Homedawg's Tuesday Plays 9-5. +9.20

[homedawg]

Monday: 2-1. +2.70
Overall: 9-5. +9.20

4 Units

Indiana St/N. Illinois Under 133.5

Not sure where they came up with this number, but it is off by about 12 points. There is not much firepower on the floor, if any. With the departure of Marico Stinson, and Harry Marshall not being eligible for the 1st semester the Sycamores severely lack any consistent scoring. That was a huge blow looking for a team to possibly contend in the Valley. I expect points to be few and far between in this one. With no Stinson there is no player that has even averaged more than 10/ppg in their career on the floor. Patton will have the Huskies playing hard on the defensive end since that will be their only chances of being competitive. This team has no outside shooting, and not much of any scoring on the floor. The one thing Patton does insist from his players is that they play hard. I expect this game to be played in the 50's and will be shocked if it comes close to the set number.


Will be back with a few other total plays and a preview of the SU - Richmond game. BOL

 

[roxymusic]

Stuck out like a sore thumb, I hit it hard

 

[homedawg]

Stuck out like a sore thumb, I hit it hard

again another line that i almost fell out of my chair when I saw. No idea where this is coming from? No scoring at all.

 

[MikeyLo]

BOL homedawg!

 

[homedawg]

3 Units

Oklahoma -3 -110

Think this line is a total slap in the face of OU. A consensus top 7 pick, playing at home, against a team from the Southern Conference should not only be laying 3 points at HOME. I know Curry is an all-american, and an absolute cold hearted assassin, but his team is not on the same level as last season. The importance of losing point guard Jason Richards will show itself tonight. Curry is a shooting guard at heart, and asking him to play the point will hurt this team in the long run. For Davidson to win, he needs to take an insane amount of shots. Needing your point guard to take as many as 2 times as many shots as the rest of your starts will totally disrupt the flow of the offense. However even more disturbing may be the defensive inefficiencies this team has. They gave up 83 points to a team named Guilford, and showed last year that they struggled to get stops against teams that have any resemblance of an offense.
Oklahoma on the other hand is loaded. To go along with all-american Blake Griffin they brought in a top rated recruiting class, highlighted by McDonald's all-american Willie Warren. I expect Oklahoma to simply out talent Davidson. While Davidson may have arguably the best (Griffin would have something to say about that) player on the court, they simply don't have the depth to compete 40 minutes against a top 5 team on their home court. The Griffin brothers are too physical and should dominate the inside. They are superior athletes, and have the size to give Davidson all sorts of problems on the glass. Capel's teams stress defense, and I expect Austin Johnson to forget about offense this game and make Curry work for ever shot he takes.
Davidson competed against elite teams last season, but if you recall during the regular season they were unable to beat any of them. 3 points is simply not enough. Davidson should be able to dominate their conference, but the importance of Jason Richards to this team will show tonight. Sooners by 10.

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

wut book u get the totals @this early?...thanx

 

[homedawg]

3 Units

Santa Clara/Florida Atl Under 130

Another game where I think the total is way to high. Both Mike Jarvis, and Kerry Keating stress defense. Santa Clara led the West Coast Conference is scoring defense last season, allowing only 61.4 points a game. It was more of the same last night where they allowed high scoring UAB to 64 points. They run a patient offense where they focusing on feeding big man John Bryant, and play hard nosed in your face defense.
When Mike Jarvis took over the Fla Atl program the first thing he said was in order to elevate this team to the top of the conference they must improve their defense. They have the talent to score on this team, but the defense was something that needed work. Therefore rest assured you will see a much more concentrated defensive effort.
This game has all the making of a game that will be played in the 50's. Both teams want to focus on defense. Santa Clara wants to slow the game down, and feed their big man, while at the same time slowing down a talented Owl's offense. You don't have to worry about the Bronco's getting out and running, and Keating has the unique ability of controlling tempo. I'm expecting a game in the 50'.

 

[HighFlyinKilla]

The Greek has them up. Some of those pussy books will probaly wait for the lines to adjust like the Central Mich game yesterday.

 

[homedawg]

wut book u get the totals @this early?...thanx

cris, thegreek

 

[homedawg]

Summary

4 Units
Indiana St/N. Illinois Under 133.5 -110

3 Units
Oklahoma -3 -110
Santa Clara/Florida Atl Under 130 -110


My leans have been hitting at a very high rate so I will be posting some of them for 1 unit each. Both games I am looking at (Syracuse/Rich Over, and Clev St/Wash Under) are both moving in my direction so I am going to hold off for a better number.


**Note** All 1 unit plays, win or lose, will not be counted as a win or lose, just unit value.

BOL:toast:

 

[XYZ_ABC]

Thanks Homedawg. I know you put in a lot of time and effort into your plays and it definitely shows. Cheers.

Whenever you're in the Boston area let me know. Dinner on me!!

 

[homedawg]

There is also going to be a play on the...

Cleveland St/Washington Under

I am very confused on the movement on this game. It opened at 134.5 and is already at 139.5. I will monitor the line movement very closely and try to hit the under at its appex. I was ready to play at 134.5 so I will gladly take the extra 5 points. The game will now most likely be a 2 units play.
Cleveland St wins basketball ball games with defense. It is something Gary Waters stresses, and he has the talent for them to respond. Last year the Vikings led the Horizon in scoring defense, allowing only 63.4 ppg, as well as 3 point % def 32.3%. They have arguably the 2 best players in the Horizon in J'Nathan Bullock, and point guard Cedrick Jackson. Jackson will be very important tonight against Washington since Romar likes to pressure the point guard. Jackson has the ability to beat the pressure and in turn control the tempo of the game. Cleveland St can't get in a shootout with Washington, therefor controlling tempo will be the key to the game.
The way I see it Cleveland St plays well enough defense to slow down the WU offense, but at the same time they aren't going to go out and put 70+ on the board. I see a game in the low 60's. I will make it official and post later if this is a play (almost certain it will be)

 

[homedawg]

Thanks Homedawg. I know you put in a lot of time and effort into your plays and it definitely shows. Cheers.

Whenever you're in the Boston area let me know. Dinner on me!!

Thanks my man I really appreciate the offer. I have a few real goods from West Boston. BOL this evening/:toast:

 

[CUSE15]

home dawg how do u deposit into the greek?

 

[G.MONEY]

Best of luck today!

 

[bobano]

3 Units

Santa Clara/Florida Atl Under 130

Another game where I think the total is way to high. Both Mike Jarvis, and Kerry Keating stress defense. Santa Clara led the West Coast Conference is scoring defense last season, allowing only 61.4 points a game. It was more of the same last night where they allowed high scoring UAB to 64 points. They run a patient offense where they focusing on feeding big man John Bryant, and play hard nosed in your face defense.
When Mike Jarvis took over the Fla Atl program the first thing he said was in order to elevate this team to the top of the conference they must improve their defense. They have the talent to score on this team, but the defense was something that needed work. Therefore rest assured you will see a much more concentrated defensive effort.
This game has all the making of a game that will be played in the 50's. Both teams want to focus on defense. Santa Clara wants to slow the game down, and feed their big man, while at the same time slowing down a talented Owl's offense. You don't have to worry about the Bronco's getting out and running, and Keating has the unique ability of controlling tempo. I'm expecting a game in the 50'.

Homedawg, I was wondering why the total on my sportsbook says 145 for Florida Atlantic vs. Santa Clara? Is that an error? Cause I noticed u posted your play with it as 130.

 

[professional_capper]

Mike Jarvis stresses defense...lol. I guess you didn't him when he was at GW.

 

[homedawg]

home dawg how do u deposit into the greek?

i used my netspend all access visa credit card.


you going to the game tonight???

 

[homedawg]

Mike Jarvis stresses defense...lol. I guess you didn't him when he was at GW.

he made it a point to say he was going to this season.

 

[homedawg]

Homedawg, I was wondering why the total on my sportsbook says 145 for Florida Atlantic vs. Santa Clara? Is that an error? Cause I noticed u posted your play with it as 130.

not quite sure about that one. all books who have released totals so far have the total set between 128.5 - 140