Couple general things about these picks before I go on... Vegas got gunshy after getting burned by overs and traps this week. That being said, a lot of these "trap" teams are at home, and they've adjusted the lines accordingly. That leaves us with some lopsided numbers that my system was throwing a massive green flag at when Orlando opened a pick 'em as did Philly.
Orlando (-2, now -3) @ Chicago (4 units -105): Preds hit the road again after the embarassing loss at Dallas. Here's what you need to know about this game. Raymond Philyaw is likely out for the game, meaning it's Todd Hammel vs. the Preds. This line closes at Preds -8, which is far too many, but it's where it's ending up unless Philyaw plays. Even if he does play, this Chicago team is clearly a shell of its old self, with two pretty bigs, but two pretty bad losses as well. You don't need me ranting about the Preds defense any more than I already do... You know the drill... It's hard to get to 50 on this defense, and it's hard for this offense to score 50... That being said...
Orlando @ Chicago under 101.5 (4 units... added one -105): Possibly the worst set line on the board to be honest with you. Both of these defenses are solid. Is Vegas still looking at this 66-65 Chicago @ Dallas game? I don't understand it at all. I really don't. With Philyaw not playing, it's up to Todd Hammel to get to 40 on the Preds to have ANY chance of reaching this number. I believe this'll close around 93 or so, where it probably should have opened. I had to double take on this number a couple times before pulling the trigger... fortunately, it didn't move when I was done double-taking... currently at 101, obviously still solid there.
Philadelphia (-2) vs. Dallas (3 units -105): Sorry ladies and gents... I got them at a pick 'em and they're now -4.5... 4.5 is a lousy number. I'd say this is okay for a smaller play until 5.5 or 6. This Philly team isn't as good as Vegas still makes them sound, but neither is Dallas... this game simply pisses me off. Tony Graziani is due for a game where he unloads 70 on someone, and Dallas' secondary might be the right answer, as Dallas on the road is 0-1, while 3-0 at the friendly confines of home. Philly's gonna win this, it's just a matter of by how many.
Arizona @ New York under 113 (2 units, -105): A small play on this under because of Shredrick Bonner. No one knows how good he's gonna look coming back. Aaron Garcia can still drop 70 on anyone, though it hasn't happened yet this year. Vegas got gunshy with this number after resetting the highest game 3 times this week. To be honest, 113 is a bit ridiculous any time Arizona is involved. Bonner will shoot it out, but Bonner also knows how to play in tough environments. Take the crowd out of these games... I believe he'll be successful in his return at doing this for awhile... The 2nd half already scares me a bit, but for 2 units, 66-45 is an under game...
Las Vegas @ Nashville over 90.5 (1 unit, +115): As explained before, Clint Dolezel might be back in the lineup this week for the Gladiators. Nashville plays solid defense as does Las Vegas, but with Dolezel back and Leon Murray looking better by the week, not only do I think that Nashville wins this game... as I hoped they were big dogs... guess we're not so fortunate this time... but that they can put 55 on the board for the first time in their young history. Wake up the ghosts of Kats teams past in this one. I think you're going to see Pat Sperdeuto smell blood early with onsiders, which could make the first half very interesting to say the least. Vegas needs a win in the worst way to keep up with... *sigh*.... LA... that still hurts to say... in the west, with the Saberkittens eventually going to turn it on... and since their next game is @ Orlando, I'm very scared... very, very scared, that should Orlando falter in this one that it's 3-3 for us after starting 3-0....
Lines are moving fast again... just heed my advice about the lines and you'll be fine. However, if you want the stats on me, it's 9-2 against the opening line and 7-3-1 against the closing line... so if that's any indication, maybe you should keep betting all these teams... just know that I've got the parameters set on each line.
