Have any early leans? WEEK 5 version

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I meant to say "Betting against teams that were past -7 and were Away".

I wish I had that NFL channel, instead of just ESPN.
 

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like these totals: cowboys over, buffalo over, bengals over, sf under, broncos under, jets under....
 

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I'm starting to like the Patriots bet. Broncos struggled at the beginning with the Cowboys, but won. Patriots are a stronger team than the Cowboys. Broncos fought awful teams to increase thier stats.

I leaning on the Patriots now.
 

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Two plays that I am am heavily leaning towards are:

Pats -3
Browns + 6

I was on the Broncos last week and they came through big for me.
the Cowboys are a different team than the Pats and while the Broncos have looked great I think the Pats are in their groove and will win this game. The Broncos will match up good with any team that relies heavily on the rushing attack offensively. Since the Broncos have an IMPROVED secondary and two solid CB's they are able to take stack the box against mediocre or below average passing teams and leave the secondary for single man coverage. they wnat you to beat them passing if you can. the Pats have the ability 2 do so and they have a balanced offense with enough weapons to win the match up. Dallas was not 100 % and Romo and Delhomme have decided to compete for most Picks thrown this year.
Brady & co. will not have many games with this cheap a price . Good spot to back them.

The Browns...... this was IMO one of the top three worst teams in the league as of the first three weeks. They caught the Bengals in a letdown spot and almost won. anderson getting the start is a huge improvement for the offense and will help stretch the field.
The Browns have infused some life and now have a new look offense. With quinn passing and Aged Lewis rushing there was no real threat to any DC.
quinn was only throwing short passes and trouble with that.
this was like in grade school when you would play baseball and the kid from Abu Dhabi who just transferred to the schoold and was a year and a half younger than everyone else came to bat. Everyone moves in and the outfield is almost near the infield. Just no Respect. beat me if you can.

well now Harrison will get the majority of the carries and he has young freash legs. couple that with Anderson's passing ability and you now have a balanced offense. If only they can put a memo to the OC to get edwards some passes.

the bills are a mess since they have so many injuries . Keep an eye on the injury report to see if either CB is back and as well the health of both lines.
 

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I think the Raiders and Giants game is not an easy play either way.

16 is just too much to lay especailly with Manning's current status. On the flip side it is too difficult to back the raiders. J. Russell sucks . Maybe he can compete with Ryan Leaf but he was rushed into the role too quick. Now McFadden is hurt. where will the offense come from?

I think this line is inflated since the Raiders are sooooo bad but again better games to choose from.
 

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If Manning is playing I think the Giants are a perfect team to use in a teaser
 

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I think the Raiders and Giants game is not an easy play either way.

16 is just too much to lay especailly with Manning's current status. On the flip side it is too difficult to back the raiders. J. Russell sucks . Maybe he can compete with Ryan Leaf but he was rushed into the role too quick. Now McFadden is hurt. where will the offense come from?

I think this line is inflated since the Raiders are sooooo bad but again better games to choose from.

id say giants team total over at any number is a better choice then laying 16.5 ...thats pure suicide in nfl anytime can come a backdoor cover..almost happened against KC where i had NY.
 

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Took a couple early picks:

NE/Denver UNDER 41
Patriots -3
Bengals/Ravens UNDER 42
 

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I like NYG first half, but I would tease the raiders up to 22.5.
I think if NY gets off to a 20+ point lead ( which will be tough because they love to eat the clock and Oakland D just isnt that shabby) will put in David Carr and severely limit the giants to go up 30+, With a strong chance for a backdoor cover.
 

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I have one big play which is Philly at home -12.. Tampa is below average with offense and defense.. They played a tough road game against Wash and now have to play a rested Philly squad on the road. Give Andy an extra week of preparation and he almost always covers..
 

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Leans..

I see alot of value in the lines this week. I have strong leans/potential plays on Wash, Clev, Cinci, KC, Seattle and Atlanta. Won't post plays till Fri or Sat..
 

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Read the second or third article in my "opening line thread"
The Favs came in strong last week and killed the books on straight bets, teasers and worse the parlays.

This week you can be sure the lines will be inflated 1-3 extra points. I assume that the -16 line is set to avoid below -10 teasers and as well the perception and reality of this team . Gabbana has great advice indicating the safer bet may be the TT .

Clay betting ....i like your first two plays but the Baltimore game could go over with those two offenses. Any reason on the under ?
 

MOST OF YOU DON'T FUCKING LEARN
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San Fran....
Atlanta gets exposed on the road again by a top 5 defense that will have their way running the ball down atlantas shitty run defense and shitty defense in general
 

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San Fran....
Atlanta gets exposed on the road again by a top 5 defense that will have their way running the ball down atlantas shitty run defense and shitty defense in general

i was surprised the sf line was that low to open up
 

Shalom- the cousin of Freddie Hoiberg
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i was surprised the sf line was that low to open up

Atl in general = over-rated. Agree with you their defense is weak especially their run D. I think SF covers the number and was looking to play the over.
 

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Only had 1 play last week and the dog won outright (Broncos)

This week I like...

Redskins +3.5
Broncos +3
Vikings -9.5
 

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