Handicapping the NBA

[ESQAJM]

I was betting the NBA before most of you were born. I was betting on George Mikan when he was making his hook shots from the pivot. I stopped betting the game after a while when I realized it was uncappable. Team A would beat team B on Monday nite by 15 points and when they played them on Friday nite team B would beat team A by 15 points. How do you handicap that?

I would say that most handicappers in here do so by intuition and feel and don't do any real handicapping such as is done in other sports. I started betting a few games in the playoffs this year and because I really know very little about the NBA and don't follow the teams all year, I didn't make any of my own picks, but piggybacked the hot cappers. As soon as I started following a capper it was the kiss of death for him. I must have lost 20 out of 25 bets doing this and then I remembered why I stopped betting the NBA and realized that these guys were only guessing at their picks.

I started following Wildemu ( who seems to be the only consisted capper on the board) and won some money back. But as I started watching the ESPN shows in which ex NBA players gave their analysis of the games and how they felt the upcoming games would be played, I realized that this was a good source of handicapping information.

These are all guys that played in the NbA for many years and are fairly knowledgable and articulate. I started watching for phrases and statements which would indicate how the upcoming game would be played.

For example, after the bad loss in the 1st game and before Sunday's game I heard a commentator tell a story about how Rasheed Wallace had a 4 word conversation with Joe Dumars in an elevator. Dumars said "Shoot more" and Wallace said "I will". I also heard someone else say that for the second game Detroit will come out fast and score so they will not fall behind to SA as their defense was not stopping SA and that they must get Rasheed Wallace more involved in the game.

This indicated several things to me. (1) The second game will be a much higher scoring game than the first game, thus the Over bet was the play for the first half and the game. (2) There was a prop on Rasheed Wallace of 22 1/2 for points, assists and rebounds. I went Over on that prop and was lucky to win it even though Wallace sat out a good portion of the 4th qtr with 5 fouls.

This is not an isolated incident. I got many such pieces of information from the ESPN analysts and have stopped piggybacking any capper on this board. Since I've been doing this I have been hitting at a 65-70% winning pace.

The bottom line is that these guys have more basketball knowledge and experience than anyone on this board will ever have, so listen carefully to what they say. They will steer you to winning bets.
ESQAJM

 

[poopah]

Keep listening to those guys and you will be dead broke. Why don't you also mention that every body thought this was going to be a tough and close game therefore you should pick Detroit +6, If you don't know how to handicapp games with your own opinion heavily involved you are going to lose in the long run simple as that. Don't think the NBA is uncappapble cause you can't cap it, Just like any other sport if live breathe and die NBA basketball and you understand players and situations and coaches and you have capping talent you can very easily beat the NBA.

 

[tatehill2000]

NBA is easy to beat,,,,, I beat it every year in TOTALS,,, and this last year with sides,,,

I did it with a stable sound formula based on statistics found on any board,,,,

good luck to you ESQ and only bet what you can afford to lose

tater

 

[ESQAJM]

Poopah: I agree with you that those BB analysts don't know how to pick winners, although almost everyone I watched had SA Sunday. Greg Anthony was the only one who liked Detroit. The handicapping information is the little tidbits you get from their conversations with each other when they talk about the game, matchups, what the coaches said, etc. It is up to the watcher to pull out what is relevant and what's not. Obviously this method will not work for the regular NBA season games as these games are not analyzed in such detail as the playoffs are.

So far its working for me as I'm almost back to recovering all my losses incurred in following the top cappers on this board.
ESQAJM

 

[DonDollars]

ESQAJM- I am not sure if you serious believe what you are saying or not. Did you say that you now listen to the ESPN analysts and use their information to hit 65%-70% of your bets? That sounds absurd. This feat is unprecedented in the handicapping world.....I am not saying that you are wrong.....I am just saying that I have a VERY VERY VERY hard time believing this. Maybe you have a special ability to interpret the information that the analysts are talking about. I am intriqued to see how this works. Can you PLEASE do everyone on this wonderful website a HUGE favor?

Please post some selections that you get by listening to these NBA analysts talk about the games. I am curious to see if you can hit at the 60% range.....moreless the 65%-70%. Wow! Best of luck. I cannot wait to check this out.

$$$ Don Dollars $$$

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

E,

It's nice of you to provide us with a 65% + system when we have only a handful of games remaining.

Just be sure, since you have the winners, that you share them with the board prior to tipoff.

Myself, and many others will be looking for you next season and be sure to enlighten the forum of your Game 3 and beyond selections.

:drink:

 

[SALTHEITAL]

You mention somethin' 'bout " guessing "...

..in your opening post.


I've managed to hit between 70%-80% cappin' hoops, just after the Super

Bowl.


....guess it's best I continue flippin' coins! lol


Good Luck.


Sal

 

[bigplay]

Haven't bet the NBA in decades (maybe a couple plays a year), but this reminded me of seeing Don Nelson in a local news interview. In the early 80's Denver was run and gun team every night. They were coming to Milw., it was an interview from the court about 30 min. prior to game time. He said "we can run with anyone" . I had my bet in before the interview was over.

The # was something like 240 and it hit around 270
GL to all

 

[ESQAJM]

BIGPLAY: Your example is exactly the type of comment I meant. Although I thought I gave a good example with my comments for game 2 I don't think the guys in here are getting my point. To get that info you have to spend a lot of time listening to the ESPN analysts. My profession requires me to have an analytical mind and I can pull this info from their conversations. That is my way of handicapping.

DADDY: I only started doing this about three weeks ago. Therefore my sample is very small (10 out of 14 to be exact) Would it have worked for all the playoff games? Maybe not, maybe it would have. I do not pick up info on every game, but I will post every piece of info I pick up and how I interpret it for the remaining games of the playoffs and what my bets will be based on this info.
Don't look for me in the next NBA season as I said before it will not work for the regular season. I will only be back for the playoffs in 2006.

DOLLARS: Just remember my percentage is only on a small sample, not the whole season or even the entire playoffs.

ESQAJM

 

[bigplay]

I have been sports betting for nearly 30 years. For the last 18 or so I have started capping cappers.



Bucsfan67 in bases is a V. solid capper

 

[t3a]

Greg Anthony was the only one who liked Detroit.

Steven A. Moron liked Detroit I believe. Barkley sometimes has some good points at half time though so there is some validity to hearing some of these guys

 

[bigplay]

Off the subject a little, When U have a ?able play on a ncaa football game just check out Lee Corso on ESPN. It's pretty simple if Corso likes your play and his sidekick likes the other side it's a no play.!!!!! High%

 

[ESQAJM]

BIGPLAY: fFor the last 3-4 years I have been capping the cappers in the NFL which is 90% of my betting action for the year. I haven't had a losing season since I started doing this. I believe that there are certain people that have a knack or know how to cap football better than myself, so why not follow them. I'm not ashamed of it.
ESQAJM

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

I have been sports betting for nearly 30 years. For the last 18 or so I have started capping cappers.



Bucsfan67 in bases is a V. solid capper

bucsfan67 is a blessing to everyone wise enough to read his baseball thread. I'm sure he is also a cash register for other sports.

:chest:

 

[maverick2112]

No disrespect...........but I have heard from many bookmakers over the years that the worst cappers are actual guys who played the game. They think they know the game cause they played it and when it comes to betting it the suck. This would seem to go against your feeling that just because guys are articualte and played the game they can handicap. As far as last night over ........one missed bucket and that conversation Sheed had with Dumars suddenly means nothing...........

 

[ESQAJM]

Tip-off for Game 3

After reviewing my record I noticed one thing that I didn't make clear in my earlier posts. In the 14 games I bet using this system, not 1 bet was on the winner of the game. They were all Under/Overs and props. Of course the commentators and coaches don't know who is going to win the game and will they cover, so their guesses are meaningless. But there is info out there whether the game will be fast paced or slow paced, whether defense will be stressed or not. This is the info that I cull out of the TV interviews and use in my betting decisions.

For instance this AM I was watching an interview with Larry Brown on ESPN. (Interviews with coaches usually are the best source of the information that I am looking for) Besides giving the usual BS about how the team must raise their lever of play, etc. he made a statement. "We have to move the ball more". This indicates to me that Detroit will pass the ball around looking for the right shot and everyone will get a "touch". This will lead to a slower pace in the game and thus a lower scoring game. My bets will be Under in the 1st half and Under for the game.
ESQAJM

 

[bigplay]

I have had winning years on my own, but I agree their are guys out there who really know their $hit.



Thanks for the info ESQAJM

 

[DonDollars]

What were the OVER/UNDERS for games 1, 2, and 3?

 

[FairWarning]

Game 1 total was 176
Game 2 total was 170.5

 

[bigplay]

After reviewing my record I noticed one thing that I didn't make clear in my earlier posts. In the 14 games I bet using this system, not 1 bet was on the winner of the game. They were all Under/Overs and props. Of course the commentators and coaches don't know who is going to win the game and will they cover, so their guesses are meaningless. But there is info out there whether the game will be fast paced or slow paced, whether defense will be stressed or not. This is the info that I cull out of the TV interviews and use in my betting decisions.

For instance this AM I was watching an interview with Larry Brown on ESPN. (Interviews with coaches usually are the best source of the information that I am looking for) Besides giving the usual BS about how the team must raise their lever of play, etc. he made a statement. "We have to move the ball more". This indicates to me that Detroit will pass the ball around looking for the right shot and everyone will get a "touch". This will lead to a slower pace in the game and thus a lower scoring game. My bets will be Under in the 1st half and Under for the game.
ESQAJM

Thanks for the winner ESQAJM.. Your hitting 1000% for me. Good luck on the 2nd half.