Horse Racing 2-1-17

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At the Gate - Wednesday
By Mike Dempsey

Now that the $12 million Pegasus World Cup (G1) is out of the way, we flip the calendar over to February which means we have just three short months before the Kentucky Derby (G1).

Where does the time go?

Coming up on Saturday at Gulfstream Park is the $350,000 Holy Bull (G2) which will feature the return of the early Kentucky Derby betting favorite in Classic Empire, who is currently at odds of 3-1.

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner has won four of his five career starts, the lone loss when he veered out and dumped his jockey in the Hopeful (G1) last September at Saratoga.

The colt is trained by Mark Casse and has been ridden in his four wins by Julian Leparoux. Irad Ortiz Jr. was aboard in the Hopeful.

Among those he likely will face on Saturday is Gunnevera, the winner of the Delta Downs Jackpot (G3) in his last outing. The Antonio Sano trainee is listed at 10-1 in early Kentucky Derby wagering at Sportsbook.ag.

We have two other Derby points races on tap on Saturday—the $250,000 Withers (G3) at Aqueduct and the $150,000 Robert B. Lewis (G3) at Santa Anita.

I will include my analysis and selections for all three of the Derby preps in Saturday’s Best Plays Report.

Latest Future Odds for the Kentucky Derby:

Classic Empire 3-1
Uncontested 7-2
Mastery 5-1
Mc Craken 7-1
Running Mate 7-1
Squadron 7-1
Mo Town 15-2
Unique Bella 8-1
Irish War Cry 9-1
Gunnevera 10-1
Gormley 11-1
Fact Finding 14-1


Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:

GP Race 1 OClm $50,000SAL (12:35 ET)
#2 Devilish Romance 6-1
#1 Jermyn Street 4-1
#3 Blame It On Dixie 5-2
#6 Notapradaprice 6-1

Analysis: Devilish Romance tracked the early pace, caught in tight nearing the 3/8's and weakened to finish fifth last out against Alw-1 optional claimers at GP West. This gal ran a game second two back over the turf here in the Our Dear Peggy over good ground, beaten just a half-length. She returns here off a 3 1/2 month break as she makes her first start for the Fawkes barn that is 12% winners with newcomers to the barn. Looks well spotted for her return racing starter optional claimers.

Jermyn Street stalked the early pace, came with a four-wide bid around the far turn and finished evenly in a third-place fish as the beaten chalk last out in her first start against winners. She broke her maiden two back in her second career start at 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf at GP West. The Ward trainee does not need to move forward much off her last effort to win in this spot. She picks up Johnny V. and the 4-1 morning line looks fair enough.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,3,6
TRI: 1,2 / 1,2,3,6 / 1,2,3,4,6

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 7 Md $35,000 (3:32 ET)
#6 Ruckus 7-2
#8 So Long Chuck 3-1
#9 Durocher 8-1
#1 Legacy Azteca 4-1

Analysis: Ruckus was bumped coming out of the gate, prompted the early pace and faded badly to finish a well beaten 10th last out against a much tougher group. The winner Oscar Performance came back to win the Pilgrim (G3) and Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) in his next two starts. He drops in for a tag for the Nicks barn that is 15% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff.

So Long Chuck set the early fractions and could not hold off the winner late in a runner up finish in his turf debut. The winner Francesco Flier came back to beat $25,000 claimers in his next outing on Jan. 27. This guy is on the light side pedigree for turf, by Adios Charlie out of a Greatness mare who has dropped one dirt winner, but he has some early zip and may get loose on the lead in this spot.

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 6,8 / 1,6,8,9
TRI: 6,8 / 1,6,8,9 / 1,5,6,8,9

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Gulfstream Park
R2: #4 It’s High Time 8-1
R3: #2 Cowboy’s Hero 8-1
R5: #9 Clyde’s Queen 8-1
R7: #9 Durocher 8-1
R8: #5 Fast Fire 12-1
R10: #11 Salt Mine 10-1

Good luck today!
 
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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Monticello Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Post: 1:45 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 76 - Purse:$2700 - $4000 CLAIMING/ALLOWANCES J TAGGART JR 6 OVER 8
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 7 FOOLS GOLD 5/2
# 1 TOPGUN RAIDER 3/1
# 6 TALLDARKNHANDSOME 4/1

FOOLS GOLD is the best bet in this gathering. This race may be controlled by this horse. Just one look at the avgerage TrackMaster Speed Rating will verify that. It's somewhat dicey to consider solely based on class, but this horse has among the best class numbers of the group of horses. Has to be given a look based on the great TrackMaster SR achieved in the most recent race. TOPGUN RAIDER - Recorded a 70 speed figure in last race. A duplicate contest here should get the victory for this race. The consortium happens to know that when you put Merton and Basilone together really strong results happen frequently. TALLDARKNHANDSOME - If performance in the most recent race is representative, this standardbred will have a very nice shot today. High last race TrackMaster speed fig. Gelding has one of the top win percents in the pack and that could be the deciding factor when they hit the wire.
 
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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Northfield Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Post: 6:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 59 - Purse:$4800 - NON WINNERS $7500 LIFETIME.
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 5 BRIGHT STONE 3/1
# 7 OAKLEY DOAKLEY 2/1
# 3 SHINEONSPIRIT 12/1

BRIGHT STONE is the clear stand out play in the eyes of the consortium. Mare and driver go together like two peas in a pod. They finish in the money 66 percent of their races. Sugg has been able to get this harness racer to perform when sending to the post. Definite exotic possibilities. OAKLEY DOAKLEY - He's running in good form, recording huge speed ratings. An excellent selection. Had one of the top TrackMaster SRs of the group of animals in his last race. A good idea to use in your wagers. SHINEONSPIRIT - Nice shot today to get the win with second time Lasix. Mapes's figures say this trainer can take the whole enchilada off time off.
 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $11400 Class Rating: 91

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE AUGUST 1. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JANUARY 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 6 SHARP STICK 5/1

# 2 FLASH PAWS 4/1

# 7 INDIAN RED 3/1

My choice here is SHARP STICK. Has formidable Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a bet in this contest. He has a quite good distance/surface win record - 2 out of 8. FLASH PAWS - Overall the speed figures of this equine look solid in this race. Trainer boasts very strong win figures at this distance and surface. INDIAN RED - Has run well when racing a dirt route race. His chances to win are much better today facing this easier field.
 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turfway Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 4 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6100 Class Rating: 55

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 1A MR D'S WAY 4/1

# 8 TAKE THE LEAD 6/1

# 7 PI SAIL 7/2

I've got to go with MR D'S WAY. He has been travelling soundly recently while recording strong speed figures. Hancock has him trained well to break sharply out of the starting gate. Earned a decent Equibase Speed Figure last time out. TAKE THE LEAD - This pony could surprise this group at a nice price. Should expect a sound outing with the class drop. PI SAIL - Solid average Speed Figures in dirt sprint races make this racer a key contender. There is a decent chance that this entry's late pace will improve on Lasix.
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Charles Town - Race #3 - Post: 7:57pm - Maiden Special - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#6 TIZ OUR TIME (ML=5/2)


TIZ OUR TIME - I look for this racer to sit off the pace and make a big move on the turn, cruising straight on to the wire. Faced tougher last out at Laurel. Based on Equibase class ratings, this is a weaker group, so I will put this one on my list of contenders in this race. This mare's last speed fig notched on December 23rd is number one in last race Equibase speed figures.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 BAYSHORE DRIVE (ML=9/5), #3 SMOKIN' SEANCE (ML=9/2), #1 NEW BLUE CAT (ML=5/1),

BAYSHORE DRIVE - This runner has been letting down the bettors as the favorite time and time again. SMOKIN' SEANCE - I find it hard to wager on this steed this time out. Make her show you something in a sprint event before you wager on her in a race of 4 1/2 furlongs. Don't feel this vulnerable equine will do much running in today's event. That last speed rating was common when compared with today's class figure. NEW BLUE CAT - Morning line odds of 5/1 make this entrant a pass by my criteria.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - TIZ OUR TIME - I like to check out the TrackMaster Platinum PPs to look for the top horse in earnings per start. This race horse looks good to me so I'm making a wager on her.*
*


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#6 TIZ OUR TIME is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

6 with [1,3]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Gulfstream Park - Race #8 - Post: 4:02pm - Optional Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $40,000 Class Rating: 99

Rating:

#9 TOTAL JOINT (ML=6/1)


TOTAL JOINT - Using this jockey/trainer combination is a good decision. This gelding has 'tactical' speed, Lopez will use this advantage by laying in the catbird's seat behind the front runners, and getting first run on the leaders. I seem to always make money betting Servis horses on the turf. That barn has a powerful win pct for this distance/surface.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 COMPLETELY BONKERS (ML=7/2), #2 BOW TIE AFFAIR (ML=4/1), #8 NICHE (ML=5/1),

COMPLETELY BONKERS - Just don't think he is priced right at the probable odds. BOW TIE AFFAIR - Not the best 'situation' in this event. NICHE - 99/94/83, are the declining speed figs for this horse.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - TOTAL JOINT - Speculating on this noble animal is a smart move. He possesses the best speed figure in grass routes.
**


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#9 TOTAL JOINT is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

9 with 6

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:

None
 
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Northfield: Wednesday 2/1 Analysis + Pick Four Ticket
By Jeremey Day

DRF

Race 8 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick-4 Pool

Jeremey’s $1 Pick Four Play:

2 / 4,5,6 / 1,5 / 4,5,7,9 = $24


Best Bet: READYSETLETSROLL (7th)

Spot Play: ROYAL KEE WEE N (13th)


Race 1

(7) OAKLEY DOAKLEY showed a good burst last out just missing. (4) ONE GUITAR sophomore pacer makes his career debut against a suspect bunch. (5) BRIGHT STONE has just been racing evenly; command a price.

Race 2

(8) ROSE RUN PRINCESS should offer a big price and just needs to find a way into the race. (4) ONE DIRECTION might be ready for a good effort off the bench. (9) CROWNED WITH GLORY gets sent out for a low percentage pilot but is one of the fastest trotters in the race.

Race 3

(2) CULLENS BLUE JEAN should be able to beat this bunch with a smooth trip. (3) SOMEKINDAPARTY takes a good drop in class; threat. (5) SANTAS SPECIAL looks terrible on paper; use underneath.

Race 4

(3) MOTOWN MOE is very fast off the gate. The pacer just needs to ration out his speed. (4) P L DRAGON closed big ground last week from far back. (5) BREAKIN THE LAW went from empty to awesome last start against weaker.

Race 5

(8) ROYAL ASSASSIN needs to find a way into the race but is a threat with a good setup. (2) IRISH IHADA HARLEY takes a huge drop in class with the best driver. (7) TEAHOUSE HALL will offer a big price but is best used underneath.

Race 6

(1) KING MUSCLES looks to be in line for a great trip up close. (3) VAYA CON DIOS has burned cash in three straight; use caution. (9) HOORAY KATIE rarely wins but should be able to shake loose for a piece late.

Race 7

(8) READYSETLETSROLL was sharp off the layoff and should be ready for a better effort second time back. (3) NATHAN beat a softer bunch last week but does have another good starting post. (1) BRANDED GUN gets the best post in a weak and inconsistent field.

Race 8

(2) REDISCOVERY six-year-old stallion gets sent out for the top barn in the country against much weaker. (8) T RED is very inconsistent from week to week but is capable of hitting the ticket with a good effort. (3) HARDTS OR BETTOR has just been racing evenly but should be in line for a ground saving trip up close.

Race 9

(5) MEGATRON raced well last week just missing from a tough post. (6) UBETTERUBETTERUBET has been competitive against tougher on the year. (4) EWALD HANOVER gets sent out for proven connections.

Race 10

(1) STEVIE DIAMONDS gets the best post in a wide open and evenly matched race. (5) MAN HE CAN SCOOT was the driver's choice and will be used aggressively. (7) WAYNE THE LEFTY owns a lot of back class but needs a fast pace to close into.

Race 11

(5) VICIOUS LIES will look to make it two straight off an easy win off a layoff. (4) KICK A LOT takes a huge drop down in competition. (9) FEAR THE FOOTBALL should be closer turning for home this week; use underneath.

Race 12

(9) ADIOS AMIGOS pacer has been competitive at this level. (5) THESHARKSBACKNTOWN comes into the race off a win against similar last start. (2) MORGANSGETSHERWAY has room to improve for a new barn.

Race 13

(3) ROYAL KEE WEE N went a big three quarters of a mile last start before tiring late. If the pacer rations out his speed he will be tough to catch; driver's choice. (7) JETSTREAMDONTTOUCH raced well last out at this level and picks up the top driver. (5) JUMPIN JACK J is fast enough to compete but is probably best used underneath.

Race 14

(9) HERE COMES HUDD should have had more last week at this level but is one of few in the race that shows competitive lines. (7) BEACH BOY TOY could pick up the pieces late with a good setup. (4) AT DAYBREAK is 0 for the last two years; command a price.

Race 15

(9) IMA NUISANCE takes a significant drop in class; threat. (4) TOUCH AND GO veteran pacer should be much closer turning for home this week. (6) ELOCUTIONIST dominated a soft bunch down in class last week; needs more.

Race 16

(1) CANADIAN TOUCH picks up a huge driver change. If the pacer minds his manners he will be tough to beat. (2) I SCOOT FOR CASH is just now back in racing shape and has room to improve. (5) ENEE WEENIE AND ME pacer can jump up with good efforts from time to time.
 
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Spot Plays

For Wednesday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Charles Town (1st) Little Red Missile, 3-1
(7th) Tribal Heat, 3-1


Delta Downs (4th) Little Bita Gracie, 6-1
(8th) Dion, 7-2


Gulfstream Park (5th) Clyde’s Queen, 8-1
(8th) Bow Tie Affair, 4-1


Mahoning Valley (2nd) Spittin’ Feathers, 4-1
(6th) Humorous Chant, 8-1


Penn National (2nd) Flash Paws, 4-1
(5th) Legal Punch, 5-1


Tampa Bay Downs (6th) Ballinskelligs, 3-1
(9th) My Perfect Diamond, 5-1


Turf Paradise (5th) Denali South Peak, 5-1
(8th) Legal Affair, 5-1


Turfway Park (2nd) Ichtli, 4-1
(9th) Ambrose, 4-1
 

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