Hilton contest picks: week 16

quantumleap · Dec 24, 2004

</TD></TR><TR><TD height=6></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD bgColor=navy><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD bgColor=silver><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width=610 border=0><TBODY><TR align=middle bgColor=navy><TD colSpan=4>Favorite</TD><TD>|</TD><TD colSpan=4>Dog</TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Picked</TD><TD>Score</TD><TD>Team</TD><TD>Line</TD><TD>Team</TD><TD>Score</TD><TD>Picked</TD><TD>Rank</TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=lavender><TD>5</TD><TD>79</TD><TD></TD><TD>MIN</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>Grb</TD><TD></TD><TD>38</TD><TD>18</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD>4</TD><TD>80</TD><TD></TD><TD>KAN</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>Oak</TD><TD></TD><TD>25</TD><TD>25</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=lavender><TD>19</B></TD><TD>37</TD><TD></TD><TD>Den</TD><TD>4½</TD><TD>TEN</TD><TD></TD><TD>58</TD><TD>11</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD>15</B></TD><TD>46</TD><TD></TD><TD>PIT</TD><TD>5½</TD><TD>Bal</TD><TD></TD><TD>98</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=lavender><TD>7</B></TD><TD>66</TD><TD></TD><TD>DET</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>Chi</TD><TD></TD><TD>27</TD><TD>23</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD>15</B></TD><TD>46</TD><TD></TD><TD>CIN</TD><TD>6½</TD><TD>Nyg</TD><TD></TD><TD>30</TD><TD>22</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=lavender><TD>14</B></TD><TD>47</TD><TD></TD><TD>IND</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>Sdg</TD><TD></TD><TD>68</TD><TD>6</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD>6</B></TD><TD>68</TD><TD></TD><TD>JAX</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>Hou</TD><TD></TD><TD>37</TD><TD>19</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=lavender><TD>21</B></TD><TD>31</TD><TD></TD><TD>TAM</TD><TD>2½</TD><TD>Car</TD><TD></TD><TD>107</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD>14</B></TD><TD>47</TD><TD></TD><TD>NO</TD><TD>4½</TD><TD>Atl</TD><TD></TD><TD>39</TD><TD>17</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=lavender><TD>10</B></TD><TD>63</TD><TD></TD><TD>Ne</TD><TD>2½</TD><TD>NYJ</TD><TD></TD><TD>82</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD>20</B></TD><TD>33</TD><TD></TD><TD>Buf</TD><TD>11½</TD><TD>SFO</TD><TD></TD><TD>46</TD><TD>15</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=lavender><TD>12</B></TD><TD>52</TD><TD></TD><TD>Was</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>DAL</TD><TD></TD><TD>65</TD><TD>8</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD>13</B></TD><TD>49</TD><TD></TD><TD>SEA</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>Arz</TD><TD></TD><TD>40</TD><TD>16</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=lavender><TD>18</B></TD><TD>38</TD><TD></TD><TD>MIA</TD><TD>7½</TD><TD>Cle</TD><TD></TD><TD>26</TD><TD>24</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD>20</B></TD><TD>33</TD><TD></TD><TD>STL</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>Phi</TD><TD></TD><TD>64</TD><TD>9</B></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

quantumleap · Dec 24, 2004

Keep in mind that these lines are given to the contestants on Tuesday and they have until Friday afternoon to make their final picks. The line may have changed making the bet better or worse as a result.

Here is the record of the top 5 picks week-by-week without consideration for line changes:

Week 1: 4-1
Week 2: 1-4
Week 3: 3-2
Week 4: 3-2
Week 5: 3-2
Week 6: 2-3
Week 7: 2-3
Week 8: 3-2
Week 9: 3-2
Week 10: 0-5
Week 11: 5-0
Week 12: 4-1
Week 13: 4-0-1
Week 14: 2-3
Week 15: 3-2

I like to make picks based upon the difference in ranking between opponents and then adjusting for changes in the line. Here are my results-

Week 13: 4-1
Week 14: 4-1
Week 15: 5-3

Here are my picks-

KC -8.5 over Oak (21 difference in ranking)
Bal +5 over Pit (13 difference)
Det -6 over Chi (16 difference)
Jax -7 over Hou (13 difference)
Car +3 over TB (20 difference)

jerseymike111 · Dec 25, 2004

quantumleap-

Bump.....
I have a friend of mine that does the same thing as you.
GL

quantumleap · Dec 25, 2004

jerseymike111 said:
Bump.....
I have a friend of mine that does the same thing as you.
GL

Thanks jerseymike111. I almost always get along well with people from Jersey. Let me know how your friend does.

0-1 so far.

jerseymike111 · Dec 26, 2004

I just got off the phone with him

He's on all 4 of your games...Plus he took the jets.I'm on three of them.Hope you hit them all.....That way I'll go 3 for 3 :103631605

hotsalsa · Dec 26, 2004

QL:
Have a suggestion for your system, which has great merit. I am a participant in the Hilton and have been for several years. There were 400+ entries this year. My count has 329 still playing. There are 230 contestants that are at .500 or above. In calculating your differentials you are including picks from people that are as low as 33% correct. It would take a lot more work, but the top 100 would be a more successful instrument for winning. The bottom of the top 100 is hitting 55%, which is still not great. 20th place is hitting 61% with a 44-28 -3 record. Tiger Wilson, the leader is at 66%.

PS: FYI-Revenge teams were 7-0 last week with 4 outright win reversals of earlier season meetings..Minn. ruined that Friday, but Oak. continued the trend yesterday.

BOL
Chick's Fridge

aka Hot Salsa

quantumleap · Dec 30, 2004

hot:salsa said:
QL:
Have a suggestion for your system, which has great merit. I am a participant in the Hilton and have been for several years. There were 400+ entries this year. My count has 329 still playing. There are 230 contestants that are at .500 or above. In calculating your differentials you are including picks from people that are as low as 33% correct. It would take a lot more work, but the top 100 would be a more successful instrument for winning. The bottom of the top 100 is hitting 55%, which is still not great. 20th place is hitting 61% with a 44-28 -3 record. Tiger Wilson, the leader is at 66%.

PS: FYI-Revenge teams were 7-0 last week with 4 outright win reversals of earlier season meetings..Minn. ruined that Friday, but Oak. continued the trend yesterday.

BOL
Chick's Fridge

aka Hot Salsa

Excellent point HS. As you may see, my picks went 1-3-1 and the top-5 Hilton picks went 1-4. I am new to the Hilton contest and, as you have seen, have started to develop my own angle on the picks. Your suggestion has merit.

I don't believe it would take all that much work to implement your suggestion. Feist's web site has a list of the top 100 picks. I could import it into an Excel spreadsheet and turn a few cranks and flip a few switches to get the results you mention. I think I'll try it for week 17 although I don't plan on making any picks of my own due to the volatility of the time of the season.

The jello's jigglin',

QL