Rainbow, how do you figure? It is actually right in line with what it should pay. (according to Pin's odds anyways). I did however forget one step in my above calculations. That would to take NE on the ML in the SB. I figured a -150 or so ML on them. Pin has the AFC -210, so a lot more respect than what I give the AFC.
With my figures the payout is about 2990. So if NE is only a -150 fave then, yes, he did get the worst of it. But according to Pin's numbers it is right in line. Parlaying out with their odds it would be a pay out of 2530. So his payout is just slightly better.
That is where Pin gets people sometimes. They offer three or four ways to bet the same thing, and people don't look at the 'better' way to play it.
The one thing it does show is that +140 on NE to win the SB is WAY too low in terms of 'true' odds. Should be at least +160.
Using their numbers of -141 and AFC odds(assuming NE wins) -210. That correlates out to about +153. And factoring in that EITHER Pitt or NE will be a fav in the SB, should garner some extra odds. Surely 8 cents.
BUT IMO the AFC winner won't be that big a fave. I think it is a test line to see where the senitment lies. In other words, if the NFC side get hit in that future play, then the line will probably be -3. If the AFC takes a lot of money, we may see -6. Especially in the winner of the AFC game wins in a blow out, no matter who it is.
3 and 6 are those pyschological numbers that scare people. Hard not to bet Phi +6, but if NE beats Pitt 34-10, it will be hard to bet against them as well.
Again all specultaion. But definately things the books are trying to get a feel for. That is exactly why they throw up those numbers like that, just to test the waters before they have to set a line they cannot get off.
