The Books have made the team totals a little tougher to pick this year. And I really haven't found a big difference between their numbers and my numbers for any team. So I'm not going to throw in any huge plays on any of these. I'll use my star system for strength of play. All plays at 5Dimes.
** Small Play
*** Medium Play
**** Large Play (Best Bet)
USC under 10.5 wins ** (-150)
It's always a big gamble to bet against this team. But the combination of losing 9 starters on defense combined with being in the the tough year of their Pac-10 schedule has me thinking they lose at least one game, maybe two in conference. Or possibly one out of conference (Ohio State or Notre Dame) and one in conference.
Texas Tech under 8 wins *** (-180)
Even VHT QB Graham Harrell struggled in his first year at Tech. Espeically in his road games. So I see QB Potts going through the same growing pains. And I see all 5 TT road games as probable losses. And if you think the OU defense got to Harrell, wait until they get a hold of this new QB. So that game will also be a loss. Even if TT can get by non-BCS Houston early in the season, they'll still need to beat Baylor at Jerry's World in Arlington in the last game of the year to even get to 8 wins. And TT had all kinds of problems with Baylor last season after OU softened the Red Raiders up the week before. TT loses a couple excellent lockdown covers in their defensive backfield. Plus they lost yet another starter on the D-Line in the offseason. So without a pass rush and inexperiece in the D-Backfield, they may not even get past Kansas and their dangerous QB Reesing when they come calling in Lubbock. TT just barely becomes bowl eligible this season going 6-6 or 7-5 at best.
Auburn under 7.5 wins *** (-225)
Although a rule not set in stone, the longer a coach was in one place like Tuberville was at Auburn, the harder it is to put in a new system. And another thing that none of us are sure of is if Gene Chizik is a step up or a step down from Tuberville. In any case, that's a lot of ifs. And despite starting their first 4 games at home, their games with La Tech and West Va are far from gimmes. I can this team winning as many as 7 games this year. But i can also see them going 4-8. It's probably going to end up somewhere in between.
Arizona St. under 6.5 wins ** (-120)
Although I have great respect for Dennis Erickson, and he sounded very positive when I recently saw him interviewed about this upcoming season, I think it's their schedule and the general improvement of the rest of the Pac-10 teams under USC that is probably going to be their undoing this season. What makes me negative about this team is they basically had everything go their way last season and couldn't get it done. They benefited from +5 TO margin and lost very few players to injury. So there was basically no excuses for their 5-7 record. They basically have the same kind of schedule this year, but with the exception of Washington St, every road team they play this season will be improved over last. I still think this play will be close. If it was at 6 instead of 6.5 I wouldn't have played it.
Texas over 10 wins ** (-155)
I can see Texas losing to OU or OSU, but not both. Missouri would have to be considered a game of concern since it will be a sandwich game between OU and OSU. But Texas has traditionally played very well the week after the Red River Rivalry. The only other road game where they'll have to bring their B game or better will be at Baylor. But Texas wins 10 games pretty much every year. The worst outcome i can see for this bet is a tie. Their easy non-conference shcedule where they can rest up their first unit players and give their reserves much needed playing time will only help this team and make them stronger going into Big 12 play. But if Colt McCoy goes down all bets are off.
UCONN under 6.5 wins (-240)
Even though they went 8-5 last season, UCONN really wasn't all that strong of a team. With the exception of the Cincinnati game in which Cincy lost their QB and lost the game, UCONN basically lost to everybody they were suppose to lose to. The rest of their wins came against teams with losing records. Unlike last season, UCONN starts this year out with 3 pretty tough games at Ohio (possible MAC frontrunner), North Carolina and then at Baylor. All improved teams who will more than likely have winning records this year. Then they have to go to Pitt, WV, Cincy (revenge game for Bearcats) and Notre Dame. The only winnable games this year will be against Ohio, Louisville, Syracuse, Rhode Island. In order to get to 7 wins and beat this bet they'll have to win those 5 games and then knock off USF and Rutgers at home. With just 12 starters back and coach Edsall going to a new hurry up/no huddle offense, I see struggles on both sides of the ball. Especially since the strength of their team, their defense, will probably be out on the field longer than they're used to under this new system.
Iowa over 8 wins ** (-125)
I've always liked teams who were so consistent and so good on defense that even the games they lost were close games. In their 4 losses last season, Iowa never got beat by more than 5 points. And now return the bulk of their team. They lose Greene, but retain most of their defense, QB and a very good special teams unit. They do have 3 tough games at penn St., OSU and Michigan St. But I believe the rest of their games are very winnable. And I also think the Hawkeyes are going to upset either PSU or OSU and send this conference into a 2 or 3 way tie. 9 or 10 wins looks very doable to me.
Missouri under 7.5 wins ** (-225)
I think the house of cards are going to come crumbling down for this team this year. With just 9 starters back, they lose too many longtime 3 and 4 year starters who were the real backbone of this team. My personal belief is that the team leadership from veterans like Chase Daniel, Chase Coffman, and the early departure of Jeremy Machlin can not be repalced in one season. These guys are the glue that held this team together despite having what i consider a mediocre coach. Plus Mizzou will be dealing with the departures of their OC and DC's this season. So they will definitely be starting over. Plus they get only 6 true home games this season bookend by two neutral site games to start and end the season against what will be two good teams in Illinois and Kansas. I have to admit, I'm not 100% sure what to expect from this team. There are so many people on these boards talking negative about them, that this alone could be enough incentive for this team to win a game or two that they aren't supposed to win. But i also think they could lose a couple that they'll be favored in. Maybe at Nevada and at home to Nebraska. But with just 9 starters back and a new QB I think even if they had a great coach in their corner, 8 games wouldn't be easy to make.
That's it for now. I'm still looking at a couple more teams. Arkansas for one. But I haven't seen this team listed in any of my books.
** Small Play
*** Medium Play
**** Large Play (Best Bet)
USC under 10.5 wins ** (-150)
It's always a big gamble to bet against this team. But the combination of losing 9 starters on defense combined with being in the the tough year of their Pac-10 schedule has me thinking they lose at least one game, maybe two in conference. Or possibly one out of conference (Ohio State or Notre Dame) and one in conference.
Texas Tech under 8 wins *** (-180)
Even VHT QB Graham Harrell struggled in his first year at Tech. Espeically in his road games. So I see QB Potts going through the same growing pains. And I see all 5 TT road games as probable losses. And if you think the OU defense got to Harrell, wait until they get a hold of this new QB. So that game will also be a loss. Even if TT can get by non-BCS Houston early in the season, they'll still need to beat Baylor at Jerry's World in Arlington in the last game of the year to even get to 8 wins. And TT had all kinds of problems with Baylor last season after OU softened the Red Raiders up the week before. TT loses a couple excellent lockdown covers in their defensive backfield. Plus they lost yet another starter on the D-Line in the offseason. So without a pass rush and inexperiece in the D-Backfield, they may not even get past Kansas and their dangerous QB Reesing when they come calling in Lubbock. TT just barely becomes bowl eligible this season going 6-6 or 7-5 at best.
Auburn under 7.5 wins *** (-225)
Although a rule not set in stone, the longer a coach was in one place like Tuberville was at Auburn, the harder it is to put in a new system. And another thing that none of us are sure of is if Gene Chizik is a step up or a step down from Tuberville. In any case, that's a lot of ifs. And despite starting their first 4 games at home, their games with La Tech and West Va are far from gimmes. I can this team winning as many as 7 games this year. But i can also see them going 4-8. It's probably going to end up somewhere in between.
Arizona St. under 6.5 wins ** (-120)
Although I have great respect for Dennis Erickson, and he sounded very positive when I recently saw him interviewed about this upcoming season, I think it's their schedule and the general improvement of the rest of the Pac-10 teams under USC that is probably going to be their undoing this season. What makes me negative about this team is they basically had everything go their way last season and couldn't get it done. They benefited from +5 TO margin and lost very few players to injury. So there was basically no excuses for their 5-7 record. They basically have the same kind of schedule this year, but with the exception of Washington St, every road team they play this season will be improved over last. I still think this play will be close. If it was at 6 instead of 6.5 I wouldn't have played it.
Texas over 10 wins ** (-155)
I can see Texas losing to OU or OSU, but not both. Missouri would have to be considered a game of concern since it will be a sandwich game between OU and OSU. But Texas has traditionally played very well the week after the Red River Rivalry. The only other road game where they'll have to bring their B game or better will be at Baylor. But Texas wins 10 games pretty much every year. The worst outcome i can see for this bet is a tie. Their easy non-conference shcedule where they can rest up their first unit players and give their reserves much needed playing time will only help this team and make them stronger going into Big 12 play. But if Colt McCoy goes down all bets are off.
UCONN under 6.5 wins (-240)
Even though they went 8-5 last season, UCONN really wasn't all that strong of a team. With the exception of the Cincinnati game in which Cincy lost their QB and lost the game, UCONN basically lost to everybody they were suppose to lose to. The rest of their wins came against teams with losing records. Unlike last season, UCONN starts this year out with 3 pretty tough games at Ohio (possible MAC frontrunner), North Carolina and then at Baylor. All improved teams who will more than likely have winning records this year. Then they have to go to Pitt, WV, Cincy (revenge game for Bearcats) and Notre Dame. The only winnable games this year will be against Ohio, Louisville, Syracuse, Rhode Island. In order to get to 7 wins and beat this bet they'll have to win those 5 games and then knock off USF and Rutgers at home. With just 12 starters back and coach Edsall going to a new hurry up/no huddle offense, I see struggles on both sides of the ball. Especially since the strength of their team, their defense, will probably be out on the field longer than they're used to under this new system.
Iowa over 8 wins ** (-125)
I've always liked teams who were so consistent and so good on defense that even the games they lost were close games. In their 4 losses last season, Iowa never got beat by more than 5 points. And now return the bulk of their team. They lose Greene, but retain most of their defense, QB and a very good special teams unit. They do have 3 tough games at penn St., OSU and Michigan St. But I believe the rest of their games are very winnable. And I also think the Hawkeyes are going to upset either PSU or OSU and send this conference into a 2 or 3 way tie. 9 or 10 wins looks very doable to me.
Missouri under 7.5 wins ** (-225)
I think the house of cards are going to come crumbling down for this team this year. With just 9 starters back, they lose too many longtime 3 and 4 year starters who were the real backbone of this team. My personal belief is that the team leadership from veterans like Chase Daniel, Chase Coffman, and the early departure of Jeremy Machlin can not be repalced in one season. These guys are the glue that held this team together despite having what i consider a mediocre coach. Plus Mizzou will be dealing with the departures of their OC and DC's this season. So they will definitely be starting over. Plus they get only 6 true home games this season bookend by two neutral site games to start and end the season against what will be two good teams in Illinois and Kansas. I have to admit, I'm not 100% sure what to expect from this team. There are so many people on these boards talking negative about them, that this alone could be enough incentive for this team to win a game or two that they aren't supposed to win. But i also think they could lose a couple that they'll be favored in. Maybe at Nevada and at home to Nebraska. But with just 9 starters back and a new QB I think even if they had a great coach in their corner, 8 games wouldn't be easy to make.
That's it for now. I'm still looking at a couple more teams. Arkansas for one. But I haven't seen this team listed in any of my books.
