Hey guys! I am looking for some ideas on handicapping college hoops. I have several tools that I use for NFL and am fairly successful. I am not opposed to hard work or reading. I am currently working with Sagarin ratings and Pointwise predictions looking for something that works. Any suggestions are appreciated. I know following certain guys on here can be profitable to a point but I would like to be able to cap my own games and if successful contribute to the forum. Thanks for any help you can give me.
Bruno, it will be tough for you to find any college cappers. Most here are just followers and dont do the work to pick games. Just look for the popular thread that everybody seems to follow daily.
I myself, use power ratings and watch line moves. Just rememeber the oddsmakers know and have accesss to a lot more info then us bettors get, so realize that they basically do the majority of the work for you when they put out a line. If you think a game should be -10 and they only make the game -3. you had better start digging as to why your number is so far away from theirs, because chances are pretty good they are right and you are wrong.
The biggest piece of advice i can give you, is dont get caught up in all the buzz about the public is on this or the public is on that. The truth is every single one of us who gambles is the public and just because a person hangs out on a gambling forum, that doesnt somehow remove them from being part of the public. There is no mystery group out there called the public, its all of us.
good luck
I myself, use power ratings and watch line moves. Just rememeber the oddsmakers know and have accesss to a lot more info then us bettors get, so realize that they basically do the majority of the work for you when they put out a line. If you think a game should be -10 and they only make the game -3. you had better start digging as to why your number is so far away from theirs, because chances are pretty good they are right and you are wrong.
The biggest piece of advice i can give you, is dont get caught up in all the buzz about the public is on this or the public is on that. The truth is every single one of us who gambles is the public and just because a person hangs out on a gambling forum, that doesnt somehow remove them from being part of the public. There is no mystery group out there called the public, its all of us.
good luck
This site has been helpful for me for various team stats and rankings: http://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/
I use their home advantage and SOS power ratings, and some team stats like off/def efficiency, possessions per game, etc. Putting it all together is the tricky part.
I use their home advantage and SOS power ratings, and some team stats like off/def efficiency, possessions per game, etc. Putting it all together is the tricky part.
Ok here's what I do. Go into scoresandodds.com in am and look at early moves AND write down the teams where lines move in there favor. Go to covers and cap each game using strength of schedule, home vs. away rec w pts for and against, revenge factor, and who they play next, etc. then go back to scoresandodds 30-45 mins b4 7pm see what the moves are again and see where public sits. Then fire
Bruno. Handicapping is not ABC. There are different ways. I use match-ups, shooting % off and def. Rebounding off and def. Look at who they played. Some teams power numbers are based on games against weak teams that they have played. Lots of 8-2 teams go into conference play and are lucky to win 50%.
Couple thoughts here from an angle of what not to do (based on experience).
#1 If you can't name at least 3 players on both teams without looking at ESPN boxscores you should not bet on the game
#2 Do not bet on Niagara vs Manhattan or Brown vs Yale just because they are on Friday night
#3 Do not care about rankings. They are meaningless
#4 Home court is a HUGE advantage in college basketball and sets up a lot of upsets/beat downs of spreads that look funny
#5 Public percentages are useless
#6 Go to the school websites and read their pre-game programs. Lots and lots of information are put in to those that you do not get just reading articles online.
#7 Go to school forums and read what real fans of the teams are saying. They will give you an inside look in to the game without a betting angle. Lots of matchups discussed, coaching strategies, etc.
#8 Pray
#1 If you can't name at least 3 players on both teams without looking at ESPN boxscores you should not bet on the game
#2 Do not bet on Niagara vs Manhattan or Brown vs Yale just because they are on Friday night
#3 Do not care about rankings. They are meaningless
#4 Home court is a HUGE advantage in college basketball and sets up a lot of upsets/beat downs of spreads that look funny
#5 Public percentages are useless
#6 Go to the school websites and read their pre-game programs. Lots and lots of information are put in to those that you do not get just reading articles online.
#7 Go to school forums and read what real fans of the teams are saying. They will give you an inside look in to the game without a betting angle. Lots of matchups discussed, coaching strategies, etc.
#8 Pray
I usually wait until I've had a half dozen rumplemintz, then review the team mascot names and pick my favorite team from there. Sometimes the team colors have some impact. Last I go to the school website and if one teams cheer leaders are hotter than the other, that's definitely another angle to consider. If two of these three factors come into play, then I bet on that team.
No matter what you do don't follow my ass.
GL
No matter what you do don't follow my ass.
GL
Bruno,
If you concentrate and put a lot of time and effort into one or two conferences only you can get to know and have as much info as the book does. Read and research as much as you can from all the sites the the forum members have suggested. Do your due diligence.
Like any other job or profession you have to put the hardwork and time into it to be successful.
Money management and patience is a tremndous key to success. Establish yourself a set of rules that you stick by religiously. Example.... if you have not capped a game and did your due diligence on that game then do not wager a unit or any portion of a unit on it. Note* there will be another game tommorrow that you can do your due diligence on. Example..when you are running cold and can't pick a winner to save your life.....do not increase your wagers (chasing), what you should to is decrease the amount of units and the amount of games you make a play on.
This is very important.... while you are learning & teaching yourself how to cap make very very small wagers and take it slow. GLTU
If you concentrate and put a lot of time and effort into one or two conferences only you can get to know and have as much info as the book does. Read and research as much as you can from all the sites the the forum members have suggested. Do your due diligence.
Like any other job or profession you have to put the hardwork and time into it to be successful.
Money management and patience is a tremndous key to success. Establish yourself a set of rules that you stick by religiously. Example.... if you have not capped a game and did your due diligence on that game then do not wager a unit or any portion of a unit on it. Note* there will be another game tommorrow that you can do your due diligence on. Example..when you are running cold and can't pick a winner to save your life.....do not increase your wagers (chasing), what you should to is decrease the amount of units and the amount of games you make a play on.
This is very important.... while you are learning & teaching yourself how to cap make very very small wagers and take it slow. GLTU
