
[FONT="]There was a massive problem with Purdue's offense last year. They could not score under OC John Shoop. He is gone. Long gone. This is a revamped OC staff. I live by an old saying: "Can't score, Can't win".[/FONT]
[FONT="]This team compared to last year, can score. And with a boatload of points, especially this many points, that matters.[/FONT]
[FONT="]No Big Ten team has attempted more passes (288) or gained more yards through the air (3,314) than Purdue. Shocking but true. Blough? Leads the conference with 23 TD's.[/FONT]
[FONT="]DeAngelo Yancy is averaging 20.3 YPC #1 in the Big Ten.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Bilal Marshall (36 catches), Cole Herdman (34 catches), Dominique Young (29), Cameron Posey (33).[/FONT]
[FONT="]There are WEAPONS HERE. Indiana ranks 57th quite respectable. Purdue amazingly ranks 53rd.
Purdue can score on offense to cover. That's all we care about.[/FONT]
[FONT="]3. Running the ball[/FONT]
[FONT="] Purdue is worst defending against the run: 121st in the nation.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Indiana has come out and basically said they will have a rush first attack today. That means Purdue knows what's coming. They showed us they could stop even Penn State for a half.[/FONT]
[FONT="]But runs take up a lot of clock. The more clock that ticks off, the closer to the end of the game. And with 21, we want the clock to melt away. If Purdue can give us one inspired effort against the run we are good here.[/FONT]
[FONT="]4. RUTGERS[/FONT]
[FONT="]Why Rutgers? I told you earlier in the year I scouted New Mexico for an entire year vs. CSU because they lost to Rutgers. That worked out nicely.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Well guess what. Rutgers almost beat Indiana. Rutgers had one of it's best offensive games of the year against Indiana only falling by 6 as 14 point dogs.[/FONT]
[FONT="]When the worst Rutgers team I have ever seen in my life beats you or competes with you, I take notice.[/FONT]
[FONT="]For the record, Rutgers came a hair away from beating Minnesota 34-32, and Purdue covered (-17) and trailed Minny by only 6 with 4 minutes. A turnover made the final 31-44.[/FONT]
[FONT="]If Rutgers can come an onside kick recovery away from potentially beating you, I'll take 21 even if its with Purdue. For the record Rutgers was getting fewer points than Purdue (+13.5 at home which translates to +20 away).[/FONT]
[FONT="]5. Turnovers[/FONT]
[FONT="]This is why Purdue gets destroyed. They have the second worst turnover margin in the FBS at -18.[/FONT]
[FONT="]But take note, Indiana at #107 is way down there at -6.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Avoid costly turnovers and we stay in this one.[/FONT]
[FONT="]6. Indiana plays DOWN to it's competition[/FONT]
[FONT="]Vs. FIU 34-13[/FONT]
[FONT="]Vs. Ball State 30-20[/FONT]
[FONT="]Vs. Wake Forest 28-33 (loss)[/FONT]
[FONT="]vs. Michigan State 24-21[/FONT]
[FONT="]vs. Maryland 42-36[/FONT]
[FONT="]vs. Northwestern 14-24 (loss)[/FONT]
[FONT="]While they've won most, they didn't cover 21 against a single ne of those teams. And many of those games were very competitive.[/FONT]
[FONT="]
It takes the big dogs to bring out the best in this Indy team. Purdue is a Chihuahua. That's a good think amazingly.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Yes, this team is bowl eligible if they win but we get TWENTY ONE POINTS in fading that.[/FONT]
[FONT="]For comparison, Purdue was only getting +7.5 at home last year (translates to a 13.5 point away line) against Indiana and that was a TWO WIN TEAM. This line is huge. Can't say it enough.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Now the bad news. This team and this defense FADES in the second half. Purdue has been quite competitive in many first halves but I have to stick to my principles of full game betting. But listen even if Indy scores 40, 20 gets it done. Purdue can score 20.[/FONT]
[FONT="]And better Indy has a below average O-Line. Purdue does well against poor O-Lines (see Nebraska).[/FONT]
[FONT="]This is holiday week. Let's hope for a watered down crowd and we know Indy didn't practice on Thanksgiving. It doesn't matter if Purdue practices at all. Nothing will improve that. So holiday week is a plus.[/FONT]
[FONT="]This is a huge number. Walk with me. Walk and face the devil. Stare him in the eye, wallop him with the Old Oaken Bucket, and take his muth*****ing roll.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Take it...with Purdue![/FONT]
[FONT="]The Pick:[/FONT]
[FONT="]Purdue +21 (-115) over Indiana[/FONT]
[FONT="]1. The Biggest line ever[/FONT]
[FONT="]The old Oaken Bucket. This is a rivalry game folks. This is a rivalry that goes all the way back to 1925. I don't care what the hell you think of Purdue. That means something. Look at Arizona tonight. NINE losses in a row. 55 points scored to prevent ASU from going to a bowl. LOUSY Mizzou scores 21 unanswered in the second half to drop Arkansas in their rivalry game.[/FONT]
[FONT="]I wanted to see how big this line was in the database with regard to this rivalry. I went all the way back to 1985. Here are the lines between Purdue vs. Indiana for the Old Oaken Bucket with Indiana's line shown:[/FONT]
[FONT="]+6, +14, +6, -18.5, -15.5, +9, +3.5, +2.5, +3, +2, +4, +7.5, +16, +16.5, +14, +16.5, -6, +21.5, +26.5, +21, +11, +12.5, +1.5, +11.5, +3, +4, +8, +5.5, -20 (the was a push 56-36), -2.5, -7.5.[/FONT]
[FONT="]This is the single biggest line ever laid to Purdue since 1985 (can't access lines before that). That is incredible.[/FONT]
[FONT="]That folks is called ROCK FUC*ING BOTTOM.[/FONT]
[FONT="]But there's worse. Those are just Purdue games. What about ALL Indiana games?[/FONT]
[FONT="]Since 1985, Indiana has only given a spread this high to an FBS teams TWO TIMES:[/FONT]
[FONT="]-28.5 Toledo in 1989 (they did not cover);[/FONT]
[FONT="]-23 to Arkon in 2010 (they did not cover 35-20).[/FONT]
[FONT="]Two times EVER (or at least to where we can research lines) in ALL FBS games! That is the number we are dealing with here. Unbelievable.[/FONT]
[FONT="]And note, this line OPENED at 16 and shot up FIVE points. That is gigantic!! We get all that![/FONT]
[FONT="]But here's one better. Purdue is far better in away games. Look at their game against Illinois (win). Look at their near win against Minny. This team has NO HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE. Why give up Six big points for the home/away swing for nothing. Take it back in this line! [/FONT]
[FONT="]This line is UNREAL.[/FONT]
[FONT="]One of my philosophies: Buy low/Sell High. We are buying Purdue here at the most rock bottom price available.[/FONT]
[FONT="]2. Purdue's offense[/FONT]
[FONT="]There was a massive problem with Purdue's offense last year. They could not score under OC John Shoop. He is gone. Long gone. This is a revamped OC staff. I live by an old saying: "Can't score, Can't win".[/FONT]
[FONT="]This team compared to last year, can score. And with a boatload of points, especially this many points, that matters.[/FONT]
[FONT="]No Big Ten team has attempted more passes (288) or gained more yards through the air (3,314) than Purdue. Shocking but true. Blough? Leads the conference with 23 TD's.[/FONT]
[FONT="]DeAngelo Yancy is averaging 20.3 YPC #1 in the Big Ten.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Bilal Marshall (36 catches), Cole Herdman (34 catches), Dominique Young (29), Cameron Posey (33).[/FONT]
[FONT="]There are WEAPONS HERE. Indiana ranks 57th quite respectable. Purdue amazingly ranks 53rd.
Purdue can score on offense to cover. That's all we care about.[/FONT]
[FONT="]3. Running the ball[/FONT]
[FONT="] Purdue is worst defending against the run: 121st in the nation.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Indiana has come out and basically said they will have a rush first attack today. That means Purdue knows what's coming. They showed us they could stop even Penn State for a half.[/FONT]
[FONT="]But runs take up a lot of clock. The more clock that ticks off, the closer to the end of the game. And with 21, we want the clock to melt away. If Purdue can give us one inspired effort against the run we are good here.[/FONT]
[FONT="]4. RUTGERS[/FONT]
[FONT="]Why Rutgers? I told you earlier in the year I scouted New Mexico for an entire year vs. CSU because they lost to Rutgers. That worked out nicely.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Well guess what. Rutgers almost beat Indiana. Rutgers had one of it's best offensive games of the year against Indiana only falling by 6 as 14 point dogs.[/FONT]
[FONT="]When the worst Rutgers team I have ever seen in my life beats you or competes with you, I take notice.[/FONT]
[FONT="]For the record, Rutgers came a hair away from beating Minnesota 34-32, and Purdue covered (-17) and trailed Minny by only 6 with 4 minutes. A turnover made the final 31-44.[/FONT]
[FONT="]If Rutgers can come an onside kick recovery away from potentially beating you, I'll take 21 even if its with Purdue. For the record Rutgers was getting fewer points than Purdue (+13.5 at home which translates to +20 away).[/FONT]
[FONT="]5. Turnovers[/FONT]
[FONT="]This is why Purdue gets destroyed. They have the second worst turnover margin in the FBS at -18.[/FONT]
[FONT="]But take note, Indiana at #107 is way down there at -6.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Avoid costly turnovers and we stay in this one.[/FONT]
[FONT="]6. Indiana plays DOWN to it's competition[/FONT]
[FONT="]Vs. FIU 34-13[/FONT]
[FONT="]Vs. Ball State 30-20[/FONT]
[FONT="]Vs. Wake Forest 28-33 (loss)[/FONT]
[FONT="]vs. Michigan State 24-21[/FONT]
[FONT="]vs. Maryland 42-36[/FONT]
[FONT="]vs. Northwestern 14-24 (loss)[/FONT]
[FONT="]While they've won most, they didn't cover 21 against a single ne of those teams. And many of those games were very competitive.[/FONT]
[FONT="]
It takes the big dogs to bring out the best in this Indy team. Purdue is a Chihuahua. That's a good think amazingly.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Yes, this team is bowl eligible if they win but we get TWENTY ONE POINTS in fading that.[/FONT]
[FONT="]For comparison, Purdue was only getting +7.5 at home last year (translates to a 13.5 point away line) against Indiana and that was a TWO WIN TEAM. This line is huge. Can't say it enough.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Now the bad news. This team and this defense FADES in the second half. Purdue has been quite competitive in many first halves but I have to stick to my principles of full game betting. But listen even if Indy scores 40, 20 gets it done. Purdue can score 20.[/FONT]
[FONT="]And better Indy has a below average O-Line. Purdue does well against poor O-Lines (see Nebraska).[/FONT]
[FONT="]This is holiday week. Let's hope for a watered down crowd and we know Indy didn't practice on Thanksgiving. It doesn't matter if Purdue practices at all. Nothing will improve that. So holiday week is a plus.[/FONT]
[FONT="]This is a huge number. Walk with me. Walk and face the devil. Stare him in the eye, wallop him with the Old Oaken Bucket, and take his muth*****ing roll.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Take it...with Purdue![/FONT]
