From WalterFootball.com...
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Detroit Lions: Matt Stafford, QB, Georgia
JAN. 15 UPDATE: With Sam Bradford electing to come back for his redshirt junior season at Oklahoma, the Lions might as well begin printing up Matt Stafford jerseys. Stafford's a near-lock to be chosen first overall.
DEC. 31 UPDATE: Still Matt Stafford. I've seen a few mocks with Sam Bradford on top, but I don't think Bradford is coming out. He's just a red-shirt sophomore, and Roger Goodell just announced that there won't be a pay decrease next year.
For more on the Stafford-offensive tackle debate, check out one of the past few entries from my 2009 NFL Draft Mailbag.
DEC. 25 UPDATE: Despite numerous e-mails from Lions fans insisting that the correct course of action would be drafting an offensive tackle, I'm still calling for a quarterback. Detroit needs a face for their franchise. They can't get a quarterback with Dallas' selection, but they'll be able to grab a tackle with that pick.
Also, Lions owner William Darth Clay Sidious Ford doesn't really care about winning. He just wants money. What brings in more money than a rookie signal caller? Everyone in Detroit will be lining up to buy the new Matt Stafford jersey, especially if he appears to be as promising as Matt Ryan.
PREVIOUS UPDATES: I'm not saying a left tackle isn't a possibility, but like the Falcons last year, the Lions need a face for their franchise. Right now, that face is Matt Millen, even though he was fired a few months ago. When people think about the Detroit franchise, they think about how Millen helped ruin it.
The Lions can get a quality tackle with Dallas' choice or in the No. 33 slot. Assuming most of the junior quarterbacks remain in school, they won't have the chance to secure a top-rated signal-caller in the 2009 NFL Draft. -
St. Louis Rams: Andre Smith, OT, Alabama
JAN. 8 UPDATE: No surprise that Andre Smith declared for the NFL Draft. He won't be downgraded for his suspension in the Airborne Formula Sugar Bowl. Michael Oher could be chosen here, but I went with Smith because the Rams need an upgrade at right tackle until Orlando Pace moves on. At that point, Smith could shift over or just stay at his position.
DEC. 31 UPDATE: Still Andre Smith. Smith was suspended for Alabama's winter practice game against Utah for talking to an agent. I guess that was Smith's announcement right there, huh? It'll be no surprise when Smith officially declares for the 2009 NFL Draft.
PREVIOUS UPDATES: It's been widely publicized that the Rams were ready to pounce on Jake Long if he slipped past the Dolphins. That's understandable, as the injury-ridden Orlando Pace (yes, he's hurt again - what a surprise) will turn 34 during the early stages of the 2009 season, while oft-penalized Alex Barron looks like he's getting benched in favor of guard Jacob Bell, yet another bust acquisition by the Rams. St. Louis needs to draft an offensive tackle as early as possible. -
Kansas City Chiefs: Mark Sanchez, QB, USC
With Sam Bradford going back to school, this selection has become a lot more difficult to predict.
I have a feeling that a lot of mocks in the 2009 NFL Mock Draft Database will have Aaron Curry going here. I don't see that happening. The last time a player who wasn't a quarterback, running back, receiver, offensive tackle, defensive end or under tackle was chosen in the top three selections was LaVar Arrington (Redskins, 2000). I think Scott Pioli is a slightly better drafter than Daniel Snyder, don't you think?
Assuming the Chiefs go to a 3-4 with Pioli, Curry would be an inside linebacker for them. With trading down nearly impossible at No. 3 (no owner will want to trade up and pay tons of money to an unproven player in this economy), it's safe to say Curry won't be chosen.
So, that leaves us with the following options:
Best offensive tackle available
Michael Crabtree
Chris Wells/Knowshon Moreno
Brian Orakpo/Everette Brown
Mark Sanchez
With Larry Johnson still on the books, I think you can eliminate Wells and Moreno. Wide receiver isn't a prime need, so the Crabtree selection becomes unlikely. A left tackle could happen - the Chiefs would move Branden Albert inside.
Orakpo is probably out because he struggled against Alex Boone in the Doritos Fiesta Bowl. Brown is a stronger possibility if he has a great performance at the Combine. The Chiefs are likely to switch to the 3-4, and Brown, a nasty pass rusher coming off a huge year, would fit in perfectly.
However, I'm going with Sanchez. A new regime almost always equals a new quarterback. Sanchez is a hot commodity, coming off a brilliant performance at the Rose Bowl, sponsored by Kraft. The knock on him is the lack of experience, but going 28-of-35 for 413 yards and four touchdowns against Penn State pretty much quelled those concerns.
By the way, I'd like to say that this 2009 NFL Mock Draft is based on what I think will happen; not on what should happen.
If I were running the Chiefs, I'd continue to go with Tyler Thigpen. Thigpen did a remarkable job as the full-time quarterback, commanding Kansas City's offense to 21.6 points per game since Oct. 26. I know he was guilty of a lot of turnovers, but this was essentially his rookie year. He also had a weak running game and a pedestrian offensive line. He'll continue to get better.
Pick change; previously Sam Bradford, QB -
Seattle Seahawks: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
It's pretty much a lock that the Seahawks will choose Michael Crabtree with this selection. As I said in my 2009 NFL Draft Mailbag, Bobby Engram, 36, will be hitting free agency. Deion Branch, who is always hurt, could be a cap casualty. Nate Burleson stinks and is coming off a torn ACL. The rest of the wideouts are terrible. If the Seahawks don't address the position, they can have fun struggling offensively next year.
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Cleveland Browns: Aaron Curry, ILB, Wake Forest
With the hiring of Eric Mangini and the continued use of the 3-4 defense, it looks like this selection will come down to one of three players: Brian Orakpo, Aaron Curry or Everette Brown.
The Browns need help throughout their linebacking corps, so either one of the three would make sense.
I'm saying it'll be Curry, who will be an instant upgrade in the middle of the 3-4. Orakpo played poorly in the Doritos Fiesta Bowl, while Brown at No. 5 will be a bit of a reach until he blows everyone away at the Combine. -
Cincinnati Bengals: Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss
I find it remarkable that the Bengals finished the year on a 4-3-1 run. With Ryan Fitzpatrick, Cedric Benson and an inept offensive line that allowed 51 sacks running the show, how did the Bengals win more than two games? Marvin Lewis - Coach of the Year!
In all seriousness, the Bengals need to improve their pass protection if they want to contend next year. With Carson Palmer coming back from his elbow injury, Cincinnati cannot afford to have him get hurt again. -
Oakland Raiders: Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia
If Michael Crabtree somehow makes it past Kansas City, Seattle, Cleveland and Cincinnati, which is very unlikely, the Raiders will draft him. Unfortunately for the Silver and Black faithful, that's not very realistic.
Oakland needs to improve its offensive line. I know Mario Henderson played well toward the end of the year, but he's not a franchise left tackle that a No. 1 overall quarterback deserves.
Unless some defensive player dazzles at the Combine and runs a really quick 40, Undead Al will probably choose the best tackle available. -
Jacksonville Jaguars: Jason Smith, OT, Baylor
David Garrard's interception total has soared from three to 13 in just one year. But don't blame him. He was knocked down more than any other quarterback this season. And according to the sacks totals allowed by NFL left tackles, Khalif Barnes was one of the league's worst, surrendering 7.5 sacks.
Jacksonville must take care of its franchise quarterback. The team desperately needs to upgrade Garrard's blind side. -
Green Bay Packers: Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State
This could be Brian Orakpo, but given how much he struggled against Alex Boone in the Doritos Fiesta Bowl, Malcolm Jenkins could be higher on Green Bay's draft board. Besides, it's not like the Packers don't need corner help; excluding Tramon Williams, they have two ancient guys at the position, one of whom (Al Harris) told the media that he doesn't expect to be back. Charles Woodson, meanwhile, turns 33 soon, so he won't be able to play corner much longer. He moved to safety in 2008, and will likely stay there on a full-time basis sometime soon, if not right away. -
San Francisco 49ers: Everette Brown, DE/OLB, Florida State
Manny Lawson has been a bust in terms of his ability to get to the quarterback. While Parys Haralson evolved into a dependable pass-rusher, Lawson has compiled six career sacks in 32 games. Terrible.
It's time for the 49ers to move on in terms of finding a dynamic sack artist. Everette Brown would be a nice solution; he fits the scheme and he finished the year with 21.5 TFL and 13.5 sacks. -
Buffalo Bills: Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas
One of the reasons Buffalo collapsed from a 5-1 record and maintained the same draft position it had in April 2008 is its lacking pass rush. The team finished with 24 sacks on the year, and no player had more than four. I know Aaron Schobel missed most of the year, but the Bills had similar problems even when he was in the lineup.
Though he struggled in the Doritos Fiesta Bowl, Brian Orakpo had a brilliant senior campaign, finishing with 15.5 TFL and 10.5 sacks in 11 games. -
Denver Broncos: Rey Maualuga, ILB, USC
Mike Shanahan was fired, and Wade Phillips wasn't? What's going on here?
Josh McDaniels was hired as the head coach, and he brought on Mike Nolan as his defensive coordinator. Nolan will implement his 3-4 defense, meaning the Broncos will be busy scouring for the right personnel to fit that scheme in the next two drafts.
They can start by selecting Rey Maualuga, the top pure 3-4 inside linebacker on the board. Maybe he can help the team rank outside the bottom five in defense for the first time in ages.
Pick change; previously Taylor Mays, S -
Washington Redskins: Eben Britton, OT, Arizona
The Redskins have major problems at right tackle. Jon Jansen, who turns 33 in January, is playing on his last legs. Eben Britton would fit in well on the right side, and could potentially slide over to the blind side once Samuels' time is up. -
New Orleans Saints: James Laurinaitis, ILB, Ohio State
It's going to be tough for the Saints to retain Jonathan Vilma. Should they extend Vilma or re-sign him prior to the opening day of free agency, they'll be forced to forfeit this selection. They can always re-sign him in March and shift him over to weakside linebacker, however.
Regardless, New Orleans really needs an upgrade at middle linebacker. The way I see it, this selection is James Laurinaitis in all likelihood, with Brandon Spikes and Taylor Mays returning to school. -
Houston Texans: William Moore, S, Missouri
Defensive end is definitely an option here (Aaron Maybin or Michael Johnson), but Houston's secondary has been an abomination for years and has always missed a ball-hawking leader. William Moore can be that guy. Vontae Davis is also a major option if Dunta Robinson is let go. -
San Diego Chargers: Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State
It's amazing how much can change in half a year. In August, LaDainian Tomlinson was going first in nine out of 10 fantasy football drafts. Now, there's speculation that Tomlinson could be let go. RotoWorld, meanwhile, reported that several NFL executives don't believe LT2 is even worth a Day 1 selection at this point.
With Darren Sproles also hitting free agency, the Chargers need to secure a top-tier running back in April's draft.
Pick change; previously Rey Maualuga, ILB -
New York Jets: Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois
A few days prior to the Jets-49ers game, I wrote a short column for USA Today's Sports Weekly, opining that Shaun Hill was a great fantasy start that weekend. My reasoning was that the Jets gave out 240-yard passing performances like candy on Halloween. Hill went on to throw for 285 yards and two touchdowns. That's one of about 5,000 examples that proves the Jets desperately need corner help.
Pick change; previously Brandon Spikes, ILB
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Chicago Bears: Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech
The Bears really need help at receiver, and with mega-talents like Jeremy Maclin and Percy Harvin on the board, choosing one of them is a possibility. But I doubt Chicago does that. The Bears will upgrade their perennial strengths - the offensive line and defense - before anything else.
It sounds weird to say this, but the Bears need help at defensive end. Prior to playing the Rams, who count more as a Big XII team than an NFL squad, starters Alex Brown and Adewale Ogunleye had just five combined sacks in 10 games. Mark Anderson, meanwhile, recorded only one sack. Chicago needs to upgrade its pass rush.
Everyone talks about Michael Johnson not performing up to his physical talents, but the athletic end recorded 15 tackles for loss, seven sacks and seven passes broken up. -
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia
When Cadillac Williams went down with yet another injury, I immediately thought of giving the Buccaneers a running back at No. 19. With Earnest Graham coming off injury, Warrick Dunn turning 34 and Cadillac a virtual unknown, Tampa Bay really needs help at running back.
Knowshon Moreno is a steal here. He and Chris Wells would be top-10 prospects if the need for running backs hadn't diminished. -
Detroit Lions: William Beatty, OT, Connecticut
Is this a bit of a reach? I think so. But as we saw last year, the offensive tackle position is in such high demand that teams don't really have a choice but to target those players early. See Sam Baker and Duane Brown as prime examples.
The Lions surrendered 52 sacks in 2008. They desperately need a dominant left tackle, allowing Jeff Backus to slide inside.
Pick change; previously Ciron Black, OT -
Arizona Cardinals: LeSean McCoy, RB, Pittsburgh
The Cardinals were somehow able to run the ball at Carolina, but that doesn't change the fact that they need an upgrade in the backfield. Edgerrin James' days in Arizona are numbered, while Tim Hightower does too much dancing around. I also considered Aaron Maybin here.
Pick change; previously Chris Wells, RB -
Minnesota Vikings: D.J. Moore, CB, Vanderbilt
I really want to give the Vikings an offensive tackle, but with all of the top-tier players at that position off the board, Minnesota could look to address its second greatest need, which is cornerback. Cedric Griffin has had an up-and-down season, and Minnesota simply needs more consistency in its defensive backfield. D.J. Moore's dynamic return ability makes this pick more lucrative.
Pick change; previously Vontae Davis, CB -
New England Patriots: Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB, Penn State
Bill Belichick added a young inside linebacker to his roster last April. He may look to upgrade the exterior this time around.
The Patriots struggled to put pressure on the quarterback at times (31 sacks) and Mike Vrabel, though still dependable, will be 34 in August. Something has to be done about this.
Pick change; previously Clint Sintim, DE/OLB
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Atlanta Falcons: B.J. Raji, NT, Boston College
Atlanta did an incredible job rebounding off its disastrous 2007 season. The team barely has any holes left on its roster, but one glaring one is at nose tackle, which is the main reason why they couldn't contain Arizona's woeful rushing attack. -
Miami Dolphins: Duke Robinson, G, Oklahoma
The Dolphins can take care of a huge hole at left guard by drafting Duke Robinson in this spot. With Jake Long and Robinson on the left side, Miami would boast one of the elite rushing attacks in the league.
Pick change; previously D.J. Moore, CB -
Baltimore Ravens: Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri
Mark Clayton has started playing really well lately, but with Derrick Mason, who just turned 35, a year away from hitting free agency, it's time the Ravens begin developing their next No. 1 receiver for Joe Flacco. - Indianapolis Colts: Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss
Both sides of Indianapolis' run defense has to be addressed. Defensive tackle has always been a problem for the Colts, especially after the Ed Johnson marijuana scandal. I could see the Colts taking the best available player in terms of a running back, defensive tackle or offensive tackle. - Philadelphia Eagles: Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State
According to 610 WIP, the Eagles tried to deal for Kellen Winslow Jr. prior to the trade deadline. If they're so desperate for a tight end, they have to take one early in the 2009 NFL Draft, right?
It's no surprise the Eagles wanted Winslow so bad; it's pretty much a miracle when L.J. Smith doesn't drop a pass. When Andy Reid franchised him last spring, I really questioned the move. Big Red won't make the same mistake twice. - New York Giants: Paul Kruger, DE, Utah
This pick really depends on what the Giants do with Mathias Kiwanuka once Osi Umenyiora comes back. If they bring Kiwanuka back to strongside linebacker, they'll likely take a defensive end in Round 1. If they keep Kiwanuka up front, they'll choose a linebacker like Clint Sintim or Brian Cushing.
Wide receiver is also an option, but this draft is so deep at the position that the Giants can take someone like Kenny Britt, Hakeem Nicks or Brandon LaFell in the second round.
Pick change; previously Greg Hardy, DE - Tennessee Titans: Percy Harvin, WR, Florida
Yeah, I know... the Titans don't draft receivers. Hey, miracles can happen, and maybe they'll be embarrassed because everyone made fun of them for not taking one last year.
In all seriousness, Tennessee has proven in the past that they look for skill-position players with great 40 times. Percy Harvin would qualify for that. - Philadelphia Eagles: Phil Loadholt, OT, Oklahoma
Andy Reid loves large offensive linemen. Whatever the reason may be - some argue that he's insecure about being the only massive man in the room - you have to believe that Reid will draft two mammoth linemen in the first three rounds.
Like the Lions-William Beatty pick, this is a reach. But as I noted, expect teams to reach for tackles come April.
Pick change; previously Duke Robinson, G - Pittsburgh Steelers: Alex Mack, C, California
The fact that the top guards and tackles are off the board shouldn't deter the Steelers from drafting a lineman. They need all the help up front that they can get.
Alex Mack, whom many consider to be one of the top center prospects in a very long time, could be next in the line of great centers who have played in Pittsburgh.
hno:
