Homedawg's Thursday Plays

[homedawg]

Wednesday: 4-2. +3.40
Overall: 68-56 (54.83%) +1.00


Seemed like yesterday should have been a little better than it actually was, but I still accomplished my goal by putting together back to back solid days while getting myself back in the positives. I have several leans for tomorrow that I need to work on, but wanted to get this one out there for now.

2 Units

No. Colorado +6 -110

People will look and see Fresno and No Colorado and think Fresno automatically. Thing is No Colorado may actually have the better team this year. Will get more into this tomorrow.

 

[Heel_Yes]

I love the over in the UNC/Evansville game.....my book does not have it open yet, but I think it is around 130

UNC will score 80-90 easily......you have to figure evansville will get 40-50, maybe more

I see this game being close to 90-60 victory for the Heels

Take the over....

 

[homedawg]

trust me if the total is at 130 i will have the largest wager of my life

 

[Heel_Yes]

any books have the lines open yet?

sportsinteraction is showing 130, but it is not open to bet on yet

I am sure it will change once the lines open

 

[Heel_Yes]

going to win my new orleans hornets bet! wow...after they played like crap all game

 

[Basket Case]

trust me if the total is at 130 i will have the largest wager of my life

Wow!

How many units? I may dump the majority of my account on it if you think OVER 130 is a certifiable __ __ __ __! Word starts with "l" and ends in "k!" Don't want to get flamed for saying it! :lolBIG:

 

[SpaceChimp]

What is your thoughts on Niagara @ Drexel. I'm having a really tough time with this one. Drexel lost to 3 good teams and not by much either. Meanwhile Niagara hasn't beaten anybody.

Both teams are awesome ats Niagara 8-1, Drexel 4-1. Niagara is shooting much better %'s, but against much lower competition. I feel like Niagaras stats are inflated due to ease of schedule.

I don't really know much about these teams other than these stats. Any insight on the players - caching etc for me on this one?

 

[dxn0401]

The 130 is the default total on sportsinteraction.com. All tomorrows games are listed at 130 and will be until a few hours until tip.

 

[Dr.T]

I love the over in the UNC/Evansville game.....my book does not have it open yet, but I think it is around 130

UNC will score 80-90 easily......you have to figure evansville will get 40-50, maybe more

I see this game being close to 90-60 victory for the Heels

Take the over....

Wow, this line will not be anywhere close to 130. UNC's home totals have been in the range of 162, 159.5 and 154 so you can expect somthing above 154 since Tyler H. did not play in the first 3 home games and the last one ended with 184 points scored. The game vs. UNC-Asheville didn't have a total but they scored 164 points.

No offense, but maybe you shouldn't be betting on the games. Just watch them and save your cash.

 

[Basket Case]

Wow, this line will not be anywhere close to 130. UNC's home totals have been in the range of 162, 159.5 and 154 so you can expect somthing above 154 since Tyler H. did not play in the first 3 home games and the last one ended with 184 points scored. The game vs. UNC-Asheville didn't have a total but they scored 164 points.

No offense, but maybe you shouldn't be betting on the games. Just watch them and save your cash.

hno:

 

[GimmeDattt]

Over 130 would be the biggest mistake line of our lifetimes. Realistically we are looking at a total of 155 which would probably STILL go over because UNC can score on command.

Line for game is too high though.

 

[Dolphins950]

Homedawg what do you like about N. Col. They have not played well at all on the road and Fresno has played very good ball at home. They haven't won every game but been in it against decent opponents. What do you know about N. Col. that I am missing?

 

[OTK]

The 130 is the default total on sportsinteraction.com. All tomorrows games are listed at 130 and will be until a few hours until tip.

Exactly, no shot on this line being at 130. I'd be shocked to see anything under 153.

 

[lawnboy19]

i saw -30, but no total

 

[GreenValley]

North Carolina Total

Just browsing the forum and thought I'd offer this:

There are a couple of sights out there that compute projected totals for games the next day.

FYI.....one projected 148 and the other 160.

The actual number tomorrow should be in that area.


BOL,
Green Valley

 

[homedawg]

What is your thoughts on Niagara @ Drexel. I'm having a really tough time with this one. Drexel lost to 3 good teams and not by much either. Meanwhile Niagara hasn't beaten anybody.

Both teams are awesome ats Niagara 8-1, Drexel 4-1. Niagara is shooting much better %'s, but against much lower competition. I feel like Niagaras stats are inflated due to ease of schedule.

I don't really know much about these teams other than these stats. Any insight on the players - caching etc for me on this one?

this is one of the games i am working on. i will get back to this

 

[jbragg10]

trust me if the total is at 130 i will have the largest wager of my life

I agree with this statement.
130 would be way too low.

North Carolina will score mid 80's and I expect Evansville to score in the mid 60's. This game will be in the upper 140's easily.

 

[homedawg]

I agree with this statement.
130 would be way too low.

North Carolina will score mid 80's and I expect Evansville to score in the mid 60's. This game will be in the upper 140's easily.

btw i was never expecting this total to be anywhere close to 130, hence the largest wager of my life. it would be nice though

 

[homedawg]

3 Units

UL Lafayette -2.5 -110

2 Units

So Alabama -3.5 -110

 

[homedawg]

UL Lafayette -2.5

Lafayette's slow start to the season may be showing up in this low number. The Rajun Cajuns had some losses to start the season, but that was without some of their best players. Now that they are back at full strength they have been on a tear winning 4 of their last 5, including their last 2 by 20+ in both games. With the added depth they have 9 players who have gotten at least double digit minutes the past 2 games. The experience gained during the absence of Gardnigo, Robinson, and Adeife should effect the team positively in the long run. I think it would be easy to say the ULL would have a better record if they weren't missing arguably their 2 best players in Lamar Roberson, and all league performer Chris Gardnigo. Since their return the 6'8 Roberson has averaged 11.5ppg and the 6'6 Gardnio 11.0ppg. Also with Gardnigo you get back one of the best 3 point shooters in the country as he shot 44.1% last season from 3. More size was also added to the Rajun Cajun roster as another UNLV transfer, 6'10 Emannule Adeife is now also eligible. It gives the Cajuns even more rebounding, and additional size. With the addition of all the new bodies a could UL Lafayette weakness, rebounding, and fg%, have turned into strengths. The Rajun Cajun roster at full strength has shown why they were picked to win the league. They should be able to take care of a North Texas team that can't match up with their size and depth. UL Lafayette guards the 3 point line very well (31.6%), which should impact one of N Texas strengths. It also doesn't hurt that ULL is 9-1 all time against the Mean Green in the Cajun Dome, along with 95-32 all time in conference play against the Sun Belt. Last season ULL won 62-57 at home, and should have the same results tonight