ill pull for your over as well. Ted, about 85% of my plays are (sides for 1 unit), i play very few parlays, teasers or other kinds of plays.
I hit the Isles +1.15, making me 4-2 on the day, losses: Cincy, Philly.
wins: miami, dallas, orlando, isles.
pemding SJ, and den over 10.5 (1H), so worst i can do is a 4-4 day..
that darn philly got me as well today.. nice talking with you.. the market should keep rising, once we cleared the 50% retrace at around 9600, we should now move to 10,600. of course there will be retracements along the way,, im vested heavily in WMT and the last few weeks have been a little unkind..
I hit the Isles +1.15, making me 4-2 on the day, losses: Cincy, Philly.
wins: miami, dallas, orlando, isles.
pemding SJ, and den over 10.5 (1H), so worst i can do is a 4-4 day..
that darn philly got me as well today.. nice talking with you.. the market should keep rising, once we cleared the 50% retrace at around 9600, we should now move to 10,600. of course there will be retracements along the way,, im vested heavily in WMT and the last few weeks have been a little unkind..
Great job SSI
sb
sb
ted what do you think of a "Moneyline" strategy, playing 1 unit on all dogs with winning records, and playing 2 units on all dogs with a better record than their opponent.. this is something ive been kicking around, the 2 unit plays today would have been : Saints, Dolphins, Isles, Sharks.. 1 unit plays: sixers, jazz, bengals, thrashers, broncos, blazers.. of course this is mechanical and i dont rely too heavily on a mechanical, if i did this regularly, id play (and this is an example), 1 unit plays $25, 2 unit plays $50, and keep my capping at $100, just as it is now.. sorry for rambling, any ideas.. ML dogs as you know are a great payoff.
SSI
First let me congratulate your on a winning day today. Sorry if I had any influence on you betting Philadelphia today.
As for your question regarding moneylines, I've lived by a relatively simple rule which I'm sure you've heard before. The rule is KISS which stands for Keep It Simple Stupid. I'll play a moneyline when there is value whether it be a dog or favorite. I stick to fundamentals always and try not to get mechanical. If your going to test something, try it on paper first before placing any money on it. Plus, give it enough time to prove itself to you. Just my thoughts.
First let me congratulate your on a winning day today. Sorry if I had any influence on you betting Philadelphia today.
As for your question regarding moneylines, I've lived by a relatively simple rule which I'm sure you've heard before. The rule is KISS which stands for Keep It Simple Stupid. I'll play a moneyline when there is value whether it be a dog or favorite. I stick to fundamentals always and try not to get mechanical. If your going to test something, try it on paper first before placing any money on it. Plus, give it enough time to prove itself to you. Just my thoughts.
just tossing ideas ted, you didnt influence me on the philly game, i capped it myself... nothing will replace my capping, im very well aware of KISS, i use it in trading as well..
ill keep you posted on the dog ML mechanical testing.. ill update you starting today and we will see how it does "on paper" first.. just 2 guys -- kicking ideas..
ill keep you posted on the dog ML mechanical testing.. ill update you starting today and we will see how it does "on paper" first.. just 2 guys -- kicking ideas..
hello ted, sunday recap for dog ML system.
1 unit plays.(dogs with winning records)
Sixers +2.80 Loss. -1.0 unit
Utah +2.80 Loss -1.0 unit
Port +5.00 Loss -1.0 unit
Bengals +2.40 Loss -1.0 unit
Broncos +2.50 Win +2.5 units
Thrashers +1.80 Win +1.8 units
total: 2-4 +0.3 units.
2 unit plays (dogs with better records)
Dolphins +1.30 Win +2.60 units
Saints +1.30 Loss -2.00 units
Isles +1.15 Win +2.30 units
Sharks +1.30 Win +2.60 units
total 3-1 +5.4 units
grand total 5-5 (+5.6 units)
ill keep you posted for tomorrow.
1 unit plays.(dogs with winning records)
Sixers +2.80 Loss. -1.0 unit
Utah +2.80 Loss -1.0 unit
Port +5.00 Loss -1.0 unit
Bengals +2.40 Loss -1.0 unit
Broncos +2.50 Win +2.5 units
Thrashers +1.80 Win +1.8 units
total: 2-4 +0.3 units.
2 unit plays (dogs with better records)
Dolphins +1.30 Win +2.60 units
Saints +1.30 Loss -2.00 units
Isles +1.15 Win +2.30 units
Sharks +1.30 Win +2.60 units
total 3-1 +5.4 units
grand total 5-5 (+5.6 units)
ill keep you posted for tomorrow.
SSI, this is a very good theory...I also love to wager on the ML dogs...Especially in Hockey & baseball...I focus on situations where I am getting extra Money at home or the .5 goal with some extra money at home...Also like looking for good situations to take the extra money on the Hockey Totals...
I have found that with an account at 365, pinny & have noticed that odds at lay107 I can get quite a differential on Hockey Lines (SIA aswell but I cannot recommend playing there as they are shaky).
365 tends to be heavy on the favorites & the dime line at pinny is supreme for hockey...lay 107 also great for Hockey it seems.
Ultimately needing to hit less than 50% of wagers to make money is very appealing to me. Incidentally there is often tremndous value playing ML dogs at 365. I suggest we keep this thread going over the entire season & test these theories...
If you like I will keep a tally in this thread of:
HOME TEAM MONEY LINE DOGS...
You track:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> playing 1 unit on all dogs with winning records, and playing 2 units on all dogs with a better record than their opponent.. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Maybe we can keep a thread going & calculate...
Might also be a suggestion to consider all as 1 unit...is there a reason you chose to weigh the
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> and playing 2 units on all dogs with a better record than their opponent..<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
more than the other one?
I have found that with an account at 365, pinny & have noticed that odds at lay107 I can get quite a differential on Hockey Lines (SIA aswell but I cannot recommend playing there as they are shaky).
365 tends to be heavy on the favorites & the dime line at pinny is supreme for hockey...lay 107 also great for Hockey it seems.
Ultimately needing to hit less than 50% of wagers to make money is very appealing to me. Incidentally there is often tremndous value playing ML dogs at 365. I suggest we keep this thread going over the entire season & test these theories...
If you like I will keep a tally in this thread of:
HOME TEAM MONEY LINE DOGS...
You track:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> playing 1 unit on all dogs with winning records, and playing 2 units on all dogs with a better record than their opponent.. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Maybe we can keep a thread going & calculate...
Might also be a suggestion to consider all as 1 unit...is there a reason you chose to weigh the
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> and playing 2 units on all dogs with a better record than their opponent..<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
more than the other one?
yes, im playing all dogs with winning records for 1 unit, and all dogs with records better than opponenst for 2 units.. this is just in theroy, i didnt change my capping one little bit. this is just something that im monitoring, im not monitoring home dogs, you can do that and we will see how these things go.. just some lively discussion and testing mechanical things. i like the dogs with better records than opponents more.. i could however never use a mechanical system only, i value my capping experience too much.. been playing almost daily for 17yrs now... its more about the trends and emotions and momentums of teams, i like betting on teams that are hot and against cold teams, too much to explain here, sorry for rambling..
SSI
You're providing valuable new ideas not rambling. It will be interesting to see how this Moneyline Dog Theory (MLDT) unfolds. You may very well have found a tool to add to your arsenal. Suppose it shows a consistent success. Look down the line and imagine that you have found a play that you feel is a strong fundamental play which also is a MLDT. You would feel even more confident with the play. I know that you are a flat bettor, but this is just one of the ways that one begins to vary their plays. Food for thought.
Good luck and looking forward to following the results.
You're providing valuable new ideas not rambling. It will be interesting to see how this Moneyline Dog Theory (MLDT) unfolds. You may very well have found a tool to add to your arsenal. Suppose it shows a consistent success. Look down the line and imagine that you have found a play that you feel is a strong fundamental play which also is a MLDT. You would feel even more confident with the play. I know that you are a flat bettor, but this is just one of the ways that one begins to vary their plays. Food for thought.
Good luck and looking forward to following the results.
SSI, you always encourage everyone to shop for the best line...
Just to touch on this in relation to ML Dogs, probably better to wait till near game time to play...Would also like to add that 365 has juice ML dogs all the time:
Example:
Kings +175
Blues +175
Bruins +116
They also have Oakland @ +230
Just thought id Chime in...
I started a ML Home dog thread in the handicapping section...
Just to touch on this in relation to ML Dogs, probably better to wait till near game time to play...Would also like to add that 365 has juice ML dogs all the time:
Example:
Kings +175
Blues +175
Bruins +116
They also have Oakland @ +230
Just thought id Chime in...
I started a ML Home dog thread in the handicapping section...
ok ted, monday wasnt so good for our little ML dog check, 0-1 on the 1 unit plays with a push for -1 units, and 0-2 for a -4 units on the 2 unit plays.. runs the 2 day total to 2-5 on the 1 unit plays for -0.8 of a unit and 3-3 +1.4 units on our 2 unit selections, for a total of 5-8 (+0.6 units)..
now i know why i dont really like mechanical systems, it pisses me off terribly when they lose, id rather lose on my own capping ability, oh well, its just an observation. looks like a big card for tonight..
now i know why i dont really like mechanical systems, it pisses me off terribly when they lose, id rather lose on my own capping ability, oh well, its just an observation. looks like a big card for tonight..
