Guru's Golden Picks: CFL Wk 1

AFLGuru · Jun 26, 2007

I'm going to be a lot more into the discussion of these games this year than last. There's a lot to be gained in this league.

BC (-2) @ Toronto (2 units -110)
Like the Lions here to start the season strong. I think +160 on them to win the West is also theft. Toronto never really got it rolling on offense last year, and I think at some point, time is going to really catch up to Allen. Bishop's a stiff in case he does go down.

Winnipeg (+2) @ Edmonton (2 units -110)
More of a play AGAINST Edmonton than ON Winnipeg. Bombers are a trendy choice in the East. Edmonton is starting with 20 fresh faces from last year's team. Wrong team is favored here, IMO.

BC/Tor over 48 (4 units -110)
Winnipeg/Edmonton over 47 (4 units -110)

I know, these are big time plays early in the season. With the new kick return rules, everyone seems to think scoring is going up. Consider this in a league where low-mid 50s is the norm (though last year was down), I think these are both steal lines.

BC +7.5/Win +11.5/Cal pk (9.5 pt teaser, 2 units -120)
Really just wanted to find some way to get Calgary down to pk. I don't think they're losing their opener to lowly Hamilton at home, but crazier stuff has happened. Hopefully this teaser gets that far first.

Futures
As I alluded to before, I'm taking BC +160 to win the West for max units. I've also got 2 units on Montreal to win the East at +220 and 2 units on BC to win it all at +300.

Good luck this season. Let's go make some cash.

AFLGuru · Jun 26, 2007

Just some food for thought... Last season was so weird that Toronto averaged under 40 ppg total. Nobody else in the CFL for the 4 years prior to it averaged fewer than 47. Those are pre-rule changes. Now that blocks in the side are legal, it will create much better field position and drives that were FGs or singles last year may be TDs this year.

scottw · Jun 26, 2007

With you on BC -2 and WIN +2, and also got MON -3, and same game teaser CAL -3/over 46.

Legend-I-Aint · Jun 26, 2007

Is there a good web page that has a ticker to follow the action on this afternoon?

AFLGuru · Jun 26, 2007

I'll have to check if the CFL scoreboard is still good or not... I'll let you know Thursday afternoon.

Woody0 · Jun 26, 2007

I like BC which I took from Bet365/Bowmans as it opened at -1. They still have the best number at -2.5/-115, while The Greek is -4. Obviously early money is on BC.

Glad you like the over 48 as I was leaning that way but hadn't pulled the trigger yet.

Bunge · Jun 26, 2007

Always take the over in the CFL!

:dancefool

Legend-I-Aint · Jun 27, 2007

AFLGuru said:
I'll have to check if the CFL scoreboard is still good or not... I'll let you know Thursday afternoon.

Send me a web site if you can find one.......thanks!

CHOPTALK · Jun 27, 2007

Alright, some more plays! Yes

arty:

I assume you are 0-0 for 0 right now.

Snets · Jun 27, 2007

Damn AFl - you should have waited on that BC ttl starting to drop.

I bought some at Under 48 last night....

Both offences have not had much time together and both teams have new offensive co-ords. BC in particular has not looked sharp on offence they are having trouble communicating with the sidelines and the 2 offensive co-ordinator system :WTF: is not going to work imo .

Toronto has yet to decide who their QB is so practise time with 1st unit is also going to limited.

Lastly you throw two of the best defensive co-ords at the two offences that are basically playing their first game I like the under.

Fo the guy who said CFL overs are money, you may want to check you info, never mind I'lll show you.....

COMBINED O-U last three years in CFL: FYI this is slightly skewed by last year, - The second set is last yrs.

Kick returns defiantely hampered scoring, but the fact that 7 out of 8 teams have new offensive co-ords has me looking under early.

BC 23-30......7-11
Ham 22-31....7-11
CGY 25-27....8-10
Ed 26-25......9-8
Win 24-30.....4-14
Tor 16-37......4-13
Mon 24-30......5-13
Sask 25-29.....9-9
________________
TTL 185 - 239 - thats 44% overs
06 ttls 53- 89 - 37.3% overs
04-05 ttls 132-150 47% previous two yrs.

GL with your plays BC -2 is a nice price see they jumped to 4 yesterday and looks like you are on the rights die of the line moves.

Ahhhh football

GL snets

AFLGuru · Jun 27, 2007

Snets--

I'm not so concerned about past performances in terms of what went over and what went under. The average game totals (per Vegas) were lined MUCH higher the previous two years than this year will be, at least out of the blocks. Last year we saw a whole bunch of numbers in the mid-high 50s in response to a couple different teams averaging about 58 ppg for the '05 season.

I remember the first time I saw 44 as a total in a CFL... I almost flipped (and then promptly lost because Toronto was involved).

Yes, the offensive coordinators have all changed, but there has been a TON of player movement on the defensive side of the ball. All of the QBs are back (save possibly Allen), and I think all of them have at least 1-2 receivers that have been with them for years.

Bottom line: I think these totals are lined too low. At least until proven otherwise, I would figure the game average this year to land around 52 or so. That being said, anything under 49 is really a must-play for me.

We'll see how it pans out. Good luck to you.

GreenValley · Jun 27, 2007

Right back at you AFL and Snets

I just finished reading this post and felt compelled to add my 2 cents worth. This is strictly a FYI situation for those who do take into consideration prior results. I wanted to pass on a couple of tidbits from my FWIW files:

Bet TORONTO Under in the first four weeks of the season
5-27 under L8Y including 0-4 LY
Note: 0-7 Under as home dog in same span

Bet MONTREAL Under the first two weeks of the season
4-18 under the L11Y including 0-2 LY
Note: Unfortunately their opponent in week one is 20-7 Over the first four weeks of the season. Caution

Hope this is of some help to those out there that read this forum, because that is my only intention.

Respetfully,
Green Valley

AFLGuru · Jun 27, 2007

Thanks for the trends Green Valley. I typically don't buy into these trends because I don't think you ever have two situations that are EXACTLY the same to track data, but these are always worthwhile to examine.

Snets · Jun 27, 2007

AFL - the history of over/unders was for the guy who posted always take the over in the CFL....sorry should put it in his thread.

my comments on offences not being ready was for you.....as far as i can see from TSN only 2 starters are gone from each defence. Looks like Damon Allen will start for the argos but he is on a short leash according to pinball (radio interview this afternoon) & the radio guys here are already replaceing dickenson with peirce if he plays like he did last week in Ed.

LOL - radio guys always gotta mix it up.

once again gl with your plays

Lets have a winning season!

AFLGuru · Jun 27, 2007

Y'all will notice that I'm not shy about playing lots and lots of games and lots and lots of plays. Keep in mind that for me, 1 AFL unit is about equivalent to 4 CFL units... so this is really still just playing around for me.

Montreal (+3.5)/Mon-Sas o44 (6.5 pt teaser, 1 unit -120)
Mon-Sas o43.5/Cal (-3) (7 pt teaser, 1 unit -130)

A respected capper across the street is playing the Montreal/Saskatchewan over, and I'm not shy about playing overs to start the season. I may play them all for the first few weeks until things pan out.

CFL win totals and season props look like they're going to be up at Olympic at some point... I'll be paying close attention.

AFLGuru · Jun 27, 2007

Edmonton's defense was imploded, and deservedly so. We'll see how this pans out. Good luck to you this week.

PassTheBuck · Jun 27, 2007

AFLGuru said:
Just some food for thought... Last season was so weird that Toronto averaged under 40 ppg total. Nobody else in the CFL for the 4 years prior to it averaged fewer than 47. Those are pre-rule changes. Now that blocks in the side are legal, it will create much better field position and drives that were FGs or singles last year may be TDs this year.

I would agree with you there, for sure. Bashir Livingston is one of the premier return men in the league, and the new rules will most certainly benefit him. The only problem is that Toronto's offence is so inept. A lot of people still believe in Damon Allen, but I really think he is done. Last year he took most of the snaps, and as you said, the offence struggled. This year I expect him to be worse. Until Toronto goes to Mike McMahon, I really don't see their offensive production improving very much.

AFLGuru · Jun 27, 2007

Allen looked done last year. This year, I don't expect much better, though he can't miss many more games than he did last year.

The amazing part about Toronto is that they won 10 games...