I'm an Eagles fan and I've been watching Eagles games for years. I also have watched a lot of Minnesota games as well this year and I am beginning to fall in love with the Under 42.5.
Let me list my reasons why I like it so much.
1. Brad Childress
For two reasons: 1) he's an awful coach 2) he knows the Eagles offense, tendencies inside and out. He makes more decisions. Exhibit A) punting the ball in the 4th quarter to Tennessee with some 2 minutes to go instead of going for it on 4th down. The Titans then promptly kneeled the clock out.
He chokes up in big games (as well as Andy).
Second, he's been on the hot seat and he's going to pull out all the tricks and inside information he knows about McNabb. On the converse of this, as his former offensive coordinator, Andy knows Brad Childress' tendencies and play calling very well.
2. Trends- (I'm going to copy this directly from covers.com)
Under is 4-0-1 in Eagles last 5 playoff games as a favorite.
Under is 5-1-1 in Eagles last 7 playoff games.
Under is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 road games.
Under is 5-2-1 in Eagles last 8 games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Under is 8-3-1 in Eagles last 12 games following a SU win of more than 14 points
Under is 16-5 in Eagles last 21 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Vikings last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record (You can barely count the Bears game in this, it was almost freak)
3. Previous Games
Last two games as Brad Childress as coach:
Eagles 23, Vikings 16
Eagles 24, Vikings 14
Also, remember, the line opened at 42.5. 75% of the public is on the over and the line moves down to 41.5. I'm hoping that it will move back to the critical 42. 5 before gametime as the public jumps in.
The line also has to be influenced by what happened last week against the Cowboys. I had the under in that game, and let me say this, if that game was played again tomorrow, I would take the under again. You can't take that 44-6 score at face value (o/u was 40.5).
First, the Eagles were able to put up 10 bs points right before the half. The Tony Romo threw an interception to the Eagles 35 with two minutes to go. Sheldon Brown returned the ball to the Cowboys 42. Then, on that drive, the Cowboys accumulated almost 30 yards in penalties (a personal foul and a pass interferance). In addition, these personal fouls were both on third down! After the Eagles scored from the Cowboys 1 on 1st and Goal on the One. They kicked off and Pacman fumbled it on their 25 with 3 seconds.. FG David Akers -> Cowboys quit.
Next, you have to include the two 96 yd and 73 yd fumble returns for Tuchdown. Trust me, it may have read 44-6 on the scoreboard but this was really should have been that high. The Cowboys indeed had trouble moving the ball but the Eagles offense was not as dominating as the scoreboard suggests.
Nevertheless, remember, the Eagles have only given up 19 points in THREE games. In addition, they only gave up 14 to the Giants and one was off a meaningless tuchdown late into the 4th with the game essentially decided. It was 20-7 I believe with only 2 minutes left for the Giants.
The Eagles are on of the most inconsistent teams in football. However, they do not consistently put up big points. The major point I want to make is that both these teams both play very conservatively in big games. The Eagles have put up major stinkers in playoff games and I do not see this as being any different. We have seen the Eagles struggle to do anything in big games and also dominate other teams defensively.
Play Calling
Both Brad Childress and Andy Reed both are going to call this game very conservatively. The pressure is on both of these coaches like never before. Besides perhaps Norv Turner, these are the only other coaches that have been put on the hot seat all season. I believe both teams will resort to the run. This means a lot of clock is going to be run. Andy probably will try to toss it up a little in the first quarter, but if this isn't greeted with immediate success, he chokes up.
Defense
I think you have two of the better secondaries in pro football going against each other. Antoine Winfield and Asante Samuel are both pro bowlers. Sheldon Brown is very good as well. The Eagles have probably the best Nickel corner in football in Lito Sheppard. From the little I know about Cedric Griffin, he is decent.
I can see both teams having trouble with slowing down the pass rush. Jon Runyan is a very capable tackle but he is notorious for having trouble with Elite NFL ends. Jared Allen will be up for this game and I wouldn't be suprised if he had 3 sacks. Shawn Andrews, the Eagles pro bowl Guard, is out with "back spasms" aka crazy and Max "Mean Jean" Gilles is just adequate. I think the guards and centers will have a little trouble with the Williams Wall.
On the converse, I see little chance of Tavaris Jackson opening this game up. This is a team that was barely able to put up 20 on the Lions and the second string of the New York Giants. I think the 20 they struggled to get on the Giants is very telling. The Defensive Coordinator of the Giants (Steve Spagnolo) was the former linebackers coach of the Eagles. If you listen to one fox broadcast of the Giants, I'm sure you heard the "under the toutlage of Jim Johnson speel". The same blitzes and schemes that the Giants used to keep the vikings out of the end zone will be used against them by the Eagles. Tavaris Jackson did not have a very great game and I think it will be further exacerbated by ther fact that a team who actually cares about winning will be using the same schemes. Brad Childress may be a bad coach but I do not see him wanting to put the game into Tavaris Jackson's hand. Look for him to esablish a running game at all cost that will furhter drain the clock.
I really see this game going 17-10. I find it even more plausible that one team or the other is kept within single digits. Both teams will start off slow imho and if you can get 21.5 for 1H, I would grab it.
Let me list my reasons why I like it so much.
1. Brad Childress
For two reasons: 1) he's an awful coach 2) he knows the Eagles offense, tendencies inside and out. He makes more decisions. Exhibit A) punting the ball in the 4th quarter to Tennessee with some 2 minutes to go instead of going for it on 4th down. The Titans then promptly kneeled the clock out.
He chokes up in big games (as well as Andy).
Second, he's been on the hot seat and he's going to pull out all the tricks and inside information he knows about McNabb. On the converse of this, as his former offensive coordinator, Andy knows Brad Childress' tendencies and play calling very well.
2. Trends- (I'm going to copy this directly from covers.com)
Under is 4-0-1 in Eagles last 5 playoff games as a favorite.
Under is 5-1-1 in Eagles last 7 playoff games.
Under is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 road games.
Under is 5-2-1 in Eagles last 8 games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Under is 8-3-1 in Eagles last 12 games following a SU win of more than 14 points
Under is 16-5 in Eagles last 21 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Vikings last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record (You can barely count the Bears game in this, it was almost freak)
3. Previous Games
Last two games as Brad Childress as coach:
Eagles 23, Vikings 16
Eagles 24, Vikings 14
Also, remember, the line opened at 42.5. 75% of the public is on the over and the line moves down to 41.5. I'm hoping that it will move back to the critical 42. 5 before gametime as the public jumps in.
The line also has to be influenced by what happened last week against the Cowboys. I had the under in that game, and let me say this, if that game was played again tomorrow, I would take the under again. You can't take that 44-6 score at face value (o/u was 40.5).
First, the Eagles were able to put up 10 bs points right before the half. The Tony Romo threw an interception to the Eagles 35 with two minutes to go. Sheldon Brown returned the ball to the Cowboys 42. Then, on that drive, the Cowboys accumulated almost 30 yards in penalties (a personal foul and a pass interferance). In addition, these personal fouls were both on third down! After the Eagles scored from the Cowboys 1 on 1st and Goal on the One. They kicked off and Pacman fumbled it on their 25 with 3 seconds.. FG David Akers -> Cowboys quit.
Next, you have to include the two 96 yd and 73 yd fumble returns for Tuchdown. Trust me, it may have read 44-6 on the scoreboard but this was really should have been that high. The Cowboys indeed had trouble moving the ball but the Eagles offense was not as dominating as the scoreboard suggests.
Nevertheless, remember, the Eagles have only given up 19 points in THREE games. In addition, they only gave up 14 to the Giants and one was off a meaningless tuchdown late into the 4th with the game essentially decided. It was 20-7 I believe with only 2 minutes left for the Giants.
The Eagles are on of the most inconsistent teams in football. However, they do not consistently put up big points. The major point I want to make is that both these teams both play very conservatively in big games. The Eagles have put up major stinkers in playoff games and I do not see this as being any different. We have seen the Eagles struggle to do anything in big games and also dominate other teams defensively.
Play Calling
Both Brad Childress and Andy Reed both are going to call this game very conservatively. The pressure is on both of these coaches like never before. Besides perhaps Norv Turner, these are the only other coaches that have been put on the hot seat all season. I believe both teams will resort to the run. This means a lot of clock is going to be run. Andy probably will try to toss it up a little in the first quarter, but if this isn't greeted with immediate success, he chokes up.
Defense
I think you have two of the better secondaries in pro football going against each other. Antoine Winfield and Asante Samuel are both pro bowlers. Sheldon Brown is very good as well. The Eagles have probably the best Nickel corner in football in Lito Sheppard. From the little I know about Cedric Griffin, he is decent.
I can see both teams having trouble with slowing down the pass rush. Jon Runyan is a very capable tackle but he is notorious for having trouble with Elite NFL ends. Jared Allen will be up for this game and I wouldn't be suprised if he had 3 sacks. Shawn Andrews, the Eagles pro bowl Guard, is out with "back spasms" aka crazy and Max "Mean Jean" Gilles is just adequate. I think the guards and centers will have a little trouble with the Williams Wall.
On the converse, I see little chance of Tavaris Jackson opening this game up. This is a team that was barely able to put up 20 on the Lions and the second string of the New York Giants. I think the 20 they struggled to get on the Giants is very telling. The Defensive Coordinator of the Giants (Steve Spagnolo) was the former linebackers coach of the Eagles. If you listen to one fox broadcast of the Giants, I'm sure you heard the "under the toutlage of Jim Johnson speel". The same blitzes and schemes that the Giants used to keep the vikings out of the end zone will be used against them by the Eagles. Tavaris Jackson did not have a very great game and I think it will be further exacerbated by ther fact that a team who actually cares about winning will be using the same schemes. Brad Childress may be a bad coach but I do not see him wanting to put the game into Tavaris Jackson's hand. Look for him to esablish a running game at all cost that will furhter drain the clock.
I really see this game going 17-10. I find it even more plausible that one team or the other is kept within single digits. Both teams will start off slow imho and if you can get 21.5 for 1H, I would grab it.
