How did you guys learn to win in sports wagering

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Part Bionic and Organic
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this is my 2nd season wagering sports and I am fortunate to have a bankroll that is entirely the sportsbooks money, I have withdrawn all the money I deposited.

Is there a book or a way to become real good at this? How do you become a wiseguy? Is it just by the school of hard knocks?
 

Another Day, Another Dollar
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Pay attention to the posts here and seek to understand. There is a university of knowledge here. It cannot be learned overnight.

Good luck
 

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You could buy some of the good books out there, that is a good start...very small investment... Stanford Wong's book.... Read as much as you can from respected writers....

SOME BASIC STUFF:

SHopping for lines with multiple outs (around 8) is vital....

Uses Bonuses & Scalps to pad your bankroll...

Bet as much with reduced juice shops as possible....

If the line has moved against your position.... walk from the game..... there will be many more to come....

Look to bet against Public Moves... (green Bay Last night)

Treat every sportsbet you make as seriously as if you would be spending that amount of money on electronics... For example if you do 2 hours research before buying a 200$ DVD... THen the same in a sense should hold true before betting on a 200$ bet....
Avoid Parlays (unless getting a positive expectation) Tonite I had NYY+141/OVER 8+100 Parlay paid like +380 or something crazy... almost 4-1.... I figured the over would co-relate with the NYY win & at those odds it was worth a shot.....
 

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find & read TED's thread on Money management... read alot about Money managment... do not deviate from these rules....

WInning at gambling is not hard... IT IS THE DISCIPLINE that is hard... almost impossible....
 

Give BB 2.5k he makes it 20k within 3 months 99out
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Holysmoke:



The first thing you need to learn is that the best team doesn't always win.
 

Part Bionic and Organic
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thanks guys for the advice. thanks ss for all the info, ill read those things you suggested
 

Part Bionic and Organic
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Hitman26 said:
Holysmoke:



The first thing you need to learn is that the best team doesn't always win.
true, but the winner should be ranked higher than the team they beat if they have the same record imho.

but thats an issue for another thread : )
 

ODU GURU
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NEVER EVER EVER TAKE A BAD NUMBER!!!!

If you have 8 "outs" as someone so astutely pointed out, that shouldn't happen to you...

THE SHRINK
 

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true, but the winner should be ranked higher than the team they beat if they have the same record imho.

but thats an issue for another thread : )



I'm not sure what you're saying with this line?
 

Give BB 2.5k he makes it 20k within 3 months 99out
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Jman:


He's talking about a thread going on in the college forum that we have been engaging in all day.





Check it out and chime in
 

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I believe the key is to try to specialize. Find a type of bet you are good at. Maybe it is totals. Maybe it is a specific conference or two in college football or college hoops. Or maybe it is a certain type of prop. Keep looking and working, you'll find you will have success in some niche. Once you find it for a particular sport, really try to focus on that. Your niches might be different in different sports. Sometimes the road less travelled (i.e. MAC or Mountain West football; Big West or Sun Belt basketball; obscure props, etc.) can make all the difference.

Take notes as you go. You'll see some patterns develop and over time you will exploit them.

Keep an open mind. Realize that anything is possible in sports. The NFL confounds many bettors b/c of its unpredictable nature. As an experiment, pick 2 teams over the next month that you think are least likely to cover. I'm talking teams that just looked horrible their last game(s) and have zero momentum and maybe they are playing a team that is rolling. Watch and see if the ugly team doesn't cover more often than not and even win outright.

Above all else, you have to develop a certain experience level. You need to learn when to follow your gut instincts and when not to. If you do this long enough, you'll start to develop a sixth sense of sorts. Will it make you a 70% success rate? No, but it will add a few %age points to your success rate. The difference between picking 54% right and 58% is huge. If you don't believe that, do the math and see how dramatic it is over a large number of games.

For money management, I'm a strong believer in flat betting. I've lost far more "2 unit" plays over the years than I've won. Just stick with a flat betting amount. If you are hitting a good enough percentage of those, the $$$ will take care of itself. If you aren't hitting a good enough %age, then you won't win long term anyway. Also, NEVER adjust your bet amount during a season (or bet a %age of your bankroll). Betting is inherently and eerily streaky. You will get hot and win 15 out of 20 games over a couple of weeks. Your bankroll is substantially larger and you decide to jack up the bet amount. Guess what, you go 7 and 13 over the next 20 games. Although you've won 55% of your games, you ended up losing money b/c of your money management decision. A better way to do it increase your bet amounts from season to season.

One final bit of advice. Do not get caught up in your early success. Anyone can and does have periods where they are just unconscious. You'll know if you really can make a profit long term in 2006 if you are still having success. So, don't fantasize about giving up the day job, etc. Consider this as an enjoyable (though time-consuming and labor intensive) way to supplement your income from some other source.
 

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Do you really want to make a lot of money, or just entertain yourself while mostly getting the best of it? If you do this for entertainment mainly, stick to dogs, and read occasionally. Talk to 5 of your friends, and if they all agree on one play, play the opposite.

If you are serious about this as a profession, you need certain skills before you even entertain this field. You need to be a wiz at Algebra (just your typical 8th grade algebra).

You need to be fluent in the betting terminology, and understand it. A good way to get started is with a book "Sharp Sports Betting" by Stanford Wong. There are other good books out there, but this is really a MUST book for beginners. Read it once, read the forums for a month, and re-read it.

If you have mastered algebra and terminology, and read the forums, you probably know enough to break even, or even make a small profit each season. If you know smart people, or shop well, you can do well each year with no more knowledge or experience.

If you want to take it to the next level, you might consider handicapping sports yourself. There are two main methodologies I've seen that work. The first is becoming an encyclopedia for that sport. If you are looking at an NFL matchup, and you know the strengths and weaknesses of each team, how many turnovers each has, and individual matchups, you gain an edge.

The other methodology (my primary one) is statistical analysis of a sport. Get a prob/stat textbook, and work your way through it, from front to back. You need to embrace the standard deviation. Not just know the definition, but have a feel for what it is in sports. You need to understand the difference between a mean, median and mode. A lot of this isn't rocket science, but the applications must be effortless.

A goldmine for smaller players (i.e. bank less than 100k) is the prop bet. Prop bets are basically free money. It's not unusual for a prop player to hold 25% of his action (he makes 20k in wagers, and he's up 5k). Most props can be analyzed with basic statistics (means, standard deviations, and poisson distributions) or discrete and combinatorial analysis.

As your bankroll grows, you'll find that statistics become more and more important. If you do the math long enough, you will find many opportunities. The question then is not "What is good?" but "How good is it?". Risk analysis and risk management become your primary time consumers as your bank grows (at least until it is so large, that you want to bet more than you are able to on any event).

Hope that helps.
 

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daringly said:
Do you really want to make a lot of money, or just entertain yourself while mostly getting the best of it? If you do this for entertainment mainly, stick to dogs, and read occasionally. Talk to 5 of your friends, and if they all agree on one play, play the opposite.

If you are serious about this as a profession, you need certain skills before you even entertain this field. You need to be a wiz at Algebra (just your typical 8th grade algebra).

You need to be fluent in the betting terminology, and understand it. A good way to get started is with a book "Sharp Sports Betting" by Stanford Wong. There are other good books out there, but this is really a MUST book for beginners. Read it once, read the forums for a month, and re-read it.

If you have mastered algebra and terminology, and read the forums, you probably know enough to break even, or even make a small profit each season. If you know smart people, or shop well, you can do well each year with no more knowledge or experience.

If you want to take it to the next level, you might consider handicapping sports yourself. There are two main methodologies I've seen that work. The first is becoming an encyclopedia for that sport. If you are looking at an NFL matchup, and you know the strengths and weaknesses of each team, how many turnovers each has, and individual matchups, you gain an edge.

The other methodology (my primary one) is statistical analysis of a sport. Get a prob/stat textbook, and work your way through it, from front to back. You need to embrace the standard deviation. Not just know the definition, but have a feel for what it is in sports. You need to understand the difference between a mean, median and mode. A lot of this isn't rocket science, but the applications must be effortless.

A goldmine for smaller players (i.e. bank less than 100k) is the prop bet. Prop bets are basically free money. It's not unusual for a prop player to hold 25% of his action (he makes 20k in wagers, and he's up 5k). Most props can be analyzed with basic statistics (means, standard deviations, and poisson distributions) or discrete and combinatorial analysis.

As your bankroll grows, you'll find that statistics become more and more important. If you do the math long enough, you will find many opportunities. The question then is not "What is good?" but "How good is it?". Risk analysis and risk management become your primary time consumers as your bank grows (at least until it is so large, that you want to bet more than you are able to on any event).

Hope that helps.
great post daringly :aktion033 good advice
 

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Journey... do you have to quote his entire post to say 'great post'...

.:director: SPACE HOG
 

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I agree. Excellent post, daringly.

Critical and, more importantly, independent thinking is something I feel is also very important. Today, the online sports bettor has so much information a few clicks away, it can be overwhelming, and detrimental. Line shopping, basic math fluency, etc. are obviously extremely important, but being able to seperate the relevant information from irrelevant ultimately seperates the winners from the guys that tread water, imo.

I agree with daringly that there are two schools of successful handicapping, MatchupU and MathU. But before the matchup guy can be successful, he must first learn which mathcups will actually affect the outcome of the game(or whatever you're betting), and to what degree. The math guy must also decide which stats are useful and which aren't, and to what degree each matters.

Most of the stuff programmed into the beginning sports bettor, is wrong. Most of the info posted in these forums is wrong, most of the things that "analysts" feel will affect the outcome of a game are wrong, and most of the stats people feel is relevant to predicting the outcome of an event are wrong, or hold much less weight than they think.
 

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Listening to Fish, of course......:biglaugh: :awesom:
Holysmoke said:
this is my 2nd season wagering sports and I am fortunate to have a bankroll that is entirely the sportsbooks money, I have withdrawn all the money I deposited.

Is there a book or a way to become real good at this? How do you become a wiseguy? Is it just by the school of hard knocks?
 

RX Senior
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How did you guys learn to win in sports wagering
when I lived in cali, I ran into bruce willis in a sports bar and he took me under his wing. before I knew it, the books were sending me harley davidsons.
 

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doctor sarvis wrote

"For money management, I'm a strong believer in flat betting. I've lost far more "2 unit" plays over the years than I've won. Just stick with a flat betting amount. If you are hitting a good enough percentage of those, the $$$ will take care of itself. If you aren't hitting a good enough %age, then you won't win long term anyway. Also, NEVER adjust your bet amount during a season (or bet a %age of your bankroll). Betting is inherently and eerily streaky. You will get hot and win 15 out of 20 games over a couple of weeks. Your bankroll is substantially larger and you decide to jack up the bet amount. Guess what, you go 7 and 13 over the next 20 games. Although you've won 55% of your games, you ended up losing money b/c of your money management decision. A better way to do it increase your bet amounts from season to season."

Your other text was good, but I have to disagree with the text above. For some people flat betting might be a better solution, but with flat betting bettor must win 52.4% to show profit on -110/-110 lines. By adjusting size of a bet, bettor can show profit even if his/her winning percentage is below 50%. All bets doesn't have a same edge. Sometimes value is bigger, sometimes lower. So it should be with a size of a bet also.

For novice bettor who doesn't have a clue how much injury information or some other news affects teams possibilities, flat betting is an answer. For advanced bettors flat betting cuts your profits.
 

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These are SOME of the things that work for ME:

1) limit the number of plays per day to 6 or less

2) flat betting--don't play one game more than another

3) never pay or listen to handicappers

4) never bet based on emotion (favorite team or tv game)

5) you have to have a balance between using stats, lines moves, gut feeling, observational analysis (watching the games!), and intangibles. You can't just use one of these aspects and expect to win regularly.

6) don't play parlays

7) money management ( this is very involved but you have to know your bankroll and bet a precentage per play).

8) treat it like a part-time job

9) have a wide array of sportbook accounts (based on the size of your bankroll) and shop lines.

10) Never bet more than you can afford to lose.

These are in no particular order of importance. Good luck
 

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