Help HEDGE MONDAY NIGH?

[BoxedLunch]

I have 2 parlays and 1 teasers that only hit if the Chargers WIN the game tonight...SHOULD I HEDGE with Seattle ML???

Here are my 3 plays:


2 team Parlay: (650 to win 1015)

Broncos TT over 20pts (WINNER)
San Diego ML

2 team teaser: (650 to win 590)


Broncos +3.5 (WINNER)
San Diego +.5


2 Parlay: (2500 to win 3373)

Cowboys TT over 10.5 1st half (WINNER)
San Diego ML


My question is should I put $1,500 on Seattle ML (+200) or let it ride?

Thanks!

Boxed Lunch

 

[BoxedLunch]

C;mon guys! Need some help. So, I invested $2200 in my bankroll for football...Have about $1500 in my account now and if SD wins it will be just about $11K (No hedge)

If I do hedge and SD loses I will then have $3K and up $800 total. Who has the edge tonight?> Seattle without Hasselback but SD without LT, Gates...

Opinions Wanted!

 

[Hossboxer]

If my calculations are right, with no hedge, a SD win gives you $4978

Hedging Seattle at +200 for $1500 wins you 3000 if Seattle wins SU, minus the 3800 you will lose from your three current bets, leaving you at -800.

If you do this hedge and SD wins SU, then you are up 4978-1500=1478

So with your hedge, your best case scenario is +$1478 and worst case scenario is -$800.

Currently, with no hedge, your best case scenario is + $4978 and worst case scenario is -3800.

If you hedge at $1900, your worst case scenario becomes break even.

Personally, I would not hedge any of these bets. Let me know what you end up doing.

 

[BoxedLunch]

Thanks for the info. Sorry, I was adding the total risk and winning ballance for the win.

But you are correct. Not sure on what to do...just trying to get some insight if SD will take this game serious or go with the safe play and hedge.

My gut tells me to let SD roll tonight but would hate to end up with a loss.

 

[BAGIANT]

Don't bother to hedge. You didn't bet that much anyway!

 

[BoxedLunch]

Hedge???

Should I Tease Seattle +11.5 and Over 31pts for $1500, that way I could hit both bets?

Just trying to make sure I leave with something on this bet...any chance SD loses this game straight up???


Thanks!

 

[EinsteinSys]

Should I Tease Seattle +11.5 and Over 31pts for $1500, that way I could hit both bets?

Just trying to make sure I leave with something on this bet...any chance SD loses this game straight up???


Thanks!

No I don't think SD losses this game but I would still hedge. It's preseason and anything can happen.

Don't try and get too fancy. Just take the ML bet on Seattle. That 2 team teaser your talking about is not a hedge bet. You can end up losing everything. Example: Sea 13 SD 10. I don't think that would be a good feeling. It's a long season.

 

[mlmleads]

seattle will win by spread but maybe not straight.. so wouldn"t hedge jsut take your chances. I took seattle straight and half as much seattle money line.

 

[CAP-IT-OFF]

seattle will win by spread but maybe not straight.. so wouldn"t hedge jsut take your chances. I took seattle straight and half as much seattle money line.

I would buy back Seatle ML to hedge and insure I don't lose money. Just buy enough to ensure you still make profit no matter who wins.

 

[Snookslayer]

Parlays in general cost extra vig. When you hedge a parlay, you effectively pay even MORE vig.

Let it ride.

 

[hiphop22]

If my calculations are right, with no hedge, a SD win gives you $4978

Hedging Seattle at +200 for $1500 wins you 3000 if Seattle wins SU, minus the 3800 you will lose from your three current bets, leaving you at -800.

If you do this hedge and SD wins SU, then you are up 4978-1500=1478

So with your hedge, your best case scenario is +$1478 and worst case scenario is -$800.

Currently, with no hedge, your best case scenario is + $4978 and worst case scenario is -3800.

If you hedge at $1900, your worst case scenario becomes break even.

Personally, I would not hedge any of these bets. Let me know what you end up doing.

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This is the best analysis so far. The math is wrong, I think. It should be:

"If you do this hedge and SD wins SU, then you are up 4978-1500=3478"
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I like how these guys talk about losing juice and use that as an excuse to not hedge. You can guarantee no loss if you bet $1900, and you would be risking $0 to win $3K. Do it.

 

[BoxedLunch]

Hmmm, thanks for the help guys! So, sounds like the concensis is Seattle ML for $1,000 to win $1,950 (+195)

Should I also take Seattle on the spread for another $500???


(Max bet is $1K on the ML at betus.com)

 

[Jetplane]

I think the SEA ML Hedge for a G is good enough. No sense in taking the spread... either they'll edge it out or they'll flop. You don't want to lose another 500 in case they don't cover.

 

[709]

keep your SD teaser,bet on seattle with a same face value of your SD ML

 

[junkman773]

IMO seattle wins out right.

Just my 2 cents

 

[Snookslayer]

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I like how these guys talk about losing juice and use that as an excuse to not hedge. You can guarantee no loss if you bet $1900, and you would be risking $0 to win $3K. Do it.

Once you've succesfully reached the last game of a parlay, hedging can gaurantee break-even or winning some money - no doubt. But if you knew you were going to hedge from the beginning, then why include that final game in the parlay? Mathmatically, you'd have been better off without it. Then again, mathmatically you shouldn't place parlay bets to begin with.

IMO hedging is really only useful for people who make a parlay and then get cold feet about the final game. And the cold feet could be valid due to new injury information or something.

 

[PICKAPEPPA]

Hedging a two team parlay......wowhno:

 

[PICKAPEPPA]

Once you've succesfully reached the last game of a parlay, hedging can gaurantee break-even or winning some money - no doubt. But if you knew you were going to hedge from the beginning, then why include that final game in the parlay? Mathmatically, you'd have been better off without it. Then again, mathmatically you shouldn't place parlay bets to begin with.

IMO hedging is really only useful for people who make a parlay and then get cold feet about the final game. And the cold feet could be valid due to new injury information or something.

Sorry but that's not true. There are times when parlays are more +EV than straight bets.

 

[BoxedLunch]

Final Decision!

THanks Guys!

Here is what I decided on:

Seattle ML (+195) $1,000 to win $1,950

Seattle +11.5
Over 31.5pts $500 to win 454


Figured to play it safe and walk up than walk with nothing! Hope SD takes it, have around 9K of a bankroll with 2,200 inital investment!

Thanks guys!

Go Chargers!

Boxed Lunch

 

[Snookslayer]

Sorry but that's not true. There are times when parlays are more +EV than straight bets.

Football and Basketball have fixed parlay odds.... 2.6:1 for two-team parlays. When the games are listed at -110 or less, the math doesn't work.

What situation would make parlays more profitable than straight-bets?

:think2: