Guru's Golden Picks: CFL Recovery Week 12

[AFLGuru]

Alright, fortunately last week is a distant memory... Perhaps this is the start of the crash and burn I probably have coming to me, but we'll see. I think I was outcapped in two of the three games I bet this week, and that really disturbs me, even moreso than the fact that I lost the one I capped right in horrific fashion. But we'll trudge on anyway...

BC (-6.5) @ Ottawa o/u 55: First question is obvious. Dave Dickinson, Casey "I got beat out by Ty Gunn in my senior year at TCU" Printers, or Buck Pierce? I'm fairly sure the answer will be Printers, which makes me scared to even think about this line. BC isn't even close to the same team without Dickinson at the helm, but it does seem that this Ottawa team might be coming back to earth again after getting killed at Montreal last week. I really just can't see taking this line either way, mostly because I'm now 12 weeks into the CFL season and still haven't figured out Ottawa at all. The only team I really can't get a decent hold on yet, but I don't think I'm the only one. If Dickinson is playing, I'll play on BC for a bit. If not, under might be the play, but it's nothing I'm jumping at too hard. I think if Dickinson isn't playing, BC under the implied 30.5 or 31 is a good bet. If he is, perhaps the better bet would be Ottawa under the implied 25 or so.

Edmonton (-7.5) vs. Calgary o/u 54: I'll tell you right now, I'm going after this one again. I got screwed yesterday, and Friday is payback time. I capped it right then and I believe I'm capping it right now. Calgary's offense figured something out at the end of the game on Monday. Something clicked. Both teams were picking up small injuries left and right. I'd be less inclined to take Calgary in this one because the field in Edmonton has been in crappy shape lately and might continue that way, plus I think Ricky Ray and gang are gonna come out and try to put the clamps down early again. Gimme the exact same game as yesterday, except Edmonton, get your asses in the end zone in the first half and Calgary: Don't drop TDs.

Edmonton/Calgary over 54 (3 units -105)

Toronto (-9) vs. Hamilton o/u 53: Watching this game last week makes me really believe that you're going to see this o/u rise and this number on Toronto fall. It's payback time. No way in hell Toronto loses this game, and I think once again, the clamps are going to be laid early by the home side, and not loosened late in the game. I was outcapped last week based off of the problems with going into Hamilton on Labor Day... this week the number is shorter than it should be by a point or two, and I'll gladly take any number under 10 against this Hamilton team on the road against any playoff team. Hamilton under the implied 22.5 looks solid to me, as I can't see Toronto's defense getting torched again... not at home anyway.

Riders (-3) @ Winnepeg o/u 54: Will the real Rider team please stand up? I won't be fooled again in this game. Not at all. This is an over game again though. I don't know if there will be 71 points in it, but with Marcus Crandell at the helm, perhaps the Riders are poised to make a real run at the playoffs, especially with Calgary staring a 2nd straight loss to Edmonton in the face. The Riders know any hope of catching Edmonton for a home game in the playoffs started last week by beating the Bombers and must continue. It could be tricky, but it sure seems like this is a short number and the Riders get it done here.

HP: Quick question for you... Is there some sort of trend about "payback" games either a week or two down the line that I should know before I pull the trigger on anything else this week?

 

[sharky99]

GL this week Guru, hope it's a good one, been away mostly and have not seen to much to jump on lately, but initially I think this is the right side depending on weather...etc... might take this one also, GL:toast:

 

[HPark1]

about the payback angle, don't recall the labour day matchups always playing a return game the next week, or even the week after. Looking at the official site it appears only Edmonton and Calgary do the back to back so not much to go on.


In fascinating news from the Argo team site;
-------------------------------
BACK TO BACK - GET YOUR MONEY BACK OFFER! - Exclusive Offer to all Hamilton Tiger-Cat Fans!

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OFFER VALID: Wednesday September 7th - Saturday September 10th, 2005

(Valid only for 500 level seating. Maximum four tickets per person, On-line purchase only; subject to availability not valid with any other offer)

Please note: Refunds on credit card purchases will be processed automatically through Ticketmaster
--------------------------------

500 level is waay up there and they usually don't get too many people (if any!) up there anyways. Still I don't like the karma aspect of it, they are asking for it. Toronto will probably win but I don't trust them to cover 8/9 points, they always seem to play ugly games at home.

Lost 20-27 vs. BC
Won 27-26 vs. Sas (deserved to lose, overcame big deficit late)
Won 34-27 vs. Win (Winnipeg was in it the whole way)
Lost 10-18 vs. Mon (Bishop started yes but still ugly all around)
Won 25-16 vs. Cal (reliable Cal FG kicker missed game winning attempt with under a min to go and Levingston returns for a TD [ridiculous should have kneeled] to make the final score look a lot more favourable)

So basically their biggest win was a 7 pt margin against the 2nd worst team in the league. Team cannot be trusted to win by double digits.


gl this week Guru

 

[AFLGuru]

Offense looked real good against Hamilton's crappy defense, it was the Toronto defense that was MIA for a change. I expect this week to revert back to form for the Argos... some game played in the mid to high 40s where the Argos win comfortably enough (but with my luck get backdoored in the end).

As for this guarantee, I only remember the Predators doing this type of promotion once. We were playing our 2nd biggest rivals at home (old Florida Bobcats team) and it was the last game of the regular season. The Bobcats were horrible, but they beat us two weeks before which could have just about locked up a home playoff game. We knew going into the game that night at home against the Bobcats that a win and we were hosting a game in the first round. A loss and we were going to have to travel to Tampa for round 1 of the playoffs. The owner guaranteed victory to the point where anyone who bought a lower bowl ticket for the game would get the chance to buy a first round playoff ticket half price... if we won, you got the ticket for the first playoff game. If we lost, you'd get your money refunded for the playoff ticket and get a lower bowl seat and bus trip out to Tampa the next week. Turns out we won the game and won it by like 45 points, taking the owner off the hook, but it was a hell of a promotion that got the team sparked... Of course, we lost the next week in the playoffs, but it was still a hell of a game against Florida.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[Vancouverfan]

Printers is supposedly on the shelf for the next few weeks with a bad shoulder.. This game will either be Dickenson or Pierce.. Dickenson wants to play but BC coach Buono isn't sold on him starting yet with a bad shoulder (non-throwing) for fear of him taking a big hit and not being able to protect himself when he falls.. If Dickenson starts I will take BC - the points,, if not,, definitely gonna stay away from this one..

 

[MarkieMark+]

Offense looked real good against Hamilton's crappy defense, it was the Toronto defense that was MIA for a change. I expect this week to revert back to form for the Argos... some game played in the mid to high 40s where the Argos win comfortably enough (but with my luck get backdoored in the end).

As for this guarantee, I only remember the Predators doing this type of promotion once. We were playing our 2nd biggest rivals at home (old Florida Bobcats team) and it was the last game of the regular season. The Bobcats were horrible, but they beat us two weeks before which could have just about locked up a home playoff game. We knew going into the game that night at home against the Bobcats that a win and we were hosting a game in the first round. A loss and we were going to have to travel to Tampa for round 1 of the playoffs. The owner guaranteed victory to the point where anyone who bought a lower bowl ticket for the game would get the chance to buy a first round playoff ticket half price... if we won, you got the ticket for the first playoff game. If we lost, you'd get your money refunded for the playoff ticket and get a lower bowl seat and bus trip out to Tampa the next week. Turns out we won the game and won it by like 45 points, taking the owner off the hook, but it was a hell of a promotion that got the team sparked... Of course, we lost the next week in the playoffs, but it was still a hell of a game against Florida.

--AFLGuru:toast:

HUH? Am I reading this correctly? Are you saying TORONTO'S Offense looked real good against HAMILTON'S crappy defense? I must respectfully say - What game were you watching? Allen was 18 for 34 for a paltry 237 yards (very low by CFL standards), with 2 INT'S and 2 lost fumbles. Hamilton's "crappy" defense dominated Toronto's offensive line as Allen was under pressure for most of the game. Hamilton's tradition is DEFENSE and they have finally found their identity again.
Playing in Toronto will give the Argos an advantage and I think they will win on Saturday, but 9 points is WAY TOO MANY. I expect this to be another close one with the Argos winning by a score of something like 29 - 25.

MM

 

[AFLGuru]

Mark--

You're probably correct. To answer the question of what game I was watching, it obviously wasn't this one. All I got on this game were the livescore updates. Didn't even get to catch most of the radio broadcast. What I saw was the final result, and a Toronto team that put up 30 points for the first time in quite some time. Though Allen's numbers weren't great (and I did notice that), it seemed to me that they were coming up with the play when they needed to (except at the end of the game when they were faced with like 3rd and 34... which effectively ended it). Also, though the unofficial stats might have been wrong, I think Toronto only picked up 2 offensive penalties in the entire game, something that I usually look at for how mentally into a game a team is.

It also really seems to me that Hamilton has fed off of their crowd, winning this close game both of the past two weeks... but this game isn't at home anymore... Now they're going into Toronto, a place where the Argos play quite good football (though possibly their worst game of the year was played at home against Montreal about a month ago). I still think the Argos roll in this one as much as the Argos can roll by... Keep in mind that they could have rolled their way to a 15 point lead and get backdoored as well... any time there's a number over a TD, I'm afraid that the backdoor is going to be wide open in the 4th quarter.

Thanks for your input MM. I'll keep this in mind before pulling the trigger again this week.

 

[AFLGuru]

Alright, I pulled the trigger on the rest of these bets after hearing the news that the weather in Edmonton was crappy... I still like my stance, but it's a annoying knowing that I probably could have gotten some of those point totals reduced, or better lines just waiting. But regardless, I'm still going after this one with both barrels.

By the way, this is probably going to be the last week I post here the way I have. It's too annoying having to go to page 3 to find my thread on a post I made yesterday afternoon. You'll find me across the street with the new kids on the block. I'll continue reading in on others and chiming in, but to see two pages of bullcrap threads by people who are 97% degenerates with no real clue what was going on in the Raiders/Patsies game last night, craving action (and probably 3% of the people out there are cappers worth listening to) is too much for me now. I won't bury my own selections amongst all of this crapola anymore. So at least until the new kids on the block's site gets too crowded, that's where you'll find me at...

Already have...

Edmonton/Calgary over 54 (3 units -105)

Also adding...

Calgary over 23.5 (2 units -110)
Edmonton over 30.5 (2 units -110)
Edmonton/Calgary over 27 1H (2.5 units -105)
Edmonton/Calgary over 10.5 1Q (2 units +111)

That's probably all... for the night. Best of luck.

 

[EinsteinSys]

AFLGuru thanks for your posts. Been reading them off an on for the past couple of months. Don't know much about the Canadian league so you've been very helpful. Had the B.C. Lions yesterday on a few teasers hooked up with the NFL. Looks Like I'll go with Toronto on a few teasers again with the NFL.

BTW, how do they score 1 point? And is it common for teams to take a safety when they're backed up near their endzone? I saw that yesterday on the B.C. game. They said so and so "conceded". The only access I have to games is from the CFL's website.

Good luck on your picks this week.

 

[AFLGuru]

Einstein--

One point singles are scored most typically on missed FGs and punts. Kicks that go through the end zone are worth one point and the other team gets the ball on the 35 yard line. Often times, a kick returner will elect to let the ball go over his head into the end zone, where he will field it and sit on it to "concede" a one point single and take the ball on the 35 for field position.

About safeties, yes, teams will concede safeties all the time. When a team is backed up inside its own 10 or so, a team will often elect to give up 2 points and the ball then to punt and give the opposing team the ball already in FG range. Most of the time this makes sense, but also often, after conceding a safety, the opposing team marches the length of the field anyway and ends up getting 5 or 9 points on the possession.

 

[sharky99]

GL tonight on your plays GURU

 

[AFLGuru]

Here we go again... Edmonton defender drops a perfect Henry Burris TD pass to him and all the field position leads to 3 freakin' Edmonton points... ridiculous.

 

[AFLGuru]

And now I've got Jason Gesser playing quarterback for the Stamps...

3-3 Stamps on the move to start the 2nd

 

[AFLGuru]

Jason Gesser is about a million times better than Tee Martin and Neelon Greene are... 3 for 3 and a Stamps TD... Burris hurt his non-throwing hand.

 

[AFLGuru]

Boy you don't know how glad I am that I'm leaving for work in about 30 minutes... this game is sickening me. Three drives deep into the opposition's territory have netted me a grand total of 6 points... And the 30 yard TD, paired with Calgary not taking a safety in the shadow of their own goalposts in the 1st quarter that led to the Edmonton time eating FG drive.

I'm not saying I should have hit this o/u in the first half, but I should be a hell of a lot closer than I am here at the 3 minute warning. 10-3 with Edmonton around midfield.

 

[AFLGuru]

Edmonton sucks. They deserve to lose this game and they deserved to lose the game @ Calgary. 2nd Ricky Ray interception. I hope they lose this game and get what they deserve, but Calgary's offense hasn't done enough to make me believe that they can hold onto this lead that they hopefully are about to extend.

 

[JohnMolson]

Esks are a joke..on their home field..pitiful:monsters-

 

[AFLGuru]

This whole game is a joke. Calgary has the ball inside the Eskies 20, and another fucking FG instead of a TD. 13-3 and it should be at least 16-10....

 

[JohnMolson]

Ray has no time to throw..the OLine is a mess..might have to take the pts with the Stamps in the 2nd half Edmonton usually takes care of business on the Friday after labour day but this tonight is a total debacle:monsters-

 

[AFLGuru]

John--

I'm all set to jump on the Eskies in the 2nd half if Calgary doesn't put this in the end zone... assuming the number is less than 10. This is the type of game that the Eskies take advantage of Calgary not putting them away early. I see your point, but Calgary just has done nothing to impress me either.

13-3 at the half after another missed FG.... Unfuckingbelievable.