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Aloha Gang! First, I would like to wish everyone here a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. I worked overtime on this one, as well as, with the other info and insight thread leading up to this game in hopes of sharing the gift of a win with all of you. I hope it results in big $$$$ for everyone.

Ok, with that said, here is your X-Mas gift. Take the HAWAII WARRIORS -10
for a 8 Unit Bowl Redemption GOM.I am on a 2-0 current run, and I am looking to make it 3-0 today. Below are some of the situations facing the Warrior family today, which gives me the confidence that they will get a win and cover in this game with Houston today.

There is alot of information and insights in my other threads which helps to backup my reasonings here. So without anymore delays, Lets Get This Luau Started. Hit it Don Ho!

"Tiny Bubbles." "In the Wine." "Makes me happy, makes me feel fine."

Ok, enough singing. In this game today, the Warriors will come out on fire and it should continue to the last second clicks down. How am I so sure of this. Because first and foremost, that loss last year was simply an embarrassing moment which left a bad taste in the mouths of all the players and Coach Jones especially, all year long. What made it worst, was that it was on National TV. I cannot even begin to tell you how many Christmas's were ruined because of that loss. Hell, that was Hawaii's 1st innaugural bowl game. We call what happened here in Hawaii as, "Making Ass". That is exactly what the Warriors did as they over confident and lacking any motivation in playing the game hard against a talented Tulane squad, which at that time, ended their season on a hot streak. The remaining players before the start of this season, made it one of their priority seasons goals that needed to be achieve. In fact, this goal is posted to remind the guys that last years business has not been completed yet, and I was told it will remain there until it is achieved.

The Seniors have an extra motivation to get it done today, as they do not want to go out as the team that lost the game for the second time. And the underclassmen, do not want to be responsible for losing it twice. They all know that this game will be on National TV and that the whole Nation will be watching as this is the only football game being played today. They I am sure do not want to make ass and get embarrassed on National TV, in their bowl game, on their home field, in front of their family and friends, for the second time. I dont think anyone in Hawaii wants this to happen. Especially Coach Jones, who faced the sharp end of the spear for this loss.

Coach Jones knows that he has to produce wins, especially big wins in these big Nationally Televised games. He knows that people had a problem somewhat with him receiving the salary that he was given, making him the highest paid state employee in Hawaii. His salary dwarfs the Governors and Mayors salaries. He knows what the financial backers want to be done. Wins translate into revenues, big wins translate into bigger revenues. They also result in recognitionl, and that is what he knows they want and that is what needs to be accomplished in order to build the program that he has in mind. Last years lost, cost revenue to the school, create bigger skepticism towards his worth, and set his own goals back. Suffering another Hawaii bowl loss could set off negative chain reaction, and he is determined to prevent this from happening.

The Warriors have a big advantage because this game is played here. This year they are 6-1 at home, and that one loss to Boise St also is something that isnt sitting well with them as that game was also on National TV. That last loss and todays game played here gives the Warriors two additional huge advantage in this game today.

Another situation that worked itself into the mix, is due to this game being played against the University of Houston. I reported in the info thread that Coach Jones is affiliated with the admistrations, as he was once a part of the Universities family. Initially, I felt that all the good will was due to close friendships, which may translate into no motivation by Jones to run up the score or allow Houston to get embarrassed if it looks like it may. But upon further contact with a collegue I found that this wont be the case today as their is for one, a reason why Coach Jones is no longer at Houston. Second, under the current importance facing Coach Jones inregards to a must win today. This is great news that just fuels the fire called motivation to get this one and by any way. It is simply a priority to get a win today.

Ok gang, I know that all of us are familiar with both the abilities of Hawaii, as well as with Houston. We all know that both of them have potent Off and weaker and suspect Defenses. But what I feel will be an advantage for Hawaii is the fact that Houston's star QB of the future, is only a freshman. This Houston's first bowl game in approx 7 years and they have a first year coach who succeeded in his first year in taking last years 3-7 Houston team to a bowl game. These three situations, I see as working in the advantage of the Warriors. Adv. #1- big bowl game led by a first year freshman , who has already confirmed his being overwhelmed by being here in Hawaii. Adv. #2- the Houston team may have no motivation really to play this game as they are simply just happy to be here in Hawaii, and experiencing a once in a lifetime opportunities. I feel, after view several interviews of the Houston players, that it seems only the star players like WR Middleton are really focused on winning this game. This I can understand as he is knows that there will be scouts here and will need to impress. But the same cannot be said about the rest of the team, especially the underclassmen. Adv. #3- Coach Briles is the controller or his teams motivation and energy for each game. But I definately feel that even he is just satisfy to be here. He knows that win or lose today will not tarnish in anyway what he has accomplish this year and with this team. He also feel complacent because he has a future start in Kolb which will just make his future that much brighter. This bowl is not as of importance because of those reasons which are just a win situation for him. Because he is satisfied and complacent, his team will be satisfied and complacent. All this translate into another huge advantage for a hungry Warrior team looking to get back some RESPECT and REDEMPTION. Unfortunately for Houston, they provide a perfect prey to take apart all the while, showcasing Jones high flying potent aerial attack that will definately light it up against this very pourous Houston Defense.

Note: look for Hawaii's run Off to take advantage of Houston's 106th ranked run defense against the run. Remember, Hawaii's Off is not one dimensional as others want you to believe by our low ranking or lack of a running game. It is not because the running game is poor, it is by choice that Jones does not use it. There is a big difference between weak and not utilized. Today, I feel that Jones will use the more running plays as his biggest rb West Keliikipi 6'1 260, returns from an injury. He will pound out some big yards especially in the red zone where the run and shoot off is known to stall. But he will not be alone as Hawaii has 3 speed backs who are running back by committee that are used for screens and draws as well as provide another pass receiver to the already busy receiving corp led by WR Chad Owens who is 2nd in the nation in receptions per game. He is also joined by 4 other WR who all have over 40+ catches for 400+ yards on the year. This is another advantage for Hawaii as their passing off loaded with an abundance of targets for the Warriors QB's to chose at their choice. This is what works in our advantage in scoring early and often, which I see happening making the dd pts seem obsolique.

Thats it for now gang, I will provide more info for those who need more, in this thread. This selection today would not have been on Hawaii as many would expect from me. Hadn't the Warriors lost in last years 1st Hawaii Bowl. If they had won, then this game would have definately been played against them, as they would have definately lacked way less motivation than last years team had for this game today. But they lost , and that is why we are blessed with this big opportunity ,loaded with an abundance of advantages on the Warriors side, as well as Coach Jones need to please everyone, especially his own pride in his high flying off which has been getting more negative responses especially after losses to teams like Boise St. He is determine to get in creating wins as he knows that is the only way to silence his critics. I see the Warriors winning this game by 21 pts or more today. I hope you all will enjoy this Christmas present. Aloha all and good luck. Co-Captain.
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For those who are interested in trends. I have been following this trend by Andy Iskoe-- the 10 Commandments to betting the bowls.

Commandment #1

Thou shalt look to pick the straight up winner of the game.

It states that when chosing a side, do not be worried so much on the line, because since 1991, in all bowl games. The team that won the game SU, also covered the spread approx 88% of the time. It failed at doing this only approx 11% of the time. So, this Commandment is saying that all you need to do is pick the side that you think will win the game SU and if they do, then it has be proven to also cover the spread at a 88% of the time.

In this years bowl games already played, here are the results using this commandment.

Fav 5-0 SU
Fav 4-1 ATS(Boise St. only SU winner not to cover trend)


** I am backing my selection today on this trend, I didnt make my selection base on this trend, I am just using it to make my selection stronger.

Aloha Co-Captain.
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Aloha Co-Captain and Merry Christmas to you. I enjoyed reading your thread of information leading up to this game. I am with you on Hawaii, although I am in at 10.5. Any thoughts on the total (76.5)?
Also, going with Blue +3.5 as a small present to myself purely for the entertainment value. GL today.
 

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Wow Captain, Hawaii by 21 or more? So you are basically saying this will be a blowout.
Well I give you a lot of credit for sticking your neck out there and giving your pick and best of all telling us why. Myself having seen a lot of Hawaii's games this year agree that if they bring their A game, as they did against Alabama, and are emotional and really fired up to play, they should beat this Houston team by 14. The Houston defense is absolutetly horrendous, giving up 424 yds per game. The key will be can Hawaii slow down the Houston running game. They run the ball as much as they throw it, lots of people think they just throw ,throw, and throw.
I agree that this game is all about motivation, who really wants it more. If Houston is just looking at this as a wonderful vacation, with all the distractions, then maybe we will see a Hawaii blowout. Let's hope so!
 

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Another trend which helps in strenghtening my selection is: by Steven Makinen.


This one of his 4 key Factors for Handicapping College Bowl Games.

1. Yards Per Play Statistic: This YPP is a measure of team efficiency, both offensively and defensively. It is stated that usually the team with the highest YPP differential has the ability to control the line of scrimmage and consequently, a great chance of winning and covering.

This are the teams he found to have the strongest YPP differential in 2003: Oklahoma +2.7, USC +2.2, LSU +2.1, Minny +2.0.

These are the bowl teams with the worst YPP differentials this year: Fresno St.-.6, Houston -.3, UCLA -.3, & Georgia Tech-.2


**Again , I didn't use these to get my selection. I am just using them to help to strenghten it. Also , I know that there exist trends and angle for and against my selection. But I will not get into following or searching them out, as I dont necessarily use them anyway. Just thought I mention these.
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Aloha and GL , Co-Captain
 

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-9.5-122 available at Pinnacle or -10 -112 or -10.5-102

worries me a tad seems they are trying to draw in hawaii bettors...
 

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brijames, no it is just a guess. Guesses are just that guess. I did though call in my Oregon St writeup for a Beaver dd pt win. But again it is a guess, I am in no way claivoyant. lol.
 

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I think Hawaii's Bowl game was on November 29th when they played Alabama. Getting a strong win over that SEC club was the peak of their season and beating Houston is not going to compare. I got this feeling in watching the Rainbows against Boise St. They just did not look like the same team that got all jacked up for Alabama. Hawaii knows that no matter what happens here, they can walk away from the season saying that they beat Alabama on national television (ESPN). It's going to be tough for them to prepare for this game with enough intensity to win it in my opinion. Hawaii came into this same bowl game a year ago against a Tulane team that is quite similar to Houston and ended up losing 36-28. That Tulane team had a defense that gave up tons of yards like Houston but Hawaii just could not keep them out of the end zone. I see the same thing happening here. The Cougars will take a lot from the Boise St. film and plan an attack. I have a real problem with a team giving up 45 points in their final game and then laying double digits in their bowl game. It didn't work for Hawaii last year who gave up 40 in their final v. San Diego St. and it didn't work for the Miami Hurricanes who gave up 45 points to Virginia Tech and lost straight up to Ohio St. as double digit favorites. I see it happening again.

For those of you who are going to research this game a bit yourself, you will see Houston giving up 66 to Louisville, 62 to TCU, 45 to Memphis and 42 to Tulane. Don't let that worry you. There have been plenty of bad defenses that have made it to college bowl games and won. The majority of those teams were underdogs and a lot of times they got more than seven points like Houston is here. The Cougars know how to score points. A lot of times, their scoring too fast is what allowed opponents to put up such great numbers and points. You also have to remember that those teams putting up those point totals are from their conference and know Houston very well. Oddsmakers are hoping that those scores scare you into doing something stupid like laying double digits in a college bowl game. History is not on your side when you lay double digits and certainly not with a Hawaii team that is 8-5 on the year. Houston's big strength in this game will be their running attack which puts up 219 yards per game. They can attack a Hawaii defense that gave up 156 yards rushing per game in a pass happy conference. Hawaii had a real problem with the balanced attack of Nevada who is a similar version of this Houston team. Look for the Cougars to have their way on the ground and should things fall apart, they have the ability to use their passing game to come from behind. However, I think their plan attack will be to control the line of scrimmage early on which I think they can accomplish. By doing so and scoring early, they will make Hawaii one dimensional and avoid having to make their run defense an issue.

I say Houston wins straight up.... 35-31
 

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Houston is a live dog. The over looks great.

CC, great call on OSU yesterday. I am afraid you have your "homer" goggles on for this one.

Hawaii will not have much of a crowd to feed on. Only 25k tickets distributed,and Sheraton Bowl officials admit only about 15k will show. There will be some walk-ups, but those figure to be everly split between Houston and Hawaii as they are GIVING AWAY tickets now to military personnel and their dependents. A lot of military personnel have Texas ties.
 

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Sportsavant, for me, anything under 14pts I would lay. I know the history of the ats . But you had a pac 10 historical trend that was pretty strong also and it did not follow suit. I think it was something like 5-14 ats for pac 10 favs, I forget something like that . Maybe someone can provide the accurate ats.

Dam, this one really burned my brain out.
 

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ppeter, when it comes to Hawaii. I treat it with more care and attention. I bank more on them then any other team, because its my strength, I live here. So I always take advantage of my strenth as well as look to strengthen it somehow. I figure, you have to take what you have and not ignore it. I access , as you do , all this first hand knowledge. It is makes more sense to find ways to use it to get you winners. Then it is to try to discredit it, or try to find fault with it. Just doesnt make sense to do that.
 
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Lsu Pete brings up a interesting point on the line of scrimmage as houston is a run first team. I for one do not think Houston will win that battle. Hawaii has not been dominated by running teams this year. Their has been a loss and plenty of time between Hawaii's emotional win against Alabama giving him a chance to wind this team up for a top effort. Last years bowl loss will provide plenty of fodder. I think hawaii will not repeat last years bowl disaster. Houston is the flat satisfied team on vacation in this matchup.
 

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brijames, I am not afraid to put my reasons out there, I feel it bring some legitimacy to how I got my selection. In games out of your area, it is easy to get information and stats via the internet, but you cannot unless your there or you know the players, know exactly how they see this game or how they feel about it. Or more importantly, maybe something outside of the game is going on that may affect his play. For me that information like this is very valuable. As everything else is just assuming or a guess. You cannot be for sure how they are feeling or if they are motivated.

Thats why in my selection ,I explain to everyone first hand on how the players are feeling , or what is it that is going on that may affect the way they play. Also things that I know will act as motivating factors for the players and also for Hawaii's coach. How can I provide this , cause I am here, that is my strength and advantage to me having people associated with them, including myself. I relate it to someone knowing a close friend who works for a stock broker and shares with you a hot tip, you otherwise would not really know about.

Your advantage is that I am willing to share this close accurate info with you. As you would not have a clue exactly how a player or players feel. So take it as a gift, cause I dont and wont do it all the time. People question me sometimes to much. So no sense , you know what I mean right. But still, it doesnt make anything a guarantee. It just eliminates alot of the guessing and assuming. Good Luck. Co-Captain.
 

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All the services are on Houston as reported by Dawgman, and you know what that means.
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Now what is everyone going to do. HMMMM! Watch out, don't get hurt.
 

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Captain

Merry Christmas to you. Great thread as always. We won't be on the same side today but it's all good. Good luck to you today and enjoy the game. Regardless of the outcome, the game should be highly entertaining and last at least 4 hours.
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lsu, and captain as always AWESOME reads. captain i'm going to respectfully disagree with you on a couple points:

#1 briles is a very good, strong disciplinarian, that has a HUGE following in the state of texas! much bigger than mack brown's. he is somewhat of a legend in texas -- trust me he will have these kids motivated; all eyes from texas will be watching -- he will not want to let them down. not to mention being a 10 1/2 pt dog doesn't show a whole lot of respect.

#2 as always games are won/lost in the trenches. and hous ol outweighs ha dl by 'bout 50lbs per guy -- they should be able to establish a strong run, game which will ease any opening jitters kolb might have -- then, you have huge problems he is the real deal. respectfully, chang is not.


is laboy playing???

gl
 

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CC,

Is RB Wes Keliikipi playing today? If saw him sitting down in regular street clothes on practice Sunday over at the St. Louis practice field. If he plays, thats a huge plus for the Warriors. Have a safe and happy Merry Christmas.


Aloha and Good Luck
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no Wes

no Laboy

Isaac Sopoanga will NOT start.

Heres hoping for a close, high scoring Hawaii win.
 

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more additional motivation for the Def:

I got tired of my computer keep acting up so I didnt add alot of things in with the writeup, so please bear with me as I get them all in.

OK, the Hawaii defensive players are all sick and tired of hearing the comments on ESPN and local news about how LaBoy was the Def. and that without him they will stuggle. Yes Travis LaBoy lost is a big , but he was not the Def. All the talk, is pissing the Def off that they are planning to go out and prove that his absents wont make a bit of difference. They are motivated because Travis was heard saying something to someone, because their are some who feel that he through his actions only thinks of himself. He is only concerned about him and his Pro career, thats why he did not put to much into his school work. Some feel that he let them down. Now with Espn all praising him and then commenting that the defense especially at the line will hurt without him. Well that just pissed , wont say who, but the main guys off. Isaac Sopoaga and Lance Samuseva is the heart and soul of the D line, not Travis. It is because those two constantly draw double and sometimes triple coverage that Travis can make big plays. DL Sopoaga will be drafted way before LaBoy bank on it. Others like DB captain and All Wac player Hyrum Peters, is motivated also by all the hoopla over LaBoy.

What people may not know, is this is not the first time that Travis has done something to cause him to miss games. The players know how good he is, but they get pissed when he gets away with things, and then now gets all the praise on TV. This is a team and a close one at that. They want to go out there today and show that they wasnt at all affected by his absense.

In fact the dlinemen have a bet on who is going to get to the QB the most today. They have incentive today and that is awesome.

But in addition, the DLineman has four Senior who will want to have a big and dominating game today as the pro scouts will be watching. If that doesnt get you motivated to leave everything on the field, I dont know what will. These four linemen all rotate with eachother they are Sopoaga, Samuseva , Ala, Fuga. Lui Fuga was starting over all the other three lineman but injuries have allowed the others to take the top spot, but he is a good one also.
 

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