Homedawg's Sunday Plays 109-95 (53.43%) +14.10

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Dynasty
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Saturday: 3-7. -11.80
Overall: 109-95. +14.10


Brutal day on here. Thought I had played the parlay i played, but posted Akron instead on Bradley. Luckily get right back after it Sunday

3 Units

Michigan -1.5 -110
So Illinois -3.5 -110
 

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Let's hit the early ones and everything will fall in place.
 

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Houston
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i agree its interesting. im all over evans right now. -3.5 for me. thoughts? am i missing something
 

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I lean Indiana St in their match up with Evansville. While I am very high on thisEvansville team they have yet to prove they can win on the road. In their last outing they had the biggest game yet this year, and they laid a complete egg against Illinois St, getting drubbed by 30. I have said it all year this is a team that you should back only at home until they prove they can win on the road. They have yet to do anything to show they can win away from home this season. Part of the reason they struggle so much is they are primarily a shooting team. Obviously you shoot at a much higher %at your home court, and is reasons for their road struggles. Indiana St on the hand is a team that is extremely inconsistent. The air was let out of their balloon before the season even started when they lost they star Marcio Stinson. THe Sycamores, not the Aces, were thought by many to be the sleeper in the valley. Loosing him was a huge blow to this team. They haven't really responded and have been struggling through the season. They do have some talent with Rasheed Carr, and Henry Marshall. They are usually very good at the Hulman Center and would not bet against them in this spot. They aren't athletically over matched against Evansville, so they should give them a good game. Evansville hasn't done anything to show that they should be laying any sort of points on the road to anyone. I think if there is a play on this game it is on Indiana St
 

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Just interested to hear some analysis on your So Illinois pick. I have to say they seem out of it this year. They have no good wins and just roll over to teams that play hard against them. Drake has impressed many this year, including me. They got the job done against Iowa and Iowa St which is no easy task for a MVC team.

Gl though, will be rooting for you.
 

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^figured that was about it, know Evansville hasn't been a good road team for some time and Indy St usually defends the home court well. Thanks for the writeup...good luck today - hope you get some from yesterday back.
 

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So Illinois -3.5

This game has a lot to do with feeling and not much to do with statistics. However you can't deny the importance of the Saluki's playing in Carbondale. It is what it is, a great home court advantage, no matter how bad the team is. Although this team isn't playing up to par, it has something last year's team didn't....talent. Last year when the Saluki's were losing it looked hopeless....well cause it was. At least this season they have some talent with freshman Kevin Dillard, and Anthony Booker. Dillard has for the most part lived up to the hype, Booker hasn't. But still there is potential there. Carlton Fay has also stepped up this season to be a legit scorer. He has averaged double figures and for all accounts has been there go to scorer. Now back to the home court advantage. Drake always struggles away from home. They shoot only 38% on the road, which is horrible, and should run into some trouble against a So Ill defense that isn't putting up the numbers it used to, but still consitently gets the effort. Defense for the most part is effort so if they play hard, and draw off of the fans, the defense should step it up a notch in league play. Drake doesn't seem all right either. They really don't have any good wins on the season. They beat New Mexico on a neutral court, but lost to Vanderbilt in that same tournament. They also got drubbed at Evasville in league play their first time on the road. This is a team that struggles to get road wins even when they are good. They haven't won in Carbondale since 1996 and don't see that starting tonight.
 

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honestly think illinois is the better team but i dont like them in this spot gl on the game, like southern illinois too
 

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Michigan -1.5

Even when Michigan has been down the past 2 years they have found ways to win at home the last 2 seasons against the Illini as 2 point dogs. Should be the same today. Michigan has bought into Belein's system and have turned things around this year. They also got a huge boost when Laval Lucas-Perry became eligible for the 2nd semester. That gives Michigan a true 3rd scorer to go along with Sims, and Manny Harris. Lucas-Perry is a good 3 point shooter and fits well into Belein's system. They had a tough game out against a Wisconsin team that came out on fire making their 3's. If you can make your 3's if makes Michigan's 1-3-1 defense look bad. However against teams that can't shoot well it will have the opposite effect. Illinois only takes 15 threes a game so they aren't going to be looking to out shoot the 1-3-1. A lot of times that defense forces teams to settle for 3's, and if they can get the Illini to settle for something they aren't accustomed to it should benefit the Wolverines. On the offensive end Harris is going to be on a mission after getting slowed down by Wisconsin. He hasn't had back to back bad games all year, and really has only had 2 bad games on the season. Michigan has added shooters that fit into their system to go along with Harris, and Sims and each freshman is looking more and more confident by each game that goes by. Now with addition of Laval-perry it gives the Wolverines the advantage offensively. They also don't give away points on the free throw line, knocking down over 78%. Illinois has improved on the line, but don't get there that often. Michigan's zone defense will be the key. If they can get the Illini to settle for the 3, like I think they can Michigan should protect home court rather easily
 

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3 Units

Indiana St +3 -110

After reading more into it and thinking about it I think this is the right play. Indiana St has been making improvements in their problem area's. In their first 2 games they cut their rebounding deficiency from -4.5 to -3, and cut their turnovers from 15 to 13. Also Evansville won't overwhelm them athletically, which should give the Sycamores the ability to neutralize the glass. Henry Marshall is a big time defender and will almost certainly guard Shy Ely. With Marshall slowing down Ely, and the frontline being able to rebound I don't see how Indiana St doesn't win this one at the Hulman Center. They have won their 3 of the last 4 seasons including a 30 point beat down last year.
 

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2 Units

Arizona +3.5 -110

Arizona St exposed one of Stanford's weaknesses last game in their 30 point drubbing. With only 6'8 center Josh Owens the Cardinal figured to struggle covering dominant big men. Until they met AZ ST they really haven't ran into such a big man. But against the Sun Devils Pendegraph showed just why that concern was there. He went off against a terrible Stanford post defense. I expect that go again be the key in Arizona covering this one. jordan Hill imo is better than Pendegraph, and he should have an absolute field day. Also the emergence of Jamelle Horne has a legit 4th scoring option has taken some of the load off of the big 3, Hill, Budinger, and Wise. Him stepping up has come at the right time as Budinger has been in a miny slump. Budinger is an all american though and i expect him to shoot his way out of it. When he goes off I don't want to be the team that is going up against him because he can single handily dominant a game. Still even if Budinger is struggling Hill dominance down low should be enough to give the Cats a victory.
 

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Homedawg, you think MIchigan is still a play at -3? What do you think of the O/U at 130, leaning under.
 

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I think Michingan wins by close to double figures so yes. Hate losing out on value, but yes. I lean under as well, but just seems to fishy
 

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fuck it pulled the trigger got Michigan -2.5 and under 130
Hope we all cash out, let's go WOlverines!
 

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Stanford struggled against John Bryant too when they played Santa Clara.

Landry Fields will probably cover Budinger and he did a great job on Harden on Friday.

Anthony Goods and Fields and Johnson won't go 2-20 on 3 pointers tonight.

I see a very high scoring game decided in the last minute.
 

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