At the Gate - Wednesday
By Mike Dempsey
Hey, it’s just 171 days until the first Saturday of May! Let the Road to the Kentucky Derby commence.
Actually, the Road to the Kentucky Debry points races started on Sept. 17 with the Iroquois (G3) which was run Churchill Downs.
We have a big one coming up on Saturday with the $1 million Delta Downs Jackpot (G3) which will have 10-4-2-1 Derby points up for grabs.
Last year’s winner was Exaggerator, who went on to win the Preakness Stakes (G1) the this spring.
A field of 10 will line up led by Gunnevera, the 5-2 morning line favorite. The colt is trained by Antonio Sano and won the Saratoga Special (G2) back in August and then in his first two turn attempt came up short in a fifth-place finish in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland.
That race was won by Classic Empire, who went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) in impressive fashion in his next outing. The colt is the current early betting favorite for the Kentucky Derby at +700. He sits atop the Road to the Kentucky Derby points standings with 30.
The second choice in early Derby betting is Juvenile runner up Not This Time, who was beaten just a neck. The colt won the Iroquois in his previous outing, picking up 10 Derby points to go along with eight earned for his Juvenile performance, his 18 points good for second in the Derby points standings.
Beach Bum has dropped down to +1500, good for third choice in early betting for the Derby. The colt broke his maiden in his debut by 5 ¼ lengths at Santa Anita on Nov. 6. The colt is trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert.
We will take a close look at the Delta Downs Jackpot on Saturday.;
Kentucky Derby Future Odds:
Classic Empire +700
Not This Time +900
Beach Bum +1500
Gormley +1800
Klimt +2000
Practical Joke +2000
Big Gray Rocket +2500
Mastery +2500
Theory +2500
Three Rules +2500
Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Md $25,000 (12:20 ET)
#2 Katie Ice 5-2
#1 Three Eighty Eight 7-2
#10 Brandi's Diva 6-1
#4 Champagne Therapy 6-1
Analysis: Katie Ice dueled for the early lead and battled on gamely until late, settling for the runner up spot while beaten a length for the top spot. The filly was making her first start off a 2 1/2 month break for the Bruce Brown barn. Gallardo sticks for another go and she does not need to move forward much off her last outing to beat this group of state breds. She is out of a Forest Camp mare that has dropped two other foals to race, one winner.
Three Eighty Eight had to steady coming out of the gate, was at the back of the pack early and finished evenly in a sixth place finish last out for a $40,000 tag. She was claimed for the third time in her four career starts, today going for the Rice barn that is 26% winners first off the claim. A clean break makes her the one to beat here. She is out of an Untuttable mare that has dropped one winner. Pedigree wise she seems suited to the surface switch here. Rice is 37% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from turf to dirt.
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,4,10
TRI: 1,2 / 1,2,4,10 / 1,2,4,6,10
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 6 Alw $50,000s (2:47 ET)
#3 Late Night Mark 4-1
#7 Mav 5-1
#6 Steamboat Bill 7-2
#8 Marchant 6-1
Analysis: Late Night Mark made a good late rally and drew off smartly to beat $25,000 non-winners of two last out over the turf here. The gelding has rounded into the best form of his career with the switch to Gallardo and looks well spotted her taking on $50,000 starter allowance foes. Looks capable of winning right back in this spot.
Mav pressed the early pace and battled on gamely in the stretch to keep his nose in front and beat $40,000 non-winners of two last out for Weaver. He was claimed out of the race by the Cox barn that is 24% winners first off the claim. He was beaten just a head at this condition three back at the Spa going a mile on turf. The barn does good work with recent claims and this guy does not need to move forward much off his last effort to be in the mix in this spot.
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 3,7 / 3,6,7,8
TRI: 3,7 / 3,6,7,8 / 3,4,6,7,8
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct
R2: #9 Rahy’s Bandit 10-1
R3: #7 Deuces High 8-1
R4: #190 Jonquil 12-1
R5: #6 Little Jerry 8-1
R8: #6 Mister Brightside 8-1
Good luck today!
By Mike Dempsey
Hey, it’s just 171 days until the first Saturday of May! Let the Road to the Kentucky Derby commence.
Actually, the Road to the Kentucky Debry points races started on Sept. 17 with the Iroquois (G3) which was run Churchill Downs.
We have a big one coming up on Saturday with the $1 million Delta Downs Jackpot (G3) which will have 10-4-2-1 Derby points up for grabs.
Last year’s winner was Exaggerator, who went on to win the Preakness Stakes (G1) the this spring.
A field of 10 will line up led by Gunnevera, the 5-2 morning line favorite. The colt is trained by Antonio Sano and won the Saratoga Special (G2) back in August and then in his first two turn attempt came up short in a fifth-place finish in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland.
That race was won by Classic Empire, who went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) in impressive fashion in his next outing. The colt is the current early betting favorite for the Kentucky Derby at +700. He sits atop the Road to the Kentucky Derby points standings with 30.
The second choice in early Derby betting is Juvenile runner up Not This Time, who was beaten just a neck. The colt won the Iroquois in his previous outing, picking up 10 Derby points to go along with eight earned for his Juvenile performance, his 18 points good for second in the Derby points standings.
Beach Bum has dropped down to +1500, good for third choice in early betting for the Derby. The colt broke his maiden in his debut by 5 ¼ lengths at Santa Anita on Nov. 6. The colt is trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert.
We will take a close look at the Delta Downs Jackpot on Saturday.;
Kentucky Derby Future Odds:
Classic Empire +700
Not This Time +900
Beach Bum +1500
Gormley +1800
Klimt +2000
Practical Joke +2000
Big Gray Rocket +2500
Mastery +2500
Theory +2500
Three Rules +2500
Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Md $25,000 (12:20 ET)
#2 Katie Ice 5-2
#1 Three Eighty Eight 7-2
#10 Brandi's Diva 6-1
#4 Champagne Therapy 6-1
Analysis: Katie Ice dueled for the early lead and battled on gamely until late, settling for the runner up spot while beaten a length for the top spot. The filly was making her first start off a 2 1/2 month break for the Bruce Brown barn. Gallardo sticks for another go and she does not need to move forward much off her last outing to beat this group of state breds. She is out of a Forest Camp mare that has dropped two other foals to race, one winner.
Three Eighty Eight had to steady coming out of the gate, was at the back of the pack early and finished evenly in a sixth place finish last out for a $40,000 tag. She was claimed for the third time in her four career starts, today going for the Rice barn that is 26% winners first off the claim. A clean break makes her the one to beat here. She is out of an Untuttable mare that has dropped one winner. Pedigree wise she seems suited to the surface switch here. Rice is 37% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from turf to dirt.
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,4,10
TRI: 1,2 / 1,2,4,10 / 1,2,4,6,10
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 6 Alw $50,000s (2:47 ET)
#3 Late Night Mark 4-1
#7 Mav 5-1
#6 Steamboat Bill 7-2
#8 Marchant 6-1
Analysis: Late Night Mark made a good late rally and drew off smartly to beat $25,000 non-winners of two last out over the turf here. The gelding has rounded into the best form of his career with the switch to Gallardo and looks well spotted her taking on $50,000 starter allowance foes. Looks capable of winning right back in this spot.
Mav pressed the early pace and battled on gamely in the stretch to keep his nose in front and beat $40,000 non-winners of two last out for Weaver. He was claimed out of the race by the Cox barn that is 24% winners first off the claim. He was beaten just a head at this condition three back at the Spa going a mile on turf. The barn does good work with recent claims and this guy does not need to move forward much off his last effort to be in the mix in this spot.
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 3,7 / 3,6,7,8
TRI: 3,7 / 3,6,7,8 / 3,4,6,7,8
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct
R2: #9 Rahy’s Bandit 10-1
R3: #7 Deuces High 8-1
R4: #190 Jonquil 12-1
R5: #6 Little Jerry 8-1
R8: #6 Mister Brightside 8-1
Good luck today!
Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Dover Downs
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 7 - Post: 6:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 82 - Purse:$4500 - HORSES/COLTS/GELDINGS CLAIMING $7,500 WITH ALLOWANCES DELAWARE OWNED OR BRED
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES
# 5 ITS OUTTA HERE 5/2
# 2 ALEX SHREDDER 20/1
# 1 TARA MICKET 9/2
After thorough analysis by the brain trust, ITS OUTTA HERE comes out as the top pick. The 5 position is on fire here at Dover Downs. More wins than is normal. ALEX SHREDDER - Some trainers just fit better with certain horses. That seems to be the case today with Marsh. A respectable bet. TARA MICKET - This solid standardbred looks strong. Look at the 82 average TrackMaster Speed Rating. Been competing with some tougher customers of late, has a distinct class edge. (Average Rating 85).
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 7 - Post: 6:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 82 - Purse:$4500 - HORSES/COLTS/GELDINGS CLAIMING $7,500 WITH ALLOWANCES DELAWARE OWNED OR BRED
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES
# 5 ITS OUTTA HERE 5/2
# 2 ALEX SHREDDER 20/1
# 1 TARA MICKET 9/2
After thorough analysis by the brain trust, ITS OUTTA HERE comes out as the top pick. The 5 position is on fire here at Dover Downs. More wins than is normal. ALEX SHREDDER - Some trainers just fit better with certain horses. That seems to be the case today with Marsh. A respectable bet. TARA MICKET - This solid standardbred looks strong. Look at the 82 average TrackMaster Speed Rating. Been competing with some tougher customers of late, has a distinct class edge. (Average Rating 85).
Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Harrah's Philadelphia
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 8 - Post: 3:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 88 - Purse:$9000 - NW $4,500 IN LAST 5 STARTS STARTERS IN A CLASS HIGHER THAN NW7500 OR A WINNER THIS CLASS IN LAST START INELIGIBLE PA PREFERENCE NO. 9 STARTS FROM 2ND TIER
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES
# 4 JUST GOT PAID 3/1
# 5 CHINA KING 4/1
# 8 ONE AND ONLY 4/1
JUST GOT PAID looks very good to best this group of animals. Has formidable speed ratings and surely has to be considered for a wager in this one. Many analyzers will recognize the top notch speed fig in the last race. Stacks up against any horse in this pack. Drawing the 4 position at this track has lead to a much higher than average win statistic. CHINA KING - Loved this gelding's last race. Ran a big 85 speed figure. Major contender. A really strong win figure has been earned by nice horses beginning from the 5 slot. ONE AND ONLY - Exhibits the look of a profitable play, averaging a rather good 89 speed rating. Comes into this outing with respectable TrackMaster class ratings as compared to the race - take a good look.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 8 - Post: 3:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 88 - Purse:$9000 - NW $4,500 IN LAST 5 STARTS STARTERS IN A CLASS HIGHER THAN NW7500 OR A WINNER THIS CLASS IN LAST START INELIGIBLE PA PREFERENCE NO. 9 STARTS FROM 2ND TIER
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES
# 4 JUST GOT PAID 3/1
# 5 CHINA KING 4/1
# 8 ONE AND ONLY 4/1
JUST GOT PAID looks very good to best this group of animals. Has formidable speed ratings and surely has to be considered for a wager in this one. Many analyzers will recognize the top notch speed fig in the last race. Stacks up against any horse in this pack. Drawing the 4 position at this track has lead to a much higher than average win statistic. CHINA KING - Loved this gelding's last race. Ran a big 85 speed figure. Major contender. A really strong win figure has been earned by nice horses beginning from the 5 slot. ONE AND ONLY - Exhibits the look of a profitable play, averaging a rather good 89 speed rating. Comes into this outing with respectable TrackMaster class ratings as compared to the race - take a good look.
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Churchill Downs
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 5 - Allowance - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $70000 Class Rating: 105
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A SWEEPSTAKES ON THE TURF IN 2016 ALLOWED 2 LBS. $45,000 ON THE TURF SINCE APRIL 8 ALLOWED 4 LBS. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN
RECOMMENDED*CHOICES
# 6 BIBBY 5/1
# 5 CLAIRENATION 3/1
# 4 MELALEUCA 7/2
My pick in this competition is BIBBY. This filly is a key contender based on her earnings per start in turf sprint contests. May go off at a nice price and has some positive things going for her. The Equibase Speed Figure of 115 from her latest race looks quite good in here. CLAIRENATION - Foley has shown excellent profits (+29 return on investment ) with horses in turf sprint events. Is a contender - given the 105 speed rating from her most recent race. MELALEUCA - She has been running well recently while recording solid Equibase Speed Figures.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 5 - Allowance - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $70000 Class Rating: 105
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A SWEEPSTAKES ON THE TURF IN 2016 ALLOWED 2 LBS. $45,000 ON THE TURF SINCE APRIL 8 ALLOWED 4 LBS. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN
RECOMMENDED*CHOICES
# 6 BIBBY 5/1
# 5 CLAIRENATION 3/1
# 4 MELALEUCA 7/2
My pick in this competition is BIBBY. This filly is a key contender based on her earnings per start in turf sprint contests. May go off at a nice price and has some positive things going for her. The Equibase Speed Figure of 115 from her latest race looks quite good in here. CLAIRENATION - Foley has shown excellent profits (+29 return on investment ) with horses in turf sprint events. Is a contender - given the 105 speed rating from her most recent race. MELALEUCA - She has been running well recently while recording solid Equibase Speed Figures.
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 2 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10500 Class Rating: 83
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 16 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000
RECOMMENDED*CHOICES
# 2 FREE FLYING 8/5
# 1A LADY PANTHER 8/1
# 3 ISTRUE 7/2
FREE FLYING is the most favorable wager in this race. Is a strong contender based on figures earned recently under today's conditions. She should be given consideration given the very good speed figures. LADY PANTHER - The speed rating of 65 from her last contest looks respectable in here. ISTRUE - Well above average win clip at this distance/surface. Ought to come out very solid - I have liked the way this mare has moved speedily to the front end recently.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 2 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10500 Class Rating: 83
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 16 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000
RECOMMENDED*CHOICES
# 2 FREE FLYING 8/5
# 1A LADY PANTHER 8/1
# 3 ISTRUE 7/2
FREE FLYING is the most favorable wager in this race. Is a strong contender based on figures earned recently under today's conditions. She should be given consideration given the very good speed figures. LADY PANTHER - The speed rating of 65 from her last contest looks respectable in here. ISTRUE - Well above average win clip at this distance/surface. Ought to come out very solid - I have liked the way this mare has moved speedily to the front end recently.
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Turf Paradise - Race #2 - Post: 1:11pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,000 Class Rating: 76
Rating:
#7 HERETOPLAY (ML=3/1)
HERETOPLAY - Really think this horse is going to be really close at the finish line.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 PREACHINATSAGOI (ML=9/5), #4 LOSTINTHISMOMENT (ML=7/2), #6 ITSHERPREROGATIVE (ML=5/1),
PREACHINATSAGOI - Hard to take this entrant at the odds after the result (eighth) in the last affair. Tough to put your cash on the win end of any thoroughbred that finishes second and third as frequently as this thoroughbred does. The speed rating last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's race. Mark this entrant as a likely underpriced contender. LOSTINTHISMOMENT - When looking at today's class rating, she will have to notch a better fig than last time out to compete in this dirt sprint. ITSHERPREROGATIVE - No success for this runner in a sprint event over the last 60 days tells me that this mare is in a formidable spot
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#7 HERETOPLAY to win at post-time odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
Turf Paradise - Race #2 - Post: 1:11pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,000 Class Rating: 76
Rating:
#7 HERETOPLAY (ML=3/1)
HERETOPLAY - Really think this horse is going to be really close at the finish line.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 PREACHINATSAGOI (ML=9/5), #4 LOSTINTHISMOMENT (ML=7/2), #6 ITSHERPREROGATIVE (ML=5/1),
PREACHINATSAGOI - Hard to take this entrant at the odds after the result (eighth) in the last affair. Tough to put your cash on the win end of any thoroughbred that finishes second and third as frequently as this thoroughbred does. The speed rating last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's race. Mark this entrant as a likely underpriced contender. LOSTINTHISMOMENT - When looking at today's class rating, she will have to notch a better fig than last time out to compete in this dirt sprint. ITSHERPREROGATIVE - No success for this runner in a sprint event over the last 60 days tells me that this mare is in a formidable spot
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#7 HERETOPLAY to win at post-time odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Hawthorne - Race #3 - Post: 3:20pm - Allowance - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $20,700 Class Rating: 89
Rating:
#3 SHOWERSOFBLESSINGS (ML=3/1)
#4 SILVER KITTY (ML=9/2)
SHOWERSOFBLESSINGS - I like when a race sets up this way. This mare has the lone pace to crush this field. Taking a big drop in Equibase class figure points from her October 29th race at Hawthorne. Based on that information, I will give this thoroughbred the advantage. This equine didn't run well on the soft turf in her last race at Hawthorne. You should toss that showing. SILVER KITTY - This filly should find these state breds easier than what she faced in her last contest on October 26th. You probably want to toss that last affair at Indiana Downs on the soft turf where she finished out of the money. Should do well in this event on a fast track.
Vulnerable Contenders: #5 PRAIRIE CHICK (ML=2/1), #1 BYLIA (ML=5/1), #2 IMA LITTLE KITTEN (ML=6/1),
PRAIRIE CHICK - Hasn't raced or had any works since Oct 20th. Not much value on this morning-line choice. BYLIA - I cannot play this frequent non-winner. Gets the job done now and then. IMA LITTLE KITTEN - This vulnerable equine showed very little last time out of the box finishing eighth. No reason to expect any betterment today.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#3 SHOWERSOFBLESSINGS to win at post-time odds of 7/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
Hawthorne - Race #3 - Post: 3:20pm - Allowance - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $20,700 Class Rating: 89
Rating:
#3 SHOWERSOFBLESSINGS (ML=3/1)
#4 SILVER KITTY (ML=9/2)
SHOWERSOFBLESSINGS - I like when a race sets up this way. This mare has the lone pace to crush this field. Taking a big drop in Equibase class figure points from her October 29th race at Hawthorne. Based on that information, I will give this thoroughbred the advantage. This equine didn't run well on the soft turf in her last race at Hawthorne. You should toss that showing. SILVER KITTY - This filly should find these state breds easier than what she faced in her last contest on October 26th. You probably want to toss that last affair at Indiana Downs on the soft turf where she finished out of the money. Should do well in this event on a fast track.
Vulnerable Contenders: #5 PRAIRIE CHICK (ML=2/1), #1 BYLIA (ML=5/1), #2 IMA LITTLE KITTEN (ML=6/1),
PRAIRIE CHICK - Hasn't raced or had any works since Oct 20th. Not much value on this morning-line choice. BYLIA - I cannot play this frequent non-winner. Gets the job done now and then. IMA LITTLE KITTEN - This vulnerable equine showed very little last time out of the box finishing eighth. No reason to expect any betterment today.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#3 SHOWERSOFBLESSINGS to win at post-time odds of 7/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct
RACE #5 - AQUEDUCT - 2:17 PM EASTERN POST
8.0 FURLONGS DIRT THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $20,000.00 CLAIMING $40,000.00 PURSE
#5 OUR CARAVAN
#2 MR PALMER / #2B WIZARDLY
#4 SINISTRA
#7 MR. CANADA
#5 OUR CARAVAN takes a class drop (-12), is the overall speed leader in this claiming field racing at the mile distance on the dirt, and has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each of his last five starts, hitting the board in three of those "adventures," including a "POWER RUN WIN" facing better company (+4) in his 5th race back. Jockey Jose Ortiz and Trainer Linda Rice send him to the post ... they've hit the board with 54% of nearly 150 entries saddled as a team to date. #2 MR PALMER is the pace profile leader in this field, has hit the board in four of his last five outings, with three of those efforts, including a win in his 2nd race back, also qualifying as "POWER RUNS." The stablemate, #2B WIZARDLY has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in four of his last five starts.
RACE #5 - AQUEDUCT - 2:17 PM EASTERN POST
8.0 FURLONGS DIRT THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $20,000.00 CLAIMING $40,000.00 PURSE
#5 OUR CARAVAN
#2 MR PALMER / #2B WIZARDLY
#4 SINISTRA
#7 MR. CANADA
#5 OUR CARAVAN takes a class drop (-12), is the overall speed leader in this claiming field racing at the mile distance on the dirt, and has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each of his last five starts, hitting the board in three of those "adventures," including a "POWER RUN WIN" facing better company (+4) in his 5th race back. Jockey Jose Ortiz and Trainer Linda Rice send him to the post ... they've hit the board with 54% of nearly 150 entries saddled as a team to date. #2 MR PALMER is the pace profile leader in this field, has hit the board in four of his last five outings, with three of those efforts, including a win in his 2nd race back, also qualifying as "POWER RUNS." The stablemate, #2B WIZARDLY has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in four of his last five starts.
Northfield: Wednesday 11/16 Analysis
By Jeremey Day
DRF
Race 8 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Best Bet: MARGARITA MAN (7th)
Spot Play: BOUNTY (5th)
Race 1
In a wide open race, (5) MORELAND FLASHBACK will offer a big price and had some decent late trot last start. (6) VALENEOUS filly is one of few in the race with a pari-mutuel win. (2) DEFENDING CHAMP gets an excellent post and should be in line for a better trip.
Race 2
(2) METRO'S TWIST has some positives adding lasix coming off a win in the qualifier. (3) LIMA ILLUSION has room to improve against weaker. (6) YONDERCOMESAPONDER lightly raced pacer also has room to improve in his third career start.
Race 3
(2) ROCKIN H DASHING O will look to make it two straight at this level. (9) RUGGED HEART beat a similar bunch last start; threat. (1) ECHO'S ANNIE burned cash last week off of soft fractions; use caution.
Race 4
(1) FOLLOW THROUGH should be much closer turning for home this week; threat. (4) TIMELY FINESSE has just been racing evenly and could use a good setup. (3) LIMA RITCH is very inconsistent from week to week.
Race 5
(1) BOUNTY will look to rebound down in class benefiting from the best post. (2) ACTION-EAR-TO-EAR has just been racing evenly but is capable at this level. (5) NANNIE OAKLY picks up the top driver against much weaker.
Race 6
(9) BETTER TO BELIEVE well bred pacer should find this spot much more to his liking. (5) KIRKTONS CREDIT is one of few contenders in the race and will offer a nice price. (4) CHICAGOSONAROLL will look to make it three wins in four starts.
Race 7
(7) MARGARITA MAN takes a huge dropdown with the top driver. (9) ALLSTAR-JOSH shows some good miles but has question marks coming to the small track. (3) QUANTUM CASHMAN put in two good efforts in a row.
Race 8
(3) ONEFINEJIMMERJOHN raced well a few weeks ago against a slightly better bunch. (4) MODEL NINETYFOUR will look to make it two straight at against similar. (9) COLD HEARTED SHARK gets sent out for the top barn but has been inconsistent from week to week.
Race 9
(5) CRAZOLO five-year-old is just now back in racing shape and should be ready for an improved effort. (1) WHERES THE CLICKER gets the best post in a field full of question marks. (4) ERGO HANOVER could need a start but was sharp in the qualifier.
Race 10
(1) ARTS-ROCKSTAR picks up a huge driver change; threat. (8) GAMBLERS ANONYMOUS shouldn't be counted out even with the tough post. The mare's last effort might be good enough to repeat. (3) MS SOLONGBYEBYE has always been camera shy; fires late.
Race 11
(1) P L DRAGON might offer the better price of the contenders. (5) PROMISED THE MOON veteran pacer was sharp last start winning for the first time in more than two years. (6) ART BETTER NOW picks up the top driver in against a suspect bunch.
Race 12
(3) FLYING MUSCLES should be much closer turning for home this week. (4) MAKIN GREEN LAVEC has made the most money in the field on the year. (2) HELLO CHIPPER trotting mare looks to be in line for a nice trip up close.
Race 13
(5) GUN SHOW gelding gets a big post edge on his main rival. (8) IMA NUISANCE if the stallion can find a way to get towed into it or a decent early spot off the gate he can threaten. (2) RIVER CITY has been competitive in two straight.
Race 14
(5) JULIANA'S DIRECTOR was impressive last week against similar. (7) KATIE AND J will need more to pick off the top choice. (9) BONJOUR MADAM has yet to win on the year but is one of few in the race that's shown a good burst of speed.
Race 15
(4) LYNARD picks up a big driver change in a field full of question marks. (9) WINTER CRUISE burned cash at this level last week; use caution. (1) GUNNIN' FORAFIGHT gets the best post against a suspect bunch.
By Jeremey Day
DRF
Race 8 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Best Bet: MARGARITA MAN (7th)
Spot Play: BOUNTY (5th)
Race 1
In a wide open race, (5) MORELAND FLASHBACK will offer a big price and had some decent late trot last start. (6) VALENEOUS filly is one of few in the race with a pari-mutuel win. (2) DEFENDING CHAMP gets an excellent post and should be in line for a better trip.
Race 2
(2) METRO'S TWIST has some positives adding lasix coming off a win in the qualifier. (3) LIMA ILLUSION has room to improve against weaker. (6) YONDERCOMESAPONDER lightly raced pacer also has room to improve in his third career start.
Race 3
(2) ROCKIN H DASHING O will look to make it two straight at this level. (9) RUGGED HEART beat a similar bunch last start; threat. (1) ECHO'S ANNIE burned cash last week off of soft fractions; use caution.
Race 4
(1) FOLLOW THROUGH should be much closer turning for home this week; threat. (4) TIMELY FINESSE has just been racing evenly and could use a good setup. (3) LIMA RITCH is very inconsistent from week to week.
Race 5
(1) BOUNTY will look to rebound down in class benefiting from the best post. (2) ACTION-EAR-TO-EAR has just been racing evenly but is capable at this level. (5) NANNIE OAKLY picks up the top driver against much weaker.
Race 6
(9) BETTER TO BELIEVE well bred pacer should find this spot much more to his liking. (5) KIRKTONS CREDIT is one of few contenders in the race and will offer a nice price. (4) CHICAGOSONAROLL will look to make it three wins in four starts.
Race 7
(7) MARGARITA MAN takes a huge dropdown with the top driver. (9) ALLSTAR-JOSH shows some good miles but has question marks coming to the small track. (3) QUANTUM CASHMAN put in two good efforts in a row.
Race 8
(3) ONEFINEJIMMERJOHN raced well a few weeks ago against a slightly better bunch. (4) MODEL NINETYFOUR will look to make it two straight at against similar. (9) COLD HEARTED SHARK gets sent out for the top barn but has been inconsistent from week to week.
Race 9
(5) CRAZOLO five-year-old is just now back in racing shape and should be ready for an improved effort. (1) WHERES THE CLICKER gets the best post in a field full of question marks. (4) ERGO HANOVER could need a start but was sharp in the qualifier.
Race 10
(1) ARTS-ROCKSTAR picks up a huge driver change; threat. (8) GAMBLERS ANONYMOUS shouldn't be counted out even with the tough post. The mare's last effort might be good enough to repeat. (3) MS SOLONGBYEBYE has always been camera shy; fires late.
Race 11
(1) P L DRAGON might offer the better price of the contenders. (5) PROMISED THE MOON veteran pacer was sharp last start winning for the first time in more than two years. (6) ART BETTER NOW picks up the top driver in against a suspect bunch.
Race 12
(3) FLYING MUSCLES should be much closer turning for home this week. (4) MAKIN GREEN LAVEC has made the most money in the field on the year. (2) HELLO CHIPPER trotting mare looks to be in line for a nice trip up close.
Race 13
(5) GUN SHOW gelding gets a big post edge on his main rival. (8) IMA NUISANCE if the stallion can find a way to get towed into it or a decent early spot off the gate he can threaten. (2) RIVER CITY has been competitive in two straight.
Race 14
(5) JULIANA'S DIRECTOR was impressive last week against similar. (7) KATIE AND J will need more to pick off the top choice. (9) BONJOUR MADAM has yet to win on the year but is one of few in the race that's shown a good burst of speed.
Race 15
(4) LYNARD picks up a big driver change in a field full of question marks. (9) WINTER CRUISE burned cash at this level last week; use caution. (1) GUNNIN' FORAFIGHT gets the best post against a suspect bunch.
SPOT PLAYS
For Wednesday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Aqueduct (7th) Roll Tide Roll, 3-1
(8th) Bay of Plenty, 3-1
Charles Town (2nd) Go Go Romeo, 5-1
(8th) Charitable Carly, 7-2
Churchill Downs (1st) Conquest Bigluck E, 5-1
(10th) Otto's Dream, 7-2
Delta Downs (4th) Parkers Nite Out, 9-2
(9th) Boston Salt, 5-1
Finger Lakes (4th) Bold Mark, 6-1
(9th) Tactical Pal, 10-1
Gulfstream Park West (1st) Sky Guy, 8-1
(6th) Glace, 6-1
Hawthorne (1st) Warrior's Magic, 4-1
(9th) J Jett, 3-1
Mahoning Valley (2nd) Ten Cent Hat, 6-1
(8th) Pure Trust, 9-2
Mountaineer (2nd) Porter Central, 7-2
(7th) Hobnob Hill, 6-1
Penn National (3rd) Street Maven, 9-2
(8th) Blumin Sweetheart, 6-1
Remington Park (1st) Kelly Belly Kid, 7-2
(9th) Morongo, 4-1
Turf Paradise (4th) Bonita Sexy, 4-1
(6th) Red Globe, 3-1
Woodbine (5th) Bit's Lover Boy, 10-1
(7th) Spanish Brigadier, 8-1
For Wednesday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE
Aqueduct (7th) Roll Tide Roll, 3-1
(8th) Bay of Plenty, 3-1
Charles Town (2nd) Go Go Romeo, 5-1
(8th) Charitable Carly, 7-2
Churchill Downs (1st) Conquest Bigluck E, 5-1
(10th) Otto's Dream, 7-2
Delta Downs (4th) Parkers Nite Out, 9-2
(9th) Boston Salt, 5-1
Finger Lakes (4th) Bold Mark, 6-1
(9th) Tactical Pal, 10-1
Gulfstream Park West (1st) Sky Guy, 8-1
(6th) Glace, 6-1
Hawthorne (1st) Warrior's Magic, 4-1
(9th) J Jett, 3-1
Mahoning Valley (2nd) Ten Cent Hat, 6-1
(8th) Pure Trust, 9-2
Mountaineer (2nd) Porter Central, 7-2
(7th) Hobnob Hill, 6-1
Penn National (3rd) Street Maven, 9-2
(8th) Blumin Sweetheart, 6-1
Remington Park (1st) Kelly Belly Kid, 7-2
(9th) Morongo, 4-1
Turf Paradise (4th) Bonita Sexy, 4-1
(6th) Red Globe, 3-1
Woodbine (5th) Bit's Lover Boy, 10-1
(7th) Spanish Brigadier, 8-1
