GREAT World Series Future Value

D2bets · Aug 7, 2003

...at a great book -- BLUEGRASS...
***CHICAGO CUBS 50-1 to win the WS***

This bet is simply a function of the chance to make the playoffs and then if they make the playoffs the odds to win the WS. If the Cubs make the playoffs they will not be a big dog in any series because of the rotation of Wood, Prior, Clement, Zambrano they can throw out there. I figure if they make the playoffs they are no higher than 12-1 to win it all, quite possibly less. This means you are essentially getting better than 4-1 for them to make the playoffs now. Cubs 1.5 games behind Houston (1 in the loss column) and they are just hitting their stride since getting Lofton and Ramirez who have added a spark along with a rejuvenated Sosa. Karros is also performing very well. Houston and St. Louis both have serious rotation issues. Cubs Sept. schedule is very light ending with Mets, Cinci twice, Pitt twice and Mil. Cubs should be no more than maybe +120 tops to win the division. +120 with +1200 gives true odds of 28-1. 50-1 is a steal that would provide tremendous hedging opportunities if they Cubs reach the playoffs.

drunkguy · Aug 7, 2003

got FLA at +200 prior to the all star break

not that's value!

drunkguy · Aug 7, 2003

mean to 200-1, not +200

D2bets · Aug 7, 2003

Yes that is very good value as well. I got some of Florida at 150-1 a couple weeks ago. Florida's road is a little tougher than the Cubs though because they're fighting only for the WC against a gaggle of teams.

blueedwards · Aug 8, 2003

d2, if the cubs win the world series, i will eat my left foot.

LogansRun · Aug 8, 2003

Blue, LMAO!

Cubs in the Playoffs and World Series....

D2bets · Aug 8, 2003

blue, I will remember this post. I am not by any means a fan of cannabilism but the thought of that is still rather humorous.

Why is it that you thnk they don't have a chance anyway? The pieces really are in place with that rotation. They seem to me to be every bit as good as Arizona's 2001 club. Damien Miller from that club and Lofton/Baker from last year's SF club.

blueedwards · Aug 8, 2003

i have been in chicago for way too long and have heard "all the pieces are in place" about a hundred times. they have to win the division to make the playoffs. if (and that's a big if by the way) they win the division, they will likely get a first round matchup with atlanta. if that happens i will shop for the best line on a braves sweep and pound it. the only way they beat atlanta is if there are enough rainouts between game one and two that prior can pitch both games.

good luck to you.

D2bets · Aug 8, 2003

If you've heard it 100 times then they've been crazy 99 times because this is the best rotation the Cubs have EVER had. 'Ever' like in the entire history of the franchise. Never ever have they had pitching like this and these guys are no flukes. The Cubs have not been swept in a 3 or 4 games series this entire year and they would start Wood, Prior, Clement in a series...betting on them getting swept would be throwing money down the toilt. Just silliness.

blueedwards · Aug 8, 2003

d2, i'm not gonna argue with you. i will make a recommendation though...if they make the playoffs, hedge your bet by taking their first round opponent or you will be kicking yourself.

good luck

D2bets · Aug 8, 2003

blue, I certainly would do that. I'd hedge my total at risk in each series. The way I've projected it I could still get around 37-1 payoff even after hedging all risk out of the equation if they make the playoffs. I probably wouldn't go much further though because you dn't want to hedge out all of the value inherent in the original play. That's not generally smart.

Jazz · Aug 8, 2003

D2's logic is sound to me. The value is there, regardless of how you or I may feel about the Cubbies' past. Solid thinking, D2 - hedge-wise, I'd probably be more agressive so as to make a profit in case the Cubs lose a playoff series, assuming of course they get there, but as future bets go this one looks like a very good one.

DannyMay · Aug 8, 2003

Seems that when a team comes off a sweep and makes up 2 games a lot of people want to jump on them. They just won all 3 games from the Padres, one of the worst teams in baseball.

Sure Wood, Prior and Zambrano pitch well against teams with no hitting but they get killed when they go against teams who can hit. This would be the case in the playoffs. The Braves, Giants, Phillies or whoever would knock these guys out by the fourth innng. Remember that even with this great rotation this team is barely playing .500 ball in the weakest division in the NL. They get to play so many more games against Cincinatti, Pittsburgh and Milwaukee than any team out of the division does. Even with that weak ass schedule this team is barely playing .500 ball. Dont jump to hard on this team and its pitchers just because they held San Diego to 5 runs in the series.

DannyMay · Aug 8, 2003

Atlanta scored 46 runs in their 6 games this year.

6 games against the Braves, 20 each against Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, and Cincinatti. LMAO.

With the new Wild Card system something needs to be done to balance out schedules. Teams in the NL East playing a much, much, much stronger schedule than teams in the NL Central. It wont matter this year but some years it will.

1 thing that works for you though is that the Cubs last 22 games are ALL against teams below .500. Lmao. Come to think of it though, the same should be true for Houston and St. Louis as they will all be playing their 18,19, and 20th games of the year against the minor league teams at the bottom of their divison.

DannyMay · Aug 8, 2003

Option #1

Risk $100 to win $5000 to win WS

Win get $5100

Option #2

to win NL Central

100 to win 175 = 275

then To Beat Atlanta Braves at +200

275 to win 550 = 825

then To Beat San Fransisco at + 200

825 to win 1650 = 2475

then to Beat AL Winner at +150

2475 to win 3712 = 6187

My series prices may be a little off but I am sure we can agree the Cubs would be the Dog everywhere. Youre still better off playing it by series. Good Luck. Danny.

blueedwards · Aug 8, 2003

all very sound logic, theoretically. in the real world of baseball, a future bet on the cubs winning the n.l. (much less the world series) is the equivalent of setting your cash ablaze.

-Slim- · Aug 8, 2003

"cubs" and "value" do not belong in the same sentence. Ever.

D2bets · Aug 8, 2003

Danny, I completely disagree with your projections. First of all, where are they +175 to win the Central? For the few that offer it I've seen +140 recently. Also, they *could* make the playoffs without winning the division by getting the wildcard, though admittedly that is less likely.

Secondly, they would not be +200 in a series against Atlanta. You never see any of Wood, Prior, Clement, Zambrano anywhere near +200 in any game anywhere against anyone. It just doesn't happen. Those stats vs. Atalnta are skewed because they half of those starts were Estes and Mitre and they will not see the field in that series. Cubs were 4-2 vs. SF this year. The Cubs would be +150 TOPS in a series against Atlanta and +140 tops vs. SF. Unless you tell me who has it the best I can find is +150 for the Cubs division and againt hat doesn't include WC.
$100 to return $250
$250 at +150 to return $625
$625 at +140 to return $1500
$1500 at +150 to return $3,750
$3750 not as good as $5000
And again unless you can find odds to make the playoffs instead of win the division then it is not the same play.

The value in this is not because I now think they're better because they swept the Pads. Obviously going from 3.5 to 1.5 is a big thing. But team-wise what is big was the Lofton and Ramirez trade. Lofton has added a spark to this team like he did for SF last year. Clement was terrible earlier in the year but is rounding into shape bigtime and is a huge talent. Zambrano is getting better all the time in just his second year. Sosa basically did nothing the first half of the year and is now the Sammy of odl. The Cubs have allowed 4 or fewer runs in 12 straight games now. It's my belief that the name on the lapel hinders people from making an objective assessment of this team's current talent. Nobody wants to be embarrassed for overrating the Cubs because they are everyone's favorite losers. Look at the team man for man and objectively and it seems to me the team is a legit contender especially in a playoff series where starting pitching can go a long way. Ask Damien Miller about that (2001 DBacks).

ChuckSims · Aug 8, 2003

D2bets, If for some miracle the Cubs found themselves in the WS, they would be a huge underdog to the Yankees. The AL has homefield advantage. The Cubs are'nt getting past the Braves so why even make the bet? If Cubs don't make the playoffs you lose your future bet. If Cubs win the division and lose to the Braves, you break even according to your betting strategy. A lose no-win situation. Not good, not smart.

blueedwards · Aug 8, 2003

d2, i wish you the best with your bet, i really do. you have bigger one's than i because i just cannot make a cubs future bet.

i do think that if the cubs win the division (which i still think is very unlikely) and draw the braves, they are in big trouble.

also, lastly, it would not surprise me to see kerry wood break down in september. he is averaging 110 pitches a game and is all arm when he pitches (as opposed to mark prior who uses his legs well). if he is not 100%, the cubs have zero chance of winning anything.

good luck.