Great Value Play at Intertops

[DannyMay]

InterTops has this prop

Will any Team score 60 or more points in a game.


NO -1000



NFL - Regular Season Games Only.


Forget the high juice, this play has tremedous value. a 10 % Return in 3 months = almost a 48 % Annual ROI. This play has great value and is well worth it if you have a few hundred bucks that you can do without for the next few months. I know none of us are making 10 % returns on our investments in 3 months.


DISCLAIMER : I am NOT saying this play is a 100 % guaranteed lock. I am saying that at -1000 it offers the casual player enormous value. This enormous value, coupled with the fact the Intertops is one of the worlds strongest books and just gave me a 10% bonus makes this play all the stronger. Again, I am not claiming this play is a 100 % guaranteed lock. It is at least a 99.5 % lock.

 

[DannyMay]

I think this would be a strong play at -1000 if the prop said 50 points, instead of 60. No team in the NFL wants to rub another teams face in it that bad, and I just dont see a 57-54 game late 4th quarter.

 

[D2bets]

Have you don the research on this? How many years has a team failed to reach 60 and how many times/year does a team usually reach 60? Offhand it doesn't seem like a dure thing to me.

 

[PanchoSanza]

Its happened twice since 1983 (not counting the strike year of 1987) so chances of it happening are about 2000-1.

 

[PanchoSanza]

1989 Cinn 61 Hous 7

1985 NY Jets 62 Tampa Bay 28

 

[D2bets]

So it's happened twice in 20 years and you have to pay -1000??? Lemme guess, they're not offering the oppositr side of this pop bet, huh?

 

[D2bets]

Wow, just checked, they do have 'NO' at +700. Pancho, are you serious...a team has reached 60+ only twice since '83 and none since '89? If that's the case then NO +700 looks like the MEGA MEGA MEGA VALUE here.

 

[Ladeda]

Let's see....

It has happened twice in 20 years which equals once every 10 years which means it's a 10-1 shot each year of a team going over 60 points. At -1000 where is the value if the odds of 10-1, looks to me like Intertops has the proper number posted.

So basically it would be loaning your money to on offshore at 0% interest for 3 months. Not as great of a value as it seems.

 

[PanchoSanza]

The max bet on the "no" is 550.

So you can make 55 bucks.

 

[D2bets]

laleda, you're reading it just the opposite of what it is. 'YES' a team will score 60+ is -1000 and yet that bet would have won just twice in twenty years. This is not only not a good value play, (assuming Pancho's stat is correct) it may the worst wager in the history of wagering lol. Betting 1-10 on a bet that has a 10% chance to win and that takes over 3 months to complete.

But on the other hand, getting 6 to 1 on a bet than has 90% chance to win, even if it takes 3 months, looks pretty damned good to me.

Now I'm wonidering whether they could claim it's a bad line and it should be flipped? Hmmm...

 

[D2bets]

Ohhh, scratch everything I said. I thought the odds were flipped. ****it, I gotta go to bed. Carry on...

 

[neverstop]

Intertops has the maximum value on those bets so low for a reason. They get to keep a somewhat sizable amount of your play money and than when you hammer it for the max you must reload. Big deal if they lose and you hit the max you earn 55 bucks after 3 months. They know most will put that back afterwards betting on the playoffs anyway. This prop has no real value. Not even worth really looking at. Intertops wants you to reload here and get more of your money. That is a no brainer.

 

[TheGeneral+]

The Colts may do this in the next 13 games

 

[JoeWager]

No value whatsoever in this play IMO. Tie up $550 until the end of the season for a max profit of $55 ?!?!? No thanks.

 

[lander]

I wouldn't play it.
No value IMO.

 

[DannyMay]

Ladeda,

Your logic is dead on except for the fact that 20 % of this season is over. I also think this season cannot be compared exactly to previous seasons. There are a lot of very strong D's this year and not many explosive offenses. Can you name any explosive Offense ? I think the game has changed a lot over the past decade to more of a defense oriented game. Look at the last 3 SuperBowl winners - Baltimore, New England, TB. These were all teams without much offense, but an amazing Defense. Looking back 10 years ago it seemed the SB winner was always a team with explosive offense ( Dallas, SF ).

I think all in all the chances it will happen this year is less than 1 % .


Joe Wager and Lander,

That is probably how most gamblers would feel. Why tie up $550 for 3 months and only get $55 profit. I think that is often how we gamblers get in trouble. We have this " I have to make big money today" mentality. Yes I agree this play isnt going to give you a 100 % return by 11:30 tonight, but I am thinking like a investor. If you invest in stock and you show a 10% increase in 3 months thats pretty good.

 

[Fishhead]

Getting a 20% cash bonus is a MUCH stronger play.

 

[DannyMay]

I got 10 %.

 

[JoeWager]

Too bad there’s a limit on this play at Intertops. Otherwise, we could follow that last DannyMay pearl of sports betting wisdom:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> … this is a rare opportunity. I have a play for you that WILL win. No doubt about it. It WILL win. You need to sell you car, you computer, ask your parents for an advance on next semesters tuition, pawn everything you own. I am NOT KIDDING man. Your job is to get hold of all the money you can and quickly … Put everything on this play. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
No offense sir, but its advice like this “that is how gamblers get in trouble.”

 

[DannyMay]

Yeah Joe -- and that play DID win.