At the Gate - Friday
By Mike Dempsey
Friday would be a good day to send your relatives to the mall, as we have the $500,000 Clark Handicap (G1) on tap at Churchill Downs and three stakes on the card at Aqueduct.
The Clark drew a solid field of 10 led by the winners of the last two editions, Hoppertunity and Effinex, who both exit the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).
Hoppertnity did not get much pace to run at in the Classic and ran his usual race, which was good for fourth. He came into that race off a sharp win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) at Belmont Park.
Effinex, last year’s Clark winner and Classic runner up tossed in a real dud in this year’s Classic, fading to finish seventh and beaten 24 lengths. He had run tripe digit Beyer Speed Figures in seven of his eight previous starts.
I am going with Noble Bird, who comes into the race off a gate to wire score in the Fayette Stakes (G2) at Keeneland.
His win this spring in the Pimlico Special (G3) where he won by 11 ¼ lengths and earned a 110 Beyer was one of the best performances we had seen from an older horse, but then he ran a couple of real duds.
The Mark Casse trainee seems back on track and he showed in his win in the 2015 Stephen Foster (G1) that he likes the Churchill Downs main track.
The Big A card features a pair of stakes that were canceled last Sunday—a $125,000 New York Stallions Series race along with the $100,000 Key Cents for two-year-old fillies.
Also on the card is the $125,000 Winter Memories for three-year-old fillies going 1 1/16 miles on turf.
We have a big day on Saturday at the Big A featuring the $300,000 Remsen (G2), a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race, and the $500,000 Cigar Mile (G1), the final Grade 1 race in New York for 2016.
My Best Plays Report for Friday includes my 10 strongest plays from Aqueduct and Churchill Downs including all of the stakes action.
Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Md $25,000 (11:50 ET)
#5 Primo Pentimento 3-1
#6 Dan the Man 5-2
#1 Apollo Eleven 7-2
#7 Two Down One to Go 5-1
Analysis: Primo Pentimento pressed the early pace and faded to finish 10th last out going long on turf against state bred maiden special weight foes and now drops in for a tag for the first time while switching back to dirt. He was on slop two back and his lone go over a fast track was his sixth in his debut going 6 1/2 at the Spa. Pedigree wise he is better suited for the main track, by First Dude out of a Repent mare that has dropped one winner. He gets a jock upgrade here from "No Go" to Gallardo.
Dan the Man faded to finish a well beaten sixth last out and also drops back in for a tag. Two back at this level this guy came with a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot. The blinkers go on for the Klesaris barn and the gelding has landed in the money in 4 of 6 trips on the main track. He is out of a Claramount mare that has dropped five other foals to race, four winners.
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 5,6 / 1,5,6,7
TRI: 5,6 / 1,5,6,7 / 1,5,6,7,8
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 8 The Winter Memories (3:20 ET)
#10 Gioia Stella 8-1
#11 Noble Beauty 7-2
#6 Danilovna 6-1
#1 My Impression 3-1
Analysis: Gioia Stella was a good looking winner last out as our top pick beating Alw-1 company at Belmont Park in her first start off a three month break. This gal looks capable of stepping into this tougher spot. Clement thought enough of her to try her in the Wonder Again in her first start against winners where she was seventh and then she was fourth against a tough field of Alw-1 foes. The winner of that race was On Leave, who won the Riskaverse and Sands Point (G2) in her next two starts. This gal has a nice pedigree, out of a Belong to Me mare that has dropped three other winners and two are stakes winners.
Noble Beauty was entered at Churchill Downs today but Brown says she will stay here for this race. She acted up and broke through the gate last out prior to her runner up finish in the Commonwealth Oaks (G2) at Laurel Park, beaten 3 1/4 lengths by My Impression. She was placed first two back thanks to a DQ in the Picker Up (G3) at Arlington Park. She returns here off a tow month break and fits well in this spot despite the outside draw.
Wagering
WIN: #10 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 10,11 / 1,6,10,11
TRI: 10,11 / 1,6,10,11 / 1,3,6,10,11
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Churchill Downs:
CD Race 6 11 The Clark Hcp G1 (5:56 ET)
#6 Noble Bird 7-2
#9 Hoppertunity 5-2
#1 Gun Runner 4-1
#4 Shaman Ghost 8-1
Analysis: Noble Bird comes into this race off a sharp gate to wire win in the Fayette (G2) over the main track here. The five-year-old won the Lukas Classic in gate to wire here two back and has landed in the exacta in three of his four trips under the Twin Spires. He won the Stephen Foster Handicap (G1) here last June, but then was beaten 24 ½ lengths in his next start. He earned a career top speed fig winning the Pimlico Special (G3) back in May and then was beaten in his next two starts by a combined 30 lengths. He may have the tactical advantage here if able to shake loose early and that may depend on what kind of early zip we see out of Mr. Z. I’ll take a positive look he won’t regress in this spot but would like to catch most of the 7-2 morning line.
Hoppertunity won the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) two back at Belmont Park and I gave him a good shot of pulling off the upset in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) but he did not get enough pace to run at and ran his usual race, which was good enough for just fourth as the top pair ran huge. The Baffert trainee has run well here, taking this race in 2014 and running second to Effinex last year. He certainly is more reliable than our top pick as he just seems to run consistently, earning triple digit Beyers in 10 of his last 12 starts, and 99 figs in those other two trips.
Gun Runner tracked the early pace, took over the lead and could not hold off my top pick Tamarkuz in deep stretch in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) and had to settle for second. He ran well in a runner up finish in the Pennsylvania Derby (G2) two back at nine furlongs and he has run well over the main track here, winning the Matt Winn (G3) and running third in the Kentucky Derby (G1). He took the field gate to wire in his Matt Winn victory and with the rail draw figures to be in the mix early.
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 6,9 / 1,4,6,9
TRI: 6,9 / 1,4,6,9 / 1,2,4,6,9
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct
R2: #6 Majestic Tango 15-1
R6: #8 Devilish Grin 8-1
R6: #6 Mr Curiosity 10-1
R8: #10 Gioia Stella 8-1
R9: #3 Wilbernmoney 15-1
R9 #2 Iron Mizz 8-1
Good luck today!