GURU....grabbing that +3.5 home doggie NOLES?

[Dawoofdaddy]

I dont like either side here, but not often seeing Noles home doggie.

 

[AFLGuru]

Not betting the game... but yes, considering the string of wide rights, lefts, and blocks... 3.5 is a great number, especially in the Doak

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

How is X Lee looking in practices?

 

[AFLGuru]

So far so good. He's definitely won the spot over Weatherford... Reports have him trying to leave the pocket too quickly instead of just dropping back, going through reads and throwing the ball. His first instinct is to run. Charlie Ward's first instinct was to run as well... Hopefully Lee will get used to be a "passer" at some point.

Receivers also aren't very good and haven't helped any in Spring games... Don't have the exact stats in front of me but Lee went something like 8-13 for 95 yards a TD and a pick in a scrimmage against the #1 defense a few days ago. Apparently the pick was a deflected pass. He also ran 5 times (1 sack) for 30 some odd yards.

Lee's been gaining more consistency in summer practices of late, as they've much better than his first outing of the season... 5-17 with 2 picks...

So nothing spectacular, but signs of improvement are there... just hope it's enough for Miami in about a month's time. This line will probably close at FSU +1.5 or +2... just enough so if Miami's up 2 at the end of the game and FSU's kicker comes on that FSU backers will be sweating more than usual in this situation... Same old, same old for the Noles... Just a different name trying to kick the ball.

 

[Mr.Smith]

All of the money coming in on Miami amuses me. There is nothing like fading people who are betting a game based on past results which have little impact on the current one. FSU +3.5 is a 55%+ play, I'm convinced of that.

I expect FSU to win the game and possibly by 10 or more points

 

[ElIguana]

FSU vs. Miami game is always a DOG FIGHT, and usually a low-scoring affair. Dog & UNDER look like solid plays at this point. Gotta love a Monday night college football game, too!

 

[Mr.Smith]

it definately should be a close game. a VERY close game would be no surprise. I have it in the back of my mind that FSU may get this one done and win by a decent margin. No one should expect it, but its possible.

Miami-FSU games are not always close. Sometimes even when the matchup appears very tight on paper, one team blasts the other. It has happened both ways.

I'll predict FSU 24 Miami 10. Of course its a lot more likely to be 17-16 either way, but I shall go out on a limb here.

 

[Mr.Smith]

while they lose some experience without Sexton in the line-up ( and this does hurt) Sexton is not a good passer and is a statue in the pocket for Miami to come and hit and Miami would have been all over him.

Lee is mobile and far more talented than Sexton. Sexton was a minor recruit, maybe a favor to his dad. Lee is a 5 star blue chip prospect, a true FSU QB. He's inexperienced, but so is Miamis QB.

Lee will be able to run his way out of some trouble. He wont put up huge numbers in such a tough first game but FSU is not losing anything by having Sexton out. The 2 starters out on defense hurt, but FSU has plenty of blue chippers to fill in holes on defense.

Line should be FSU -3, which it was coincidentally but has been bet all the way back to FSU +3. I grabbed FSU +4.5 and +4 yesterday. Those are gone, but may re-appear.

Bookies got it right opening at FSU -3 , bettors are getting it wrong.

 

[AFLGuru]

it definately should be a close game. a VERY close game would be no surprise. I have it in the back of my mind that FSU may get this one done and win by a decent margin. No one should expect it, but its possible.

Miami-FSU games are not always close. Sometimes even when the matchup appears very tight on paper, one team blasts the other. It has happened both ways.

I'll predict FSU 24 Miami 10. Of course its a lot more likely to be 17-16 either way, but I shall go out on a limb here.

From your mouth to the college football gods' ears my friend. Scalp 'em Seminoles... Can't wait to start the F^ck Mi-am-i! chant...

 

[Willye]

f--k fsu xavier will realize like many other why he did grow up a canes fan and wish he would of went there........... :fballch3:

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Not betting the game... but yes, considering the string of wide rights, lefts, and blocks... 3.5 is a great number, especially in the Doak

Does this tell us you like the Canes but don't want to play vs. your home squad?

 

[AlwaysKeen]

the value has definitely swung on the side of FSU at +3.5...

 

[AFLGuru]

Woof... I guess I really did make it sound like if I was betting I'd bet on Miami...

#1, I'd never bet against the Noles. Not to say I wouldn't recommend betting against them, but I'd never actually put money against my school. I feel like this for all of the teams that I've grown to love. Though this rarely gets the better of me in terms of actually betting ON my team in bad spots, I won't pull the trigger against them either... ever (I did it once last year in the AFL and it was the sickest feeling of my betting career even though I won... guess it was BECAUSE I won...). Still a fan first, thus making me a novice bettor on most who have no team allegiances or check them at the gambling door.

#2, as far as the game... If I were betting, I'd take the 3.5 points. As I mentioned before in another thread, I don't think that Miami is in any better shape than FSU is, with the possible exception of Antonio Cromartie causing us to start 2 untested corners instead of one and one in the nickel and dime packages.

#3, I won't take the Noles this season I don't believe, as the three times I bet on FSU last year (@ Syracuse, @ Maryland, and @ Wake Forest), we ended up in horrible spots... And the one time I recommended betting against us was when we lost to UF last year... so I just get a sick feeling any time I even think about betting on a Seminoles game.

Hope you didn't misconstrue me as a backer of Miami in this game, and it has absolutely nothing to do with bias. Objectively speaking, I believe this line looks like it hasn't accounted for HFA at all. Miami isn't a TD better than FSU is on neutral ground, and if the two happen to hook up in the ACC Championship game with the same two teams, you'll see that apparent in the line.

Value is on the Noles +3.5, so everyone can root on another Noles 2 point loss due to wide right... maybe they'll come up short this year. Never done that before against Miami. Last year was Blocked I, so why not this year be short?

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[Ego74]

FSU vs. Miami game is always a DOG FIGHT, and usually a low-scoring affair. Dog & UNDER look like solid plays at this point. Gotta love a Monday night college football game, too!

yep, i'll be looking closely at that total also defenses will definately be ahead of the offenses early on

 

[AFLGuru]

Warning everyone to be careful about the under in the this game with the total being so low... It's not that these offenses are THAT bad or that the defenses are THAT good. It's the combination thereof, along with a possibly explosive special teams game that will leave lots of short fields, which even the worst of offenses can capitalize on... Just some food for thought.

 

[Mr.Smith]

I already took FSU, but just to illustrate the point, can anyone explain why FSU would be an underdog here?

Miami really wasnt very good last year. They lost to Va Tech and Clemson at home, a good Miami team would have buried those two. They lost to NORTH CAROLINA on the road. Ouch. That is just sad. Larry Coker has not demonstated any ability to win with his players. He won with inherited players but not his own so far.

Too much focus on perceived FSU problems. What about Miami? Starting a QB with zippo experience on the road in a huge game. They also lost their tailbacks ( both) and fullback. They have no experience at WR either. New QB, new backfield, new WR's all on TV on the road against a nasty FSU defense.

Any of you boys want to keep laying 3.5 or higher on Miami, thank you. I will gladly buy up FSU as a home dog here.

:howdy:

 

[Willye]

the facts man is back
wr's arent new at all their actually very experienced, half back is semi experienced and upgraded this year and alot of people think the qb is a upgrade over last year i do but traveling to doak under the lights is a big test one big thing also is miami has one of the best ol's in the entire country and one of the best tight end's in the country which doesnt hurt...

facts man is out....

 

[AlwaysKeen]

good point guru about the under...seen some low totals blown up by a couple of turnovers...

 

[AFLGuru]

One I'm trying to figure out is why FSU is an 8.5 dog to UF... I figured 6 at absolute most. Rivalry game will guaranteed be close, certainly within 8.5 one would like to think.

FSU's better at the QB position this year than they've been in the last 4 years too... but no one seems to believe so on here.

FSU's "off the field" problems are getting blown out of proportion, agreed. But the only guy not playing in the Miami game to date is Antonio Cromartie. Noles are at worst in the same shape, likely better with Lee than they were with Sexton. So the team that the pollsters ranked #4-#5 in the nation with Wyatt and Cro in the lineup is now all of a sudden 3.5 points worse AT HOME than the # I believe 10 team in the nation??? Cro being out doesn't make FSU that much worse... I agree that #4 is way overrated, but being in the top 10 isn't overrated, at least until we see them play a game.... and top 10 teams aren't 3.5 point dogs to anyone at home.

Told you though.... no sweat covering this number as long as it comes down to wide right again. This is a slam dunk if I've ever seen one based on history... everyone thinks because Miami "owns" FSU the past 5 years that they'll cover the 3.5? Hell, anything more than 3 is a farce with the history of this rivalry...

 

[AlwaysKeen]

am thinking Xaiver Lee will be pretty good...