Fresno State -20
I am a bit concerned about the ever-rising price tag tonight, as Fresno State actually opened as a 16' point favorite. Obviously, the general betting public and the oddsmakers remember Hawaii's recent Friday Night TV disaster in an ugly 69-3 loss at Boise State. The Rainbow Warriors are now 0-3 SU/ATS in three road affairs this season where they have had to travel to the mainland. What concerns me about this hefty price tonight is that BOTH teams are a bit desperate. Fresno needs one more outright win to become Bowl eligible. Meanwhile, Hawaii needs 3 wins in their final 4 games to lock up a spot once again in the Hawaii Bowl. However, odds of that happening are not very good when you consider that the Rainbows still have Michigan State and Northwestern from the Big 10 on their late regular season Non-Conference schedule. It is very interesting to me that Fresno would be laying 20 points against a Hawaii team that has won OUTRIGHT the last THREE times these 2 teams have hooked up, including Hawaii's 55-28 romp on the island a year ago. The reason why I am willing to lay this inflated spot is because these two teams HATE each other in what has become a "war of words" from both sides all week long. Fresno would like nothing better than to virtually kill Hawaii's postseason Bowl chances. Of course, there is also the matter of TRIPLE REVENGE. Fresno State got off to a great start this season, which included an easy outright road win at Kansas State. However, they went into a severe slump that included a Friday Night TV loss as Boise State. The good news is the Bulldogs have finally hit their stride in the stretch run. More importantly, they are relatively HEALTHY as far as the injury report is concerned. Tonight, they will be hosting a Hawaii squad that has been downright awful on the road, giving up a grand total of 161 points in those 3 trips to the mainland. The strange thing is that in those 3 road games, the offense which is led by the all-time NCAA Division I-A passing leader Timmy Chang, has generated a grand total of only 52 points in those 3 games combined. If Hawaii fails to generate offense again tonight, they will be blown out by Fresno QB Paul Pinegar who has thrown SIX TD PASSES in the last 2 games combined, together with ZERO interceptions! In last weeks's 52-21 road romp at Rice, the Bulldogs had a 100 yard interception return for touchdown. So far this season, Fresno has allowed opponents' to throw for only 6 touchdowns, while the Fresno secondary has run back FOUR interceptions for touchdowns! One of those picks was returned to the ONE yard line! Hawaii checks in tonight with a wretched defense which is ranked #111 out of 116 Division I-A schools. In the past 3 seasons, Hawaii is a dismal 1-6 ATS against teams with a winning record. In the past 3 seasons, FRESNO HAS COVERED SEVEN IN A ROW when coming off an outright road victory!!! That is called serious momentum.
GOOD LUCK
I am a bit concerned about the ever-rising price tag tonight, as Fresno State actually opened as a 16' point favorite. Obviously, the general betting public and the oddsmakers remember Hawaii's recent Friday Night TV disaster in an ugly 69-3 loss at Boise State. The Rainbow Warriors are now 0-3 SU/ATS in three road affairs this season where they have had to travel to the mainland. What concerns me about this hefty price tonight is that BOTH teams are a bit desperate. Fresno needs one more outright win to become Bowl eligible. Meanwhile, Hawaii needs 3 wins in their final 4 games to lock up a spot once again in the Hawaii Bowl. However, odds of that happening are not very good when you consider that the Rainbows still have Michigan State and Northwestern from the Big 10 on their late regular season Non-Conference schedule. It is very interesting to me that Fresno would be laying 20 points against a Hawaii team that has won OUTRIGHT the last THREE times these 2 teams have hooked up, including Hawaii's 55-28 romp on the island a year ago. The reason why I am willing to lay this inflated spot is because these two teams HATE each other in what has become a "war of words" from both sides all week long. Fresno would like nothing better than to virtually kill Hawaii's postseason Bowl chances. Of course, there is also the matter of TRIPLE REVENGE. Fresno State got off to a great start this season, which included an easy outright road win at Kansas State. However, they went into a severe slump that included a Friday Night TV loss as Boise State. The good news is the Bulldogs have finally hit their stride in the stretch run. More importantly, they are relatively HEALTHY as far as the injury report is concerned. Tonight, they will be hosting a Hawaii squad that has been downright awful on the road, giving up a grand total of 161 points in those 3 trips to the mainland. The strange thing is that in those 3 road games, the offense which is led by the all-time NCAA Division I-A passing leader Timmy Chang, has generated a grand total of only 52 points in those 3 games combined. If Hawaii fails to generate offense again tonight, they will be blown out by Fresno QB Paul Pinegar who has thrown SIX TD PASSES in the last 2 games combined, together with ZERO interceptions! In last weeks's 52-21 road romp at Rice, the Bulldogs had a 100 yard interception return for touchdown. So far this season, Fresno has allowed opponents' to throw for only 6 touchdowns, while the Fresno secondary has run back FOUR interceptions for touchdowns! One of those picks was returned to the ONE yard line! Hawaii checks in tonight with a wretched defense which is ranked #111 out of 116 Division I-A schools. In the past 3 seasons, Hawaii is a dismal 1-6 ATS against teams with a winning record. In the past 3 seasons, FRESNO HAS COVERED SEVEN IN A ROW when coming off an outright road victory!!! That is called serious momentum.
GOOD LUCK
