History Repeats...The Polls Tighten...Panic Creeps into Team Obama

[Mistermj]

Choosing Prosperity and Strength: The Polls Move Towards McCain

Posted by: Hugh Hewitt at 9:20 AM
Yesterday's Gallup shocker (a 2 point gap in the "likely voter" model) is going to have a follow up today if Drudge is right: A Rasmussen poll narrowing the gap to 3 points. Now we know why John McCain and Sarah Palin were both in PA yesterday. The election is tightening across the map as those of us who remember 1976 have been predicting all along. Barack Obama represents a much more radical alternative than Jimmy Carter did in '76, and Carter's unusual profile sent voters by the millions towards Gerald Ford in the closing days. The same thing is happening this year as the very well known and very reliable John McCain enters his last big comeback within striking distance and very much on target.

That target is the combination of Obama's plans for massive tax hikes and a "share the wealth" program and the Biden gaffe on Obama's inexperience attracting a crisis within six months. (Joe Biden also helpfully informed voters yesterday that the taregted taxpayer level is dropping already, this time to $150K). :toast:

McCain is pounding on the fact that Obama's soaring tax burden will guarantee that the market losses of the last month will not be coming back, and that even if they did, would not be left with the taxpayers who earned them. Biden's candor is forcing voters on the fence to consider who they want in charge when the mullahs of Iran make their move towards nukes or against Israel through Hezbollah --or both. (See Michael Barone's latest for a summary of Obama's commitment to the biggest mistakes made in the Depression-era: raising taxes and trade barriers. HT RobinsonandLong.com.)

If the polls tighten any further, panic will grip the inside of Team Obama. In fact, the quick jumps toward McCain guarantees that the GOP will stay energized through the end of the campaign. McCain voters know how hard the MSM has been working to demoralize them and keep them home, and the backfiring of the attempt is wonderful to behold. :missingte

I have been in Colorado and Minnesota with my colleagues Dennis Prager and Michael Medved, and will be at another rally with them tonight in Cleveland. I have never seen such extraordinary turnouts or enthusiasm. The GOP base is every bit as passionate and activated as the Democratic base, outraged at the MSM and deeply worried about the prospects of an Obama-Pelosi-Reid troika doing long lasting damage to the economic and national security of the country as well as to its Constitution through hard left judicial appointees.

In a 50/50 country, every presidential election is going to be close, and this one is no different, no matter how often goofy polls and MSNBC tells you otherwise. :aktion033

Be sure to do your part: Send any bitter, gun-and-God-clinging PA voters you know the link to Perry Nunley's "Redneck Date" at www.amaze.fm to remind them of the Obama-Murtha contempt for their beliefs and region. ope:

<A href="http://hughhewitt.townhall.com/blog/g/ff2dbb51-f269-4ff2-a82d-e4f6120ef228" target=_blank>http://hughhewitt.townhall.com/blog/g/ff2dbb51-f269-4ff2-a82d-e4f6120ef228

 

[BetIt]

Looks like a hiccup in rasmussen & gallup from yesterday

back to expanding a bit..............5-7 range

Rasmussen Reports
10/27 - 10/29 3000 LV 2.0 51 46 Obama +5
Gallup (Traditional)*
10/27 - 10/29 1825 LV 2.0 50 45 Obama +5
Gallup (Expanded)*
10/27 - 10/29 2437 LV 2.0 51 44 Obama +7

For the record I don't see Obama getting over 51%

it may be 51-47-2 though.

 

[D2bets]

Drudge was wrong. Shocker.

Gallup Daily: Obama Lead Among Likely Voters 5 to 7 Points

Now up 50% to 45% in traditional model

• USA
• Election 2008
• Gallup Daily
• Americas
• Northern America

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama holds a statistically significant lead over John McCain in both Gallup likely voter models, according to Oct. 27-29 Gallup Poll Daily tracking. In the traditional model, which defines likely voters based on current voting intention and past voting behavior, Obama holds a 50% to 45% lead. In the expanded model, in which only current voting intentions are considered, his lead is 51% to 44%.​

 

[Mistermj]

LOL...How can Drudge be wrong?

He doesn't write content. :lol:

 

[D2bets]

LOL...How can Drudge be wrong?

He doesn't write content. :lol:

Don't ask me, ask your buddy Hugh Hewitt...


Posted by: Hugh Hewitt at 9:20 AM
"Yesterday's Gallup shocker (a 2 point gap in the "likely voter" model) is going to have a follow up today if Drudge is right"

:missingte

 

[Relentless]

You might want to do a search on the internets for something called the "electoral college".

You should familiarize yourself with how this "electoral college" works.

One thing that you might find of interest in your research is that the president is not decided by the national popular vote.

 

[D2bets]

You might want to do a search on the internets for something called the "electoral college".

You should familiarize yourself with how this "electoral college" works.

One thing that you might find of interest in your research is that the president is not decided by the national popular vote.

Now there's "an inconvenient truth".

 

[barman]

Hugh Hewitt's wet dream is that Rev Pat Robertson will make a late rally and win the 2008 election

 

[steaktartar]

Hugh Hewitt's wet dream is that Rev Pat Robertson will make a late rally and win the 2008 election

:nohead:

 

[3peet]

yawn

 

[Mistermj]

You might want to do a search on the internets for something called the "electoral college".

You should familiarize yourself with how this "electoral college" works.

One thing that you might find of interest in your research is that the president is not decided by the national popular vote.

Yes...we all know that from the 2000 election.

Funny how the Dems all wanted to go kneejerk and throw it out back then? :lol:

 

[gtc08]

mj, you going to be in madison tomorrow night? we should meet up someplace.

 

[Mistermj]

mj, you going to be in madison tomorrow night? we should meet up someplace.

Nope...I'm about an hour away.

Make sure you go to State Street Brats...and wear your Minnesota gear...get drunk and lip off...should be a good time. :lol:

http://www.statestreetbrats.com/

 

[Dafinch]

Reading the whistling-past-the-graveyard pronouncements of Repubs sure does make for entertaining reading! After the latest polls I think Obama's actual chance is more like 98%-99%. Rasmussen, which had been the most worrysome national tracking poll, went from +3 yesterday to +5 today, and look at the numbers in VA, CO, PA, NV, OH, NH.
The national tracking polls come out every day. Other recent national polls are much better for Obama including +14 at Pew which is a respected poll. This seems extreme but nationally he is probably actually about +8. McCain needs to gain 8 points in 5 days, probably impossible even if Bin Laden is captured, and even if he ties the popular vote he will probably lose that pesky little item known as the electoral vote.

Just watched some moron on CNN say that McCain has a good chance in PA despite the polls, because "the Democrats always do much worse in PA than the polls predict." So I checked electoral-vote.com for 2004 (fivethirtyeight.com, my number one place, didn't exist then), and found that the final polls had Kerry plus 4 on the average, and he won the state by only 3. Wow! The polls were wrong by a whole point! Today on electoral-vote.com, Obama is plus 12.

Keep hope alive(wait that's the saying of that annoying Jesse Jackson!), Elephants...:nohead::lolBIG:ope::lol:

 

[Willie99]

LOL...How can Drudge be wrong?

He doesn't write content. :lol:

he doesn't know how to read the graph he posted, the one that said 49/47 two days ago

I guess this means everybody will probably be wrong again tomorrow

hno:

 

[piccolo]

Obama May Visit Arizona, Looking to Put the Full Dem Ticket there "Over the Top"
<!-- Chicklets --> stumble digg reddit del.ico.us news trust <SCRIPT src="http://d.yimg.com/ds/badge.js" badgetype="logo" ____yb="1" showbranding="0">huffington_post:http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dawn-teo/obama-may-visit-arizona-l_b_139158.html</SCRIPT>http://buzz.yahoo.com/article/huffi...teo%2Fobama-may-visit-arizona-l_b_139158.htmlmixx.com




http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dawn-teo/obama-may-visit-arizona-l_b_139158.html

:missingte:missingte:missingte:missingte

They are so scared that they are moving right into mccains backyard and want his state whole!!

:lol:

 

[cussin'it]

Ya know, this is getting kind of pathetic to watch you Rush Limpbag disciples squirm and worm and come up with shit that exceeds the "kitchen sink"

Christ do you guys have any self-respect left anymore?

Just sad to watch the absolute hate coming from the right here.

Change is in the cards,,,,you fuckin monkeys had 8 years to fuck things up, time has come to step the goddamn fuck aside.

Jesus Christ.

 

[cussin'it]

Ya know, this is getting kind of pathetic to watch you Rush Limpbag disciples squirm and worm and come up with shit that exceeds the "kitchen sink"

Christ do you guys have any self-respect left anymore?

Just sad to watch the absolute hate coming from the right here.

Change is in the cards,,,,you fuckin monkeys had 8 years to fuck things up, time has come to step the goddamn fuck aside.

Jesus Christ.

 

[skims]

The data in the first part is a bit stale but the comparison to 2004 is apropos.



34 Days and 34,000 Polls to Go
Oct 2, 2008 | 4:55 PM
Category: Political

Report This Post

Featured On: MyFoxAtlanta Thirty-four days out and many are already writing the obituary of the GOP in this election, and not all of them are members of the leftist media. I hear it from GOP activists and right winged bloggers. Some like Kathleen Parker have even suggested that Sarah Palin drop off the ticket to give McCain any chance of winning. The big “O” seems to have the big “Mo” as we head into the final lap of October.


But I would never count McCain out, especially not this far out. There are also plenty of reasons that the GOP should be hopeful and the Democrats be deathly afraid. Given the long laundry list of things going against the GOP this cycle, Obama should be blowing out McCain.

Problem for the Dems is he’s not.

The Real Clear Politics website currently lists fourteen states as solid for Obama (171 electoral votes), seven states as leaning Obama (88 electoral votes), twenty states solid for McCain (158 electoral votes), one state leaning McCain (5 electoral votes) and nine states (116 electoral votes) as toss ups.

Of those seven states leaning Obama, only one, Colorado, has been a traditionally GOP state. But Colorado, which Bush carried by 8.4% in 2000 and 4.7% in 2004, has been trending Democrat. Despite that trend, still, Obama is only leading within the margin of error in most of the polls.

Other states that have been reliably Democrat for the last several presidential elections like New Jersey (last GOP 1988), Pennsylvania (last GOP 1988), Washington (last GOP 1984), Michigan (last GOP 1988), and Wisconsin (last GOP 1984) are all in the “leaning Obama” column. These are states that Obama should be running away with.

Despite Democrats crowing about Jonathan Martin's report in The Politico that McCain is pulling his resources out of Michigan, these days, meaning for the past 20 years, a win in Michigan would only be considered icing on the cake, but not necessary for the GOP to win.

What should frighten Democrats are Minnesota’s 10 electoral votes. The Grand Old Party has not carried Minnesota in a presidential election since Nixon’s 1972 landslide. In 1984, it was the only state Reagan lost as the Gipper took other Democrat strongholds like Massachusetts, New York, Hawaii, Vermont, etc, well, everything but Minnesota and Washington, D.C.

If the GOP has to make up for losing Colorado’s 9 votes, it can do so with Minnesota’s 10.

In fact, of the toss up states, McCain does have to go 7 and 2 to win, depending on the make-up of those victories. If McCain loses Nevada and New Hampshire, but wins the rest, he wins the election by one electoral vote. If he loses Minnesota and wins those other two, they tie and the Democrat United States House of Representative (in theory) elects Obama President while the Republican Senate (assuming Lieberman votes with the GOP creating a 50-50 tie with Dick Cheney being the tie breaker) elects either McCain or Palin Vice-President.

Add to that, polls tend to naturally skew themselves towards the Democrats.

This is how polling works. Polling organizations call from registered voter lists. Some of them will try to determine how likely an individual is to vote and report only those who say they are more likely to vote (RV versus LV).

One thing polls have a difficult time doing is judging voter intensity. The fact is, the average registered Democrat is less likely to make it to the polls on Election Day than the average Republican.

Case in point:

In the last polls before Election Day in 2004, John Kerry was leading Bush in Florida by as much as 5 points. Bush won 52 – 47%.

In Ohio, Bush was reliably ahead in the final days, but he had been trailing Kerry in the polls most of October after leading most of September by large margins. Bush ended up winning 51 – 49%.

Hawaii was a different situation. Kerry had been up by as much as 10% when all of a sudden, a couple of polls put Bush with a slight lead. In the end, Kerry won the reliably Democrat state by 9 points.

Other states where Kerry had maintained large leads ended with a much tighter victory for the Democrat nominee. For example, Kerry led in Pennsylvania by as much as 8% in October, but won the state 51 – 49%, and Kerry never called Pennsylvanians bitter people who cling to their guns and religion.

And sometimes a state’s history is the best predictor of how things will end. Wisconsin was back and forth throughout October with Bush up by 8 at one point late in the month and then Kerry up by 6 in the next poll. As I said above, Reagan was the last Republican to win the Dairy State. Kerry took it 50 – 49% with only about 11,000 votes separating the two.

Minnesota – Kerry up by 8 points the weekend before and finishes winning by only 2%.

Iowa – polls split in the weekend going into the election with Zogby giving it to Kerry by 5% and Fox News giving it to Bush by 4%. Voters gave it to Bush by 1% in another traditionally Democrat state.

Republican over Democrat voter turnout is usually good for about 2-6% on Election Day. Obama’s leads are not what they should be given Bush’s approval numbers.

Like any other race, it will come down to turnout. McCain’s problem is what it always has been, getting the base to come out for him. But McCain was considered dead in the water this time a year ago. Last fall, McCain had no money and was lagging in the polls behind most of the crowd. Only in the national polls where McCain had high name ID was he even considered a contender. McCain’s who political career, heck, his whole life, has been about surviving situations where most couldn’t.

 

[Mistermj]

Good stuff! Bears repeating....

Case in point:

In the last polls before Election Day in 2004, John Kerry was leading Bush in Florida by as much as 5 points. Bush won 52 – 47%.

In Ohio, Bush was reliably ahead in the final days, but he had been trailing Kerry in the polls most of October after leading most of September by large margins. Bush ended up winning 51 – 49%.

Hawaii was a different situation. Kerry had been up by as much as 10% when all of a sudden, a couple of polls put Bush with a slight lead. In the end, Kerry won the reliably Democrat state by 9 points.

Other states where Kerry had maintained large leads ended with a much tighter victory for the Democrat nominee. For example, Kerry led in Pennsylvania by as much as 8% in October, but won the state 51 – 49%, and Kerry never called Pennsylvanians bitter people who cling to their guns and religion.

And sometimes a state’s history is the best predictor of how things will end. Wisconsin was back and forth throughout October with Bush up by 8 at one point late in the month and then Kerry up by 6 in the next poll. As I said above, Reagan was the last Republican to win the Dairy State. Kerry took it 50 – 49% with only about 11,000 votes separating the two.

Minnesota – Kerry up by 8 points the weekend before and finishes winning by only 2%.

Iowa – polls split in the weekend going into the election with Zogby giving it to Kerry by 5% and Fox News giving it to Bush by 4%. Voters gave it to Bush by 1% in another traditionally Democrat state.

Republican over Democrat voter turnout is usually good for about 2-6% on Election Day. Obama’s leads are not what they should be given Bush’s approval numbers.

Like any other race, it will come down to turnout. McCain’s problem is what it always has been, getting the base to come out for him. But McCain was considered dead in the water this time a year ago. Last fall, McCain had no money and was lagging in the polls behind most of the crowd. Only in the national polls where McCain had high name ID was he even considered a contender. McCain’s who political career, heck, his whole life, has been about surviving situations where most couldn’t.

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