Hitting 55%

[angusr]

A newbie here with a newbie question . . . is there really anybody out there who can consistently hit 55% with their picks? This seems to be a number some people throw around as being a realistic target and yet, having gone through some number crunching, it seems that anybody who could do this on a consistent basis could be pretty much raking it in. I mean, they could get a 50% return on their money within a year fairly easily. That's huge and seems so unrealistic that there must be very few people who can actually do this. I'm at around a 48% success rate myself. Hoping to hit 50% soon. . .

 

[jgerson]

I think some posters have some nice stretches from time to time. Check out SmokeyWins as he had been the best in football this year in my opinion. Dr. Death also does a nice job. Good luck getting to 50%!

 

[sickgambler]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Angus Ontario:
is there really anybody out there who can consistently hit 55% with their picks? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Very very tough to do Angus. The ONLY way anyone has a chance at hitting 55% over 3000+ games is if he is playing into weak books who have a lot of off numbers hanging. You must play into a book with opinionated lines, or you won't hit 55%. You have to get the better of the number of every game you play. If you play into a book with painted numbers only and you are not beating any books to the number, then you have ZERO chance of hitting 55% or better.

Yes, you can hit 55% to even 60% over a small sample of 300-800 games, but over 3000 plus games, it cannot be done. NO WAY JOSE..

 

[hanover00]

I don't know how many do it, but I personally know two guys who live in Vegas who have been hitting 55-57% over many years. Between bases, baskets and football they play over 1500 times per year. What they do is make their own lines early, very early. They are among the first to play every game. Usually they see the lines move in their direction by game time. So, by game time they have a 1 point or 1 1/2 advantage over everyone else. The only thing they complain about is that they can't put really big money on anything early . Books will change the lines on them.

 

[max1234]

Guys, guys, guys, don't forget about the Biffster.... ole Mr 5 outa 8 himself. Of course, his computer crashed when he hit a losing streak but I'm sure that was just a coincidence.

 

[Dante]

welcome angus....I think the people that do win here, and there are a few I believe, do hit around that mark. Anyone that tells they hit more then that is lieing.


good luck and welcome to the RX

 

[angusr]

Thanks for the responses guys, now I put those dreams of a professional gambling career to rest.

 

[WildBill]

Angus, hitting 55% isn't impossible by any means, but any percentage comes in a very streaky run. The long-term winners are guys that handle those runs well. You can go on long runs where you seem to do nothing right and then nothing wrong. The average bettor will spend his winnings or press too much when he is winning and when losing he will change his methods time after time and lose all confidence. Having the belief in yourself and your methods, while still being able to make subtle changes as the game changes are what make winners. As you can imagine these things are so very difficult that most people don't get to 55% over the long run.

As for professional sports gambler, there is so much more to it than just being able to pick winners. The personal life issues as well as the pressure you put yourself under beat almost as many as just insufficient handicapping ability.

 

[wilheim]

It is not so much the % of winners but the amount you bet on different plays. I use a simple 1-2-3 unit system. The trick for me is to manage to hit around 50% of my 1 and 2 unit plays and a at least 60% of my 3 unit plays. Naturally this is easier said than done. I believe in specialization,(I play mostly hockey, and a little football), and very tight betting habits, by that I mean no more than say, 10 to 12 bets per week, no matter how many units each.

wil.

 

[peskypup]

I think Wild Bill has it about right. I bet tennis and got 12 out of 13 winners in the US open first round.

Not that significant stats wise as I have a solid 5% edge, but difficult to stay cool on round 2. Still I upped my units on the basis that I had some guys right and went on to murder the books until the semis.

Then in Madrid I had a terrible first round. I did not assume this was bad luck, since there seemed to be some clear reasons. I went down to 0.5 units and carried on losing for another round before levelling out.

To me there are 3 conditions you must meet before you can win consistently and just having any 2 is not enough:

1. Have a clear edge and understand why it is that you have an edge over other bettors in your sport.

2. Have excellent money management.

3. Be mentally equipped to deal with bad and good streaks sensibly.

 

[DavidMatthews]

55% is kick ass ... IF ... you are grading against normal numbers. I could post picks a point better than available and hit 55% or so. If you can do 55% against normal numbers, then you'll make gazillions of dollars with sports book bonuses, rebates, half-point specials, 14/5 2-team parlays, line shopping, and more.

By the way, I like sick gambler's posts, but his avatar is absolutely disgusting to me. Come on SG, can we change that thing?

 

[sickgambler]

Davey boy, what is wrong with my avatar? It's only some guy eating a big mac..

But since you're a good kid, I will change it just for you.