Last week was a crappy start to the season. Not only for my plays but because of OU losing right out of the gate. And with the Sooners losing both Bradford and Gresham, it doesn't look good for the rest of the season. OU had only 5 starters back on offense to begin with. Without these two players there are now only 3 starters back from last season's highest scoring offense. There are 4 cogs to the offense. The OL, QB, RB, WR's. And OU has now lost 3 of those cogs, which is usually the kiss of death. Even for the BCS powers. Hopefully Bradford will make a quicker than expected return and OU can at least play the spoiler role in conference this season.
Overall the Big 12 looked very good last week with the exception of Colorado. it looks like it's going to be more of the same with this team. Maybe worse. I can see now why Hawkins avoided talking about his defense this summer. They stunk. The D-Line is weak. And the secondary is very unstable and gave up way too many big plays. The offense looked about the the same, maybe worse. They didn't have the running game they were expected to have. And the playcalling was lousy. Overall, not a good effort at all from the Buffs. And in order for Hawkins statement of the Buffs winning 10 games this season to come true, they may have to end up playing 30 games. I don't know what is going to happen this week at Toledo. But if Hawkins doesn't win this one, he may not last the season. And their chances probably aren't that great since they've only won 2 road games in the last 3 years. That won't get it done.
Last Week:
** Plays 1-4
*** Plays 1-1
Iowa State (+6.5) over Iowa **
This is almost a no-brainer for me every year. ISU has always been the ugly stepchild team of the state of Iowa. And they ALWAYS play way above their heads in this game. As a rule it takes Iowa about a half a season to really get cranked up. And as good as they look on paper, they never seem ready or at full strength when these two teams meet. Iowa either loses this game or they play just good enough to win. They very seldom give you more than that when these two rivals meet. This year Iowa will face a more balanced ISU offense under the direction of OC Tom Herman, who made Rice's offense a big success for the last couple of years. And the Clones have a dangerous duo threat QB Arnaud running the show. So with their clever new coordinator calling the plays, Iowa may have a few unexpected matchup problems to deal with. And with the lack of playmakers that I'm seeing with Iowa right now, it may only take 2 or 3 big plays and a couple scores by ISU to cover or win this game. I think the lack of a decent running game without Shonn Greene, and now without his replacement, is going to put too much pressure on Stanzi this year to make the plays. I think Stanzi is an adequate QB, but from the times that I've seen him play, nothing special. He also better have his O-Line protecting him better than they did last week if they have any hope of winning this game. He was sacked 4 times against an FCS team. And new coach Paul Rhodes (ex Auburn DC) is coaching this ISU defense to be a little more agressive. I'm not sure that Iowa's near loss last week was that much of a fluke. They just aren't that good on offense right now. They have a great defense that will probably keep them in any game this year. But being a TD favorite on the road is another story. I like the Clones here in yet another close state rivalry game.
Wake Forest/Stanford (OVER 44) **
This is kind of an unusual cross country matchup between two middle of the road teams. And the first time these teams have meant. It looks like it's going to be Stanford's ground game against Wake's passing game. I still think these teams are lacking a little in defense. Although probably improved a little from last season, Stanford's pass defense up to now has been weak. I think their strong run game is going to help them get more covers and wins this year. But I think they'll be in a few high scoring contests when they go up against the good balanced offenses in their league. On the other side Wake lost pretty much everybody off of what was their best defensive unit under Grobe. But even last season with their best D unit, the total still went over this 44 number in 5 of their games. And with a weaker defense but a stronger offense, I expect more overs from Wake this year. I just got through watching the replay of the Wake/Baylor game today, and Riley Skinner was just a hair off on his passes, which caused him to throw 3 int's. Very uncharacteristic for him. But he was very close with his passes being right on the fingertips of his WR's... I think he'll be much sharper in this second game against what I believe will be a weaker defense than what Wake faced against Baylor last week. Let's not forget that Skinner pretty much holds the passing records for Wake and the ACC in a few categories. He can get it done. And you very seldom will see him or this Wake team throw in two bad games like that in a row under Grobe. I look for more points here from Wake than what we saw in a rusty offensive performance last week. And I don't think they'll be able to stop Stanford's ground game, when they gave up 200 yards to Baylor last week.. They'll get their points too. I'm liking the over here.
Overall the Big 12 looked very good last week with the exception of Colorado. it looks like it's going to be more of the same with this team. Maybe worse. I can see now why Hawkins avoided talking about his defense this summer. They stunk. The D-Line is weak. And the secondary is very unstable and gave up way too many big plays. The offense looked about the the same, maybe worse. They didn't have the running game they were expected to have. And the playcalling was lousy. Overall, not a good effort at all from the Buffs. And in order for Hawkins statement of the Buffs winning 10 games this season to come true, they may have to end up playing 30 games. I don't know what is going to happen this week at Toledo. But if Hawkins doesn't win this one, he may not last the season. And their chances probably aren't that great since they've only won 2 road games in the last 3 years. That won't get it done.
Last Week:
** Plays 1-4
*** Plays 1-1
Iowa State (+6.5) over Iowa **
This is almost a no-brainer for me every year. ISU has always been the ugly stepchild team of the state of Iowa. And they ALWAYS play way above their heads in this game. As a rule it takes Iowa about a half a season to really get cranked up. And as good as they look on paper, they never seem ready or at full strength when these two teams meet. Iowa either loses this game or they play just good enough to win. They very seldom give you more than that when these two rivals meet. This year Iowa will face a more balanced ISU offense under the direction of OC Tom Herman, who made Rice's offense a big success for the last couple of years. And the Clones have a dangerous duo threat QB Arnaud running the show. So with their clever new coordinator calling the plays, Iowa may have a few unexpected matchup problems to deal with. And with the lack of playmakers that I'm seeing with Iowa right now, it may only take 2 or 3 big plays and a couple scores by ISU to cover or win this game. I think the lack of a decent running game without Shonn Greene, and now without his replacement, is going to put too much pressure on Stanzi this year to make the plays. I think Stanzi is an adequate QB, but from the times that I've seen him play, nothing special. He also better have his O-Line protecting him better than they did last week if they have any hope of winning this game. He was sacked 4 times against an FCS team. And new coach Paul Rhodes (ex Auburn DC) is coaching this ISU defense to be a little more agressive. I'm not sure that Iowa's near loss last week was that much of a fluke. They just aren't that good on offense right now. They have a great defense that will probably keep them in any game this year. But being a TD favorite on the road is another story. I like the Clones here in yet another close state rivalry game.
Wake Forest/Stanford (OVER 44) **
This is kind of an unusual cross country matchup between two middle of the road teams. And the first time these teams have meant. It looks like it's going to be Stanford's ground game against Wake's passing game. I still think these teams are lacking a little in defense. Although probably improved a little from last season, Stanford's pass defense up to now has been weak. I think their strong run game is going to help them get more covers and wins this year. But I think they'll be in a few high scoring contests when they go up against the good balanced offenses in their league. On the other side Wake lost pretty much everybody off of what was their best defensive unit under Grobe. But even last season with their best D unit, the total still went over this 44 number in 5 of their games. And with a weaker defense but a stronger offense, I expect more overs from Wake this year. I just got through watching the replay of the Wake/Baylor game today, and Riley Skinner was just a hair off on his passes, which caused him to throw 3 int's. Very uncharacteristic for him. But he was very close with his passes being right on the fingertips of his WR's... I think he'll be much sharper in this second game against what I believe will be a weaker defense than what Wake faced against Baylor last week. Let's not forget that Skinner pretty much holds the passing records for Wake and the ACC in a few categories. He can get it done. And you very seldom will see him or this Wake team throw in two bad games like that in a row under Grobe. I look for more points here from Wake than what we saw in a rusty offensive performance last week. And I don't think they'll be able to stop Stanford's ground game, when they gave up 200 yards to Baylor last week.. They'll get their points too. I'm liking the over here.
