Holy Cross/St. Joes All Over Again

ProRef'sPicks · Mar 22, 2005

Last night the vast majority of players said to play St. Joe's. Almost all the services liked St. Joe's. The line went down from -6 to -5 1/2 to finally settling at -5 just before tip-off. I was all set to take Holy Cross and the points, but the line kept dropping in spite of everyone loving St. Joe's. Why? Tonight is more of the same. Many more like CS Fullerton than not and yet the line on Georgetown contiues to go up from starting at -8 to now at -10. Three to one bettors and services are on UNLV and yet the line has gone from USC -5 1/2 to -6 1/2. I ask you again.....WHY? Looks like CS Fullerton and USC may be the big plays tonight!

THawk+ · Mar 22, 2005

Because the "smart" money is on Georgetown and S. Carolina...

Last night the "smart" money was on Holy Cross...

When I say smart money it relates to who the books respect when they lay the money down, does not mean it is a winner just what is happening.....

t3a · Mar 22, 2005

Pro Ref's Picks said:
Tonight is more of the same. Many more like CS Fullerton than not and yet the line on Georgetown contiues to go up from starting at -8 to now at -10. Three to one bettors and services are on UNLV and yet the line has gone from USC -5 1/2 to -6 1/2. I ask you again.....WHY? Looks like CS Fullerton and USC may be the big plays tonight!

I think you have a typo there, if you follow what 'bettors and services' are playing, CSFullerton and UNLV would be your plays

A couple problems with that though, how do you gauge something like "3 to 1 bettors' are playing. You can get snapshots from certain places, but there is no way to know when there are thousands of books around.
Also, it should raise a red flag for you if you think all the action is one side but the line is moving against it. It would not be unheard of that books are trying to make a side they don't like even more attractive.

Another thing you might consider is if you see a a lot of 'services' on one side, unless you know their history is good (unlikely) , that may be something you would want to bet against

ProRef'sPicks · Mar 22, 2005

First, there was no typo. Second, I ALWAYS bet, if I'm playing a game, opposite of services. If the vast majority of services are on a play I like, I either switch or lay off. I don't have 10k in my account 'cause I play with services. I did not say that I could account for all money being bet...that's just stupid...what I was saying was that it is somewhat unusual that the majority of services and players (public) were on a particular team (St. Joe's) and the line goes down. In those cases, it usually tells me that big money is on the other side which accounts for the line move. I'm not smart enough to know when "books are trying to make a side they don't like even more attractive", and please don't be offended, but I don't think that you are either. I base my plays on funny line moves, against the public most of the time, and certainly not on teams where all the touts and services are salivating over. It took losing a lot of money over years to figure that out. I think I consider the obvious when you look at my betting record.

<TABLE class=HeaderLastCurrent cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width=770 border=1><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=65>03/20 Sun</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=40>33460079</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=120>Win NC State Wolfpack +4½</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 width=40> </TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>0.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=60>0.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>500.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction3 align=right width=60>8,640.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>8,322.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=60>318.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=145> </TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=65>03/20 Sun</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=40>33460081</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=120>Lose Iowa State Cyclones +15</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 width=40> </TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>0.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=60>0.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>-550.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction3 align=right width=60>8,090.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>7,772.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=60>318.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=145> </TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=65>03/20 Sun</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=40>33460083</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=120>Win Villanova Wildcats +1</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 width=40> </TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>0.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=60>0.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>500.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction3 align=right width=60>8,590.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>8,272.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=60>318.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=145> </TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=65>03/20 Sun</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=40>33460212</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=120>Win SO Illinois Salukis +8½</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 width=40> </TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>0.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=60>0.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>500.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction3 align=right width=60>9,090.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>8,772.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=60>318.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=145> </TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=65>03/20 Sun</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=40>33460080</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=120>Lose Vermont Catamounts +7½</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 width=40> </TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>0.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=60>0.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>-550.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction3 align=right width=60>8,540.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>8,222.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=60>318.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=145> </TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=65>03/20 Sun</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=40>33460213</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=120>Lose Bucknell Bison +8</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 width=40> </TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>0.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=60>0.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>-550.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction3 align=right width=60>7,990.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>7,672.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=60>318.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=145> </TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=65>03/20 Sun</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=40>33460082</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=120>Push Mississippi State Bulldogs +8</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 width=40> </TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>0.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=60>0.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>0.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction3 align=right width=60>7,990.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>7,672.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=60>318.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=145> </TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=65>03/20 Sun</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=40>33460211</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=120>Lose Mississippi State Bulldogs Over +144½</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 width=40> </TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>0.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=60>0.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>-550.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction3 align=right width=60>7,440.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>7,122.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=60>318.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=145> </TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=65>03/20 Sun</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=40>33477745</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=120>Win Seattle Supersonics -1½</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 width=40> </TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>0.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=60>0.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>1,000.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction3 align=right width=60>8,440.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>8,122.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 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class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>0.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=60>0.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>500.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction3 align=right width=60>8,940.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>8,622.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=60>318.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=145> </TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=65>03/21 Mon</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=40>33483542</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=120>Win TCU Horned Frogs +7½</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 width=40> </TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>0.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=60>0.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>500.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction3 align=right width=60>9,440.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>9,122.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right 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align=right width=60>318.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=145> </TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=65>03/21 Mon</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=40>33484287</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=120>Win Holy Cross Crusaders Over +65</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 width=40> </TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>0.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=60>0.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>500.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction3 align=right width=60>9,340.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>9,022.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=60>318.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=145> </TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=65>03/21 Mon</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=40>33484323</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=120>Win TCU Horned Frogs Over +74½</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 width=40> </TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>0.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=60>0.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>500.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction3 align=right width=60>9,840.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>9,522.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=60>318.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=145> </TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=65>03/21 Mon</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=40>33484505</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=120>Win Wichita State Shockers +7½</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 width=40> </TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>0.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=60>0.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>500.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction3 align=right width=60>10,340.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>10,022.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=60>318.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=145> </TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=65>03/22 Tue</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=40>33492735</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=120>Lose CS Fullerton +3</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 width=40> </TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>0.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=60>0.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>-220.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction3 align=right width=60>10,120.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>9,802.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=60>318.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=145> </TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=65>03/22 Tue</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=40>33492736</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=120>Win Georgetown Hoyas Under +71½</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 width=40> </TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>0.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=60>0.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>200.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction3 align=right width=60>10,320.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>10,002.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=60>318.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=145> </TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=65>03/22 Tue</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=40>33494921</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 width=120>Win UNLV Rebels +1</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 width=40> </TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>0.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right width=60>0.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>300.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction3 align=right width=60>10,620.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction2 align=right width=60>10,302.00</TD><TD class=BettorTransaction4 align=right 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Kruser6 · Mar 23, 2005

Hey Ref, Can I borrow $10

t3a · Mar 23, 2005

Pro Ref's Picks said:
Three to one bettors and services are on UNLV and yet the line has gone from USC -5 1/2 to -6 1/2. I ask you again.....WHY? Looks like CS Fullerton and USC may be the big plays tonight!

ok there was no typo - you ALWAYS play opposite but listed Fullerton?

That was the only reason I commented, wasn't sure if you were asking a question or trying to say services were on the wrong side of the line move or something else, that is why I said some things you might consider

ProRef'sPicks · Mar 23, 2005

I was really only trying to say that I thought the line moves in the past two nights had been rather strange to me. I was wondering if anyone else had the same thought. It's been tough the last two nights getting a read on the best play. I feel fortunate to have made a few bucks. I still need all the help I can get which is why I was asking the question. I appreciate your reply...guess I felt like I came accross as dumb after reading your post which is never a good feeling, however, based on some of my dumb plays in the past, I can sure see how someone would offer some relevent observations.

Good luck to you!

Kruser....the $10 bucks is yours if you can help me out with last year's losses!