GoSooners Plays For Week 5

[GoSooners]

Last Week:

* 1-2
** 7-4
*** 1-0

Season:

* 3-4
** 9-18
*** 2-3
**** 0-2

Now that we have 4 weeks of football under out belts hopefully we can get a better idea which way these teams are heading. When you start getting into October and get into conference play, things usually start to tighten up quite a bit. Those teams who were blowing out their non-conference opponents in the first month may not have it so easy. And the mediocre teams who have had an easy non-conference schedule and are going into conference play undefeated may be in for a rude awakening....Just sayin'
This has been a strange season. And the numbers back me up. Here are the ATS records through the first 4 weeks:

Away Teams 99-89
Home Teams 89-99
Favorites 87-101
Dogs 101-87
Away Faves 26-28
Away Dogs 73-61
Home Faves 61-73
Home Dogs 28-26

Totals

Over in 92 Games
Under in 96 Games

Two of my big ATS teams who won 8 or more games ATS last season and were undefeated this season went down last week. Ole Miss and Cal were both due for a loss and they didn't disappoint. On the other side of the coin I believe there are several teams that i believe will end this season with a winning record, but have yet to win a game ATS. I look for these teams to get their first win either this week or next. I'll go into that later. Just one game to put in for right now.

Kansas St. (+3) over Iowa State **

We finally start getting into Big 12 play. And I believe this is when the true strength of these teams come out. I think the difference in this game is going to be defense. And KSU has the better defense playing on a neutral field in Kansas City. But I've been to Arrowhead a few times, and those season ticket holders seem to like the color purple. So KSU should have the homefield advantage since I don't see many ISU fans leaving the outskirts of Ames. ISU's defense is pretty bad this year. Prior to last week's game vs Army they were giving up 5.7 yards per play to teams who average just 4.9 per play. And this is never good when playing an away game. ISU did get their first road victory in ages against Kent a couple weeks ago. But Kent was without their QB and RB for that game, yet still put up 255 passing yards on ISU. The ISU defense has been terrible against the run all season. And I can see KSU having much more success than they did running against a stout UCLA defense the other night. ISU also has a good running game. But I expect an improving KSU defense to slow down ISU enough to get the best of the rushing stats. KSU and Nebraska have a common opponet in ULL. And both defenses gave up about the same amount of rushing yardage to ULL. And KSU's was a road game. The QB's are about even here. Neither are lighting the world on fire with KSU's Coffman hitting 58% of his passes with a 2-4 ratio while ISU's Arnaud is hitting 54% with a 5-4 ratio. Despite KSU's offensive woes, they hung in very well against UCLA and the game wasn't decided until the waning minutes when UCLA completed a 50 yard pass to put the dagger in. KSU also left several good scoring opportunities on the field that night. I don't see them having that problem here. KSU owns the special teams. And if they punt here as many times as I think, I look for KSU's dangerous returner Brandon Banks to get ample opportunity to run one back. KSU also has the coaching advantage with Snyder over Rhoads, who is coaching in just his 5th game. The bottom line here is KSU, even though 2-2 have played better than their results show. And they are the more talented team with the most VHT players. Especially on the defensive side of the ball. This should be the difference in the game.

Kansas State 26
Iowa State 21

 

[indiana]

G.Sooners.........

You've turned the corner.... thanks for the write up and play (coming plays)...good luck this week

indy

 

[nd2000]

Sweet. K-State is my dog play of the week. I was stunned when Vegas made Iowa State the favorite.

 

[CRATHELP]

Whats your opinion on Oklahoma this week?

 

[OAKAS]

AMES, Iowa -- Iowa State wide receiver Darius Reynolds broke his leg in practice Tuesday and will be examined Wednesday to determine the extent of the injury, the school said.
Reynolds, a junior-college transfer in his first season at Iowa State, has 13 receptions for 72 yards in four games.
The Cyclones (3-1) open Big 12 play on Saturday when they face Kansas State (2-2).

 

[OAKAS]

Iowa State defensive end Rashawn Parker will miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL. Coach Paul Rhoads announced the severity of Parker’s left leg injury after practice on Tuesday.

Parker suffered the injury in the first quarter of the Army game last Saturday. Parker underwent an MRI Monday afternoon.

Rhoads said Parker will appeal for a medical redshirt. Parker is a fourth-year senior who hasn’t redshirted.

NCAA rules state that a player can receive a medical redshirt if they play in 30 percent of a team’s games in the first half of the season. By starting the first four games Parker competed in 33 percent of ISU’s contests.

Rhoads said he is hopeful that the NCAA will grant Parker another year of eligibility.

“This is a young man that would certainly deserve it, playing all the way through and doing all the things right, educationally as well as football,” Rhoads said.

Rhoads also said that defensive backs Devin McDowell and Allen Bell are still on the football team, even though they didn’t practice on Tuesday. Internet reports stated that the duo had quit the football team.

 

[GoSooners]

Indy....Thanks. I hope I can keep it going this week.

ND...I was a little surprised at the line too. But I think it was based mostly on who these two teams have played and not who they are. Not really much to go on with KSU. But from what I've seen of both teams, KSU looks to be a little more of a stable and established program less apt to make mistakes.

Oakas...I hate to hear about ISU losing some key players at the wrong time going into conference play. They really can't afford to lose any more defensive players.

Crathelp...I lean towards Miami in that game regardless of whether Bradford plays or not. From what I've seen of OU this year, I see where they have very few advantages over Miami coming into this game. If I knew Bradford wasn't going to play, I think the under would be a very good play. Even if he does I believe I would lean to the under as long as it stays above 48, which is a key number with the total...BOL

 

[GoForIt]

BOL GoSooners. You know I'll be rooting for you since K-State is my favorite NCAA football team. I jumped on their wagon in the mid 90's and never got off. I've never even been to Kansas, but as your boy Barry Switzer said "Bill Snyder is not coach of the year, but coach of the century". People in Atlanta (SEC ACC Country) always tell me "Why do you root for Kansas State?" and I tell them how can you not after knowing their story and history. Of course, I want you to win outright LOL. As for me, my only play this week is
Air Force +3.5 (posted and played yesterday)

 

[fadethepublic1]

Last Week:

Kansas St. (+3) over Iowa State **

We finally start getting into Big 12 play. And I believe this is when the true strength of these teams come out. I think the difference in this game is going to be defense. And KSU has the better defense playing on a neutral field in Kansas City. But I've been to Arrowhead a few times, and those season ticket holders seem to like the color purple. So KSU should have the homefield advantage since I don't see many ISU fans leaving the outskirts of Ames. ISU's defense is pretty bad this year. Prior to last week's game vs Army they were giving up 5.7 yards per play to teams who average just 4.9 per play. And this is never good when playing an away game. ISU did get their first road victory in ages against Kent a couple weeks ago. But Kent was without their QB and RB for that game, yet still put up 255 passing yards on ISU. The ISU defense has been terrible against the run all season. And I can see KSU having much more success than they did running against a stout UCLA defense the other night. ISU also has a good running game. But I expect an improving KSU defense to slow down ISU enough to get the best of the rushing stats. KSU and Nebraska have a common opponet in ULL. And both defenses gave up about the same amount of rushing yardage to ULL. And KSU's was a road game. The QB's are about even here. Neither are lighting the world on fire with KSU's Coffman hitting 58% of his passes with a 2-4 ratio while ISU's Arnaud is hitting 54% with a 5-4 ratio. Despite KSU's offensive woes, they hung in very well against UCLA and the game wasn't decided until the waning minutes when UCLA completed a 50 yard pass to put the dagger in. KSU also left several good scoring opportunities on the field that night. I don't see them having that problem here. KSU owns the special teams. And if they punt here as many times as I think, I look for KSU's dangerous returner Brandon Banks to get ample opportunity to run one back. KSU also has the coaching advantage with Snyder over Rhoads, who is coaching in just his 5th game. The bottom line here is KSU, even though 2-2 have played better than their results show. And they are the more talented team with the most VHT players. Especially on the defensive side of the ball. This should be the difference in the game.

Kansas State 26
Iowa State 21

GS & ND,
I think I'm gonna tail you guys since you both are playing it. GS, I know you're a Big12 guy, so when two great minds think a like.... I like the play. Thanks guys. Aloha from Hawaii.

 

[GoForIt]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m8JvBBQBA6w

a K-State classic video

 

[GoSooners]

Fade..Aloha and BOL this week.

Go For It...I sat in the middle of a bunch of Kansas State fans in the Big 12 Championship game back in 2000 and had a great time. They were very cordial fans all the way through. The biggest thing I remember about that game is I about froze my ass off sitting in the 20 degree weather. Of course KSU got their revenge on us in 2003 when they beat an undefeated OU team in the Big 12 championship game. Snyder is a good coach. And Stoops, Venables and Mangino have him to thank for helping launch their coaching careers.

 

[55 % at worst]

All over BC at +5.5...pounded them

 

[jimmyshivers]

Congrats on a nice week..

Glad to see you on the Noles this week GS, I like this spot for them as they talent/athleticism edge is very nice. They weren't focused last week and little brother bit them in the ass. Time for a bounce back performance

 

[jimmyshivers]

Congrats on a nice week..

Glad to see you on the Noles this week GS, I like this spot for them as they talent/athleticism edge is very nice. They weren't focused last week and little brother bit them in the ass. Time for a bounce back performance :toast:

 

[GoSooners]

Florida State (-4) over Boston College **

This is more of a situational play than anything else because it goes against most of my actual lined numbers on this game. So I'm going against the common sense way to play this game. But here are my thoughts on Florida State. Last week was obviously a lookahead spot with FSU coming off their big win over BYU and then playing their second conference game against BC this week. A must-win game for FSU since BC is 1-1 in their division and 0-1 FSU can't afford to go down by 2 games to this team. So in my opinion FSU didn't put as much importance as they should have on last week's game since it was a non-conference game. And they probably underestimated USF since Grothe was out. So one thing led to another. In my opinion that was a Perfect Storm of a football game for USF. For all practical purposes USF had one month to prepare for that game. Before they played FSU, South Florida played two FCS teams and WKU, the worst team in Division 1. So they not only had the luxury to practice for FSU while scrimmaging with these bottom feeders, they've saved a lot of wear and tear on their bodies leading up to this game while FSU had been playing monsters like Miami and BYU. The game last week is one I'm really pissed off that I didn't look at in detail. Because in my opinion it was a very logical play on USF. This week FSU goes up against a BC team who isn't very good on offense. They have a decent defense. But nothing any better than what FSU has. This BC team when they played some decent competetion like Clemson managed just 4 first downs and 54 total yards. And against Wake Forest last week they were the most fortunate team in the world to come out with a win after Wake put up 500 yards on them. I just don't think this team is in the same category of the FSU's and Miami's in this league. And certainly not Clemson, who I think is about the equal to FSU in the ACC. And they had no problems handling BC. I've got to admit FSU is a funky Jekyll and Hyde type of team. But Bowden is pretty pissed at his team right now and has given them a swift kick in the ass this week. And I don't think FSU falls into this trap two weeks in a row. They'll win this game to stay even with Clemson. Plus FSU has a couple tough games ahead with teams like Ga Tech, North Carolina and NCST before they even get to Clemson. So this game is a must-win for FSU. I think they get it done here.

FSU 24
BC 13

 

[AlwaysKeen]

@)

 

[GoSooners]

I have not seen Iowa State but I was at the UCLA/K-State game and K-State had no offense at all and the Bruins have a very good D but there was no sign of life, I just don't see how they can get over 20 points. They might cover the spread, but this game looks like an under to me.

I watched that game and KSU did miss a couple scoring opportunities and they out first downed UCLA 19-16 and owned the time possesion by 35 minutes to 25. So the Cats are capable of moving the ball and controlling the tempo of the game. I thought Snyder did a good job at halftime of making some adjustments and they played UCLA pretty tough until the end when Kraft threw that long pass on them. I don't believe ISU's defnes is nearly as good and KSU will be able to run the ball on them. Tis will probably be a close low scoring game. So I also kind of like the under. But if it's close I prefer to be getting the points.

 

[55 % at worst]

All over BC at +5.5...pounded them

 

[GoSooners]

Congrats on a nice week..

Glad to see you on the Noles this week GS, I like this spot for them as they talent/athleticism edge is very nice. They weren't focused last week and little brother bit them in the ass. Time for a bounce back performance :toast:

Thanks Jimmy...I'm always glad when we're on the same side in these ACC games. It's redemption time for FSU. Personally, I think BC is the worst 3-1 team in the ACC. I can see a halfway low scoring game. But I don't see them keeping up with FSU's much more athletic team. BOL this week.

 

[GoSooners]

All over BC at +5.5...pounded them

Looking at your past posts I noticed you were also all over Boston College against Clemson, calling it your best bet of the week. How'd that work out for ya? @)