Guru's Golden Picks: CFL Week 9.1

[AFLGuru]

ATS: 10-7 (+12.08 units)
Totals: 8-4 (+5.26 units)
Team Totals: 9-4 (+5.53 units)
Moneylines: 8-8 (+4.12 units)
Props: 0-2 (-2 units)
Teasers: 1-1 (+0.50 unit)
1st half/Quarter: 14-9 (+4.90 units)
2nd half: 11-7 (+11.22 units)
Overall: 61-42 (+41.61 units)

This is where we sit at the current moment... I'm not going to be in town Thursday and Friday, thus I sincerely doubt that I'll play anything this week... and to be honest, nothing really jumps out at me... Here are my thoughts based on the current lines...

Montreal (-7.5) vs. Calgary o/u 58: Under this total seems to be the play here... Calgary's offense is beginning to sputter a bit IMO, and Montreal's defense has finally kicked it up a notch. I think that the Alouettes are going to continue rolling this week, but 7.5 against my favorite cover team in this league isn't working for me... That being said, I don't really have that much faith in this Calgary team after the lackluster performance of fumbleitus last week.... The problem with a total like this is that people are finally starting to give Calgary's offense the respect they deserve, and the number is probably 5-6 points higher now than it would have been if this game was 3 weeks ago. No real firm take on this either way, with probably the stronger lean on under than anything else.

Ottawa (-2.5) @ Winnepeg o/u 54: Another tricky game. Will the really Bomber team please stand up? With Glenn at QB, they've dropped 50+ on Montreal, and most recently I believe it was 40+ on Hamilton (not looking at the final score off hand, but it was a ton of points, especially in the 2nd half). But Hamilton's horrible... HORRIBLE. I mean Grand Rapids in the AFL horrible... and that game with Montreal had every making of a big upset after the Bombers stuck close to Edmonton the week prior. Meanwhile, is this the real Renegade team either? I mean are these guys REALLY on top of the Eastern powers, Toronto and Montreal at this point? I guess based off of form this season, the Renegades are the play here, but this line looks fishy. It really seems as though the books are begging on Ottawa wagers... and perhaps if this line gets as low as 1, I'll bite on Ottawa. I can't see betting over in this game and I'd prefer at least 56 on the under... Perhaps some form of a teaser here would do, but I'm not too particularly interested in taking a shot against Glenn at this point either way. Both teams are riding high on momentum, and this has the makings to be one of the better games of the season from a very unexpected source.

I'm just skipping this BC/Hamilton game. I hate Hamilton and won't hear any argument for laying 19.5 in any game between any two teams in this league, nor will I hear any arguments about betting on the Ti-Cats.

Edmonton (-6.5) vs. Toronto o/u 52: I'd be venturing to take the TD start in this one, as I think that Toronto game against Montreal last week was a bit of a farce, considering that this will be a heathlier Allen this week. Though the offense hit a wall against the Alouettes defense, I don't think that's what we're seeing against Edmonton. By the time Allen hit the field, the running game was out of the question, as they were playing catch up the entire game. Edmonton has done little to impress me this year, and I think we could very well see the Eskimos fall in this one. I'm starting to buy into the fact that this Toronto team is still amongst the cream of the CFL despite early season problems against BC... but throw out those games and this Toronto looks a hell of a lot better on paper. This is generous... Under is probably also a decent play, as Ricky Ray hasn't shown a whole hell of a lot this season...

That being said, perhaps my only play of the week...

Toronto (+6.5) @ Edmonton (2 units -102)

 

[theKRACKON]

Great info as usual AFL Helps alot to know what your take is thanks.

 

[AFLGuru]

Okay, I'll come back and say some words about this BC/Hamilton game even though it ridiculously pisses me off. There's no doubt in my mind that BC is scoring at least 5 TDs in this game, meaning 40 isn't out of the question. The problem here is that the implied team total is either 36.5 or 37 for BC, which is just simply a ton. Will they fly over that number? Probably... BC just rarely fails to score 30+ at home. Dickenson appears healthy once again, while the Ti-Cats are in shambles after being disgraced at Winnepeg. Slightly short week and a nasty road trip for the Ti-Cats really just spells disaster, but like I said with Winnepeg when they were 19.5 point dogs to Edmonton... no one in this league should be getting 3 TDs of a head start. But that being said, I'm not betting on Hamilton anymore... Team has eaten so much of my money since week 1 it's not even funny. But again, it really wouldn't surprise me if the Ti-Cats came with Khari Jones for the duration of the game and somehow kept this one close, even in BC. They won't win, and I don't even think they'll be close, but they're probably going to stay within this lofty number. People betting now tend to agree... anything under 18 is pushing it though...

 

[oneoutofthreeaintbad]

For what its worth..... BC HC Buono hasn't covered as a DD favorite with BC in six situations. There's also the extra motivation for Hamilton in beating - or in this case trying to beat - an undefeated team

That aside....

BC's defensive coordinator is Dave Ritchie, Khari Jones' ex HC with Winnipeg. I think that's a big advantage to BC....but 20 points?

 

[JimL04]

Toronto is now at +7 so I am guessing you really like them now.

 

[AFLGuru]

JimL... don't know how much you know about the CFL and betting, and by no means am I trying to downplay you whatsoever, but the number 7 has significantly less importance in CFL than, say the NFL or NCAAF, as there is the added way to score in the single, and teams concede safeties left and right... not to mention the fact that the games are generally much higher scoring in the CFL than the NFL, making for what would be very weird looking NFL final scores (37-31 is just as likely as 37-30 in actuality in the NFL, right?)

So the line change didn't do much for me, especially since I saw -110 juice at Pinnacle. I'd rather give the extra half point at the -102 right now.

 

[JohnMolson]

Wheels coming off for Ottawa tonight.Bombers look inpressive for the 2nd week in a row

 

[AFLGuru]

I see my Stamps pulled off the big big upset in Montreal Thursday night. Time to hit the fade train with these guys real soon, starting next week @ Toronto. Especially if the Argos get beaten tonight, this is gonna be a real friendly line for me against the Stamps next week.

I also see that the Bombers just crushed the Renegades and that BC rolled Hamilton once again. (Even though wait a sec... it says 38-17 Ottawa on cfl.ca.... is that wrong?)

Can anyone Sharky, Scott, or anyone else give me a brief recap of a few things in particular that I would have been listening out for this weekend...

1) Dave Dickenson? Completely healthy now?
2) Was this a game Montreal should have won in general terms? And was it what the Stamps offense did or what the Alouette defense didn't do that led to so many points? From what it sounds, this is like the Alouette team prior to the Saskatchewan game.
3) Is Glenn completely healthy now for the Bombers? Does this team really looked primed to go on a run here? I know they've beaten two of the crappier teams in the CFL, but is there really hope in Bomber-land now?
4) On the same token, was it what Ottawa's defense gave up, or what Winnipeg went out and got on their own? It seems to me from looking at this from afar that the Bombers have become a more disciplined team in terms of taking dumb penalties and mental mistakes. That's one of the biggest causes for concern right now for the Riders and Ti-Cats... too many mental mistakes.

Thanks for the help in advance.

Couple more for this evening...

Toronto (+7) @ Edmonton (1 unit -105)
Toronto (ml) @ Edmonton (1 unit +245)
Edmonton under 29 (1.5 units +100)
Toronto (+4) @ Edmonton 1st half (1 unit -102)

Also remember that I had...

Toronto (+6.5) @ Edmonton (2 units -102)

 

[AFLGuru]

Looking at the schedule, the Bombers are in PRIME position to make a huge run right here, playing the Riders twice, Hamilton, and Ottawa... though 3 of these 4 are on the road, they can easily take 3 out of 4 and put themselves in a nice spot to make a playoff push with a bastard part of the schedule coming up to end the season... (@ Montreal, BC, Toronto, @ BC, and Calgary)

Bombers need all of the pennies in the piggy bank now, because there might not be a win in those last 5 games of the season to propel them into the postseason. Calgary's fire hurts them dramatically, even though 3rd place in the west will certainly be good enough, as the Ti-Cats I believe to be officially done, 8 points back already.

 

[HPark1]

1. Dickenson should be fine. After the injury he did an interview on the sideline and seemed optimistic about next week. Arm was in a sling though...

2. Montreal defense reverted back to earlier form but you have to give a lot of credit to Mr. Burris. His decision making was flawless (shocking from him) and he was able to make alot of plays with his feet. It was a ridiculous shoot out. For no special teams of defensive TD's it was simply all offense. Calgary's defense is porous. The space they were giving recievers on 2nd and long was disturbing. Montreal would just run a 10 yard curl and the corner would still be 2-3 yards off when the ball was delivered. Obviously the corners have no confidence in their abilities. imo both these teams cannot be trusted.

3. Glenn is basically 100%. I believe this team will make a run in the 2nd half. Team has a good morale and they do have the talent. They are as good as Calgary/Montreal/Toronto. Great special teams is large in the CFL. Schedule is also favorable.

4. Joseph threw a couple picks which led directly to TD's. Last play of the game in fact was returned for a TD to make the score look worse. The 75 TD pass allowed in the final seconds of the first half was pretty much unacceptable. Combination of both I guess. Winnipeg was able to pass for over 350 yards, to lazy to check but that must be a season high.

 

[AFLGuru]

Thanks HP. Bombers team might catch some fire, but that ending to the schedule is brutal. Simply brutal. Hope I get a nice number on Toronto next week at home... maybe 3.5 or something like that. That'll be a pounce play. Toronto should have no problem beating this Calgary team at home now that all of the eyes are open. Burris shouldn't be able to put together back to back weeks like that.

But you know, I feel a lot better about "knowing" this Calgary team. I just think I've got a better feel for them than any other team in the CFL and it's paying dividends so far. Starting catching fire on this offense in the first showdown with the Lions and so far so good the rest of the way. Burris has really had the gang on offense clicking, and though this team that was dubbed as a team with o/us in the low to mid 50s earlier in the season, I don't think we see a number lower than 55 starting next week against the Argos, particularly in Allen looks as good this week as he did in the 2nd half against the Alouettes last week.

Perhaps isn't just that the Alouettes are struggling on defense... Perhaps it's just that their defense is that freakin' bad. I might Mike Bishop struggled against them, but he's Mike Bishop. Allen looked solid in the latter parts of the game, and I think if he's healthy tonight, Edmonton's in big trouble. This team has done nothing to impress me thus far this season, and this smells like an upset to me.

Once again, thanks HP.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[AFLGuru]

Sorry this is late...

Toronto/Edmonton over 35 total rushes (1.5 units -110)
Toronto to have more net rushing yards (1 unit +135)
Toronto/Edmonton under 55 (2 units -110)

Logic here is that Toronto's defense is good enough to keep Ricky Ray from going nuts. I think that John Avery has things going for him right now, and that he can continue his running wild on the Eskimoes defense. All of these plays really work hand in hand and I really expect to see a nice return on this game.

Best of luck.

 

[AFLGuru]

This has been a horrible game... just how I like it...

Still 0-0, Edmonton winning the battle of field position the entire first quarter. Edmonton's offense is terrible right now... actually, both offenses are terrible right now. Doesn't look like anyone wants to win this game, but at some point, Edmonton's going to turn this field position into something. But again, still 0-0 a couple minutes into the 2nd quarter.

 

[AFLGuru]

Well this first half was simply awesome. Couldn't ask for anything more, though the end of the half kinda gives me the chills about Edmonton coming out and romping in the 2nd half. 7-1 Argonauts at the half, needing a ton of points to beat me and the Argos defense looks really really good. Incredible half by the Argos despite fighting the field position battle all half.

Toronto (+7) @ Edmonton (1 unit -105)
Toronto (ml) @ Edmonton (1 unit +245)
Edmonton under 29 (1.5 units +100)
Toronto (+4) @ Edmonton 1st half (1 unit -102)
Toronto (+6.5) @ Edmonton (2 units -102)
Toronto/Edmonton over 35 total rushes (1.5 units -110)
Toronto to have more net rushing yards (1 unit +135)
Toronto/Edmonton under 55 (2 units -110)

 

[AFLGuru]

Edmonton/Toronto over 26.5 2nd half (2 units -110)
Edmonton (-4) vs. Toronto 2nd half (1 unit -110)

 

[Budworth22]

Guru, I am going to Walmart if You want to go.

 

[AFLGuru]

Nah, just was there a few hours ago... Eskimoes with a solid drive but back to back time counts left the drive to end in 3 instead of 7. 7-4 Argos getting their first chance of the 2nd half

 

[AFLGuru]

21-4 Argonauts

 

[Budworth22]

21-18 Toronto, 1:58 left.Cmon Edmonton, 1 more score.

 

[AFLGuru]

what are you talking about?... no more scores...

much rather have the ml than the 2nd half...