Here it goes, ML favs. Just a place to track my hits and misses

[MrsCheater]

Well, will start today as i am getting to a understanding of how basketball works. I just wanted a little documentable home to put my thoughts and picks. any comments or even some constructive critisizm is more than welcome. No bashing please. Im a delicate flower

I have come across some things while looking at the teams, and im sure everyone else does, but i dont know, so bear with me. i just looked back to the past 5 days of hoops and see i am 18-1 on ML favs. now of course, i dont ever play those cause...well, i just havent yet. but it seems 18-1 can be good even on ML <esp with these 1/2 or 1 pt knives to the heart>

So this lil intro is to just help u know why im so crazy, and u can also chalk it up to "Ughhhh, nevermind, shes just a WOMAN"

TY all in advance GLTA

 

[MrsCheater]

pick for Thurs 1/8 is

Minny -440 for 1 unit

 

[bryan305]

the only thing you want to watch out for on ml's is that if you bet 1 unit on every game, for every one of these -440 bets you lose, you have to win 5 to make up for it.

I figured the best way to go about it is just to bet on the winners.

 

[GLJJNOVA]

MrsC.........Good luck with your experiment, you just might need it. Picking -440 Favorites will leave you VERY LITTLE margin for error to stay profitable. The math is not good, but hey maybe you're good enough that it won't matter.

Best Wishes
Gary

 

[SportSavant]

mrs cheater check the 'handicapping' thread....I was doing a thread calculating to see if ML home dogs were profitable....

laying heavy chalk like 440 will kill you in the long run....Imagine if you had laid 1 unit on San Antonio the other day when they lost at home -900?

Same really holds true for baseball...Randy Johnson may win 15 out of 20 games every year, but it is not profitable to bet on every game he pitches as the vig will kill you when he loses...

hope you dont put much real $$$ on this theory...The thread will be very interesting however to see how it goes....

 

[Zapster]

Ok MrsC.....I found the Wolves at -400 at WSEX, so I threw a "friendly wager" on them to give me a rooting interest, since there are no totals worth playing tonight. Besides that I am positive that this is the first time in my life I have even been "mooned" by a self-described "delicate flower" so how could I NOT play Minny ??

I gotta admit, it is MUCH more relaxing following others' pix than it is making my own !!

Let's get 'um

 

[GLJJNOVA]

Zap........I cannot believe that someone with your money management skills would even think of betting a -400 Fav. Wow, well I sure hope everyone wins. Simply too rich for my blood. Yes Portland is pathetic on the road, but they have enough talent to win this game.

GL
Gary

 

[bryan305]

about that laying one unit at -900...it's the same as laying 1 unit at +500...you only lose 1 unit.

Oh, and Portland will win

 

[SSI]

i can tell you that this will kill you.. you must put these big ML favorites in some type of ML parlay, if you must play them.. this statement has no bearing on whether i think minny wins tonight or not.. but if they dont, then you will have to hit the next 5 in a row just to make a slight profit.. re-do your research and use them in a ML parlay.

 

[MrsCheater]

Wow, thanks for all the great posts today!!! BTW im not saying i would ever play a -440 ML, it just happened to be the only one tonight to look at for me. Im not putting actual cash on them, and looking to see how many of these i like actually cover the spread in the long run. cause im not a ML player by nature.

Of course will cont to do some research and see how i can right my football wrong hehe

And zap, thanks for the vote of confidence. Im extra extra rooting for Minny now!!!

 

[MrsCheater]

After a little more thought here, what i will do <starting tomorrow> is post the plays with + or - lines and also the MLs. i guess what im trying to track is how many picks i like, how many cover and how it woulda been if i had just played the ML. Please continue with the great comments.

PS nice of Zapster to catch my irony

 

[Zapster]

GaryP....

I did play this....but it was what I said it was....a friendly wager for some rooting interest. Plus it is/was fun reversing roles with MrsC in the spirit of comraderie of the forum. Let HER feel the pressure this time of strangers investing their money on one's picks....hehe

Tomorrow I go back to totals-ville.....and more serious money management. In fact I have 3 plays tomorrow I really like (for what it's worth)....but this is MrsC's thread so no stealing of thunder.

I don't want to be premature (I saw someone get VERY embarrassed here yesterday with a premature celebration) but with WOlves up 20 with ball and 4:45 to play, I think ol' Chick Hearn would be saying "The Jello is Gigglin'" at this point.

Thanks MrsC.....I really did make the play because of your post.....and I wish you luck with your ML experimentation !!

 

[bryan305]

maybe I'll start playing your picks instead of mine, mrs.

 

[MrsCheater]

YAY ok, so the first pick hit and covered the points, but will start keeping track with tomorrows plays.

Awesome that u hit on me Zap, makes me

Perhaps u may want to watch my plays and pick a few u like too bryan.

GLTA and YAY <altho i didnt play them>

 

[MrsCheater]

PS no thunder to be stolen in a cloud free sky. Your posts, Zap <and tate> are good wherever they may be posted, and i WILL be watching

 

[WillySCAMZ]

good ol mrs cheater hit some ml's