Horse Racing 1-18-17

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At the Gate - Wednesday
By Mike Dempsey

Uncontested entered the picture for the Kentucky Derby (G1) with a good-looking win on Monday in the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn Park, picking up 10 points toward entry into the Run for the Roses.

The racing surface came up sloppy and under jockey Channing Hill the colt jumped out to uncontested (no pun intended) early lead and took the field gate to wire, returning $4.40 as the favorite.

Trained by Rom Moquette, the colt earned a 96 Beyer Speed Figure for his win and can still be had at a generous +8000 in early Derby wagering.

Next up for the colt will be the $500,000 Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn Park on Feb. 20, which is also a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race.

The last two slots for the $12 million Pegasus World Cup (G1) were filled on Monday and it looks as if we will have a full field of 12 shooting for the $7 million check for winning the world’s richest race.

The last two entrants are Prayer for Relief and Noble Bird, who both figure to be longshots.

As of right now the field is comprised of Arrogate, California Chrome, Keen Ice, Neolithic, Shaman Ghost, Eragon, War Story, War Envoy, Breaking Lucky, Ralis, Prayer for Relief and Noble Bird.

There is early betting available with California Chrome and Arrogate the co-favorites at even money. I think by the race, which will be run at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, Jan. 28, California Chrome will end up a slight favorite.


Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:

GP Race 1 Clm $30,000N2L (12:35 ET)
#4 Wild Good 5-2
#6 Call to Honor 8-1
#1 Opening Remark 6-1
#3 Game Lad 3-1

Analysis: Wild Good pressed the early pace, took over the lead and could not hold off the winner late in a runner up finish at this level in his first start off a 3 1/2 month break. The winner Grand Nene came back to beat $30,000 non-winners of three or three-year-olds in his next outing on Dec. 21 here. He owns a solid pace profile throughout and does not need to move forward much off his last effort to win in this spot.

Call to Honor tossed in a did last out against state bed Alw-1 optional claimers and catches an easier spot here. Three back he was a decent second against $50,000 claimers. Note Jaramillo is off our top pick and is reunited with this guy. Worth tossing in the mix if he goes off near his 8-1 morning line.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 1,3,4,6
TRI: 4,6 / 1,3,4,6 / 1,3,4,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 7 Clm $25,000 (3:32 ET)
#8 My Third Eye 6-1
#1 Nerve Line 6-1
#10 Grace Appeal 15-1
#9 Harambe 10-1

Analysis: My Third Eye returns off a three-month break for the Ward barn that is 23% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. The filly broke her maiden over the turf here at five furlongs last June in her second career start. She takes the blinkers off and drops into an easier spot here tagged for $25,000. She has been working sharply at Palm Meadows for her return.

Nerve Line was not a threat last out on poly versus Alw-1 optional claimers and returns to turf for just the second time. Her turf debut was a game second over yielding footing last summer at Woodbine. The blinkers go on and she drops into a good spot here.

Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 1,8 / 1,8,9,10
TRI: 1,8 / 1,8,9,10 / 1,2,8,9,10

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Gulfstream Park
R1: #6 Call to Honor 8-1
R6: #6 Ross J Dawg 8-1
R7: #10 Grace Appeal 15-1
R7: #9 Harambe 10-1
R8: #4 Hy Dandy 8-1
R9: #5 Island Therapy 8-1

Good luck today!
 
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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at The Meadows

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Post: 2:20 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 75 - Purse:$6600 - CLAIM $8000 W/A
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 2 MY WAY THE HIGHWAY 4/1
# 9 GJ PHOTO VICTORY 20/1
# 6 BOOZY SUZY 20/1

MY WAY THE HIGHWAY appears to be our best wagering option in this affair. The panel of smart guys saw this horse's name on a bumper sticker. Call it our coffee house play, worth a small bet. With a very good 77 speed fig last time out, will surely be a factor in this competition. The handicapping team has Palone on its list of drivers who are real tough within the recent past. Last 30 days win percent is outstanding. GJ PHOTO VICTORY - Should be in the hunt again in this event, looking to improve that already high lifetime winning clip. BOOZY SUZY - This mare getting the trip to the winner's circle wouldn't be impossible, a chance.
 
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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Monticello Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Post: 1:25 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 83 - Purse:$4700 - N/W $500 P/S L/5 OR P/S IN 2016 $7500 P/C L/S AE: N/W 11 PM LT AE: $12500 CLM W/A
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 1 LAKEVIEW TAMMY 9/2
# 2 THE B STREET FAN 5/2
# 5 DEB ON BROADWAY 12/1

Feel pretty confident putting some profits down on LAKEVIEW TAMMY. Can't overlook based on TrackMaster speed figs which have been outstanding (84 avg) recently. Enters this race with very good TrackMaster class ratings relative to the pack - take a good look. Performing soundly, achieved a substantial TrackMaster SR in her last race (74). THE B STREET FAN - The knowledge group will always toss in a nice horse from the 2 position here at Monticello Raceway, definitely worth a look. DEB ON BROADWAY - Monticello Raceway has been playing to this interesting entrant's running style, we're looking for a formidable effort.
 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $20900 Class Rating: 92

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE DECEMBER 18, 2016 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 18, 2016 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $10,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 2 SMOOTH SERVICE 6/1

# 7 SUPER FUND 3/1

# 3 TIGER BOURBON 7/2

My pick in this race is SMOOTH SERVICE. Is difficult not to look at based on speed figures which have been quite good - 88 avg - of late. Always good to invest in a trainer with this kind of very good win percentage - 17 percent - at this distance & surface. The Equibase Speed Fig of 90 from his last affair looks respectable in here. SUPER FUND - When this jock and trainer team up, players often make money. One of the most respectable win percentages between this rider and trainer make this gelding dangerous. TIGER BOURBON - Is hard not to consider given the company run in lately. Should come out strong - I have liked the way this gelding has moved sharply to the front end recently.
 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 85

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE NOVEMBER 18, 2016 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250 ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 11 CAT WITH A TWIST 5/1

# 1 EMMA LEA'S SONG 8/1

# 6 MAKE MONEY HONEY 7/2

CAT WITH A TWIST has a competitive shot to take this race. Has a sharp record at the distance and surface, which makes me give my vote to this mare. Has been running soundly lately and will almost certainly be on or close to the lead early on. Has posted reliable speed figs in turf route races in the past. EMMA LEA'S SONG - Difficult to pass on this mare with Lopez in the irons. This animal is at the top in this field in earnings per start at the distance/surface. MAKE MONEY HONEY - Must be considered here on the basis of the figures in the speed section alone. Has to be given a shot versus this group displaying very good figures lately and an average speed fig of 82 under similar conditions.
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Charles Town - Race #4 - Post: 8:24pm - Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 68

Rating:

#6 FANTASTICALLY (ML=3/1)


FANTASTICALLY - Already competed against today's M/L favorite on December 9th at Charles Town and finished ahead of that one. Have to believe she can do it again right here. You have to be keen on that recent race figure, 67, which is the top latest race speed rating of this field. This one has increased her speed ratings from a fig of 48 to 61 to 67 in succession.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 DUBAI HOT SAUCE (ML=2/1), #1 MAGGIE WAG (ML=5/2), #1A UNHINCHED (ML=5/2),

DUBAI HOT SAUCE - If she goes off close to the morning line odds of 2/1, I'll have to pass. MAGGIE WAG - Hard to wager on any horse to turn things around if there is no reward to taking the chance. UNHINCHED - This mare is always hitting the board, but just doesn't get the job done. Hard to bet on her on the top end.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#6 FANTASTICALLY to win at post-time odds of 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Gulfstream Park - Race #9 - Post: 4:32pm - Starter Allowance - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $36,000 Class Rating: 100

Rating:

#8 CONTRADICT (ML=6/1)
#5 ISLAND THERAPY (ML=8/1)


CONTRADICT - Using this jockey/trainer combination is a good decision. The rest of the field may trail this horse all the way around the track. In this race here, this racer has clearly shown signs that he likes the grass. His speed ratings are the highest in the field for this distance and surface. Finished fourth at Aqueduct last out. Was close at the end and at odds of 6/1 today, he looks like a possible contender. ISLAND THERAPY - This jock/trainer duo has been producing a high win percentage, right around 30. I seem to always make money betting Servis horses on the grass. That barn has a dominant win pct for this distance/surface. Had a powerful closing move in the last race, running the last quarter in less than 25 seconds. A similar race today, and it's straight to the winner's circle.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 GALLEON MAST (ML=5/2), #3 BLUE HARBOR (ML=7/2), #6 MYSTIC SKY (ML=9/2),

GALLEON MAST - This come from behinder will probably be rolling fast from far back much too late to make an impression in this race. BLUE HARBOR - This gelding ran his best Equibase speed figure in some time on the turf in a route race. There may be a strong performance bounce today. MYSTIC SKY - Will probably be left with too much to do in the stretch.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #8 CONTRADICT to win if you can get odds of 3/2 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [5,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

8 with 5 with [1,4,9] Total Cost: $3

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:

[5,8] with [5,8] with [1,4,7,9] with [1,4,7,9] with [1,4,7,9] Total Cost: $48
 
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Northfield: Wednesday 1/18 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF

Race 8 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet: SKYWAY COBRA (1st)

Spot Play: BEAUTY CHIP (11th)


Race 1

(3) SKYWAY COBRA gelding made breaks last week but will win for fun if he stays trotting. (7) MORELAND FLASHBACK raced better than what the line indicates last start; use underneath. (4) JAMES KENNY was game in the qualifier but would need more to get past the top choice.

Race 2

(2) L R FLYING AMMO will look to make it two straight at this level. (7) ADIOS AMIGOS four-year-old gelding has his work cut out for him from the outside. The pacer is one of few threats in the race. (3) THESHAKRSBACKNTOWN has room to improve second start back off the layoff.

Race 3

(2) HELLO CARLO thirteen-year-old takes a huge drop down in class. (1) BOUNTY gets the best post with a huge driver change. (3) HOUSE MONEY has room to improve for the top trainer.

Race 4

(3) TWINKLE LIKE ASTAR folded badly last start against tougher. The 5-year-old should find this spot much more to his liking. (5) ABERARDER MAX has been pacing faster than most of the field and looks to offer a nice price. (4) GRANDPA DON well bred pacer just missed last start at this level.

Race 5

In a very tough race to gauge, (4) CALLIT AS U SEEIT is inconsistent but a good effort makes him one of the horses to beat. (9) CABO mare doesn't win often but should be in the mix. (7) REALLY REALY SWEET might be able to get a piece underneath with a good setup.

Race 6

In the weakest field on the card, (2) MASTER JEEVES is one of few in the race that has been competitive at this level. (6) LYNARD shows a win against better a few weeks back. (9) MOVECLOSERAGAIN just missed against similar two back.

Race 7

(1) MARGARITA MAN owns lots of back class and will be much closer turning for home this week. (3) CROWNED WITH GLORY is one of the faster trotters in the race but gets sent out for a low percentage pilot. (9) FORT COMMANDER benefits from the top driver but needs racing luck.

Race 8

(2) GRANTLAND takes a significant drop in class and also picks up the top driver. (5) ACTION METRO MAX fits in with this bunch nicely with a smooth trip. (9) TRUE TO MACH former Northfield horse of the year was sharp last start but faces slightly tougher.

Race 9

(5) OH PLEASE trotting mare will look to make it two straight against tougher. The 5-year-old will offer a big price. (1) SOULFUL DELIGHT burned cash last week at this level; command a price. (9) NAFLIA circled the field last week off slow fractions.

Race 10

(2) GUISEPPE MOLLUSCA didn't miss by much last out at this level. (5) RECKLESS REBEL has been competitive against better in recent; threat. (9) SHAGUAR is just now back in racing shape and can go much faster.

Race 11

(2) BEAUTY CHIP picks up the top driver in a weak and inconsistent field. (9) SAM HAS CLASS will look to drop and pop. The 11-year-old will be used aggressively for a top driver. (1) PARNELL raced gamely last week down in class.

Race 12

In another weak field, (7) HIGH AND TIGHT is one of the few droppers in the race and made the most money in the field last year. (6) STRUNG OUT picks up a big driver change and was very close two back. (3) CAMCUN gets sent out for a provisional pilot; use underneath.

Race 13

(4) BAD BUG came up empty from the rail last start. The pacer was much better the start prior and picks back up a top driver. (1) I AM WILL beat a much weaker bunch last start; threat. (9) SOUTHWIND JOKER will offer a monster price and can hit the board with a good setup.

Race 14

(6) LIMA LUCKY needed the start last week and has room to improve against softer. (1) VAYA CON DIOS picks up the top driver with the best post. (7) CALLING A VICTORY would normally look more attractive at this level but has just been racing evenly.

Race 15

In a wide open race, (3) LIGHTNINGINTHESKY shows a few good efforts against slightly better and will offer a big price. (4) HANGON MAN has been competitive at this level; threat. (1) SILVERHILL DELIGHT gets the best post in a weak and inconsistent field.

Race 16

(9) HA HA gets sent out for capable connections against a suspect bunch. (6) CHEYENNE OXE looks to be in line for a much easier trip this week down in class. (2) TIDEWATER TOMCAT shows some competitive miles against better; threat.
 
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Spot Plays

For Wednesday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Charles Town (3rd) Pistolinmypocket, 7-2
(6th) Just Trey, 6-1


Delta Downs (1st) Malila, 5-1
(6th) Private Songster, 7-2


Gulfstream Park (3rd) Starship Tribbles, 3-1
(10th) Budding, 6-1


Mahoning Valley (6th) Rankhasprivileges, 7-2
(7th) Honest Desire, 3-1


Penn National (2nd) Hadeea, 3-1
(5th) Galadriel Lady, 5-1


Tampa Bay Downs (5th) I’m a Catman, 9-2
(9th) Glitzy, 6-1


Turf Paradise (4th) Tribal Zen, 5-1
(5th) Bam Party, 3-1


Turfway Park (4th) Weekend in Malibu, 7-2
(5th) Truly Trudy, 4-1
 

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