GreenThumbRacing: Weds 9/16 Kentucky Downs

[GreenThumbRacing]

13 races on the wonderful turf course, big purses. Top horses,trainers,jockeys. A great day of racing for sure.


I'm on a current two day winning streak, unlike other handicappers I do update all my bets & daily totals. I do think it's a farce when people post picks, then don't tell you if they are playing with real money. Anyone can just post picks, then not post their results.
Prof Factor updates his plays

 

[GreenThumbRacing]

Analysis of Race 1: 6F

1- only race on turf was awful, just broke MDN for 25K at AP. Taking quite a rise in class for low profile trainer. Emigh comes to ride, looks like an outsider.

2- broke MDN first out on the turf at ELP, then went into a GRIII at AP not a poor effort in the race. Big contender here. Court rides him again. First time lasix today.

3- won at first asking, was bet at $3.80/1 closed well. Three works since race.

4- won at first asking at AP with only a 64 speed figure, has been gelded since the race. Been off for 55 days. Could be used underneath.

5- won at first asking at ELP with a 74 speed figure. LeBron/Flint 3/5 winners last 60 days 4/5 ITM + $5.48 ROI. Bred impeccable for the turf.

6- drops in class, 2nd time over the turf. Another one very well bred for turf, live longshot.

7- first time on the turf, well bred. Castaneda other part of uncoupled entry (5)


My top choices: 5-3-4-6 as of now.

 

[GreenThumbRacing]

Analysis of Race 2:

4- has never raced on turf, two wins on all weather surface which I equate to can run on turf.
5- closer in the race, likes the FG course always around at the end. Tim Glyshaw has this one primed for a good effort.
6- five races on the turf only one klunker. Won his last start at ELP
7- ITM 7/8 in turf races. Three of those wins, two seconds. Good closing kick.
8- ML 9/5 has 5 wins in 13 turf starts. Well traveled horse.

My top choices as of now: 4-6-8-7-5

 

[GreenThumbRacing]

Analysis of Race 3:

1-1A: 1A appears to be the better half, just missed at $2.50/1 last start at ELP. In three starts never had a speed figure above 68
1- 0/9 only turf start was awful. Just missed at Saratoga at 7F dirt

2- horse obviously has had some issues, a few layoff lines, has been a beaten favorite in two of his four starts. Picks up Geroux beware hasn't raced in 249 days.

3- first time starter Catalano. 3/6 last works are bullets. 20% winner debut turf. Tote will tell us

4- Chiltern Street- his first start I had big bet Fallon got him in all sorts of trouble today Kent D rides.

7- 0/8 just missed in last start has a third over this course. Blinkers off, first lasix.

8- has two races over the turf that put him in the mix, will be a long shot.

9- will be around late, in my opinion biggest negative K. Fallon he's had 7 mounts at this meet all off the board.

On paper it looks like many horses have a good chance, but to me it's a one horse race. 4-Chiltern Street look at the race replay from his only race.

4 will be my choice my exacta choices will be 1,2,3,8,9 as of now. 7 would just be third at best for me pending scratches.

 

[GreenThumbRacing]

Time to watch some more replays and finish rest of the card. Until tomorrow

 

[GreenThumbRacing]

Turf will be firm, I'm really looking forward to this card today

 

[GreenThumbRacing]

Scratches and changes for those who are REALLY betting on these races:

#4	Cashel Rock	First Start Since Reported as Gelding	5:00 AM ET
Race: 2	Changes	Time Posted
#10	Prissy Bele	Jockey - Colby J. Hernandez changed to Robby Albarado	10:23 AM ET
Race: 3	Changes	Time Posted
#9	Wings of Prayer	Scratched - Trainer	10:24 AM ET
Race: 4	Changes	Time Posted
#2	Nolans Dream	First Start Since Reported as Gelding	5:00 AM ET
#3	Brother George	Scratched - Veterinarian	10:26 AM ET
#9	Perfect Puma	Scratched - Trainer	10:26 AM ET
#10	Langtanz	Scratched - Trainer	10:26 AM ET
#14	Hidden Brook	Scratched - Trainer	10:27 AM ET
#15	Colonel Krenz	Scratched - Trainer	10:27 AM ET
#16	Zenable	Scratched - Trainer	10:27 AM ET
Race: 5	Changes	Time Posted
#13	Sandburg Village	Scratched - Also-Eligible	10:43 AM ET
Race: 6	Changes	Time Posted
#9	Conspired	Jockey - Robby Albarado changed to Victor Lebron	10:43 AM ET
#11	Uncontrolled	Scratched - Trainer	10:43 AM ET
#14	Dad's Princess	Scratched - Also-Eligible	10:43 AM ET
#15	Scadadle	Scratched - Also-Eligible	10:43 AM ET
#16	Hike	Scratched - Also-Eligible	10:43 AM ET
Race: 7	Changes	Time Posted
#1	Adopt a Kitten	No longer a Coupled Entry	10:44 AM ET
#1A	Pick Pocket	Scratched - Also-Eligible	10:44 AM ET
#2	Broad Causeway	Jockey - Paco Lopez changed to Forest Boyce	10:44 AM ET
#6	Buttermilk	Scratched - Trainer	10:44 AM ET
Race: 8	Changes	Time Posted
#1	West Village	Scratched - Veterinarian	10:32 AM ET
#3	Renown (GB)	Scratched - Trainer	10:32 AM ET
#13	Proud Maxx	Jockey - Kieren Fallon changed to Robby Albarado	10:32 AM ET
#14	Diaz (IRE)	Scratched - Also-Eligible	10:32 AM ET
#15	Jewish Holiday	Scratched - Also-Eligible	10:32 AM ET
#16	Shaban	Scratched - Also-Eligible	10:32 AM ET
Race: 9	Changes	Time Posted
#4	Star Keeper	Scratched - Trainer	10:44 AM ET
#13	Telling Metzie	Scratched - Also-Eligible	10:44 AM ET
Race: 10	Changes	Time Posted
#13	Chic Soiree	Scratched - Also-Eligible	10:44 AM ET
#14	Fingers Crossed	Scratched - Also-Eligible	10:44 AM ET
#15	Tela	Scratched - Also-Eligible	10:44 AM ET
#16	Cherokee Beads	Scratched - Also-Eligible	10:44 AM ET
Race: 11	Changes	Time Posted
#2	Margano	Scratched - Trainer	10:44 AM ET
#7	Red Zeus	Scratched - Trainer	10:44 AM ET
#9	Kalamos	Jockey - Samuel E. Bermudez changed to Abel Lezcano	10:44 AM ET
#11	Den's Legacy	Scratched - Trainer	10:44 AM ET
#13	Late Night Lu	Scratched - Also-Eligible	10:44 AM ET
Race: 12	Changes	Time Posted
#4	Susie's Baby	Scratched - Veterinarian	10:45 AM ET
#12	Cash in My Pocket	Scratched - Trainer	10:45 AM ET
#14	Queen of Scat	Scratched - Trainer	10:45 AM ET
Race: 13	Changes	Time Posted
#13	Right Decision	Scratched - Also-Eligible	10:45 AM ET
#14	Place des Vosges	Scratched - Also-Eligible

 

[GreenThumbRacing]

Like the earlier post due to 13 races, here we go:


Race 1: 5-One Mean Man
$60Win
$20 exacta: 5/3; 5/4; 5/6 ($60)
$10 exacta: 3/5; 4/5; 6/5 ($30)
$20DD: 5/4,5,6,7 ($80)
$20 Pick 3: 5/4,5,6,7/4 ($80)
$10 Pick 3: 5/4,5,6,7/1,3,8 ($120)

 

[GreenThumbRacing]

Race 1 results: 4-2-5

My choice 5 missed the break badly, Victor LeBron just didn't know how to ride this horse at all. Missed by 2 lengths.

Wagered: $430 collected: $0.00

- $430

 

[GreenThumbRacing]

Race 2: 7-Ten Hard Ways
$40Win/Place
$20 exacta box: 7/4; 7/5; 7/6
$20 exacta: 7/8
$10DD: 4,5,6/4
$40DD: 7/4
$10Pick 3: 7/4/all ($100)
$5Pick 3: 4,5,6/4/all ($150)

 

[Lt1]

Good luck GT

 

[GreenThumbRacing]

Race 2 results: 8-3-9

My choice took the day off and watched the pretty horses run by. Off to a slow start

wagered: $540 - $430 = - $970

 

[GreenThumbRacing]

Race 3: 4-Chiltern Street
$200Win
$50exacta: 4/1
$30exacta: 4/2,3,7,8 ($120)
$5 Pick 3: 4/all/all ($550)

This race either makes or breaks me today

 

[GreenThumbRacing]

Race 3 results: 1-7-8-4

My choice 4 was bet down to 7/5 opened at 2/5. Made a ok run to take a brief advantage mid stretch. Faded last 150 yards.

In a big hole now for the day, need my rally cap.

wagered: $920 - $970 = $1,890

 

[GreenThumbRacing]

Race 4: 12-Night Out
$40Win/Place
$20 exacta box: 12/2 ; 12/5; 12/6; 12/13
$40 exacta: 12/4

 

[joeyp]

i think you might snag this one out if he speed balls to the front im paying 3 doubles 12-6, 12-8, 12-10 as a extra play today

 

[GreenThumbRacing]

i think you might snag this one out if he speed balls to the front im paying 3 doubles 12-6, 12-8, 12-10 as a extra play today

Fingers crossed joeyp

 

[GreenThumbRacing]

Race 4 results: 13-7-2

My choice 12 never ran a lick.

wagered: $280 collected: $0.00

- $280 - $1,890 = - $2,170

 

[GreenThumbRacing]

Race 5: 11-Paint The Corners: ran ok first start at Indiana Downs, will be coming late
$40Win/Place
$20 exacta: 11/1; 11/3; 11/5
$10 exacta: 1/11; 3/11; 5/11
$10 triple: 11/9/ 1,3,5
$10 triple: 9/11/ 1,3,5
$20DD: 11/1,2,5,6

 

[GreenThumbRacing]

Race 5 results: 3-4-11

My choice 11 ran on for third, getting closer. But still losing ground

wagered: $310 collected: $0

- $310 - $2,170 = - $2,480